Texas Spring 2013

[SouthernMet]

Possible cycling, funnels reported near Blanket/Sidney. With atleast one confirmed tornado N of Brownwood. - Comanche in the path of the storm (baseball hail) and Tornado Warning for Comanche county

[SouthernMet]

DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED IN BLANKET FROM THIS TORNADO.

5:48 PM - Confirmed brief rain wrapped #tornado 1 mile south of Ringgold. Another confirmed tornado in Blanket...near Comanche County line.

[TexasF6]

Uhmmm...the 2nd Brownwood storm is developing SSE...towards Wilco...someone tell me its just a wobble please...

[TexasF6]

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
907 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

TXZ171>173-210415-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN
907 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.NOW...
THROUGH 11 PM...PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF A TRACE ARE POSSIBLE.

$$

[SouthernMet]

Moderate risk right over DFW metro

[iorange55]

Appears like the severe weather threat has elevated slightly for North Texas over night. People should be on high alert today.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Can we get analysis of this sounding? Looks very interesting and there are some things i dont understand. Thanks

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/13052100_OBS/

[Ntxw]

Ominous day for North and Central Texans today. We have a storm complex coming down from Oklahoma and boundaries are laying around from the dying storms last night. Greatest concern is supercells develop ahead as the complex moves closer especially along the I-20 and I-30 with large hail and more than likely some tornadoes during peak heating. I know there are a lot of anxious folks after seeing what unfolded in Moore. Have a plan, know where to go and what to do and make sure people around us are aware. My hope is we'll just have to deal with a line of storms with hail and straight line winds.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

This isnt the main line though is it? It's possible that this line will 'starve' the atmosphere from making tornadoes for a short time though correct?

[gboudx]

The line isn't moving fast enough south for that. The main show for N and C TX is forecasted between 12 and 5pm.

_________________
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[Portastorm]

Ominous day for North and Central Texans today. We have a storm complex coming down from Oklahoma and boundaries are laying around from the dying storms last night. Greatest concern is supercells develop ahead as the complex moves closer especially along the I-20 and I-30 with large hail and more than likely some tornadoes during peak heating. I know there are a lot of anxious folks after seeing what unfolded in Moore. Have a plan, know where to go and what to do and make sure people around us are aware. My hope is we'll just have to deal with a line of storms with hail and straight line winds.

Well said, Ntxw. I am very concerned about how today's weather unfolds for those of us in Texas. I think those of us here who are weather savvy need to keep our family and friends and co-workers and fellow students apprised of the potential today for some really bad weather.

[gboudx]

Briefing from the FWD NWS:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R4SdjFy50f0

[vbhoutex]

From Jeff Lindner:

Severe/Tornado Outbreak possible this afternoon/evening over TX

Potential for long tracked violent tornadoes across N TX this afternoon and evening

SPC moderate risk for severe weather including tornadoes in effect for today for N TX

Multi-day severe/tornado outbreak continues to unfold this morning across the US plains which has already produced devastating results. Parent upper level storm system responsible for the daily outbreaks continues to spin over the northern plains with a slow moving cold front across OK at the current time. Air mass south of this front and east of the dry line is incredibly moist and unstable with frequent dewpoints in the 70’s and CAPES values of 1500-2500 J/kg. With surface heating, the air mass over N and C TX will become extremely unstable by midday with CAPE values approaching 4000-5000 J/kg ahead of the eastward moving dry line and south of the southward moving frontal boundary. Short wave moving out of New Mexico will help erode the capping overhead by early afternoon and expect explosive supercell development along both the dry line and cold front. Storms will go quickly severe with hail to greater than 2 inches likely. Initial mode will be very dangerous supercells capable of strong rotation and tornadoes given the degree of instability and shear in place. Current thinking is that the greatest tornado threat will be along I-20 including the Dallas/Fort Worth metro areas with a secondary threat along/west of I-35 all the way to west of Austin along the dry line. Best ingredients for potentially devastating tornadoes will be over N TX into AR and NW LA although the moderate risk outline does clip our northern set of counties.

Severe weather event will unfold NW of SE TX this afternoon and affect at least the north counties of our area this evening/overnight. Initial supercells will congeal into clusters and lines with the tornado threat weakening after dark and the threat for wind damage increasing as lines bow outward. Capping across our region looks to remain fairly potent, but very strong heating combined with lift from an approaching short wave will likely be enough to break the cap and allow central TX storms to move across the northern 1/3rd of our region or roughly from Columbus to Conroe to Livingston. Storms may attempt to build southward toward I-10 in the overnight hours, but it remains to be seen as to how strong the capping is over the southern portions of the area.

Think the main severe threat for SE TX will be wind damage and potentially very large hail. Tornado indices are fairly favorable from College Station to the Huntsville area this afternoon, but this is prior to the cap being breached. By early evening when the capping weakens likely allowing storms to develop, the tornado threat appears to be reduced. Should the cap weaken quicker than expected, the tornado threat across our northern counties will be increased

Low level boundary will remain in place on Wednesday and expect a continued threat for strong to severe storms across the central and southern counties with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat.

Residents across TX need to review their severe weather and tornado safety plans.

SPC Severe Weather Outlook:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... k_1200.gif

[gboudx]

Tornado Watch goes up for the FWD CWA until 7pm. Anyone interested in listening to FWD NOAA radio, can listen online at: http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/sma ... x|817|3499

[Houstonia]

The Hou/Gal NWS weather station online link seems to be down. I can't access it any other way. Does anyone know if the station itself is down or is it just the online link?

I'm currently listening to the Lufkin station, but it's a little out of the region.

thanks.

[ndale]

Ominous day for North and Central Texans today. We have a storm complex coming down from Oklahoma and boundaries are laying around from the dying storms last night. Greatest concern is supercells develop ahead as the complex moves closer especially along the I-20 and I-30 with large hail and more than likely some tornadoes during peak heating. I know there are a lot of anxious folks after seeing what unfolded in Moore. Have a plan, know where to go and what to do and make sure people around us are aware. My hope is we'll just have to deal with a line of storms with hail and straight line winds.

Well said, Ntxw. I am very concerned about how today's weather unfolds for those of us in Texas. I think those of us here who are weather savvy need to keep our family and friends and co-workers and fellow students apprised of the potential today for some really bad weather.

Yes, this statement from the national weather service for our area makes you take note: "HEIGHTENED CONCERN EXISTS ALONG AND NORTH OF A BURNET TO AUSTIN TO GIDDINGS LINE THIS EVENING...WHERE THE MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL
RESIDE. THIS AREA WILL BE MOST AT RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES."

[vbhoutex]

Latest from Jeff Lindner:

SPC has issued a large tornado watch for much of N and portions of C TX until 700pm.

Outflow boundary from S OK convection is surging southward over N TX while at the same time the dry line/cold front combo is approaching from the west. The air mass over N and C TX is becoming very unstable with CAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg along the I-35 corridor. With continued surface heating, expect supercells to develop within the next few hours from NW of Fort Worth SSW along the dry line deep into C TX. Backed low level winds near the incoming outflow boundary from the NW may help to enhance the tornado threat near/around Fort Worth over the next several hours.

Southern flank supercells that fire along the dry line west of Austin/Waco will have a high end tornado threat along with a very large hail threat (greater than 2.0 inches in diameter). Storms will congeal into a forward fast moving line by this evening with a very significant wind damage threat (frequent speeds to hurricane force) spreading across much of NTX into our northern counties. Short term high resolution models continue to suggest a bow echo evolving over N TX with southern flank supercells with a tornado threat across central TX. Think the biggest tornado threat will reside NW of a line from Austin to near College Station to Lufkin and ahead of the main squall line.

Meso models continue to trend toward bring an MCS/bow echo into and possibly even through much of SE TX overnight. Still some questions on the cap intensity with the same models showing a building cap after sunset from deep south TX into the coastal bend so even though the meso models are wanting to bring storms all the way to the coast, the thermodynamic profile may not be very favorable south of I-10.

Tornado Watch Outline:

WW0201 Radar

[Ntxw]

I didn't get much severe weather (hail, high winds) did get some gusts before the rain and then it poured cats and dogs for about 45 mins. Drive home had street flooding and hydroplaned the entire way. Now it feels cool outside in the low 60s, quite refreshing to say the least.

[weatherdude1108]

We received DIDDLY -- and SQUAT here at the Weatherdude office. Got sprinkles and a cool down to 73 when front moved through. But VERY GRATEFUL we did not get the big hail and tornadoes which were in this morning's forecast threat!

[Annie Oakley]

We received DIDDLY -- and SQUAT here at the Weatherdude office. Got sprinkles and a cool down to 73 when front moved through. But VERY GRATEFUL we did not get the big hail and tornadoes which were in this morning's forecast threat!

Remember the Alamo.