SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[Ed Mahmoud]

I live South of DWH and West of IAH. When IAH gets below 40ºF, I usually get a little frost on the car.

[Extremeweatherguy]

At 5:40am, I am sitting at a very cold 31-degrees! Brr!!!

Also, as of 40 minutes ago, IAH was at 34, Hooks at 32 and Conroe at 29. That means that Conroe and Hooks have both officially seen their first freeze and it looks very possible that IAH could dip to 32 during the 6am or 7am report.

[southerngale]

It was 29° and 30° for lows at the two Instaweather (Weatherbug) stations nearest me.

While we were sitting at that temp, it was 44° in Amarillo!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I hit 30.6˚ last night and Hooks (my nearest airport) hit 30.9˚. IAH, however, stayed just above freezing and bottomed out only near 33.1˚. This means that "officially" Houston has not yet seen it's first freeze.

[jasons2k]

I had 34F and everything looks OK (no freeze damage).

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest Houston AFD...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
241 PM CST WED DEC 5 2007

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY HAS BEEN ANOTHER SUNNY DECEMBER DAY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
EVERYONE HAS REACHED THE LOWER TO MID 70S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SOME UPPER 70S WILL PROBABLY BE REACHED BEFORE SUNSET. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE
ON THE AREA WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE
EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
AND PRESSURES LOWERING TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...EXPECT TO SEE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES STARTING ON THURSDAY AND THEN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS
WE HEAD ON INTO THE WEEKEND. PATCHY FOG (POSSIBLY EVEN SOME DENSE SEA
FOG) MIGHT DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING GULF MOISTURE...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK DISTURBANCES...AND A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT ALL
LEAN TOWARD AN INCREASING COMPLICATED AND LOW CONFIDENCE EXTENDED FORECAST.
HAVE LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR EVERYONE ON SATURDAY...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE
POPS (ESPECIALLY UP NORTH) SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE FRONT
ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE LEANED TOWARD PARKING THE FRONT NORTH OF I-10.
IF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA...SO WILL MOST OF THE RAINS.
IF THE BOUNDARY DOES SAG INTO THE AREA...THE RAINS WILL COME. THERE
MIGHT END UP BEING QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE WEATHER WITH COOLER AND
WETTER CONDITIONS UP NORTH AND DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TOWARD THE
COAST. STAY TUNED! IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL CLEAR OUT AND COOL
DOWN SOME TIME BETWEEN LATE ON TUESDAY AND EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW OUT WEST OPENS AND LIFTS ON OUT AND A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE AREA

Hmm. Looks like a fun pattern may be in place by next week. We could very well be looking at one of those situations where the northern areas of SE Texas are quite cold and quite wet, while the southern areas are warm and dry with a very distinct frontal boundry across the region. I wouldn't even be surprised to see a pretty big temperature spread across the region during the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe with some places struggling to get out of the 40-60 range while others are muggy and well into the 70s. By Wednesday though, it looks like the front will finally push through the entire area and we will all turn cooler and drier in it's wake. We might even have the potential to see a frost or freeze if we can clear out and calm down Wednesday and Thursday night. It doesn't look like this will be a setup for a hard freeze though...probably just a night or two similar to what we saw yesterday morning.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I had 34F and everything looks OK (no freeze damage).

yeah, it was not too bad. Just a little minor banana tree and poinsettia damage around here, as well as a few brown spots on the grass from the frost, but overall this is nothing unexpected from a light freeze.

[gatorcane]

Well all I am watching all of this cold from afar. Maybe you can send some my way here in SE Florida.

Temperatures here are reluctant to even get to normal levels this time of year. Today's low in Boca Raton was 55F. That is the coldest it has been this year and in fact only the second time this fall/winter it has got below 60F.

But a look ahead shows lows around 70F and highs around 80F starting Fri. through the rest of next week with E winds at 10-20mph off the Atlantic waters which are running around 78-80F

[Extremeweatherguy]

Our latest NWS forecast for next week...

Monday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69.

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65.

Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70.

Tuesday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45.

Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56.

[CajunMama]

It's beginning to feel alot like summer!

*Sing to the tune of It's Beginning to Look Alot Like Christmas!"

[PTrackerLA]

I hate to complain about the weather because we know how it is down here but this is just miserable to me! On the start of the second week in December highs will be flirting with the 80's and lows in the upper 60's to near 70...yuck! This is the one month of the year that I want it to get cold and stay cold but we all know that doesn't happen too often. Hopefully we'll get a big blast by late next week, the models are starting to look colder as we head into mid-December/Christmas.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It looks like tonight and tomorrow will be cooler than originally thought. Here is the latest forecast for north Houston...

Tonight: A 30 percent chance of showers. Areas of fog before midnight. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 52. East wind around 5 mph becoming north.

Monday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 62. North wind around 5 mph becoming east.

This is about 15 degrees cooler than we expected this time yesterday.

[southerngale]

It's supposed to be much warmer a little to your east, EWG. This front is giving the forecasters a hard time.

Beaumont:

Overnight: A 20 percent chance of showers. Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Southeast wind around 5 mph.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. South wind between 10 and 15 mph.

[vbhoutex]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&p=1672593#p1672593

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 18z GFS shows a widespread freeze north of I-10 on Sunday morning...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif

...It is calling for a low of 31.6F at IAH.

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
520 AM CST TUE DEC 11 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY 0F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE
FOR SE TX BEFORE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONT SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
COMBINE WITH THE ONSHORE WINDS TO KEEP CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH AND MAIN COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
LATE THIS WEEK. THE BREAK FROM THE CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND WILL END EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS RETURN.

THE MODELS STILL DIFFERED A BIT ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
UPCOMING FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE NAM/WRF HAS DONE A DECENT TO VERY
GOOD JOB RECENTLY WITH THE COLD AND WARM FRONTS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. LIKED ITS HANDLING OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS ACTUALLY LOOKED TO DO A DECENT JOB IN
HANDLING THE COASTAL FRONT AND LOW ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.
THE THINKING HERE IS THAT THE SURFACE LOW MAY ACTUALLY GET FARTHER
INLAND THAN SHOWN BY THE MODEL. OVER THE WEEKEND SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON LOOKS TO PUSH INTO SE TX AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY GETS PUSHED ACROSS THE STATE. FIGURED IT BEST TO
TEMPER THE TEMPERATURES A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY TO BE A CATEGORY LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THE RAIN FORECAST WAS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE. VERY GOOD WARM AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES WARRANTS
ISOLATED POPS THIS MORNING. DID NOT THINK THERE WOULD BE A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE BETTER 700 MB MOISTURE MOVED SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY. A BREAK LOOKS TO OCCUR ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE COASTAL
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. AFTER A DRY
WEEKEND BROUGHT THE NEXT ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES IN ON MONDAY.

Their forecast is still a bit conservative right now (high in the mid 50s, low in the upper 30s), but they think the potential is there for the coldest air of the season and they may have to lower their temperatures further in future updates.

BTW - - The 6z GFS is is a good idea of how cold it could be. It shows a high in the 40s on Saturday followed a low of 30F at IAH Sunday morning (colder in outlying areas), then a high in the lower 50s Sunday, and then another low below freezing Monday morning (about 31-32F at IAH). It also shows some potential for sleet to mix in north of I-10 toward the end of the scattered precipitation Friday night/Saturday morning.

[PTrackerLA]

The NWS Lake Charles is calling for a freeze area wide this weekend. I also looked at the 06z GFS and indicates some mixed precipitation I-10 northward for Louisiana too. Talk about a turn of event considering we've been muggy and in the 80s for 4 or 5 days now!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest forecast from the NWS for my area...

This Afternoon: Isolated showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. South wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 10%.

Tonight: A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Southeast wind 5 to 15 mph becoming west.

Wednesday: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58. North wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Wednesday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45. North wind around 10 mph.

Thursday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58. North wind around 10 mph.

Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51.

Friday: A 40 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 62.

Friday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 56.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 34.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 55.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 35.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 60.

They keep trending the temperatures further and further downward with each new update, and this forecast could still even be too warm! That 34 and 35 forecast for lows this weekend is liable to actually be more like 28 and 29 for the very northern parts of Harris county. We are definitely going to be needing those jackets out and ready!

[jasons2k]

I doubt we'll see a hard freeze out of this. It's a chilly airmass but not that cold.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I doubt we'll see a hard freeze out of this. It's a chilly airmass but not that cold.

I hit 30˚ with the last freeze, so I wouldn't doubt that we get into the upper 20s here in NNW Harris county this time. However, I do agree that most places will likely not see a hard freeze out of this (except may be in Conroe). The chance of us getting below the 27˚ mark for multiple hours just doesn't seem too likely ATM.