SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[JenBayles]

Front sure is getting its act together around the Red River and down to Dallas. Just BOOM. Not looking forward to tomorrow morning.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
904 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2009

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-261100-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
904 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2009

...A WET AND STORMY WEEK EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHLAND...

A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING HEAVY AND
PROLONGED RAINS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS RAIN WILL CROSS THE SABINE RIVER INTO LOUISIANA MONDAY
EVENING. THE CULPRIT WILL BE A COMBINATION OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE TEXAS COAST...DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE GULF...AND A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY A STRONG JET STREAM.

AFTER THE FIRST WAVE OF ROUGH WEATHER MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY,
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REPEAT THE PROCESS OVER THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. POTENTIAL RAINFALL FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES. CONSIDERING AREAS
STILL DRAINING FROM LAST WEEK`S RAINS, FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK.

[srainhoutx]

Updated Flood Watch Discussion from HGX...a bit more bullish on rainfall totals...

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
958 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2009

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-261100-
/O.CON.KHGX.FF.A.0001.091026T1200Z-091027T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
958 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...
JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...
SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON AND
WHARTON.

* FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING

* EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA ADDING
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 4 TO
7 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS WILL CAUSE GROUNDS TO BECOME QUICKLY
SATURATED AND LEAD TO FLOODING ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS TRAIN
ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PERSIST INTO MONDAY
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

* RUNOFF FROM ANY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL
IMPACT SWOLLEN RIVERS...STREAMS AND CREEKS. THIS MAY CAUSE
ADDITIONAL RISES IN RIVERS AND MORE RIVER FLOODING.

[vbhoutex]

If what is going on in the Dallas Metro area is any indication of what we may get I DON'T LIKE IT!!

[southerngale]

Flood Watch issued here now as well.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
355 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2009

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE.

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-262100-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FF.A.0002.091026T0855Z-091027T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
355 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN LOUISIANA...
ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...
CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...
LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST.
MARTIN...VERMILION AND VERNON. IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...ORANGE AND TYLER.

* THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING AND MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA FROM TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF GULF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CAUSE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO
7 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND HIGHEST FLOOD
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE
JASPER AND BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR AREAS.

* THIS HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS CREEKS AND SMALL STREAMS. PERSONS
LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

Updated Flood Watch Houston NWS

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
410 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2009

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-262100-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FF.A.0001.091026T1100Z-091027T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
410 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...
JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...
SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON AND
WHARTON.

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE FINALLY
PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA ADDING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS
WILL CAUSE GROUNDS TO BECOME QUICKLY SATURATED AND LEAD TO
FLOODING ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

* RUNOFF FROM ANY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL
IMPACT SWOLLEN RIVERS...STREAMS AND CREEKS. THIS MAY CAUSE
ADDITIONAL RISES IN RIVERS AND MORE RIVER FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...
CHECK PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY
FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS
ISSUED.

&&

$$

[southerngale]

Intellicast TX/SW LA Radar Loop

NWS Lake Charles Radar Loop

NWS Houston Radar Loop

Wunderground Radar Loop SE TX
Zoom in wherever you want on the map.

Wunderground Radar Loop Extreme SE TX/SW LA

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff...

Powerful upper level storm system approaching the area this morning….will bring widespread heavy rainfall to the region today.



Radar already busy with numerous thunderstorms in progress. Frontal boundary entering our northern counties and slowing down while 250mb venting in the upper levels enhances ascent over SE TX leading to development moving S to N ahead of the main line. Moisture levels continue to increase with PWS closing in on 2.0 inches the threat for high intensity short duration rainfall rates is high. Expect hourly rainfall rates of 2-3 inches under the strongest cells.



Frontal boundary will slow as it moves southward into the region today as upper level become increasingly parallel to the boundary leading to cell training. Training of cells in this very moist air mass is cause for concern.



Widespread rainfall of 1-3 inches with isolated amounts of 4-7 inches will be possible.



We get 2 dry days Tues-Wed before the next weather event arrives Thursday. Models have trended slower with this system with rain chances starting Thursday and continuing into Friday evening. Pattern looks troublesome given stalling boundary near the coast and tremendous moisture advection over top of the boundary. GFS hammers away with very large QPF values…will take a wait and see approach for now given this is still a few days off and today will take first priority.

[vbhoutex]

Getting reports of torrential downpours and some hail in the Magnolia and Tomball areas of NW Houston. Radar is LIT UP!! Looks like a long day for some people in our area.

edit(8:15am)Now getting reports of 40-50 mph winds in some of the storms.

[srainhoutx]

Not so good news from Nesdis as it appears the line is slowing down...

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/26/09 1239Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1215Z JS
.
LOCATION...SE TEXAS/SW LOUISIANA...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG FRONT AT THIS TIME MAKING STEADY PROGRESS
TO THE SE WITH LARGE SHIELD OF OVERRUNNING RAINS BEHIND IT.
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SURFACE METAR OBS ALONG WITH AUTOMATED
SATELLITE ESTIMATING TECHNIQUES ARE SHOWING GENERALLY 1-2" MAX RAINS IN
AN HOUR OR SO ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS S
AND E TX. ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT IS BEING ENHANCED AT TIMES BY CELLS
FORMING OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE AND MERGING INTO THE LINE. IR ANIMATION IS
DEPICTING THIS SCENARIO WITH SCATTERED CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE AND MOIST
S AND SE INFLOW INTO THE LINE WITH ENHANCED CU MOVING IN FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THE EXPERIMENTAL BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
IS INDICATING AROUND 1.75" MAX PW VALUES SPREADING INLAND ACROSS SE
TX. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS LARGE TROF IN THE SW US/NW MEXICO CONTINUES
TO AMPLIFY WITH OVERRUNNING INCREASING AS MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES RIDE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE AREA ESPECIALLY
FROM SE TX INTO SW LA DURING THE MORNING TO SEE IF THE SFC BOUNDARY SLOWS
DOWN ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT LONGER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL. AN ANNOTATED
SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE MAIN THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON
THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES.

[JenBayles]

We are not amused with today's radar.

[edit]: Gulp. Major wind gusts just blew the corrugated metal top off a play fort behind our house. It sailed thru the air and whacked our garage. Wind is howling down the chimney too.

[JenBayles]

Extremely heavy rain here in Bear Creek. My guess is about 1.5" per hour - or more.

[srainhoutx]

Strong cells in W Harris/ FT Bend and Waller Counties where merger from inflow storms are occurring.

Edit to add I will not be surprised to see Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisories issued for Harris and Ft Bend Counties shortly.

[HouTXmetro]

There has to be flooding occuring already. That's some heavey convection moving in.

[southerngale]

It's pouring and very windy here!

[HouTXmetro]

Northwest side has just been getting hammered. Are there any reports of flooding?

[JenBayles]

Tell me I'm not seeing training begin to set up in the line between west Harris count and Victoria?

[JenBayles]

Northwest side has just been getting hammered. Are there any reports of flooding?

Not yet here in Bear Creek - thank God. We're getting a little break but it's still pitch black out there.

[vbhoutex]

AT least 1"/hour here since we are up over an inch in less than an hour. Minor street flooding appears to be starting, but nothing severe yet. As Steve said, an urban and small stream flood advisory appears to be almost certain.

I am hoping you are incorrect on the training setting up Jen!! It definitely has to be watched now as it appears to be a possibility. If we are lucky the front will move on through and not slow down. Rain has let up some here, but is still coming down hard enough.

[JenBayles]

Crossing my fingers and toes here David! I'm also amazed at how much overrunning filled in behind the front overnight. Last time I check radar last night the line was around Dallas. When I looked this morning just as it reached NW Harris County, it was STILL raining from Brownwood to Dallas.

[srainhoutx]

HPC has Updated and now has us in a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall...



EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1010 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2009

...VALID 15Z MON OCT 26 2009 - 12Z TUE OCT 27 2009...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
CWF 55 N W60 75 W W60 75 NNW 25T 30 S PSX 20 NNE PKV 30 SSE 3T5
15 SSW 3T5 15 SW 62H 20 NW 62H 30 WSW LHB 25 S CRS 15 S 3T1
15 NW 4F4 20 SE OSA 40 ENE 4F4 15 NW DTN 10 SE BAD IER
20 NNE CWF CWF.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
25 SW DRI 30 WNW LCH 15 E BPT 25 SSE BPT 35 ESE GLS 35 SE LBX
35 SSE LBX 25 SE BYY 10 NNW BYY 20 WNW SGR 10 W DWH 15 WNW DWH
25 ENE UTS 15 SW LFK LFK 25 NNW JAS 20 NE JAS 25 SW DRI.


UPDATE...

THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS DECREASED IN
SIZE ON THE WESTERN END...WITH THE EMPHASIS FOR POTENTIALLY
EXCESSIVE AMTS CONCENTRATED OVR FAR ERN TX/FAR WRN LA. CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING MORE PROGRESSION TO THE WESTERN END OF
THE CONVECTIVE LINE.....WITH THE ERN PORTION OVR FAR ERN TX MOVG
SLOWER. THIS AREA OVER FAR ERN TX/FAR WRN LA IS ALSO WHERE LATEST
MODELS SHOW THE BEST SLY MOIST INFLOW OFF THE WRN GULF...STRONGEST
BNDRY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND FAVORABLE RT ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS THRU MONDAY AND INTO MON NIGHT. WHILE THE PCPN AMTS IN
THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE VARY GREATLY...THERE IS AGRMNT THAT FAR
ERN TX INTO FAR WRN LA WL BE THE MAX PCPN REGION. PCPN AMTS OF 1
TO 2"+ POSSIBLE IN AN HR OR TWO WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 4"+
OVR FAR ERN TO NERN TX.

ORAVEC


...ERN TX/SWRN LA...
UPR TROF EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SPLIT WITH
NRN PORTION OF TROF ACCELERATING EWD ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST AND GT
LAKES..WHILE STGR SRN PORTION PROGRESSES MORE SLOWLY ACRS TX/OK
REGION THRU TUE MORNG. BACKING MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROF SHOULD INDUCE A SFC WAVE ACRS THE WRN GULF COAST MON EVENING
WITH LOW LIFTING GRADUALLY NEWD. THIS SHOULD HELP AID CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SEWD ACRS ERN TX THIS PD
AS WELL AS WITH INVERTED TROF EXTENDING NORTH OF THE LOW. XPC THE
COMBO OF THE INCREASING MSTR/INSTABILITY..WELL DEFINED CNVGNC
VCNTY OF THE SFC FNT..AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE RT ENTRANCE
REGION UPR JET DYNAMICS..TO SUPPORT HEAVY TO PSBL EXCESSIVE RAINS
THRU MUCH OF ERN TX INTO WRN LA..WITH WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH PLUS
AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN AN HR OR TWO WITH LOCAL STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 4 INCHES.

SULLIVAN