Texas Fall-2016

[Ntxw]

With one week left to go I can say with confidence the snow advance index is going to be top 5 greatest since its been tracked, may be top 3 even. It will be interesting if this extraordinary anomaly shows itself this winter. 2009/2012/2014 are the recent memories of very high SAI. 2/3 featured snow around or falling on Christmas at DFW and 2014-2015 saw the most measurable snow since the 2009/2010 winter.

[Brent]

What a depressing forecast... temperatures well into the 80s into November. Any rain is at least 10 days away it appears. October is going down so warm and so dry...

Come on pattern change... I really hope this isn't a sign of winter.

[Ptarmigan]

Getting tired of all this cold weather. Have to wait another hour for it to be warm enough to head out on our 50-mile bike ride. I'm not seeing anything cooler than this morning over the next 2 weeks. Generally, above-normal temps & below-normal precip through the first week of November.

All that warm Fall gives way to a cold Winter.

[Ntxw]

What a depressing forecast... temperatures well into the 80s into November. Any rain is at least 10 days away it appears. October is going down so warm and so dry...

Come on pattern change... I really hope this isn't a sign of winter.

Give it a little more time. I think something fairly significant is happening in the upper atmosphere, almost record weak PV anomaly. Poleward equatorial heat flux is attacking the normally strong PV that we generally don't see until midwinter some years. It will take a little time to work down to the troposphere but my gut feeling is November is going to see the switch and keep the train rolling through December. The vortex is being bombarded about as much as it was in October 2009 when the PV was nearly split, as it is trying to do now.

[Brent]

October 2009 was a lot cooler and wetter than this month at DFW... in fact, it didn't even reach 90 all month and had 8" of rain. Is the pattern just delayed on the calendar?

[Ntxw]

October 2009 was a lot cooler and wetter than this month at DFW... in fact, it didn't even reach 90 all month and had 8" of rain. Is the pattern just delayed on the calendar?

That October I think was benefited by El Nino, we don't have that now. But in terms of mid latitude cold and snow, its there.

If you look at a conglomerate of the Ecmwf weeklies, the hints are a change starting second week of Nov (temp wise, precip is still not good looking).

[Brent]

October 2009 was a lot cooler and wetter than this month at DFW... in fact, it didn't even reach 90 all month and had 8" of rain. Is the pattern just delayed on the calendar?

That October I think was benefited by El Nino, we don't have that now. But in terms of mid latitude cold and snow, its there.

If you look at a conglomerate of the Ecmwf weeklies, the hints are a change starting second week of Nov (temp wise, precip is still not good looking).

Forgive my skepticism it's just last "winter" still stings badly in my head...lol

[Ntxw]

Its fair skepticism. But I really think the super nino derailed it, I made a post last fall for the fear it was strong it could spoil the winter and it did. One only had to look back at 1982 and 1997 winters but I was optimistic at all the forecasters saying the warm waters in the Goa that would later get wiped out by the Nino. No such force this season so I am more optimistic at the get go

[Ralph's Weather]

October 2009 was a lot cooler and wetter than this month at DFW... in fact, it didn't even reach 90 all month and had 8" of rain. Is the pattern just delayed on the calendar?

That October I think was benefited by El Nino, we don't have that now. But in terms of mid latitude cold and snow, its there.

If you look at a conglomerate of the Ecmwf weeklies, the hints are a change starting second week of Nov (temp wise, precip is still not good looking).

Forgive my skepticism it's just last "winter" still stings badly in my head...lol

The atmospheric conditions are very different this year. Nov and Dec look to be very cold, though moisture will be lacking unless we get a couple I-20 tracking lows to drop out of the Rockies.

[aggiecutter]

Texarkana received .50" of rain in September and .25" so far in October. If not for the 8.5" of rain in August, we would be in serious trouble. It's bad enough as it is.

[Lagreeneyes03]

I'm perfectly fine with 80's until after the first weekend in November, I mean I like 80's anytime but after my last NASCAR weekend where I prefer to not have to watch races and be cold (Anything below 65 is cold to me) I'm alright with giving the cold a chance. I love snow, so if the pattern can just flip from way above average to cold and snowy/icy that's a perfect world..until March. Noticed around Nov 2/3 I think Accuweather shows a storm system then a cooldown sooner than I'd like.

[Brent]

GFS is showing a big flip around November 4-6th or so but it's fantasy land. Election Day would be cold granted it's 15 days out.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Possibly sniffing out this stratospheric event or whatever they want to call it happening. I have a wedding in Austin Nov 4th, hopefully its not too bad

[Brent]

Possibly sniffing out this stratospheric event or whatever they want to call it happening. I have a wedding in Austin Nov 4th, hopefully its not too bad

Normally I wouldn't focus on fantasy land too much, but there's literally nothing until then. 60s/80s and sunny everyday. It seems to fit other signals too.

[Ralph's Weather]

We are very cloudy today, maybe we get lucky and stay in the 70s all afternoon.

I may have to begin to review models again soon as my first freeze date of 11/8 is nearing forecasting range and the atmosphere is preparing for a cold air dump in 2-3 weeks I believe.

[Brent]

Euro also has the GFS signal at the very end of the day 10 forecast(Nov 2-3). TWC's 15 day forecast also has the flip around the same time.

[Portastorm]

Euro also has the GFS signal at the very end of the day 10 forecast(Nov 2-3). TWC's 15 day forecast also has the flip around the same time.

I'm curious where you saw that. I just looked over the Euro through 240 hours on WeatherBell and see no sign of a pattern flip or change to colder air. Looks pretty warm actually for the next 10 days.

[Brent]

Euro also has the GFS signal at the very end of the day 10 forecast(Nov 2-3). TWC's 15 day forecast also has the flip around the same time.

I'm curious where you saw that. I just looked over the Euro through 240 hours on WeatherBell and see no sign of a pattern flip or change to colder air. Looks pretty warm actually for the next 10 days.

The DFW meteogram, but it's just the leading edge of what the GFS shows, some rain chances along a front I assume(since the GFS cold air is beyond 240 hrs)

[Portastorm]

Okay. I was just making sure that I didn't miss something. Like everyone else around here, I'm desperately searching the longer range models for hints of rain and/or cooler temperatures. Not much hope in the next two weeks that I can find.

I've seen Bastardi and some others on Twitter suggest a bigger pattern change is coming in November but I haven't seen it yet in the Euro weeklies or longer range CFS.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

GFS long range, obviously taken with a massive grain of salt, hinting at what seems to be this early PV dislodging event. Could be an interesting early cool start to November.