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JenBayles wrote:Is that picture at a school? The water must have come up awfully fast for them to even open the schools in the first place. With all the warnings and rain overnight, what were they thinking to even open the doors this morning?!
Glad to hear it was a bust for you SG. Better a bust than a flood. Anyone hear from Jagno?
Addicks Reservoir is pretty darn full. It's a good thing we've got several days of dry weather. One more gullywasher would put Highway 6 under water again. Right now I don't have the heart to look at an extended forecast. When is old El Nino going to die anyway?
vbhoutex wrote:It's a BOO-Ttiful day here in Houston. Hope we have at least a week of this. The low of 46ºf was a little chilly for us, but it is in the 60's on its' way to around 70ºf, so I won't complain. There is a bright orb of some sort in the sky too. Any clues?
my Cowboys my Rockets my Astros
CajunMama wrote:jasons wrote:I haven't checked my rain guage yet...but it sure did rain a lot here!
Love your avatar!
JenBayles wrote:Is that picture at a school? The water must have come up awfully fast for them to even open the schools in the first place. With all the warnings and rain overnight, what were they thinking to even open the doors this morning?!
Glad to hear it was a bust for you SG. Better a bust than a flood. Anyone hear from Jagno?
Addicks Reservoir is pretty darn full. It's a good thing we've got several days of dry weather. One more gullywasher would put Highway 6 under water again. Right now I don't have the heart to look at an extended forecast. When is old El Nino going to die anyway?
breeze wrote:The dry weather looks to end on Sunday as the low pressure in the gulf throws more rain
at east TX and southern LA, spreading up through MS, AL and into TN on Monday.
http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=1&article=3
breeze wrote:The dry weather looks to end on Sunday as the low pressure in the gulf throws more rain
at east TX and southern LA, spreading up through MS, AL and into TN on Monday.
http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=1&article=3
Jagno wrote:
Breeze;
You just had to RAIN on our little parade huh!
Just picking. We all knew it was just too beautiful to last.
Moisture return is underway this morning ahead of an upper trough to cross the region Sun/Mon
Bay of Campehce system has failed to obtain any better organization and latest model consensus suggestion this area of weather will remain an open trough and pass further S and E of the TX coast than what was suggested yesterday at this time. This keeps the best quality moisture off the TX coast and the threat for excessive rainfall out ove rthe Gulf waters. As the trough approaches the region Sunday expect returning moisture to be lifted and squeezed out in the form of showers and thunderstorms. Best dynamics come to bear over the region toward the late afternoon and early evening hours and this time period will host the highest rain chances and a threat of a strong storm of two. System should clear the region early Monday with a fairly nice week in store ahead of the next system currently penciled in for next weekend.
Tides will be running 2.5-3.5 feet above normal this weekend, but this is a reduction from yesterday where coastal flooding would have been likely. Passage of the stronger winds offshore and smaller fetch suggest a smaller amount of water level pile up. Still may have a few problems at the high tides mainly on the Gulf beaches and low lying areas within the inland bays.
Ida:
Ida has regained tropical storm intensity over the western Caribbean Sea this morning and looks fairly impressive on both IR and VIS satellite images. Deep CDO has developed over the low level center and while outflow appears restricted within the southern semi-circle the shear does not appear strong enough to prevent intensification.
Track:
Models are in general agreement with a steady NNW to NW track for the next 48 hours with Ida enteirngt eh SE Gulf of Mexico. There after a strong trough over TX should help capture Ida and swing her toward the northern Gulf coast. The latest guidance is in general agreement with this track while a few members indicate a looping motion toward the E and SE in the E Gulf prior to Ida reaching the US mainland. NHC forecast as shown below bring the system near landfall as a transitioning tropical system into a cold core frontal low and does continue to indcate the loop toward the E and SE. It should be noted that only a slight faster forward motion could bring the system inland over the Gulf coast. Regardless if Ida makes landfall, the impacts will be far reaching.
Iintensity
Wind shear appears to be overforecast in the Caribbean and given the very nice structure this morning Ida may become a hurricane in the NW Caribbean. Hence a 1000am Hurricane Watches are issued for portions of the Yucatan. Ida should weaken as she moves into the Gulf of Mexico given increaisng shear ahead of the upper trough and cooler water temps. While expected to weaken the strong pressure gradient between the large high pressure system over the E US and the lower pressure with Ida will result in a large area of strong winds across a wide portion of the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm force and gale winds could extend outward over 200 miles from the center or larger as Ida approaches the US Gulf coast resulting in adverse conditions over a large area. Large scale sustained winds will be capable of producing a larger than normal storm tide/surge from an otherwise minimal tropical system. This will need close watch especially if Ida approaches the concave coast of SE LA and SW MS where trapping of storm surge can result in some significant values.
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