After another very windy weekend, high pressure has built into the region overnight with strong NW winds relaxing under another below normal morning.
High pressure overhead today and Tuesday will allow for lighter winds and continued below normal temperatures for the last few days of March. Lows back into the 40’s each morning with gradual warming of the highs into the mid 70’s looks reasonable through Wednesday under mostly sunny skies.
All forecast concerns this morning lay in the extended for Friday and Saturday as the next upper level storm system moves toward TX. Upper level pattern change with a developing trough over the SW US versus the east coast will usher in a few days of moist return flow off the Gulf of Mexico…something we have seen little of this spring . Expect surface ridge to move east of the region Wed with southerly winds returning and gradual increasing moisture levels. Dewpoints should reach into the 60’s by late Thursday as 40-50kt low level jet develops from S TX through the coastal bend into N TX. GFS shows dewpoints pushing 65-70 by late Friday as a stout dry line develops over central TX. Strong dynamics come to bear across TX Friday afternoon/night with good wind energy and for what appears to be the first time this spring some decent instability. Expect the dry line to begin to surge eastward Friday afternoon and ignite strong to severe convection over central TX. Wind profiles favor rapid upgrowth into a linear MCS or squall line with favorable profiles for numerous bowing segments. Timing for impacts into SE TX and the coastal bend region look to be after midnight into early Saturday morning. We are still 5-6 days out for this event and much can/will change with regards to convective parameters over the next few days…two important questions will be cap intensity building out of NE Mexico and quality of returning Gulf air mass.
Sytem should be east of the area by Saturday afternoon with dry and mild conditions for next Sunday. For now will disreagrd the GFS solution showing the upper trough cutting off of TX and keeping rain chances into Sunday.
Bumpy Fri/Sat?
my Cowboys 
We did get to 86F here at the house, We're now having some very light rain with a light breeze. Had a gustnado yesterday too. Looked up and saw it literally raining and twirling around all of the new growth pollen pods off the oaks. As it continued it moved out of our yard into the apartments behind us and that is when it became obvious it was a gustnado. Meanwhile I am suffering with my allergies. UGH!!
