Texas Spring-2014

[ravyrn]

Aside from the pretty obvious coming Nino along the Pacific Equator, look at the dominant feature of weather. Yes you guessed, that NE Pac warm pool. Still there and better than ever. One of the great anomalous runs we have seen, and probably the greatest blocking regime in the GOA ever (recorded data) when looking at it from start to finish since a year ago. CFSv2 hangs it around indefinitely at least as far as it can see out. Thinking chances for it to remain in the fall are increasing.

Though I don't know for sure but I do wonder if we have turned the state of the North Pacific into something persistent like the late 1890s early 1900s, 1970s-1980s.

http://i57.tinypic.com/6j1to0.gif

Do you think that NE Pac warm pool will endure until next winter? I sure hope so! I loved what it brought us this past winter!

[vbhoutex]

Aside from the pretty obvious coming Nino along the Pacific Equator, look at the dominant feature of weather. Yes you guessed, that NE Pac warm pool. Still there and better than ever. One of the great anomalous runs we have seen, and probably the greatest blocking regime in the GOA ever (recorded data) when looking at it from start to finish since a year ago. CFSv2 hangs it around indefinitely at least as far as it can see out. Thinking chances for it to remain in the fall are increasing.

Though I don't know for sure but I do wonder if we have turned the state of the North Pacific into something persistent like the late 1890s early 1900s, 1970s-1980s.

http://i57.tinypic.com/6j1to0.gif

Do you think that NE Pac warm pool will endure until next winter? I sure hope so! I loved what it brought us this past winter!

That could be very interesting!! Both good and bad to that if the pattern holds, at least for us in SE TX. Good in that we might actually have a Winter again and some "Winter events" to go with it and bad because despite the fact it is a pattern that brings us cold and the possibility of Winter precip it is also a dry regime for us and we are already below normal even compared to last year.

[dhweather]

Hit 33 at my house in far northern Rockwall county.

Remarkable - only managed 38.5 at the far southern end of Rockwall county. It's only 12 miles.

How high is your thermometer off the ground? I'm asking because I have a weather station that I had to mount on the edge of my gutters due to no other good place to put it. So it's roughly 11-12' off the ground. I used my laser temp reader and was getting temps around 37-38 closer to the ground. Maybe the ground warmth was making the air closer to the ground warmer. Dunno,

Mine is mounted on a pole, about 6' above the ground, about 30 feet from the house.

[Ntxw]

Aside from the pretty obvious coming Nino along the Pacific Equator, look at the dominant feature of weather. Yes you guessed, that NE Pac warm pool. Still there and better than ever. One of the great anomalous runs we have seen, and probably the greatest blocking regime in the GOA ever (recorded data) when looking at it from start to finish since a year ago. CFSv2 hangs it around indefinitely at least as far as it can see out. Thinking chances for it to remain in the fall are increasing.

Though I don't know for sure but I do wonder if we have turned the state of the North Pacific into something persistent like the late 1890s early 1900s, 1970s-1980s.

http://i57.tinypic.com/6j1to0.gif

Do you think that NE Pac warm pool will endure until next winter? I sure hope so! I loved what it brought us this past winter!

That's something worth discussing in a few months in the winter thread . For now we got to lay low and keep things mum about such talks or wxman57 will send his legions. He won't accept a repeat.

Pretty decent signal for some severe weather next week. Whether it makes it as far south as Texas is a wait and watch game.

[Ntxw]

Be on your toes this week. Severe weather parameters are not perfect but any given day could bring a surprise event starting with tomorrow. Tornado threat (as of now) doesn't appear too big, isolated but hail threat is a possibility especially later in the week. I am hoping what I am seeing from general guidance consensus comes true that Texas ends final week of April with heavy rain event(s).

[TheProfessor]

I'm usually one of the ones who advocate for heavy rain and storms, but I'm hoping not to have anything occur at the end of the week because I'm going to be touring OU this Saturday but if there is the slightest of a threat for severe weather here or there this Friday or Saturday then they're going to say no to going.

[South Texas Storms]

Larry Cosgrove thinks that Texas is going to see above average temperatures and below average rainfall this summer. He also thinks a strong El Nino will be in place by the end of this year. He said that the summer months when El Nino is developing is normally dry in Texas. Is this true Ntxw? Do you think that we will see a dry summer this year?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Aside from the pretty obvious coming Nino along the Pacific Equator, look at the dominant feature of weather. Yes you guessed, that NE Pac warm pool. Still there and better than ever. One of the great anomalous runs we have seen, and probably the greatest blocking regime in the GOA ever (recorded data) when looking at it from start to finish since a year ago. CFSv2 hangs it around indefinitely at least as far as it can see out. Thinking chances for it to remain in the fall are increasing.

Though I don't know for sure but I do wonder if we have turned the state of the North Pacific into something persistent like the late 1890s early 1900s, 1970s-1980s.

http://i57.tinypic.com/6j1to0.gif

Do you think that NE Pac warm pool will endure until next winter? I sure hope so! I loved what it brought us this past winter!

That could be very interesting!! Both good and bad to that if the pattern holds, at least for us in SE TX. Good in that we might actually have a Winter again and some "Winter events" to go with it and bad because despite the fact it is a pattern that brings us cold and the possibility of Winter precip it is also a dry regime for us and we are already below normal even compared to last year.

I think we would have more moisture still due to El nino despite the NW flow. Different layer in the atmosphere i think?

[Ntxw]

Larry Cosgrove thinks that Texas is going to see above average temperatures and below average rainfall this summer. He also thinks a strong El Nino will be in place by the end of this year. He said that the summer months when El Nino is developing is normally dry in Texas. Is this true Ntxw? Do you think that we will see a dry summer this year?

I don't agree with his philosophy here. But that is my opinion. El Nino summers are often, cooler and wet. Even if there was no El Nino the trend the past several summers has been downwards, I still would've guessed normal to slightly below. Especially with the Pacific (NE Warm pool) still in place it's quite unlikely a well above summer will occur. This just from continuing what has been persistent.

[Ntxw]

For example since 1990 here is the composite anomalies of oncoming El Nino for temperatures and rainfall. Pretty consistent with hot west, cool east.

Edit: removed maps.

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah he does think the East will be cool/wet with the West (including Texas) being hot/dry. Those precip maps don't show it being dry this summer here though.

[Ntxw]

Sorry guys, I posted the wrong averages. It's supposed to be 1981-2010. Difference is still not too drastic.





The base period I had was drier than the current base period so it appeared wetter.

[somethingfunny]

It likely does depend somewhat on the strength, position, and timing of the El Nino. I don't know enough about the years in question to draw a conclusion, but I remember El Nino 1998 and El Nino 2006 being very hot summers, but El Nino 2004 was a very wet and mild summer. On the other hand La Nina 2007 was extremely wet & mild while La Nina 2011 was the worst thing I've ever experienced. So there's certainly more at play than just "Is it El Nino? Check Y/N" here, but I don't know enough about what those factors would be. I know we're in a heck of a rainfall hole and if the severe season doesn't start really rolling with frequent multi-inch rainfalls soon, I'm moving to Saskatchewan in June.

[TheProfessor]

I thought 2006 summer was either neutral or La Niña and the summer of 2007 was an El Nino?

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: I thought 2006 summer was either neutral or La Niña and the summer of 2007 was an El Nino?

ENSO spans 2 seasons of consecutive years. The begin the second half of one year and end the first half of the next. They are typically classified and named for the first year. 2006-2007 was el nino but 2007-2008 (fall to spring the next couplet) was La nina. Some El Nino's are wet the first stretch, some are wet the second half. As to why there is no correlation, but at the very least they feature significant precip at some point.

There are other things at play too not just ENSO such as the PDO, amo, Atlantic and Pacific cyclone activity among other things

[South Texas Storms]

Several of the long range models that I've looked at recently (CFSv2, IRI Consensus, and Japanese) are showing below average rainfall across Texas this summer, with wetter than normal conditions beginning in the Fall due to El Nino. Unfortunately I think these models may be right this summer as this year has started out dry and it doesn't look like that will change anytime soon. GFS and Euro ensembles are not showing much rain for us throughout the next few weeks.

[dhweather]

Where's everyone at? CAPE values are 9000, there's a CAT 8 in the Gulf, the polar vortex moved to the west coast down by LA.


ok, back to reality, there's a chance of rain and perhaps severe weather today. I hope we get rain, and as much as possible. I'm thinking long hot dry summer, then normal to above normal fall/winter.

All bets off though if the warm pool in the NPAC remains intact.

[TheProfessor]

And lets hope we never see a CAPE of 9000, though CAPE doesn't determine everything on how bad a severe outbreak would be, a CAPE that high would be higher than it was on May 3rd 1999 in Oklahoma, which was 7500. Though I guess a category 8 hurricane would be pretty bad too, I couldn't imagine how high of a storm surge that would be. But it seems a lot less likely we would see a Cat 8 vs. seeing a CAPE reading of 9000.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Here we go:

245 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC001-027-031-035-053-063-073-085-097-099-113-119-121-139-145-
147-159-161-171-181-193-209-213-217-221-223-231-251-257-267-277-
281-289-293-299-307-309-319-327-331-333-349-367-379-387-395-397-
411-423-425-439-449-453-459-467-491-497-499-220300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0085.140421T1945Z-140422T0300Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON BELL BLANCO
BOSQUE BURNET CAMP
CHEROKEE COLLIN COOKE
CORYELL DALLAS DELTA
DENTON ELLIS FALLS
FANNIN FRANKLIN FREESTONE
GILLESPIE GRAYSON HAMILTON
HAYS HENDERSON HILL
HOOD HOPKINS HUNT
JOHNSON KAUFMAN KIMBLE
LAMAR LAMPASAS LEON
LIMESTONE LLANO MASON
MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MENARD
MILAM MILLS NAVARRO
PARKER RAINS RED RIVER
ROBERTSON ROCKWALL SAN SABA
SMITH SOMERVELL TARRANT
TITUS TRAVIS UPSHUR
VAN ZANDT WILLIAMSON WISE
WOOD
$$


ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...EWX...SJT...

[Ntxw]

Popcorn thunderstorms!

Here's something interesting for the past several cycles the euro is advertising a cold air mass associated with anomalous trof underneath Canadian blocking. Have we seen this book before? Beginning of every month and the end.