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Maybe signs of an early season bowling ball low.
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CaptinCrunch wrote:2017___Oct31
2016___Oct31___87/61/74/11/warmer than average (La Nina/Neutral)
2015___Oct31___68 /59/ 64/ 1/ warmer than average (El Nino)
2014___Oct31___67/ 47/ 57/ -6/ colder than average (El Nino)
2013___Oct31___75/ 54/ 65/ 2/ colder than average (Neutral)
2012___Oct31___83/ 50/ 67/ 4/ warmer than average (Neutral)
2011___Oct31___77/ 46/ 62/ -1/ warmer than average (La Nina)
2010___Oct31___85/ 53/ 69/ 8/ warmer than average (La Nina)
2009___Oct31___74/ 41/ 58/ -3/ colder than average (El Nino)
2008___Oct31___84/ 59/ 72/ 11/ warmer than average (La Nina)
2007___Oct31___81/ 54/ 68/ 7/ warmer than average (La Nina)
2006___Oct31___70/ 45/ 58/ -3/ warmer than average (El Nino)
2005___Oct31___73/ 51/ 62/ 1/ warmer than average (La Nina)
2004___Oct31___84/ 62/ 73/ 12/ warmer than average (El Nino)
2003___Oct31___87/ 72/ 80/ 19/ warmer than average (Neutral)
2002___Oct31___52/ 46/ 49/ -12/ colder than average (El Nino)
Things that make you go hmmmm![]()
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CaptinCrunch wrote:Since it was brought up about a possible cold Halloween, I thought I would toss out a little unscientific, but factual data. As you may or may not know, several years ago I did a thing I called the Halloween analogy. The folklore behind it (mine of course) is that if Halloween was either colder or warmer than normal, then that would tell you how the following Winter would play out. The side bonus was if Halloween was wet it meant a wetter Winter.
So here is Halloween 2002-2016 and what the following winter was like on average. (.05 +/- is average) (1.0 +/- is warmer/colder than avg) Winter 2013/2014 could go average/slightly colder than....![]()
I didn't do the precip averages but the colder winters did tend to be slightly wetter historically.
Year__Halloween__High/Low/Avg/ +/- Following Winter
2017___Oct31
2016___Oct31___87/61/74/11/warmer than average (La Nina/Neutral)
2015___Oct31___68 /59/ 64/ 1/ warmer than average (El Nino)
2014___Oct31___67/ 47/ 57/ -6/ colder than average (El Nino)
2013___Oct31___75/ 54/ 65/ 2/ colder than average (Neutral)
2012___Oct31___83/ 50/ 67/ 4/ warmer than average (Neutral)
2011___Oct31___77/ 46/ 62/ -1/ warmer than average (La Nina)
2010___Oct31___85/ 53/ 69/ 8/ warmer than average (La Nina)
2009___Oct31___74/ 41/ 58/ -3/ colder than average (El Nino)
2008___Oct31___84/ 59/ 72/ 11/ warmer than average (La Nina)
2007___Oct31___81/ 54/ 68/ 7/ warmer than average (La Nina)
2006___Oct31___70/ 45/ 58/ -3/ warmer than average (El Nino)
2005___Oct31___73/ 51/ 62/ 1/ warmer than average (La Nina)
2004___Oct31___84/ 62/ 73/ 12/ warmer than average (El Nino)
2003___Oct31___87/ 72/ 80/ 19/ warmer than average (Neutral)
2002___Oct31___52/ 46/ 49/ -12/ colder than average (El Nino)
Things that make you go hmmmm![]()
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Ntxw wrote:Not a bad 500mb look on the Euro Ensembles. Not an Arctic Outbreak, but we'll take the ridges out west and east of us. Usually translates to unsettled and cool pocket over the southern plains.
Maybe signs of an early season bowling ball low.
CaptinCrunch wrote:NWS Fort Worth F6 data page only went back to 2002 but yeah it was a really warm decade from 2000 thru 2009. However it's odd to see 12 of 15 Winters go the same way that October 31st did based on the daily average. I'm pricing a 1/2 cord this year since it took the last 2 winters just to burn a full cord.![]()
What was consistent were LaNina winters, all warm, while El Nino was 50/50 as well were Neutrals. Look we live in a warm winter region, so I fully expect more times than not we have warm winters. What I as well as you all hate is the extremely warm non-cold and dry winters, just like the last 2 suck ass winter we've experienced.
Brent wrote:bubba hotep wrote:Cold front is moving into the western portions of DFW but, don't worry, the heat will be back next weekend
It never ends apparently. Thats all it ever is around here
bubba hotep wrote:Hmm... Big Texas rain event before full latitude trough sets up across Central US?
When filtering analogs by QBO there does appear to be a risk of this winter being wetter than a typical Nina. However, I'm still bummed ENSO didn't play along with my fav analog from back in March.
Brent wrote:Models starting to agree on a possibly widespread rainfall sometime next weekend into the following week
and still hints of bigger cold right before Halloween
JDawg512 wrote:Well at least festival goers had one cool day for ACL. Up next is Formula 1 U.S. Grand Prix. Would be cool to see a wet race. 2015's race started right as the rains from Patricia ended.
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