Caribbean - Central America Weather

[bvigal]

I'm not for a minute doubting what they say. But, I've been watching the GFS for 3 days now, and it continues to show our area between .1 and .25 inches precip past 6hrs, which doesn't sound like that much rain to me. (For sure, the NAM is showing more) Am I reading these wrong?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_024m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_042m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072m.gif

[cycloneye]

What the folks at the NWS in San Juan are eluding to about a big rain event for next weekend is in the graphic from GFS below.

bvigal,you are seeing those very good.

[bvigal]

Thanks, Luis, I really appreciate your response, you are so tuned in! Yeah, I saw that big mess for next weekend (going to keep hoping it won't materialize, I think we've had enough rain now). My post was talking about how NWS last 3 days been predicting big rain for THIS weekend.

It's plenty humid & sticky today, any rain puddles will take a while to evap!

[msbee]

hey bvigal
good to see you back posting. hope all is well.

Luis, I tried a couple of times to get on storm2k and couldn't.
Is the site having problems and going off line sometimes?
If so, I hope they get it fixed before the heavy traffic that will be coming up during hurricane season.
hope all is well and that you guys don't get too much rain

cloudy skies here this morning but it doesn't look like any rain.
Barbara

[cycloneye]

hey bvigal
good to see you back posting. hope all is well.

Luis, I tried a couple of times to get on storm2k and couldn't.
Is the site having problems and going off line sometimes?
If so, I hope they get it fixed before the heavy traffic that will be coming up during hurricane season.
hope all is well and that you guys don't get too much rain

cloudy skies here this morning but it doesn't look like any rain.
Barbara

Good morning Barbara. As I know,storm2k has been fine in the past few days as I have been comming in without problems.Yes,traffic will be very heavy this upcomming season because of the expectations of a very busy one,but the administrators are preparing for that.

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert have been activated for Guadeloupe due to a strong risk of rain and tstorms until this weekend.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST SAT MAY 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS MOVES
NORTH ROUGHLY ALONG 70 WEST RESULTING IN FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE
TRADE WIND FLOW. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALSO FORM ACROSS
THE SW CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND TRACK VERY SLOWLY IN THE
GENERAL DIRECTION OF HISPANIOLA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEP MOISTURE AND LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RESULT
IN STRONG SEA BREEZE AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS WRN PR EACH
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN INTENSE AND SLOW MOVING AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES WITH SVRL INCHES OF RAIN IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. SCT MORNING
SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST COAST OF PR AS
LOW-LVL WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY PREDICTING THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRES WILL FORM ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN NEXT WEEK AND TRACK VERY
SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF
HISPANIOLA. DEEP POLAR TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE NW ATLC
AND DISPLACE THE SUBTROPICAL RIGDE TO THE EAST AND TURN THE WINDS
TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND HELP TRANSPORT RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
SUGGESTING THAT HISPANIOLA WOULD GET THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM
CAN`T RULED OUT SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINS OVR OUR AREA GIVEN THE
EXTREMELY HIGH PWAT VALUES FCST (GREATER THAN 2.5 INCHES).


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AT JMZ/JBQ WITH VCTS EACH AFTERNOON. VFR
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT ATLC WATERS AND 1-3 FT CARIBBEAN
SEA. CG LIGHTNING/TSTMS THE MAIN HAZARD. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
MARINE CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...THROUGH THE FIRST 21 DAYS OF MAY 2010 A TOTAL OF 9.38
INCHES OF RAIN HAS ACCUMULATED AT LMM INTL ARPT REPRESENTING THE
FOURTH WETTEST START TO MAY ON RECORD. THE WETTEST MAY ON RECORD WAS
1965 WHEN 14.99 INCHES WERE RECORDED. WITH A WEEK OR SO STILL
LEFT IN THE MONTH AND THINGS LOOKING PRETTY WET THE REST OF THIS
MONTH THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES TO ADD ON TO THE
RAINFALL TOTALS.

IN ADDITION...A TOTAL OF 28.07 INCHES HAS BEEN RECORDED SO FAR THIS
YEAR REPRESENTING THE WETTEST START TO A YEAR ON RECORD. THIS TOTAL
IS AHEAD OF 2005 WHICH ENDED AS THE WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD IN SAN
JUAN.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
346 PM AST SAT MAY 22 2010

PRC051-137-222245-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0132.100522T1946Z-100522T2245Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DORADO PR-TOA BAJA PR-
346 PM AST SAT MAY 22 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
DORADO AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 645 PM AST

* AT 345 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...AT LEAST UNTIL
6:45 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1007 PM AST SAT MAY 22 2010

.UPDATE...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A
SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER FAIRLY
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...
MAINTAINING THE LIGHT AND VERY MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. WENT AHEAD AND MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST THIS EVENING...BUT OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
23/16Z. MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ AFT 23/17Z IN SHRA/TSRA.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.The forecast for this week and next weekend looks like a wet one to end the month of May on a rainy note so stay tuned.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
452 AM AST SUN MAY 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTH SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND A MODERATE JET IS WRAPPING
AROUND THE TROUGH ABOUT 200 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO.
THE JET WILL STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT NORTHWARD...BUT THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK KEEPING PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS IN WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW.


AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMA
ISLANDS AND MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH MID-WEEK. A WEAK TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND TUESDAY
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AS HIGH PRESSURE SAGS INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. BY WEDNESDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO A POSITION
SOUTHEAST OF NORTH CAROLINA WHILE SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PULLING
A TROUGH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY LEAVE THE AREA ON THE TUESDAY AFTER NEXT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE ATLANTIC NORTHWEST
OF THE LOCAL AREA AND HAVE CONTINUED IN THE CARIBBEAN SOUTHWEST
OF SAINT THOMAS AND SOUTH OF PATILLAS INDICATING THE GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING OF A LOW THAT HAS BEEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
THE AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
MORE CONSISTENCY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM RUN TO RUN AND SUGGEST
THAT SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT LOW LEVELS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK WHILE THE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR NEAR 90 DEGREES IN
THE NORTHEAST COASTAL SECTIONS MIDDAY. THIS WILL ALSO PULL PLENTY
OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND BRING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
EACH AFTERNOON WITH SOME RELIEF FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUMS. IN
GENERAL TERMS MOISTURE APPEARS TO INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN THERE IS AN INTERMISSION AFTER WEDNESDAY UNTIL A DEEP
PLUME FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOVES EAST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH SATURDAY FOLLOWING WITH A CLOSE SECOND. WET WEATHER
CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN INTERIOR RECEIVING THE MOST RAIN...BUT ALL AREAS SHOULD
HAVE GOOD RAINS BY THE END OF MAY. AT THIS TIME THERE APPEARS TO
BE SOME WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT KEEPS CONVECTION
FROM BECOMING MORE INTENSE. WEST WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS ARE ALSO
SHEARING OFF THE MOISTURE AS CLOUDS RISE DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
CUTTING OFF THE HEAT SOURCE IN THE SUBSEQUENT SHADOW WHICH IS
NEEDED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THUS RAINS ARE LIMITED AND
FLOODING IS ONLY LOCAL. THE CULEBRINAS ROSE TO WITHIN INCHES OF
FLOOD STAGE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

IT APPEARS THAT MUCH BETTER MOISTURE IS ALMOST UNAVOIDABLE LATE
THURSDAY AND ALL DAY FRIDAY AND FLOODING COULD BE WIDESPREAD THEN.
IN THE MEANTIME CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHWEST WILL DETERIORATE
SLOWLY THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH MUDSLIDES BECOMING MORE FREQUENT IN
THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. AS THIS WET SCENARIO BECOMES MORE CERTAIN
FURTHER STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES.
ANOTHER DIURNAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH...INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ACROSS TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJSJ DURING AFTERNOON
HOURS. MOST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BECOME OBSCURED BY
23/17Z. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING AT 23/00Z INDICATED LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BETWEEN SFC TO 13 KFT...AND THEN STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ABOVE
13 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...DUE TO LIGHT WINDS SEAS HAVE REMAINED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AND ARE EXPECTED TO DO SO THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH. LOCAL CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEK MAY DETERIORATE DUE TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

[cycloneye]

What I mean at title of thread of a rainy week for Caribbean is not only in the Eastern Caribbean but the whole basin as there is ample deep moisture combined with the tail of invest 90L.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1041 AM AST SUN MAY 23 2010

.UPDATE...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS WERE EVIDENT
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS MOVING NORTH...APPROACHING THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF PUERTO RICO. WINDS ARE SHIFTING MORE TO THE
SOUTH THIS MORNING...AND ARE SOUTHWEST ALREADY ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AS
DEEP MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG HEATING...AND LOCAL
EFFECTS. SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO FORECAST GRIDS REFLECTING THIS
SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER DIURNAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH...INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ACROSS TJMZ...TJBQ
AND TJSJ DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

[cycloneye]

Its raining hard with thunder in San Juan this afternoon. Moist South flow caused by 90L combined with local effects is causing this.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1215 PM AST SUN MAY 23 2010

PRC021-029-031-033-061-087-119-127-139-231915-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0133.100523T1615Z-100523T1915Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CANOVANAS PR-CAROLINA PR-
CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-LOIZA PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
1215 PM AST SUN MAY 23 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TRUJILLO ALTO...GUAYNABO...CANOVANAS...CAROLINA...
CATANO...SAN JUAN...LOIZA AND RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 315 PM AST

* AT 1214 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...AT LEAST UNTIL
3:15 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC021-031-061-087-127-139-232015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0031.100523T1625Z-100523T2015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1225 PM AST SUN MAY 23 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON
TRUJILLO ALTO
GUAYNABO
CAROLINA
SAN JUAN
LOIZA

* UNTIL 415 PM AST

* AT 1218 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WILL MOVE
OVER THE SAME AREAS. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TWO INCHES OF RAIN OR
MORE IN AN HOUR. SHARP RISES ARE ALREADY BEING SEEN ON THE RIO
PIEDRAS RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1838 6618 1847 6609 1846 6595 1840 6597
1833 6599 1834 6619

$$

ROSA

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
222 PM AST SUN MAY 23 2010

PRC017-054-091-101-145-232115-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0134.100523T1822Z-100523T2115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FLORIDA PR-MOROVIS PR-BARCELONETA PR-MANATI PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
222 PM AST SUN MAY 23 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
FLORIDA...MOROVIS...BARCELONETA...MANATI AND VEGA BAJA

* UNTIL 515 PM AST

* AT 221 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...AT LEAST UNTIL
5:15 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

As forecast for some days,a wet pattern for the Caribbean is instore.Read highlighted paragrah.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST SUN MAY 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE AREA. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES
MAY FORM INTHE SW CARIBBEAN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TRACK VERY
SLOWLY IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF HISPANIOLA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM FCST REASONING FROM PAST DAYS.
VERY HUMID AIR AND LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH SCT/NRMS AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED. TSTMS WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND TRACK SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AS
MID LEVEL WINDS STAY FROM THE WSW.

BY THE END OF THE NEW WORK WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT AS BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRES FORMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. BULK OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BUT CAN`T RULED OUT SOME MCS
ACTIVITY AFFECTING PARTS OF THE ISLAND. A SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
LATER IN THE WEEK MOST LIKELY INDUCED BY THE LARGE UPPER TROF FCST
TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE ATLC. GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROF
AND EXTREMELY HIGH PWAT VALUES FCST THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED VERY CLOSELY ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE
MODELS WITH THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AT JMZ/JBQ AND JSJ WITH VCTS EACH AFTERNOON.
TSTMS MOVING OFF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAY AFFECT JBQ AND JMZ BY
12Z MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT ATLC WATERS AND 1-3 FT CARIBBEAN WATERS BUT
FORECAST TO INCREASE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA UP TO 5 FT BY THE 28TH.
TSTMS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE ATLC WATERS THE MAIN HAZARD.

[FireBird]

Hey Guys/ Gals, just wondering...
The posts concerning the upcoming possible rain event seem to link the SW Caribbean with Hispaniola and/ or Dominican Republic. Am I reading that correctly? To me, my location in Trinidad puts me at SE Caribbean. If there's any Caribbean I thought of as SW, I'm thinking the ABC islands.
Has my geography gone awry?
And if the rain event comes through for Eastern Caribbean, how far south you guys think it'll be?
Just wanna be prepared. Thanks guys.

[cycloneye]

Hey Guys/ Gals, just wondering...
The posts concerning the upcoming possible rain event seem to link the SW Caribbean with Hispaniola and/ or Dominican Republic. Am I reading that correctly? To me, my location in Trinidad puts me at SE Caribbean. If there's any Caribbean I thought of as SW, I'm thinking the ABC islands.
Has my geography gone awry?
And if the rain event comes through for Eastern Caribbean, how far south you guys think it'll be?
Just wanna be prepared. Thanks guys.

First welcome to the thread for members in the Caribbean and Central America. It all depends on the system 90L how it moves to then the tail from it moves.It will be a long tail as there is a trough in the Caribbean that will help to cause deep moisture in the Caribbean. Lets see if Trinidad & Tobago gets some of this weather in the comming days.

[Gustywind]

Guadeloupe back to green code meaning that nothing bad will occur while the Northern Leewards are always under an yellow alert...for a risk of strong showers thunderstorms!
Msbee what's the weather in the Northern Leewards?