SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[vbhoutex]

NWS does not seem too bullish or concerned with the rainfall/flooding potential overnight.

I am not a pro met, but in my opinion, this has "gotcha" written all over it. It's these stationary warm-core systems that can dump tremendous amounts of rain somewhere, especially where storms train or core rains setup. I think there should a flood watch because somebody is going to get dumped-on overnight. And my non-scientific theory is that since there isn't much concern over this....watch out! Somebody will wake-up tomorrow and wonder what happened.

This reminds me so much of Allison that it is scary. I know the parameters are not all the same but I am sure having deja vu looking at all of this. I'm curious why the warm core surface low isn't being mentioned anymore. Now they are talking about mid and upper low which is located right over my son's house in Cypress according to Ch 13. I hope we are wrong and that no core rains develop, but the situation sure looks ripe for that. I'd welcome a pro-met chiming in here.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Lets hope the clouds dont clear by morning with this low still hanging around. The heat Will brew up some mean t storms by around noon if so. Just woke up from a long nap and im surprised the LOW hasnt filled in yet

[Flyinman]

It has not filled in yet but has been trying to very slowly all day. The activity has definitely increased in the last several hours. All day long a majority has been near Bryan with scattered storms popping up. Now there is another large area beginning to form closer Houston. As with most low's the activity is at night. This does remind me of Allison a bit but more like several years ago when I lived in Beaumont. We had a low sitting over us for days and would see very little rain during the day. However from 10:00 pm to about 7:00 am it was not uncommon to pick up 3 to 6 inches.

[southerngale]

I got a little rain overnight, but hopefully, the bulk of it will hold off until later tonight.

Game 1 of the Regional Finals High School Baseball tonight - Jasper vs Orangefield

GO JASPER!

[jasons2k]

I've had an additional .49" today since this morning...it's starting to add-up. 1.57" so far.

[srainhoutx]

Hmm...

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/03/10 2234Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 2215Z RUMINSKI
.
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...HEAVY RAIN THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING WITH VORTEX OVER EAST TEXAS
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...VERTICALLY STACKED VORTEX FORMED OUT OF
REMAINS OF LAST NIGHTS MCS IS NEAR KDWH. LITTLE MVMNT NOTED WITH SYSTEM
CENTER PAST 6 HRS OR SO. GOES/GPS DERIVED PW LOOP SHOWS HIGHEST PW/S
SHIFTING E WITH CNVTN IN THE NRN/CENTRAL GULF BUT WRAPPING BACK AND
EXPANDING OVER E TX AND LA. ALL OF LA AND ADJACENT E TX SHOWING VALUES
ARND 2.1".
.
CNVTN HAS BEEN FILLING IN WITH CLD TOP TEMPS COOLING SOMEWHAT OVER E
TX FROM HOUSTON TO NRN JASPER COUNTIES. BEST SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
NOTED OVER THIS AREA AND THERE HAD BEEN SOME SOLAR INSOLATION EARLIER.
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT..FEEL THAT SYSTEM WILL EXHIBIT TROPICAL TRAIT
OF CNVTN CONSOLIDATING NEAR THE CENTER. GIVEN SLOW MVMNT AND DEEP MOISTURE
AVBL..2-3" PER HR RAIN RATES PSBL..
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING HEAVY RAIN THREAT AREA SHOULD
BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2230Z TO 0130Z..HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...PLACEMENT NOT CERTAIN BUT FEEL CONFIDENT THAT HEAVY RAIN
WILL OCCUR FROM THE HOUSTON METRO AREA NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SABINE AND
NEWTON. AREAL COVERAGE MAY NOT EXPAND MUCH FROM WHAT IT IS NOW BUT SLOW
MVMNT AND REPEAT ACTIVITY WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY ACCUMULATION.

[Flyinman]

Where are they considering the center at this point? It still looks to me a little Southwest of my location. We need rain but not any sort of flooding event.

[srainhoutx]

Almost an inch of rainfall tonight for my lawn! Sort of makes up for what I missed last night. Certainly a 'tropical feel' IMHO.

[HouTXmetro]

If I had to guess, the center appears to over Galveston Bay now.

[HouTXmetro]

Maybe not.....looks like a rapid increase in convection right over houston...could get interesting.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Big tropical shower just rolled through here. Its awkward to look at the radar expecting to se a line of storms and its barely a dot on the radar!

[vbhoutex]

Last time I looked at radar if placed the low over downtown, but it is definitely moving East. The core rains have not materialized yet fortunately, but I've seen them start up late at night too so...???

[vbhoutex]

Maybe not.....looks like a rapid increase in convection right over houston...could get interesting.

I'm not seeing the rapid increase in convection, but a definite increase is occurring. I wonder if this could be the start of a core event. I hope not. The low appeared to be moving East earlier, but it looks stationary to me now.

[HouTXmetro]

Maybe not.....looks like a rapid increase in convection right over houston...could get interesting.

I'm not seeing the rapid increase in convection, but a definite increase is occurring. I wonder if this could be the start of a core event. I hope not. The low appeared to be moving East earlier, but it looks stationary to me now.

Agreed....that would be the worst case scenario for core rain event over Urban Houston.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Why would convection increase at night like we talked about earlier? I know ive seen it happen just curious though. Im pretty positive that if its hanging around by tomorrow morning, look for some very locally heavy rains in bands around this low.

[Yankeegirl]

I dont really see any development, except the line is that moving into La and some of East Texas? Not sure, just what I am seeing. We were in Galveston all day, beautiful weahter and NO tar! Got more rainy as we got into the Houston area around 630 tonight.... Got a good downpour here after we got home, but didnt look like alot while we were gone.... IS there supposed to be more to develop later?

[vbhoutex]

Fortunately no core rains developed last night like what happens sometimes with these systems.I don't know if that is because the atmosphere in this area had already been worked over or if(I think I am correct)it is because the system lost its surface characteristics which had been mentioned earlier. Anyway we got some needed rain and not bad problems from it. The ULL is now over SC LA and moving E.

[somethingfunny]

Did any of the models see this low coming? Our forecast in Dallas was supposed to be rain-free building up to a stretch of 100-105 temps this weekend....then on Wednesday was the first mention I saw of a weak ULL traversing from Lubbock - San Angelo - Houston area....set off a bunch of storms NW, W, SW, S of town...then yesterday we remained under the cloud cover and didn't even hit 90! Now the mets have mentioned that if this Low stays put, we may not see any 100s at all this weekend!

We've all been caught by surprise by certain behaviors of systems, but it seems like everybody's surprised that this low even exists!

[jasons2k]

I was surpised to wake-up to sunshine. I read elsewhere that the low still had some cold air aloft and had not completed the transition to a warm-core low. That may explain the lack of core rains...

[CajunMama]

Woke up this morning to storms and there was no sleeping through them. Sunshine out there now but to the east and southeast the line of storms is now pretty much stationary and training. There's a flashflood warning out for st. mary parish with up to 3" of rain per hour coming down.