Texas Spring 2021

[bubba hotep]

TORNADO WARNING NEAR CADDO, TX

That cell looks like it's going to track out of the watch box and towards DFW. The 12z sounding from FWD shows a minimal cap in place but otherwise an impressive parameter space for this time of day.

[InfernoFlameCat]

SPC said 22000 thousand J/Kg CAPE.

Low-level lift and vorticity should be maximized near the boundary,
locally enlarging hodographs within an already favorable broader-
scale CAPE/shear regime for supercells. Diurnal heating along and
east of the boundary, rich low-level moisture (surface dew points
commonly upper 60s to low 70s F and 1.5- to 2-inch PW), and steep
midlevel lapse rates, will support MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg over
north TX to 22000-3000 J/kg over the Hill Country and Rio Grande --
all amidst 50-60-kt effective-shear magnitudes. Though with weaker
moisture and deep shear, steep midlevel lapse rates and at least
marginal CAPE will support severe hail and perhaps gusts or a
tornado possible this afternoon and evening with convection
developing on either side of the cold front (west of the warm-sector
boundary activity) over OK and northwest TX.

[Iceresistance]

SPC said 22000 thousand J/Kg CAPE.

Low-level lift and vorticity should be maximized near the boundary,
locally enlarging hodographs within an already favorable broader-
scale CAPE/shear regime for supercells. Diurnal heating along and
east of the boundary, rich low-level moisture (surface dew points
commonly upper 60s to low 70s F and 1.5- to 2-inch PW), and steep
midlevel lapse rates, will support MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg over
north TX to 22000-3000 J/kg over the Hill Country and Rio Grande --
all amidst 50-60-kt effective-shear magnitudes. Though with weaker
moisture and deep shear, steep midlevel lapse rates and at least
marginal CAPE will support severe hail and perhaps gusts or a
tornado possible this afternoon and evening with convection
developing on either side of the cold front (west of the warm-sector
boundary activity) over OK and northwest TX.

It's an Error, they were supposed to say 2200-3000 J/kg CAPE.

[InfernoFlameCat]

SPC said 22000 thousand J/Kg CAPE.

Low-level lift and vorticity should be maximized near the boundary,
locally enlarging hodographs within an already favorable broader-
scale CAPE/shear regime for supercells. Diurnal heating along and
east of the boundary, rich low-level moisture (surface dew points
commonly upper 60s to low 70s F and 1.5- to 2-inch PW), and steep
midlevel lapse rates, will support MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg over
north TX to 22000-3000 J/kg over the Hill Country and Rio Grande --
all amidst 50-60-kt effective-shear magnitudes. Though with weaker
moisture and deep shear, steep midlevel lapse rates and at least
marginal CAPE will support severe hail and perhaps gusts or a
tornado possible this afternoon and evening with convection
developing on either side of the cold front (west of the warm-sector
boundary activity) over OK and northwest TX.

It's an Error, they were supposed to say 2200-3000 J/kg CAPE.

I know its just imagine 22000 CAPE J/kg that would be ridiculous.

[Iceresistance]

SPC said 22000 thousand J/Kg CAPE.

Low-level lift and vorticity should be maximized near the boundary,
locally enlarging hodographs within an already favorable broader-
scale CAPE/shear regime for supercells. Diurnal heating along and
east of the boundary, rich low-level moisture (surface dew points
commonly upper 60s to low 70s F and 1.5- to 2-inch PW), and steep
midlevel lapse rates, will support MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg over
north TX to 22000-3000 J/kg over the Hill Country and Rio Grande --
all amidst 50-60-kt effective-shear magnitudes. Though with weaker
moisture and deep shear, steep midlevel lapse rates and at least
marginal CAPE will support severe hail and perhaps gusts or a
tornado possible this afternoon and evening with convection
developing on either side of the cold front (west of the warm-sector
boundary activity) over OK and northwest TX.

It's an Error, they were supposed to say 2200-3000 J/kg CAPE.

I know its just imagine 22000 CAPE J/kg that would be ridiculous.

It would be almost psychically impossible for something like that to happen, but it would be a Multi-Billion dollar disaster to deal with

The SPC has mentioned this in the same general area with the CAPE typo error:

The greatest overall severe threat and most-favorable parameter
space should develop this afternoon and evening from north TX to the
Rio Grande Valley near DRT. In that corridor, a few tornadoes are
possible, along with large hail and damaging winds. Some of the
hail be significant (2 inches or larger diameter), especially in the
Rio Grande to southern Hill Country area, where very deep, well-
organized supercells are possible with hailstones to near 4 inches
in diameter.

[rwfromkansas]

I am in an enhanced risk in Tarrant for the first time all season, and just to the west is 5 percent tornado risk. Still, I think (hopefully) widespread heavy rain is the biggest threat. Though I wouldn't mind seeing a funnel cloud that doesn't touch down. I remember seeing one growing up just above my house right before they got on TV and issued a warning.

[gpsnowman]

Damn, the storms have been teasing us all morning long just to our northwest. Hopefully we get in on the action tonight.

[Iceresistance]

Damn, the storms have been teasing us all morning long just to our northwest. Hopefully we get in on the action tonight.

It's not JUST the DFW Snow Hole, it's also the Rain hole!

The DFW Snow Hole will now be called the DFW Dryness?

[HockeyTx82]

I am in an enhanced risk in Tarrant for the first time all season, and just to the west is 5 percent tornado risk. Still, I think (hopefully) widespread heavy rain is the biggest threat. Though I wouldn't mind seeing a funnel cloud that doesn't touch down. I remember seeing one growing up just above my house right before they got on TV and issued a warning.

I saw one trying to get going the other day. I posted about it. Went NE and went Tornado Warning in Denton County. Really creepy seeing clouds move like that.

[bubba hotep]

Enhanced expanded to include all of DFW

[HockeyTx82]

Enhanced expanded to include all of DFW

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/TX_swody1.png

Will all this rain NW of the DFW (Denton) area have any impact on the storms this afternoon? Or is the area just to juiced up?

Normally morning rain takes away some energy.

[bubba hotep]

[HockeyTx82]

https://i.ibb.co/jz6zbQS/IMG-20210428-124009.jpg

Yup, my newly installed Rachio Smart Sprinkler was supposed to water tonight. Sent me a skipped message saying 2.5 inches of rain is expected. Next water date is May 5

[Iceresistance]

Mesoscale Discussion #452

[rwfromkansas]

Seems they have some questions for DFW and north TX, but the atmosphere doesn't seem that worked over to me except for further northwest. Dewpoint is recovering nicely IMBY, and temp still climbing even with clouds and small showers earlier.

[HockeyTx82]

Interesting watch box.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0119.html

[Quixotic]

Cell south of Abilene is a monster.

[WacoWx]

Cell south of Abilene is a monster.

Its abt to be Tornado Warned.

[rwfromkansas]

Well, seems so far to be...meh for enhanced.

Abilene storm increasingly disorganized.

[Iceresistance]

Well, seems so far to be...meh for enhanced.

Abilene storm increasingly disorganized.

Meh for Enhanced? There is a very dangerous supercell near Del Rio! Packing with Tennis Ball sized hail & 70 mph wind gusts!

And 3 INCH hail has been reported near Laughlin AFB, TX