SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[jasons2k]

I am glad we have a better shot of rain for a change. I had to set the sprinkler out last night as I still have not repaired my backflow valve on my sprinkler system from the freeze.

I think I'm ready for summer

[vbhoutex]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
413 PM CDT WED APR 14 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN IBERIA PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN LAFAYETTE PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
WEST CENTRAL ST. MARTIN PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHEASTERN VERMILION PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 409 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
COTEAU...AND WAS MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
YOUNGSVILLE AND BROUSSARD BY 430 PM CDT...
SOUTHERN LAFAYETTE BY 445 PM CDT...
MAURICE BY 445 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN. STAY INDOORS...
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
337-477-5285 EXTENSION 1.

[vbhoutex]

After the drizzly start it has turned into a beautiful day here. Partly cloudy, windy and 77F. I have a feeling this isn't going to last through the weekend, considering Jeff's email.

[CajunMama]

NannyNannyBooBoo it rained here! Totally unexpected with only a 20% chance of rain. I'm so glad i fell in that 20% area! wunderground shows anywhere from 2-4" of rain fell for my area of town. Of course it would rain after i watered my flowerbeds

[Jagno]

We were not blessed by the rain God's today. We continue to have fairly strong winds and high temps. Apparently the NWS isn't quite in agreement with Jeff on this upcoming rain event since they've only added a 20% chance for us on Saturday. Hmmmm, guess I'll get a little more bonding time in with the water hose in the morning.

[vbhoutex]

I got a whole 0.01" yesterday. Woohoo!!! Even the pole that holds the rain gauge is getting lose in the ground. We're already 3"+ behind for the year.

[CajunMama]

The airport is the official recording station and it's about 5 miles or so from my house and they received only a trace of rain yesterday whereas we received much more. They're reporting a 7" rain deficit for the year so far.

Looks to be a delightful day, clear and sunny with a high of 83. There's a nice cool breeze out there right now. Need to go plant those encore azaleas i bought yesterday

[vbhoutex]

Just finishing up with a good old spring shower here. Nice to see. It appears Jeff will be pretty spot on with yesterdays email. We definitely need the rain. I just hope it finishes up before the weekend, which is not our current forecast.

[Jagno]

Uhhhh, you can scratch that mere 20% that the NWS was giving us for Saturday................they've now moved that minute chance to Monday.

[vbhoutex]

Latest from Jeff Lindner:

Incredible rains fall over SC TX overnight. Since late yesterday afternoon 12-15 inches of rain has fallen over Live Oak and McMullen counties south of San Antonio and NW of Corpus Christi leading is widespread significant flooding. Mid level vort max along with deep moist Gulf inflow developed a quasi-stationary MCS which remained favorably parked over this small area all night. Over the past few hours the axis/core of the rainfall as shifted slightly eastward to just west of Victoria. Additionally, heavy rainfall has occurred over WC and portions of C TX leading to rapid rises on area watersheds and rivers including the: Frio, Sabinal, upper Colorado, Medina, Rio Grande, and Guadalupe.

850mb ridge over the SE US is keeping SE TX on the far eastern edge of the wet pattern over C and S TX with most activity yesterday west of I-45. Will likely see less activity today as ridge builds slightly from the east and deeper moisture is shunted westward. Starting Saturday the GFS begins to break down the ridge on its western flank allowing rich tropical moisture to move into the area while the NAM is almost completely dry. Will trend toward the wetter GFS solution especially for our western and SW zones where the deep moisture axis is already on the doorstep. Meso scale nature of the evolving pattern to our immediate west could easily rapidly raise or lower rain chances over the weekend and while Sunday is looking the wettest, just about any time will be susceptible to streamers moving in off the Gulf.

Will go ahead and aim a general 1-2 inches at our western counties, but given PWS of 1.8+ inches at CRP which is pushing 200% of normal for mid April and what happened overnight gives pause for concern in such a moist environment. Any training or quasi-stationary bands/clusters will quickly lead to significant rainfall under the deeper moisture axis. Meso scale pattern and axis of this moisture results in little skill or confidence is where to add higher QPF totals although our western counties from CLL to VCT would look like a good bet for today into Saturday and then possible W of I-45 for Sunday.

MS150 Riders:

The good news is that Saturday will feature a decent 10-15mph tailwind (ESE to SE winds of 10-15mph), bad news is there will be showers especially once west of Houston. Greatest rain chances will likely come Saturday afternoon/evening from Sealy on westward. Weak frontal boundary may shift winds around to the NE at 5-10mph for Sunday, but is such a chaotic weak wind pattern it is hard to tell if the front actually makes it to Austin on Sunday. This will also have a big impact on rain chances as drier air north of the front attempts to make inroads into the region. Not as bad as last year, but it will be wet in spots.

[jasons2k]

Visible satellite pics show cumulus is building into TCU across SE Texas and over the Houston area. I would expect to see some storms firing on the radar soon with some more heating.

[srainhoutx]

Visible satellite pics show cumulus is building into TCU across SE Texas and over the Houston area. I would expect to see some storms firing on the radar soon with some more heating.

I agree Jason. Keeping an eye to our SW near Victoria. Cold frront is firing off more heavy rain just W of San Antonio again as well.

[jasons2k]

I'm surprised we haven't seen more activity here so far. They sure are getting it down towards Corpus though!

[JenBayles]

Looks like we in west Houston will get hammered shortly, but the system appears to be moving through fairly well. Not worried about flooding right now, but any chance of it stalling out or leftover boundaries firing up this evening?

[vbhoutex]

Looks like we in west Houston will get hammered shortly, but the system appears to be moving through fairly well. Not worried about flooding right now, but any chance of it stalling out or leftover boundaries firing up this evening?

This whole system has been moving very slowly as it has crossed Texas and that is my concern. The tstorm moving in right now is not moving as fast as I would like, but it isn't just sitting either, so hopefully we will be ok. Definitely going to be watching closely. Guess yardwork is going to be out of the question this afternoon. Plenty of lightning and thunder with this one!

edit(12:27 pm): Just about over in my area, but it looks like Steve is getting pounded right now. Core of this one appears to be very near US 290/FM 1960. Not seeing anything severe from this one I don't think. Wouldn't mind the rain we are seeing at my house all afternoon minus the lightning and thunder.

[CajunMama]

More unexpected rain! 30% chance and i was in that area.

[Jagno]

Texas, that was a cruel joke. I've been watching all of those storms firing off across the Sabine for days now and could not wait to get some of the liquid stuff here. Well, you decided to keep it all because outside of a few sporadic drops (not even enough to measure as a trace) was all we've seen and it appears that the system is just about completely out of my area now.

[vbhoutex]

Looks like we in west Houston will get hammered shortly, but the system appears to be moving through fairly well. Not worried about flooding right now, but any chance of it stalling out or leftover boundaries firing up this evening?

This whole system has been moving very slowly as it has crossed Texas and that is my concern. The tstorm moving in right now is not moving as fast as I would like, but it isn't just sitting either, so hopefully we will be ok. Definitely going to be watching closely. Guess yardwork is going to be out of the question this afternoon. Plenty of lightning and thunder with this one!

edit(12:27 pm): Just about over in my area, but it looks like Steve is getting pounded right now. Core of this one appears to be very near US 290/FM 1960. Not seeing anything severe from this one I don't think. Wouldn't mind the rain we are seeing at my house all afternoon minus the lightning and thunder.

We now have building showers and/or storms beginning to move into NW and W Houston again. Another very strong one in the Cypress area. It'll be interesting to watch and see if this continues to build as it moves East or if we are just trying to tease our neighbors to the East.

[jasons2k]

I got .19" earlier - another line moving in now too. I sure could use more than I got.

[vbhoutex]

I got .19" earlier - another line moving in now too. I sure could use more than I got.

I haven't checked the gauge yet , but I do know we needed a lot more than we got and we did get some decent showers. In fact we are just finishing up another shower.