Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC047-143-145-082330-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0023.100508T1935Z-100508T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
335 PM AST SAT MAY 8 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
COROZAL
VEGA ALTA
VEGA BAJA

* UNTIL 730 PM AST

* AT 327 PM AST...EMERGENCY MANAGERS OFFICIALS IN VEGA ALTA REPORTED
THAT RIO CIBUCO WAS CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE. ALSO THEY INFORMED ROAD
620 FROM MARICAO TO FATIMA WILL BE IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLOODING IN FEW
MINUTES. RESIDENTS AND MOTORISTS NEAR THIS RIVER AND THEIR
TRIBUTARIES SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR FLOODING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 730 PM AST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1849 6640 1850 6634 1829 6631 1828 6636

$$

CASTRO

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST SAT MAY 8 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
NOW THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL SHORT-WAVE RIPPLES. HIGH
PRESSURE NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WILL RIDGE NORTHWARD OVER
TH WESTERN CARIBBEAN NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANGE TO
NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE LOCAL AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH JAMAICA
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY WILL MERGE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...AN INVERTED TROUGH...NOW OVER WESTERN PUERTO
RICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD INTO THE MONA CHANNEL TONIGHT
PULLING SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
LAKE STATES WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY...SINK
SOUTH DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK AND EXTEND A RIDGE TO ANOTHER
HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE EXTENDING AS HIGH AS 570 MB IN THE 12Z
SOUNDING CONTRIBUTED TO AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER PUERTO RICO
AIDED BY A JET FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT UPPER LEVELS PASSING
NORTH OF THE AREA KICKED OFF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO AS HIGH AS 38 THOUSAND FEET OVER PUERTO
RICO...LEAVING UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN PARTS OF
NORTHEAST...CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO. THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS REMAINED MOSTLY RAIN-FREE TODAY. MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE
MOVING OFF THE AREA TONIGHT TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT BANDS OF
MOISTURE CONTINUE IN THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK CULMINATING
IN VERY GOOD MOISTURE ON SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK THAT LINGERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
MOSTLY NORTHEAST AFTER TUESDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO ON TUESDAY. DRIER MID-LAYERS
BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS...BUT
STRONG CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON. WHEN THE PREVAILING FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST SOME
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTH COAST DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS LATER NEXT WEEK. HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE AND WOULD
EXPECT MINOR MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN DUE TO SATURATED
SOILS MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL IN PUERTO RICO...AFFECTING
TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJSJ...THEREFORE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT
09/02Z. EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE...FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...MODEST SEAS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT QUIET THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT WILL RISE WITH INCREASING WINDS MID-WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY IN AT LEAST THE OUTER WATERS THEN.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
342 PM AST SAT MAY 8 2010

PRC013-017-039-054-091-101-145-082345-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0098.100508T1942Z-100508T2345Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CIALES PR-FLORIDA PR-MOROVIS PR-BARCELONETA PR-MANATI PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
ARECIBO PR-
342 PM AST SAT MAY 8 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES...FLORIDA...MOROVIS...BARCELONETA...MANATI...VEGA BAJA
AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 745 PM AST

* AT 339 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL MUNICIPALITIES FROM ARECIBO EAST TO VEGA BAJA WITH UP
TO TWO INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADVISORY ALERTS THE PUBLIC TO FLOODING
WHICH IS GENERALLY AN INCONVENIENCE (NOT LIFE THREATENING) TO THOSE
LIVING IN THE AFFECTED AREA. ISSUED WHEN HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE
FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING PLACES IN URBAN AREAS. ALSO USED
IF SMALL RURAL OR URBAN STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH OR EXCEED
BANKFULL. SOME DAMAGES TO HOMES OR ROADS COULD OCCUR.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC143-145-090430-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FF.W.0023.000000T0000Z-100509T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
717 PM AST SAT MAY 8 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
VEGA ALTA
VEGA BAJA

* UNTIL 1230 AM AST

* RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE CAUSED THE CIBUCO RIVER
TO COME OUT OF ITS BANKS. AT 706 PM AST...THE USGS SENSOR AT VEGA
BAJA INDICATED THE RIVER AT 12.70 FEET AND RISING RAPIDLY. THE
RIVER IS FORECAST TO CREST AROUND 16.8 FEET AROUND 8 PM AND FALL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT VEGA BAJA AROUND 10 PM. FLOODING HAS BEEN
REPORTED ACROSS NUMEROUS ROADWAYS IN VEGA BAJA AND VEGA ALTA
THIS EVENING AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT EVEN
AS THE CIBUCO RIVER FALLS BELOW ITS FLOOD STAGE AT VEGA BAJA.

TRAVELING ALONG THE CIBUCO RIVER AND HIGHWAY 2 ACROSS VEGA BAJA AND
VEGA ALTA IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED TONIGHT.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1849 6640 1850 6634 1837 6634 1837 6636

$$

ROSA

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

[cycloneye]

Here is the river in northern Puerto Rico that is with the flash flood warning as it's almost at flood stage.

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrogra ... ,1,1,1,1,1

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC091-090815-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0025.100509T0215Z-100509T0815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1015 PM AST SAT MAY 8 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY

IN PUERTO RICO
MANATI

* UNTIL 415 AM AST SUNDAY

* RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT
RISES ON THE MANATI RIVER. LATEST PROJECTIONS ARE THAT THE RIVER
WILL CREST JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT. AT THIS LEVEL THE
RIVER WILL FLOOD ROUTE 666 IN THE CACHETE SECTOR AND ALSO THREATEN
ROUTE 667.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1845 6654 1849 6654 1849 6652 1842 6651
1842 6653

$$

ROSA

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1039 PM AST SAT MAY 8 2010

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1


.UPDATE...THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN TONIGHT BUT ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT OVR THE ERN THIRD OF PR. TOMORROW WILL START
OUT SUNNY WHICH SHOULD GREATLY DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE AND HELP IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA. UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK THAT
ENHANCED CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE LIFTING OUT BUT PRESENCE OF S/W
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND STRONG HEATING WILL OFFSET DYNAMICS SO AN
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE MOTHERS DAY IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE MORE
ENE WITH CONVECTION PROPAGATING WWD OR SWWD TOWARD THE MONA
PASSAGE RATHER NWD TOWARD THE ATLC OCEAN. THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR
PLACES LIKE VEGA ALTA WHERE HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING HAS
PLAGUED THIS COUNTY FOR TWO CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR OVERNIGHT BUT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY AT
JMZ/JBQ TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH LESSER CHANCES AT JSJ.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 1-3 FT THRU EARLY TUE. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
BRINGS 8 FT SEAS WED NIGHT IN COMBINATION WITH SMALL NORTH SWELLS
AND EAST GENERATED WIND WAVES. STILL TOO FAR OUT TO ISSUE ANY SCA`S.


&&

HYDROLOGY...TWO ACTIVE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AT THIS TIME ONE
ALONG THE CIBUCO RIVER AND ANOTHER ON THE MANATI RIVER. THE CIBUCO
RIVER CRESTED AROUND 830 PM BUT FLOOD WATERS WILL BE SLOW TO
RECEDE ESPECIALLY IN VEGA ALTA. LATEST PROJECTIONS FROM SERFC AND
SITE SPECIFIC MODELS BRING THE MANATI RIVER ALSO ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. GIVEN THE CURR RIVER LEVEL AND FLOW OF WATER HAD TO ISSUE A
WARNING.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all. Better weather for this mothers day but still the afternoon diurnal heat showers will fall.

Happy Mothers Day to all the mothers in the Caribbean & Central America

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
422 AM AST SUN MAY 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...AMPLE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW...WILL
RESULT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE
THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THIS AREA
TODAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD ON MONDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...PW
VALUES CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 2 INCHES AND THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE RADAR IMAGES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST UPSTREAM OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IS
INDICATING A MORE EASTERLY LLVL WIND FLOW...WHICH SHOULD DIRECT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEARLY DUE WESTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH RELATIVELY CLOUDY FREE CONDITIONS TO START THE
DAY...EXPECT ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE AFTERNOON ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...WITH PREVAILING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
VI.

WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MID WEEK...IN RESPONSE TO
A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...GOOD MOISTURE AND GENERALLY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
GOOD DIURNAL SHOWER COVERAGE EACH DAY. THE SERIES OF TROPICAL
WAVES PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC ARE ALL FORECAST TO STAY
WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND HAVE
NO IMPACT ON THE LOCAL WEATHER OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...AREAS
OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
09/12Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS OF PUERTO RICO...IN AN SHRA OR AN ISOLATED TSRA.
THEN...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...INCLUDING TJMZ...AFT 09/16Z OR 09/17Z AND LINGER THROUGH AT
LEAST 09/22Z...IN NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHRAS AND AN ISOLATED
TSRA.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST SUN MAY 9 2010

PRC023-067-079-097-125-092200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0102.100509T1855Z-100509T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HORMIGUEROS PR-SAN GERMAN PR-CABO ROJO PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-LAJAS PR-
255 PM AST SUN MAY 9 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
HORMIGUEROS...SAN GERMAN...CABO ROJO...MAYAGUEZ AND LAJAS

* UNTIL 600 PM AST

* AT 254 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST
THOUGH 6 PM AST.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
344 PM AST SUN MAY 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET OF
60 PLUS KNOTS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MOVE EAST ALLOWING
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN TO SPREAD NORTH OVER
THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL MOVE EAST ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKNESS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOCAL AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF PUERTO
RICO HAS MOVED INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON MONDAY WILL TIGHTEN
GRADIENTS OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS IT SINKS SOUTH MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AFTER REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE HIGH
PRESSURE IS RE-JOINED BY ANOTHER STRONGER HIGH THAT JOINS THE
STATIONARY HIGH IN THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC AND HOLDS THE ENTIRE MID
LATITUDE ATLANTIC OCEAN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID MAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
THIS AFTERNOON AND WERE FADING BY 3:30 PM. RE-DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE BUT MODELS WERE SHOWING A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY EARLY
TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS DEEP REACHING MORE THAN 25 THOUSAND FEET WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL OVER 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH THE NAM
ORIGINALLY SHOWED LITTLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS IT HAS NOW JOINED THE GFS IN FORECASTING SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THEREFORE HAVE BOOSTED POPS SOMEWHAT THERE
TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MIMIC
PRODUCT ALSO SHOWS AN EAST-WEST STRAND OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARD
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THAT IS LIKELY TO BE THE
CAUSE OF THIS MOISTURE INCREASE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ON THE
NORTH COAST WILL AGAIN APPROACH OR HIT 90 DEGREES MONDAY AS WIND
FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM EAST SOUTHEAST TO EAST NORTHEAST AND SOUTH
COAST IS LIKELY TO WARM UP MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BROKEN ONLY
BY DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK AND INCREASES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK AS MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
ENTERS THE AREA. THUS THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A WET WEEK WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING EACH DAY...FAVORING THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO AFTER MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS MAY BE SLOW TO
CLEAR IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO THROUGH 10/04Z OTHERWISE EXPECT
GENERAL CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING FOLLOWED BY MORE CLOUDS AND SOME VERY LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS GENERALLY AFT 10/08Z DUE TO INCREASING SHOWERS AND
MOISTURE. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY 5 TO 15 KT.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING LIKELY IN BOTH OUTER ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
356 PM AST SUN MAY 9 2010

PRC013-017-027-039-054-065-071-081-091-101-115-131-145-092300-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0104.100509T1956Z-100509T2300Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ISABELA PR-CIALES PR-FLORIDA PR-MOROVIS PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-
SAN SEBASTIAN PR-LARES PR-BARCELONETA PR-CAMUY PR-HATILLO PR-
MANATI PR-VEGA BAJA PR-ARECIBO PR-
356 PM AST SUN MAY 9 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ISABELA...CIALES...FLORIDA...MOROVIS...QUEBRADILLAS...SAN
SEBASTIAN...LARES...BARCELONETA...CAMUY...HATILLO...MANATI...
VEGA BAJA AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 700 PM AST

* AT 355 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST
THOUGH 7:00 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
919 PM AST SUN MAY 9 2010

PRC017-091-100400-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-100510T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BARCELONETA PR-MANATI PR-
919 PM AST SUN MAY 9 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST FOR
MANATI AND BARCELONETA MUNICIPALITIES...

FOR THE RIO GRANDE DE MANATI NEAR MANATI- MANP4

...MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING...

AT 912 PM AST...THE USGS SENSOR INDICATED THE RIVER HAD
RISEN TO 25.45 FEET... AND RISING RAPIDLY. LATEST PROJECTIONS
ARE THAT THE RIVER WILL CREST 26.5 FEET AROUND 10 PM THIS
EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1849 6658 1848 6651 1840 6647 1838 6651

$$

MARTINEZ/ROSA

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1007 PM AST SUN MAY 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES WILL EXIT THE MID ATLC COAST MON NIGHT AND
TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK RESULTING IN
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON.
REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH MOIST AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH AFTERNOON DEEP CONVECTION
EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW OVR WRN PR.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST IN PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 FT BUT WILL BUILD TO
7-9 FT BY THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO EAST GENERATED WIND WAVES.
SCA`S LIKELY BY WED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURING AT THE MANATI RIVER IN
MANATI. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT.

[tropicana]

Regional Weather Summary
Sun May 9 2010

Sunday's Highs and rain (if any)

Piarco, C. Trinidad 35.1C 95F
Crown Point, Tobago 32.3C 90F

Poit Salines, Grenada 32.0C 90F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 31.7C 89F
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 31.2C 88F 0.6mm
Hewannora, St Lucia 32.0C 90F trace
Vigie, St Lucia 32.1C 90F

Melville Hall, Dominica 31.1C 88F 2.0mm
Canefield, Dominica 32.8C 91F 2.9mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 31.5C 89F 4.2mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 31.7C 89F 0.2mm

Golden Rock, St Kitts 30.6C 87F
VC Bird, Antigua 30.4C 86F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 30.6C 87F 11.0mm

Norman Manley, Jamaica 32.9C 91F
Sangster, Montego Bay, Jamaica 32.7C 91F
Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 31.3C 88F
Havana, Cuba 31.6C 89F

Nassau, Bahamas 32.4C 90F
Hamilton, Bermuda 25.0C 77F

Hato, Curacao 32.6C 91F
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 31.6C 89F
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 32.8C 91F

Cayenne, Guyana 30.7C 87F 89.0mm (ITCZ)

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all. Variable weather for all week long with sun mixed with scattered showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
538 AM AST MON MAY 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER DAY OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. WITH ALREADY
SATURATED SOILS...SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED LATER IN
THE DAY. CONTINUED MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
TRADE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PW CONTINUES TO HOVER AROUND 2 INCHES THIS MORNING
WITH GOOD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OBSERVED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF AN OLD TROUGH IS
HELPING TO DRIVE WEATHER THERE. EXPECT RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...A
MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...TO RESULT IN GOOD
DIURNAL SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO LINGER OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RIDGING EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL HELP
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO TO MOVE MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND THEREFORE REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
HOWEVER WITH VERY SATURATED SOILS...WILL AT LEAST SEE THE
POSSIBILITY OF AREAS OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SMALLER
ISLANDS...TJSJ AND TJBQ FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SHRA AND TSRA
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO WILL RESULT IN MVFR
OR EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...ACROSS TJMZ AND TJPS...THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A VCSH OR VCTS LIKELY NEAR BOTH TJSJ AND TJBQ
BETWEEN 10/16 AND 10/22Z. IN ADDITION...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
BE LIKELY AFT 10/16 ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PR. INCREASING EASTERLY
LLVL WINDS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
200 PM AST MON MAY 10 2010

PRC001-003-011-081-083-099-131-141-102100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0105.100510T1800Z-100510T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ADJUNTAS PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-UTUADO PR-AGUADA PR-
LAS MARIAS PR-LARES PR-ANASCO PR-
200 PM AST MON MAY 10 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ADJUNTAS...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...UTUADO...AGUADA...LAS
MARIAS...LARES AND ANASCO

* UNTIL 500 PM AST

* AT 158 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.

UP TO TWO INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IS SOME AREAS AND ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

EXPECT SOME RISES ON RIVERS IN THE AREA INCLUDING THE ANASCO AND THE
CULEBRINAS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE RIVERS

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
241 PM AST MON MAY 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH JUST ACROSS HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON...
WILL CONTINUE CLOSE TO THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST TOMORROW...
INDUCING A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
A HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
TUESDAY...PRODUCING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GFS MODEL GUIDANCE...CONTINUE TO INDICATE PW VALUES
IN THE ORDER OF TWO OR MORE INCHES TO AT LEAST TOMORROW...WITH A
SLIGHTLY DECREASING TREND EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY...BUT MAINTAINING
PW VALUES OF NEAR TWO INCHES DURING THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ OR
EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE FA...INCREASING THE
VALUES OF PW TO AROUND 2.5 INCHES. THESE ARE NICE INDICATIONS THAT
THE MONTH OF MAY IS WELL ESTABLISHED AND WILL CONTINUE WITH US FOR
A WHILE.

SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS...WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND MONA PASSAGE TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF A SURFACE TROUGH JUST ACROSS HISPANIOLA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS...PRODUCED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE
EVENING HOURS. WITH THE SOILS ALREADY SATURATED...THE POSSIBILITY
OF AREAS OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
SEABOARD BY LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN INCREASE
IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WILL HELP
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO TO MOVE MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND THEREFORE REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ...WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...AIR MASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PUERTO RICO WILL BRING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. MVFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED AT TJMZ TIL 10/22Z. OCNL MVFR MAY ALSO BE ENCOUNTERED AT
TNCM WITH VCNTY SHWRS. CONDS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT BUT SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE AFT 11/08Z...MAINLY ON THE NE COAST OF PR AND OVER THE
USVI. PREVAILING FLOW FROM ENE TO INCREASE DURING DAY TUESDAY.