Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

glad to see that for our carib friend Haïti.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
316 PM AST WED MAR 31 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...BEFORE RIDGE GRADUALLY FLATTENS AND BREAKS DOWN
LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A PRE-FRONTAL SHEAR LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
QUICKLY MOVING COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN
IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
PROBABLY EARLY THURSDAY. AS PRE-FRONTAL SHEAR LINE APPROACHES
DURING THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISLAND EFFECTS SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR LATER THURSDAY
AND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN...POSSIBLY A BRIEF "DRIER" BREAK
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER
FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING A GENERAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...BUT NO LONG LASTING...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS FORESEEN. A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS STILL INDICATED FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ALONG WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH
31/23Z...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF SITES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY
BECOME MORE NORTHEAST THURSDAY AND NORTH BY FRIDAY...WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES AFTER 31/23Z
WITH ONLY A VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD...NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN ROUGH AND
HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT A NEW
SURGE OF LONG PERIOD...NORTH SWELLS TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES SATURDAY AND THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...LIKELY PRODUCING A NEW ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES.

ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE REMINDED THAT THESE LONG
PERIOD...NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY
DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS...AND SHOULD BE
TAKEN VERY SERIOUSLY. BEFORE GOING INTO THE WATER THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...PLEASE CHECK
WITH LOCAL OFFICIALS AND HEED ALL ADVISORIES AND RECOMMENDATIONS.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DURING THIS LONG SPELL OF VERY DRY WEATHER...ALL
LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE AGAIN REMINDED...TO PLEASE USE
EXTRA CAUTION WITH ANY OUTDOOR FIRES AND SAFELY DISCARD ANY
FLAMMABLE MATERIALS. LOCAL FIRE DANGERS ARE STEADILY INCREASING.

[tropicana]

Regional Weather Summary
Wed Mar 31 2010

Today's Highs and rain (if any)

Piarco, Trinidad 35.0C 95F
Crown Point, Tobago 32.1C 90F trace
Point Salines, Grenada 31.9F 90F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 31.9C 90F
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 31.4C 88F
Hewanorra, St Lucia 31.5C 89F
Vigie, St Lucia 32.2C 90F trace
Melville Hall, Dominica 31.0C 88F
Canefield, Dominica 33.4C 92F
Le Lamentin, Martinique 31.4C 88F 0.6mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 32.0C 90F 0.2mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 30.8C 87F 2.6mm
West End, Anguilla 29.7C 86F
VC Bird, Antigua 30.7C 87F 0.2mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 31.7C 89F trace

Hato, Curacao 32.8C 91F
Flamingo, Bonaire 30.5C 87F
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 32.6C 91F

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 28.2C 83F
Norman Manley, Jamaica 31.0C 88F 2.0mm
Sangster, Montego Bay, Jamaica 31.6C 89F trace
Nassau, Bahamas 25.3C 77F
Hamilton, Bermuda 21.5C 71F

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Updated discussion.It looks like some showers are in the picture for this weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1111 PM AST WED MAR 31 2010

.UPDATE...SOUNDING SHOWED BEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN 96 HOURS AS
TOP OF MOIST LAYER RISES TO 8400 FEET AND SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO AND JUST OFFSHORE FROM ARECIBO. MODELS SHOW
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BAND HOLDING OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST
02/21Z...BUT MOISTURE AT HIGHER LEVELS...SUCH AS 600 MB SUGGEST
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE JUST AFTER 01/18Z AND FRONTAL PASSAGE
SHOULD BE 00Z FRIDAY IN SAN JUAN. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE MAY BE DUE TO
TENUOUS CONNECTION WITH VERY ACTIVE WEATHER IN NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. HAVE UPDATED MAJORITY OF GRIDS IN FAVOR OF SLIGHTLY
BETTER POPS EACH DAY. AND EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO LINGER
THROUGH FRIDAY. ACTIVITY WILL BE DELAYED FOR SAINT CROIX WHICH
SHOULD EXPERIENCE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BOTH AT 18Z THURSDAY
AND AT 18Z FRIDAY. AND...AT 200 MB...THE GFS IS SHOWING JUST OVER
100 KNOTS OF WIND IN A WEST SOUTHWEST JET ENTRANCE FRIDAY NIGHT
THAT SHOULD ENHANCE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHATEVER MANAGES TO
BREAK THROUGH...WHAT IS NOW A FAIRLY STRONG CAP. ALTHOUGH WINDS
ARE NOT NOW STRONG BEHIND THIS FRONT THEY TURN NORTHERLY AFTER
SEA BREEZE ONSET ON THE NORTH COAST THURSDAY...IN PART DUE TO THE
EARLIER PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL SHEAR LINE...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
DO NOT RETURN TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE NEAR FUTURE. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BRING IN A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS...BUT AT THE SAME TIME
WILL INTRODUCE CONSIDERABLE COOLING...THE COMBINATION WHICH COULD
ALSO RESULT IN SOME OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS ON THE NORTH COAST FRIDAY
AND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT...18Z RUN...OF THE GFS ALSO
SHOWS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE NORTH COAST OF THE PUERTO RICO ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THIS HEIGHTENED CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BE
DUE TO THE ELONGATION OF THE LOW...READ TROUGHING...EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW WHICH HAS SPONSORED THIS FAST FLYING FRONT...AND THE
MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE LOW. IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE MORE CERTAIN
THAN CHANCE AS FAR OUT AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT IT DESERVES A
MENTION FOR THOSE WHO MIGHT BE EXPECTING COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS
...ESPECIALLY THOSE WHO HAVE BEEN ENJOYING THE RECENTLY DRY DAYS
IN SAN JUAN.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL
TAF SITES THROUGH 01/16Z IN ESE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TOMORROW...AND SHRA DEVELOPMENT OVER
CORDILLERA CENTRAL WILL RESULT IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJPS AFT 01/16Z. COLD
FRONT WILL INCREASE SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS TJBQ...TJSJ AND TIST AFT
01/22Z AND WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH 02/12Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...CONSIDERABLE RAIN FELL IN CIALES AND MOROVIS AND
OTHER INTERIOR PUERTO RICO LOCATIONS. THIS PRODUCED LITTLE
RESPONSE IN THE LOCAL RIVER AND NO KNOWN FLOODING. ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ON THURSDAY AND BETTER LIFTING MAY PRODUCE MORE VIGOROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL FLOODING OF URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...WITH SWELL OF 8 FEET AND PERIODS REACHING 15
SECONDS...COULD NOT DROP HIGH SURF ADVISORY...SO IT HAS BEEN
EXTENDED TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO THE FACT
THAT MODELS DROP SWELL VERY LITTLE AT BUOY 41043 UNTIL THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 AM AST THU APR 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD AND AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN/ERODE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATED SUBTROPICAL JET MAX NOW AT BASE OF TROUGH AND
JUST NORTH OF LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING...SUGGESTING TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARDS INTO THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY
FRIDAY MORNING...WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT
MAX NOW MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA DIGS SOUTH ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
FURTHER AMPLIFIES THE L/W TROUGH WHICH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...MOISTURE ALONG A WEAK
CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM AN OLDER FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WHILE A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR LINE NOW MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE FAIRLY LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FLOW
TO QUICKLY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
COOLER/DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...AND REACH PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL AREAS OF
PUERTO RICO AND SOME OF THE ADJACENT ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL CLEARING LATER IN THE
MORNING. HOWEVER...EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CAUSED
BY THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE AND PROXIMITY OF MID
TO UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH PRESENCE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SUBTROPICAL
JET MAX...TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AT THIS TIME WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED FOR TODAY.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FAVORABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH
ACROSS THE REGION NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...WITH
QUICK PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONTAL REMNANTS...AND RAPID IMPROVEMENT
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTH. DO HOWEVER FAVOR THAT THE MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CREATE ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO BRING SOME EARLY
MORNING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTH COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND MOSTLY THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES DURING THE DAYTIME.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL
TAF SITES THROUGH 01/16Z IN ENE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TODAY...AND SHRA DEVELOPMENT OVER
CORDILLERA CENTRAL WILL RESULT IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND TEMPORARY
MVFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS TJMZ AND TJPS AFT 01/16Z. PASSING
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS TJBQ...TJSJ
AND TIST AFT 01/22Z AND WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH 02/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
RECENT DATA FROM BUOY 41043 AND SHIP REPORTS CONTINUED TO
SUGGEST SWELL ACTION BETWEEN 6 TO 8 FEET AND PERIODS NEAR 14 SECONDS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. USING THIS INFO ALONG
WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND /SWELL ARRIVAL CALCULATIONS...DECIDED
TO CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING HIGH SURF ADVISORY WHICH IS IN
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...PENDING FURTHER REPORTS
DURING THE DAY.

[Gustywind]

Updates from the Islands -- - Culebra (PR) - -
- Culebra Rainfall Data, 1st Quarter
By William Kunke <wkunke787 at yahoo.com>
Date: Thu, 1 Apr 2010 05:09:13 -0700 (PDT)


Good Morning, Attached please find rainfall data of the first three months for Culebra, PR. It shows a bit below average rainfall for this period, with right at average for March. Culebra is very dry now with above average temps and winds. We wish all the islands more moisture soon.
Bill's Daily Notes & Photos:
http://islandculebra.livejournal.com/

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Updates from the Islands -- - Culebra (PR) - -
- Culebra Rainfall Data, 1st Quarter
By William Kunke <wkunke787 at yahoo.com>
Date: Thu, 1 Apr 2010 05:09:13 -0700 (PDT)


Good Morning, Attached please find rainfall data of the first three months for Culebra, PR. It shows a bit below average rainfall for this period, with right at average for March. Culebra is very dry now with above average temps and winds. We wish all the islands more moisture soon.
Bill's Daily Notes & Photos:
http://islandculebra.livejournal.com/

Gusty,very good Culebra site that you brought to our tent.And that little island is too in the drought situation that other islands have.

[Gustywind]

Updates from the Islands -- - Culebra (PR) - -
- Culebra Rainfall Data, 1st Quarter
By William Kunke <wkunke787 at yahoo.com>
Date: Thu, 1 Apr 2010 05:09:13 -0700 (PDT)


Good Morning, Attached please find rainfall data of the first three months for Culebra, PR. It shows a bit below average rainfall for this period, with right at average for March. Culebra is very dry now with above average temps and winds. We wish all the islands more moisture soon.
Bill's Daily Notes & Photos:
http://islandculebra.livejournal.com/

Gusty,very good Culebra site that you brought to our tent.And that little island is too in the drought situation that other islands have.

Ok thanks Cycloneye , glad to see your enthusiam, i appreciate. I try to push myself everyday for our tent, because i love all my friends !. See you soon on the board...
Regards
Gustywind

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
334 PM AST THU APR 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AND
BREAK DOWN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DIG ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. PRE-FRONTAL SHEAR LINE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
QUICKLY MOVING COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS VERY LATE TONIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GREATLY WEAKENED CAP...VERY GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...LOCAL EFFECTS AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL VENTILATION
ALLOWED CONVECTION TO GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON. ONGOING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL SOUTH AND
EAST MAY LINGER FOR AWHILE AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY AROUND
SUNSET. THEREAFTER...EXPECT A BRIEF "DRIER" BREAK EARLY TONIGHT
...ALTHOUGH STILL WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...BEFORE
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT...BUT ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS...BUT STILL DO NOT EXPECT ANY LONG LASTING...HEAVY
RAINFALL. A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS STILL INDICATED FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER STILL EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH A FEW PASSING CLOUD BANDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA ALONG
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL SOUTH AND EAST...WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT
IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS TJMZ AND TJPS THROUGH 01/23Z. PASSING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS TJBQ...TJSJ AND TIST
AFTER 01/23Z AND WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH 02/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SLOWLY SUBSIDING...LONG PERIOD...NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT...MAINTAINING LOCALLY
ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS. A NEW SURGE OF LONG PERIOD...
NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES EARLY SATURDAY...PEAK LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THESE SWELLS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. ALL LOCAL
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE REMINDED TO USE EXTRA CAUTION IF
VENTURING OUT INTO THE WATER...AND KEEP SMALL CHILDREN AND PETS
AWAY FROM THE SURF ZONE.

THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF DANGEROUS
SURF CONDITIONS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS...WITH HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AGAIN.

THEREFORE...IT IS ADVISED THAT BEFORE GOING INTO THE WATER
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...YOU SHOULD CHECK ON CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL OFFICIALS AND
HEED ALL ADVISORIES AND RECOMMENDATIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DURING THIS LONG SPELL OF DRY WEATHER AND THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE AGAIN
REMINDED...TO PLEASE USE EXTRA CAUTION WITH ANY OUTDOOR FIRES AND
SAFELY DISCARD ANY FLAMMABLE MATERIALS. LOCAL FIRE DANGERS HAVE
BEEN STEADILY INCREASING.

[cycloneye]

Evening discussion by NWS San Juan


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
900 PM AST THU APR 1 2010

.UPDATE...SENT AN UPDATE TO THE ZONES FOR THE SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST
TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE ISLAND AS WELL AS THE VI OVERNIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO FLARE UP AS THE CONVERGENCE OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND LAND BREEZE COMING OFF THE ISLAND CONVERGE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN
USVI...WILL ALSO HELP PLAY A ROLE IN PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND USVI OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT THE ACTUAL FRONT ITSELF TO REACH
NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...PUSHING RAPIDLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WENT AHEAD AND UPPED THE
POPS AND CLOUD COVER A BIT FOR TOMORROW AS WELL. NO CHANGES MADE
TO EXTENDED FORECAST AS MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN
TO MORE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DOMINATE BEHIND THIS
APPROACHING FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...THE PRE-FRONTAL SHEAR LINE WAS OVER TIST AT 02/0030Z AND
WILL MOVE TO VCNTY TISX BY 02/12Z. THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW AND IS
EXPECTED TO REACH PUERTO RICO FRIDAY MORNING...AND TISX BEFORE
03/06Z. SHWRS AND MVFR CONDS ARE NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-
FRONTAL SHEAR LINE AND SHWRS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING OVER THE ISLANDS THAT WILL ALSO CREATE MVFR
CIGS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS. LOWER VSBYS WILL BE BRIEF IN INTENSE
SHWRS. EXPECT IMPVMT BTWN 02/15Z AND 02/21Z AS MODELS ARE NOT IN
PERFECT AGREEMENT. ISOLD TSTMS ARE PSBL PRIOR TO 02/15Z. VFR CONDS
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD IN THE AREA AFT 03/00Z. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS
DELAY IN SEQUENCE OF EVENTS FOR TNCM AND TKPK. LOW LVL FLOW OF
5-15 KTS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY OVER ENTIRE AREA BY 02/12Z AS IT
NOW IS OVER TJSJ AND MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER NEAR TJBQ AND TJMZ.

[tropicana]

Regional Weather Summary
Thu Apr 01 2010

Today's Highs and rain (if any)

Piarco, Trinidad 35.0C 95F
Crown Point, Tobago 31.8C 89F
Point Salines, Grenada 30.8C 87F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 31.2C 88F
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 31.4C 88F
Hewanorra, St Lucia 31.9C 90F
Vigie, St Lucia 32.5C 91F
Melville Hall, Dominica 30.6C 87F
Canefield, Dominica 31.0C 88F
Le Lamentin, Martinique 31.7C 89F
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 32.5C 91F
Golden Rock, St Kitts 31.1C 88F
VC Bird, Antigua 30.5C 87F 6.1mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 30.6C 87F

Hato, Curacao 32.0C 90F
Flamingo, Bonaire 30.6C 87F
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 33.0C 92F

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 28.9C 84F
Norman Manley, Jamaica 32.9C 91F
Sangster, Montego Bay, Jamaica 30.5C 87F 4.0mm
Nassau, Bahamas 25.2C 77F
Hamilton, Bermuda 18.8C 66F 4.0mm

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.A late weak cold front moving thru Puerto Rico today.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST FRI APR 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS FLATTENED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN AND WILL CONTINUED TO ERODE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
AS THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION...AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH/SHEAR LINE NOW BETWEEN PUERTO RICO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS WILL SINK FURTHER SOUTHEAST AS BAND OF MOISTURE ALONG A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE
TO QUICKLY SINK SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE DAY...AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THIS WILL FURTHER INDUCE A FAIRLY
STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING WILL AID ON SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG THE NORTH HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE REST OF THE
ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE PREVAILING NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OVERALL EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND DUE TO THE PASSING
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...AT THE MOMENT STILL DO NOT FORESEE WIDESPREAD
OR LONG LASTING CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THEREFORE...A
MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS IS STILL FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR THE SOME CLOUDINESS AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
INDUCED BY COOL AIR ADVECTION AND THE MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK... WITH A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL AND
LOCAL TERRAIN INDUCED ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF
SITES THROUGH MOST OF FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ...TJMZ THROUGH 02/12Z AND THROUGH 02/18Z
FOR TJPS...TIST..TISX AS REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE TOWARD
THE SOUTH AND ACROSS AND THROUGH LOCAL ISLANDS.

[abajan]

Barbados has been getting thick Sahel dust haze for the past couple of days. If there's one weather condition I hate it's haze! (I know it's pretty normal for this time of year but I don't like it at all.)
Are most of the other islands experiencing a lot of haze too?

[Gustywind]

Barbados has been getting thick Sahel dust haze for the past couple of days. If there's one weather condition I hate it's haze! (I know it's pretty normal for this time of year but I don't like it at all.)
Are most of the other islands experiencing a lot of haze too?

Yeah absolutely Abajan, Guadeloupe is concerned too by this haze episode, there's a lot too, i can confim that.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 021452
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1052 AM AST FRI APR 2 2010

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS WERE DETECTED MAINLY OVER SAINT
THOMAS...HOWEVER...LITTLE ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED.
WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH AT 10 T 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING INTERMITTENT
PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SUN. THESE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE ISLANDS BY TONIGHT. MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...THE LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS THAT
HAD BEEN AFFECTING THE AREA HAVE CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...RIP
CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR BEACH GOERS
ALONG ALL NORTH FACING COASTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LOCAL
OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...
DUE TO SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ELSEWHERE.

$$

[cycloneye]

Barbados has been getting thick Sahel dust haze for the past couple of days. If there's one weather condition I hate it's haze! (I know it's pretty normal for this time of year but I don't like it at all.)
Are most of the other islands experiencing a lot of haze too?

Hi my friend.Well,what you are seeing is not haze from Africa but are high clouds streaming from the SW over Barbados.

[Gustywind]

No more doubts Abajan, saying HAZE is an euphemisma here are the latest news from your beautiful island of Barbados:
Current Weather Conditions:
Grantley Adams, Barbados
(TBPB) 13-04N 059-29W 56M

Conditions at Apr 02, 2010 - 11:00 AM EDTApr 02, 2010
Wind from the ESE (120 degrees) at 15 MPH (13 KT)
Visibility 4 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature 86 F (30 C)
Heat index 91.8 F (33.2 C)
Dew Point 71 F (22 C)
Relative Humidity 62%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.91 in. Hg (1013 hPa)
ob TBPB 021500Z 12013KT 7000 FEW018 BKN310 30/22 Q1013

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 11 AM (15) Apr 02 86 (30) 71 (22) 29.91 (1013) ESE 15
10 AM (14) Apr 02 84 (29) 71 (22) 29.91 (1013) ESE 14
9 AM (13) Apr 02 84 (29) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) ESE 12
8 AM (12) Apr 02 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) E 13
7 AM (11) Apr 02 80 (27) 69 (21) 29.85 (1011) E 12 haze
6 AM (10) Apr 02 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.85 (1011) E 12 haze
5 AM (9) Apr 02 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.85 (1011) E 10 haze
4 AM (8) Apr 02 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.83 (1010) E 10 haze
3 AM (7) No Data
2 AM (6) Apr 02 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.85 (1011) E 9 haze
1 AM (5) Apr 02 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.85 (1011) ESE 10 haze
Midnight (4) Apr 02 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) E 6 haze
11 PM (3) Apr 01 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) E 7 haze
10 PM (2) Apr 01 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) ENE 5 haze
9 PM (1) Apr 01 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) E 7 haze
8 PM (0) Apr 01 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.85 (1011) E 9 haze
7 PM (23) Apr 01 80 (27) 71 (22) 29.85 (1011) E 8 haze
6 PM (22) Apr 01 80 (27) 71 (22) 29.85 (1011) E 8 haze
5 PM (21) Apr 01 84 (29) 71 (22) 29.85 (1011) ESE 10 haze
4 PM (20) No Data
3 PM (19) Apr 01 86 (30) 69 (21) 29.85 (1011) ESE 14 haze
2 PM (18) Apr 01 87 (31) 73 (23) 29.88 (1012) ESE 14 haze
1 PM (17) Apr 01 87 (31) 71 (22) 29.91 (1013) ESE 14 haze
Oldest Noon (16) Apr 01 86 (30) 71 (22) 29.91 (1013) ESE 15 haze
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F(C) Dew Point
F(C) Pressure
Inches(hPa) Wind
(MPH) Weather --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


The information presented here is taken from products produced by the U.S. National Weather Service and other national and international agencies

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

Important paragrafh about possible fires as the dry air takes control here.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
317 PM AST FRI APR 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND AWAY FROM
THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON ON NORTH WINDS AND BEHIND A CDFNT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. QUIET AND CLEAR TONIGHT BUT INFLOW
OF COLD/POLAR AIR INTO THE REGION ON BACKSIDE OF CUTOFF LOW WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT A STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH PERHAPS
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS. BELIEVE THIS WILL
REMAIN TOO FAR OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND NOT AFFECT ANY LAND AREAS.
BETTER CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ALG THE ATLC COAST EARLY
SUN MORNING AND THE DAYS AFTER THAT. STRONG CAP WILL INHIBIT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOONS.
REALLY PERFECT WX AS TEMPS EXPECTED NEAR CLIMO WITH LOW HUMIDITY.
NO 90`S IN SIGHT FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

OF GREATER CONCERN IS INCREASING FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL NEXT WEEK AS
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO DRY FUELS. SOME FIRES HAVE DEVELOPED
RECENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PR AND ST. CROIX. PLEASE REFER TO FIRE WX
SECTION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.MARINE...MODELS SEEM TO BE BRINGING THE SWELL TOO FAST INTO OUR
ATLC WATERS. OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 41049 ABOUT 654 NM TO THE NNE
OF SAN JUAN SHOW 2.5 METER SWELLS AT 10 SECS. SWELL TRAVEL TIME
NOMOGRAM SUGGESTS THIS WILL TAKE ANOTHER 24 HRS TO GET HERE. SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON HIGH SURF AS THERE IS STILL TIME TO MONITOR BUOY
OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN RULE
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND MOST OF NEXT WEEK. FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AS WINDS STAY UP IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS THE GROUND AT ST.
CROIX AND THE SRN COAST IS PRETTY MUCH ALL BROWN. ALL LOCAL
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE REMINDED...TO PLEASE USE EXTRA CAUTION
WITH ANY OUTDOOR FIRES AND SAFELY DISCARD ANY FLAMMABLE MATERIALS.