SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[srainhoutx]

Fairly close to vbhoutex's house...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
454 PM CDT SUN JUN 6 2010

TXZ213-227-062300-
FORT BEND-HARRIS-
454 PM CDT SUN JUN 6 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 448 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...MEMORIAL...ADDICKS...
WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...TOWN WEST...SUGAR LAND...STAFFORD...SPRING
VALLEY...RICHMOND...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...PECAN GROVE...MISSION
BEND...MEADOWS...KATY...JERSEY VILLAGE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...
HILSHIRE VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE AND BELLAIRE.

[vbhoutex]

Currently having an old fashioned knock down drag out thunderstorm here in my area of Houston. Looks to be a slow mover, which concerning, since we are having a TORRENTIAL DELUGE right now. We've had at least an inch of rain in the last 15 minutes according to the gauge. It needs to slow down or stop soon or we will start to have some localized flooding. Radar indicates areas to my SE have been under the gun for quite a while so reports from there of flooding would not be surprising.

[srainhoutx]

Missed this one while outside cooking on the grill...

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
458 PM CDT SUN JUN 6 2010

TXC201-062300-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0027.100606T2158Z-100606T2300Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARRIS TX-
458 PM CDT SUN JUN 6 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 455 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING NEAR HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE.

THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN HOUSTON HAVE
PRODUCED RAINFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND MAY CAUSE
MINOR STREET FLOODING.

[vbhoutex]

For a while I thought this would miss your area Srain, but now radar indicates that is not the case. Anything there yet? The rain keeps going from torrential to medium to torrential to light as the core of the system skirts just to my SW. Definitely have had over an inch here as the tube has overflowed into the cylinder of my CoCoRahs gauge. The inside tube holds one inch and the outside cylinder will hold up to 10".

[srainhoutx]

Just some light rain showers vb. Although it has delayed the cooking of the shrimp on the grill.

[srainhoutx]

Rain chances for today look to be a bit more wide spread than what we have seen the past several days. The Upper Low appears to be located just to the SW of Galveston this morning. The 6Z WRF suggests that showers/storms will fire off around mid day and continue through the evening and perhaps into the overnight hours as well...we shall see...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFRAD_6z/jloop.html

[vbhoutex]

This morning's email from Jeff:

Potential increasing for heavy rains through Thursday.

Well defined upper low over S TX is moving slowly westward this morning with copious moisture streaming northward into TX on the east side of this feature. GOES sounder shows 2.0-2.25” PWS over the western Gulf of Mexico surging toward the TX coast. Most coastal stations already have upper 70 to low 80 degree dewpoints in place making it about as sticky as it gets in these parts. Favorable position of the upper low over S TX will bring good onshore moisture advection today coupled with strong morning heating and upper air divergence on the east side of the low all point to an active seabreeze event. Ongoing offshore activity 80-100 miles SSE of Galveston indicate the surge of tropical moisture while showers have already developed in Jefferson County suggesting some of this moisture is already making landfall.

Expect numerous showers/thunderstorms to develop by late morning/early afternoon as the seabreeze begins to move inland and trigger temperatures are exceeded. Best coverage will be from Palacios to Huntsville where deepest tropical moisture will surge inland. Should see things calm down toward sunset, but not for long as incredibly moist air mass (PWS 2.2-2.3 inches) arrives tonight. Upper low over S TX will stop its westward movement and begin to track NNE Tuesday. Feel the moist air mass in place along with the typical nocturnal coastal speed convergence will get things going along the coast late tonight/early Tuesday morning. At the same time, deep tropical moisture begins to transform the current S TX low into a more “tropical” type feature with warm rain production…and the potential for the infamous nocturnal core rains near the center. Feel tonight the state should escape such a feature as the ingredients continue to come together, but by Tuesday night everything will be in place.

Weak low will be situated in the region bounded by Del Rio, Austin, and Victoria by late Tuesday afternoon. Models show very light upper levels winds (<20kts) over the top of this low with 20-30kts of southerly low level flow feeding moisture into the eastern side of the low Tuesday evening. Saturated soundings, high PWS air mass, and good upper level divergence all point to a good potential for nocturnal core rains Tuesday night near the center of the low and again Wednesday night. Way too hard to pinpoint the location this far out, but it appears such activity will remain west of our region…although not by far. Models have been showing hints at a few significant QPF bombs along the track of the low and I suspect a couple of locations from S TX to along and E of I-35 are going to get hit hard in the next 3-4 days. Such core rainfalls are notorious for producing incredible amounts of rainfall and have resulted in devastating flash flooding and river flooding. Would not be surprised to see a 6-12 inch event a couple of times along the track of this feature.

Across most of SE TX, feel the best course of action is to go with 40% at all times day and night through Friday with a very moist air mass in place, it is not going to take much to get things going. Best coverage will be along the seabreeze during the afternoon hours, but would not rule out things getting going along the coast in the early morning hours along the coastal speed convergence axis. Or course any wobbling of the low to our west closer into our region would bring the threat of much more significant nighttime rainfall and much higher QPF values and potential for flooding.

Extended:

Upper feature will gradually shear out over C TX by the end of the week, with moisture levels gradually lowering as sub-tropical ridging attempts to build in from the SE US. Models are likely drying the area a bit too fast, so it seems best to carry 30/40% each day into next weekend. Some hints at a fairly decent tropical wave arriving into the western Gulf of Mexico early next week…if this feature pans out, subsidence ahead of the wave could reduce rain chances over the weekend and back winds into the E and NE along the coast…a small reminder that hurricane season is here.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1006 AM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

TXC201-071600-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0028.100607T1506Z-100607T1600Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARRIS TX-
1006 AM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT

* AT 1004 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING NEAR CROSBY.

THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CROSBY AREA HAVE PRODUCED RAINFALL TOTALS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE LAST HOUR. WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM...MINOR FLOODING MAY DEVELOP OVER THE ADVISORY
AREA.

[srainhoutx]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
300 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

TXC039-167-201-072200-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0029.100607T2000Z-100607T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARRIS TX-BRAZORIA TX-GALVESTON TX-
300 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 258 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING NEAR FRIENDSWOOD AND LEAGUE CITY.

THESE STORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING NORTH WITH OTHER STORMS FORMING OVER
THE SAME AREA. THESE NEW STORMS MAY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA THAT
HAS ALREADY HAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN AN HOUR.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like a day of radar watching ahead. I found it interesting that HGX mentioned that the Upper Low may stall somewhere between San Antonio and College Station over night tonight. I also noticed that HGX has updated the aviation forecast to include heavy rainfall for today and tomorrow. Could make for a tricky afternoon commute if the rains move in as expected.

[srainhoutx]

HPC QPF Discussion...

...SRN TX...

THE MDLS ARE WELL-CLUSTERED WITH THE IDEA OF TAKING A WELL-DEFINED
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTH TX AND LIFTING THIS FEATURE NEWRD
INTO SOUTHEAST TX BY WED MORNING. THE UPPER DYNAMICS WITH THIS
FEATURE AND BROAD UPPER LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH A VRY MOIST
AMS...PWS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES... AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST A BKN AXIS OF CNVCTN FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TX.
ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING A SOLID CLUSTER OF CONVECTION/HEAVY
RAIN IS SLIDING NORTH ACROSS EXTREME SRN TX AND THE ECMWF/GFS HAD
THE BEST HANDLING OF THIS ACTIVITY... WITH THE GFS ACTUALLY
DEPICTING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK QPF AMOUNTS. HPC QPF GENERALLY
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ECMWF/SREF MEAN/ENSBC QPF SOLNS HERE GIVEN THE
EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CNVCTN AND HI MSTR IN PLACE.

[vbhoutex]

Based on Jeff's analysis(below) I am becoming concerned we may see a large core rain event develop. Definitely gonna have an eye on the radar today and tonight.

Excessive rainfall and flash flood threat increasing across Texas.

Upper level low over S TX will move slowly NNE today with copious moisture over the western Gulf of Mexico streaming northward into the region. Already very active this morning around Matagorda Bay where overnight MVC spread a band of heavy rainfall northward across Victoria and Calhoun counties…now into Matagorda and Jackson Counties arcing WNW toward San Antonio. Radar out of CRP shows another strong line of thunderstorms over the western Gulf racing NNE toward Matagorda Bay at 40mph with strong winds, while BRO radar shows additional thunderstorms developing in lines from King Ranch to South Padre Island. Position of the upper low favors the lower to mid coast for excessive rainfall today in training bands. GOES sounder shows incredible PW advection of near 2.4 inches over the western Gulf toward the region from Palacios to Rockport today. Threat for cell training, saturated air mass, and upper air divergence on the east side of the low support good rain chances over the entire region today with the most favored area from Rockport to Wharton. Widespread 2-3 inches of rain in quick fashion with isolated amounts of 6 inches will be possible especially where cell training occurs.

Upper feature will be positioned between San Antonio and College Station overnight tonight and slow toward a stall under very weak steering aloft. Very tropical air mass transitions the system into “warm core” or nearly “tropical” suggestive of pure warm rainfall processes and nighttime core rain events. Light winds aloft combined with 30-40kts of 850mb SE flow will transport good low level convergence toward the low center after dark. Suspect tonight will be the first core rain event somewhere over the coastal bend, central TX, or the western sections of SE TX. Moisture transport and coastal speed convergence ping the region around Matagorda Bay stretching NNW toward Austin as the most likely location for a big event tonight. Will broad brush 2-4” across the entire region tonight into Wednesday, but where any core rains set up 6-12” will be possible in 4-6 hours leading to rapid flash flooding and possible river flooding.

Low feature will move slowly NNE on Wednesday and be located over NE TX by Thursday afternoon. Wednesday night will favor another potential core rain event somewhere over the eastern part of TX bounded by Dallas to the north, Austin to the west, and Houston to the south. The most favored location appears to be in the region from Waco toward Huntsville. Elsewhere moist air mass will continue to surge out of the western Gulf of Mexico with widespread rains again at nearly anytime through Thursday.

Low shears out to the NE on Friday as trough digs into the western US and sub-tropical high builds westward across the Gulf toward coastal TX. Feel moisture levels will be slow to come down, but will lower enough to reduce rain chances by Friday to along the afternoon seabreeze. Daily afternoon thunderstorms will be common through the weekend…with some days favoring others as the sub-tropical high lingers near the region.

A tropical wave will move across the Gulf of Mexico early next week with potential impacts on the TX coast by Monday or Tuesday.

QPF:

Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4” will be common over the next 48-72 hours with isolated amounts up to 12-15 inches where cell training or core rainfall events develop. Most favored area for significant rains and flash flooding should be along and west of I-45 and east of I-35 or in the region from Matagorda Bay to Waco. Such systems in the past have acted very much like decaying tropical cyclones and have produced incredible amounts of rainfall.

Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all of CRP’s area including Victoria and Calhoun counties westward. Suspect additional watched will be needed for portions of SC, C, and SE TX later today or Wednesday.

[jasons2k]

Looks like today we finally get slammed. I don't see anything stopping the "blob" moving-in from the coast -- nothing to "taint" it unlike some of the storms yesterday.

[Tireman4]

Great. Good thing I run indoors for the summer. LOL

[srainhoutx]

A bit rough just S of Freeport...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
919 AM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
GALVESTON BAY...
COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT

* AT 919 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR
GREATER FROM 7 NM NORTHEAST OF MATAGORDA BAY TO 58 NM SOUTH
OF FREEPORT... MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS. AT 900 AM
CDT...A BUOY 60 MILES SOUTH OF FREEPORT RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 35
KNOTS WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
914 AM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

TXZ226-235>237-081515-
BRAZORIA-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-WHARTON-
914 AM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 910 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR VANDERBILT TO THE SOUTH
NUCLEAR PLANT TO NEAR MATAGORDA MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...SOUTH TEXAS NUCLEAR
PLANT...MORALES...MIDFIELD...LOUISE...LAKE TEXANA DAM...DANEVANG...
CORDELE...BLESSING...WEST COLUMBIA...SWEENY...RICHWOOD...QUINTANA...
LAKE JACKSON...LA WARD...FREEPORT...EL CAMPO...EDNA...CLUTE AND BAY
CITY.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1004 AM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

TXZ213-227-237-238-081600-
BRAZORIA-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-
1004 AM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 1000 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR NEEDVILLE
TO NEAR ROSHARON TO DANBURY TO SAN LUIS PASS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 TO 30 MPH.

WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...SCHLITTERBAHN...
ROSHARON...PELICAN ISLAND...JULIFF...GALVESTON STATE PARK...CHOCOLATE
BAYOU...GALVESTON...WEBSTER...TOWN WEST...THOMPSONS...TEXAS CITY...
SUGAR LAND...STAFFORD...SANTA FE...ROSENBERG...RICHMOND...PECAN
GROVE...PEARLAND...NASSAU BAY...MISSOURI CITY...MISSION BEND...
MEADOWS...MANVEL...LIVERPOOL...LEAGUE CITY...LA MARQUE...JAMAICA
BEACH...IOWA COLONY...HITCHCOCK...HILLCREST...FRIENDSWOOD...FRESNO...
FIRST COLONY...DICKINSON...BONNEY...ARCOLA AND ALVIN.

[Dave]

srainhoutx I'd help you in Texas but can't get out of the Ohio Valley long enough to do anything so far this month!

[srainhoutx]

I know Dave. You have been very busy I see. We are just hoping that a 'core rain event' does not unfold.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1013 AM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1045 AM CDT

* AT 1009 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES EAST OF BRAZOS
BEND STATE PARK...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANVEL...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO THE MEDICAL CENTER...RELIANT PARK...MINUTE MAID PARK...
JOHNSON SPACE CENTER...HOBBY AIRPORT...HERMAN PARK...THE
GALLERIA...ELLINGTON FIELD...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...WEBSTER...
TAYLOR LAKE VILLAGE...STAFFORD...SPRING VALLEY...SOUTHSIDE PLACE...
SOUTH HOUSTON...SHOREACRES...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...PEARLAND...
PASADENA...NASSAU BAY...MISSOURI CITY...LEAGUE CITY...HUNTERS CREEK
VILLAGE...HOUSTON...HEDWIG VILLAGE...FRIENDSWOOD...FRESNO...EL
LAGO...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...BROOKSIDE VILLAGE...BELLAIRE AND
ALVIN.

[Dave]

I know Dave. You have been very busy I see. We are just hoping that a 'core rain event' does not unfold.

So are we. Take care down there! Heading to the office in 30 mins, will check in from somewhere sometime. Got video camera in car now, still have to get gps setup but running out of time to work on it today.