Texas Spring 2013

[southerngale]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued here a couple of hours ago. Tonight's 30% chance of rain from this morning is now 60% chance, possibly severe. It looks like it's coming further south than originally expected.

[Peanut432]

Anyone got any a feel for how things play out in the panhandle region and south plains region on Thursday? Already has a slight risk on the SPC website and could have helicities around 300 along a retreating front and cape of around 3000 if I'm not mistaken

[ravyrn]

Anyone got any a feel for how things play out in the panhandle region and south plains region on Thursday? Already has a slight risk on the SPC website and could have helicities around 300 along a retreating front and cape of around 3000 if I'm not mistaken

Deserving of a new thread?

[Peanut432]

Anyone got any a feel for how things play out in the panhandle region and south plains region on Thursday? Already has a slight risk on the SPC website and could have helicities around 300 along a retreating front and cape of around 3000 if I'm not mistaken

Deserving of a new thread?

Well there is this from the Lubbock AFD

LONG TERM...
INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL TREND MORE BLOCKY LATER
THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO LONGWAVE RIDGING EMERGING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS ALL THE WAY NORTH TO THE OIL SANDS OF FORT
MCMURRAY, ALBERTA. FORTUNATELY...THE SOUTH PLAINS OF TEXAS WILL
FALL UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL JET RESIDING SOUTH OF THE REGION OF
STRONG HEIGHT RISES. THIS RIDGE WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SUBJECTING THE CWA TO SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF A SEMI-STATIONARY TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
UPSHOT OF THIS IS AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR OUR DOMAIN
BEGINNING THURSDAY BEFORE THE MEAN DRYLINE BECOMES SITUATED WEST
OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN THEREAFTER...ULTIMATELY GIVING OUR FRIENDS
IN OKLAHOMA A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM THEIR RECENT RASH OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS THIS THURSDAY AND
CONCERNS THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE CONVECTION. DESPITE THE
500MB RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS...THIS AREA IS
UNDER A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
BE OVER THE REGION. AMPLE MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL TX WILL BE
CHANNELED WEST-NORTHWEST WED AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT LEADING TO
RICH PWATS BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A DRYLINE AND CRUCIAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BACKDOOR SLOWLY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. HAVE
KEPT TIMING OF THIS FRONT ON TRACK WITH EARLIER FORECASTS FAVORING
STRONG LL CONVERGENCE OVER OUR N-NERN COUNTIES BY PEAK HEATING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOTHING SHORT OF IMPRESSIVE FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL
PROVE CRITICAL FOR A TORNADIC THREAT AS 0-3KM HELICITIES NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY ARE SHOWN TO REACH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2. DID ADD SEVERE
MENTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LATE THURSDAY FOR THE NERN QUARTER
OF OUR CWA NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WHERE STRONG CAPE AND PWATS AOA ONE
INCH APPEAR LIKELY.

[southerngale]

It's not quite here yet, but it's getting loud outside.

[southerngale]

And now a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for me, but the storms are still a bit west of me. The thunder and lightning is increasing.

[weatherdude1108]

Cap held in much of Texas. Starting tomorrow night coverage of thunderstorms will grow as the main upper dynamics comes through and provide the best lift through Tuesday night. Northeast Texas seems to be the winners in terms of coverage.

I remembered what you wrote the other day. Looks like northeast Texas got the brunt of the coverage. You pretty much PEGGED IT -- SPOT ON, way before the SPC did! Nice job Ntxw!

[Ntxw]

Thanks weatherdude! It wasn't anything amazing on my part I just took the various model's qpf output and plugged it accordingly to severe weather parameters . Quieter pattern right on through Memorial day weekend. The high plains of Texas will have on and off thunderstorm chances, if these storms congeal each evening there's a small chance of MCS activity maybe getting as far as I-35 an any given night. But for the most part I wouldn't count on it and keep things warm and dry.

As for summer, well for the most part the heat will remain in the southern Rockies and Sonoran desert. No sign of any heat wave for Texas through June 1st (major populated areas).

[gboudx]

Thanks weatherdude! It wasn't anything amazing on my part

I appreciate the humble attitude, but imo, S2K should give you some special title so as to not be lumped in with someone like me. Maybe a color change like the pro-mets get, and something like, "Special Contributor. C'mon Portastorm, make it happen!

[weatherdude1108]

I think Portastorm needs to recognize weather talent like this, more than just a "Participant" award!

Meanwhile "back at the ranch," watched heavy rain to our north last night. Watching heavy rain to our west and southwest this morning. Here we sit again in the central/south central Texas donut hole barrier of endless evaporation.

Maybe the barrier will be breached, maybe not. Hmmm. I'm just glad about this nice surprise of rain on the radar this close! Wasn't supposed to do anything until late next week.

But in all seriousness, they need the rain much more out west than we do! It looks like the parched Rio Grande is getting a nice soaking!

[Portastorm]

I did recognize Ntxw's talent back last fall when I allowed him to open up the North Texas office of the PWC! Is their a higher honor?!

All joking aside, young Ntxw has shown good skills around these parts which most of us recognize. I think the issue of a special badge or recognition for highly talented amateurs may be something worth taking up with the other mods and admins. I'm happy to do that. I see some challenges in what the parameters might be to be recognized for such an honor as we all are subjective in our evaluations of each other. For example, someone with a degree in meteorology can be easily recognized as a professional meteorologist. But what defines a highly skilled amateur? It's subjective. Nonetheless, let me explore the option further.

Now back to the weather ... I guess the shortwaves out west and that trough in NE Mexico was poorly modeled. Yesterday at this time, our rain chances in Austin were nil. Last night they were increased to 20%. I woke up this morning to 50%!

[weatherdude1108]

I know! Those are the kind of surprises that I like!

In other water-related news, I caught a blurb from Bob Rose on his LCRA weather blog yesterday:

"For what it’s worth, I thought I would mention that some of the long-range forecast solutions are calling for some sort of tropical weather development in the southern Gulf of Mexico or western Caribbean Sea in about 10 days to 2 weeks. It’s way too early to have much confidence in this forecast, but there are a couple of features in the large scale pattern that would promote such development. Stay tuned for more updates."

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

[Portastorm]

Very heavy rains falling here in downtown Austin this Friday afternoon as we're under a FFW until 5:30 p.m. Also see reports that a person was struck by lightning out at ABIA.

[Rgv20]

Rain was not forecast for today and there is a pretty good line of Thunderstorms moving thru Zapata and Jim Hogg County....Hopefully the rain can make it thru the RGV!

[weatherdude1108]

Very heavy rains falling here in downtown Austin this Friday afternoon as we're under a FFW until 5:30 p.m. Also see reports that a person was struck by lightning out at ABIA.

We're on the eastern fringe of the warning (for all practical purposes) for now. I got a pop up on my computer that it's extended to 6:30. Raining at work, and I think at the Weatherdude Center according to radar returns. Careful out there if you're in the area!


"THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR.
WEST CNTL CALDWELL COUNTY.
EAST CNTL COMAL COUNTY.
WESTERN GUADALUPE COUNTY.
HAYS COUNTY.
TRAVIS COUNTY.

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT.

* AT 244 PM CDT.NATL WEATHER SVC METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETERMINED THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING ACROSS THE SAME AREAS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. HEAVY RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE AUSTIN METRO AREA.EXTENDING SO. ALONG I-35 & TO NEAR SEGUIN IN GUADALUPE COUNTY. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE BY AROUND 530 PM CDT.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE.
AUSTIN.DRIPPING SPRINGS.SAN MARCOS.SEGUIN.TANGLEWOOD FOREST.WIMBERLEY.BEE CAVE.BUDA.DRIFTWOOD.GERONIMO.
KYLE.LAGO VISTA.LAKEWAY.MANSFIELD DAM.MARTINDALE.
MCQUEENEY.ONION CREEK.ROLLINGWOOD.UHLAND.WEST LAKE HILLS.
WOODCREEK & ZORN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.

DO NOT DRIVE WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. EVEN SUVS & PICKUPS WILL BE SWEPT AWAY BY AS LITTLE AS TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER. TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN.

&&

LAT.LON 3051 9785 3049 9785 3043 9778 3044 9775
3033 9761 2942 9802 2966 9812 3036 9816
3046 9808 3051 9811 3062 9804 3062 9800

$$"

[South Texas Storms]

About 1.5 inches of rain this morning here at my house on the north side of SA! It was very much needed as I have missed out on a lot of the rain so far this month. Hopefully we can get another round tomorrow and then again next week as well.

[weatherdude1108]

The forecast (even as late as yesterday evening) was for high pressure to dominate through the weekend until late next week when the next chance of rain was forecast at 20%.

I had a gut feeling the storms in northwest Texas yesterday afternoon and the subsequent related outflows of reported 90mph wind gusts near Abilene were going to have some kind of an effect on the weather today in central and south central Texas. I didn't know what exactly, but I thought there might be some kind of instability left over from the outflow boundaries, but not sure how the high pressure cap was going to spin everything into the forecast.

Anyway, interesting how quickly the ewx discussion changes in a matter of less than 24 hours! Point is, I'm glad they were wrong yesterday!

000
FXUS64 KEWX 241942
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
242 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
THIS AFTERNOON THE MCV WAS CENTERED OVER REAL COUNTY DRIFTING NORTHWARD.
AN ASSOCIATED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM BURNET
SOUTHWARD TO NEW BRAUNFELS AND CAMPBELLTON. THE LINE WAS MOVING SLOWLY
EAST WHILE THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD. THIS IS LEADING
TO CELL TRAINING RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE
OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THRU THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS HEATING
INTERACTS WITH PWS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS OF
30 TO 40 MPH WERE ALSO OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE. THE SLOW
MOVING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS ON SUNDAY BRINGING AN END TO OUR RAIN CHANCES. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH
OF A WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL TROF. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

[weatherdude1108]

About 1.5 inches of rain this morning here at my house on the north side of SA! It was very much needed as I have missed out on a lot of the rain so far this month. Hopefully we can get another round tomorrow and then again next week as well.

Awesome! My dad and brother also live on the north side of SA. They said they get over an inch. My dad said he couldn't remember the last time it rained an inch at one time at his house.

[wxman57]

Very heavy rains falling here in downtown Austin this Friday afternoon as we're under a FFW until 5:30 p.m. Also see reports that a person was struck by lightning out at ABIA.

Lots of good rain for the dry areas of south-central TX down to the Valley.

[Tireman4]

I wonder if it will stay together for the Houston area...David Paul thinks so....

Heads up: Big thunderstorms in central Texas are moving our way. I expect a stormy evening and night. You goin' out tonight?


https://www.facebook.com/KHOUDavidPaul