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Texas Snowman wrote:Yup, sun back out in Denison. That should help increase instability this afternoon.
Also, saw a forecast radar (not sure which one) on Twitter, it has a very healthy supercell approaching the Metroplex later today about sundown. Guess we'll see.
That's the one.
Brent wrote:dhweather wrote:Well, we can start with low dew points - it was 53 in Heath last night. It has rebounded to 65, which is more favorable, but I just do not think the atmosphere is ripe, per se. Too bad we didn't get the extra sounding in, that would be helpful in seeing how things are. The cloud cover is still here in Heath, temp 72, down 1.5 degrees in the last hour. That isn't creating any instability. I just don't think it feels right for tornado weather, maybe not even widespread supercells.
Brent, you are an Alabama boy, so as a Mississippi boy, you know what I mean when I say "tornado weather", and today ain't it.
The sun is trying to peek out here and I see blue sky but when I walked outside you could feel a cool tint to the air... definitely not tornado weather. I know exactly what you mean... on most of the bad spring outbreak days in Alabama you could just walk outside and feel a sense of doom. That's not to say there can't be a couple of tornadoes here and there, but I just don't feel it's an outbreak day(and tbh the tornado probability is 5% which is hardly high)
Now granted in Alabama we used to get low cape/high shear events in the middle of the winter with weather like this, but this isn't winter.
newtotex wrote:Brent wrote:dhweather wrote:Well, we can start with low dew points - it was 53 in Heath last night. It has rebounded to 65, which is more favorable, but I just do not think the atmosphere is ripe, per se. Too bad we didn't get the extra sounding in, that would be helpful in seeing how things are. The cloud cover is still here in Heath, temp 72, down 1.5 degrees in the last hour. That isn't creating any instability. I just don't think it feels right for tornado weather, maybe not even widespread supercells.
Brent, you are an Alabama boy, so as a Mississippi boy, you know what I mean when I say "tornado weather", and today ain't it.
The sun is trying to peek out here and I see blue sky but when I walked outside you could feel a cool tint to the air... definitely not tornado weather. I know exactly what you mean... on most of the bad spring outbreak days in Alabama you could just walk outside and feel a sense of doom. That's not to say there can't be a couple of tornadoes here and there, but I just don't feel it's an outbreak day(and tbh the tornado probability is 5% which is hardly high)
Now granted in Alabama we used to get low cape/high shear events in the middle of the winter with weather like this, but this isn't winter.
Yea both you guys, I grew up in Alabama as well, Tuscaloosa, and moved to Texas for college. I definitely know what you mean by "Tornado Weather" in Bama. I don't recall ever getting that "scary tornado weather" feeling while being in Texas that I would get in Bama, that cap always seems to be an inhibiting factor here. Partly cloudy skies with sun coming out, high dp, strong winds out of the S/SE, you could just feel it in the air, that's the conditions I always associated with tornado weather back home.
newtotex wrote:Brent wrote:dhweather wrote:Well, we can start with low dew points - it was 53 in Heath last night. It has rebounded to 65, which is more favorable, but I just do not think the atmosphere is ripe, per se. Too bad we didn't get the extra sounding in, that would be helpful in seeing how things are. The cloud cover is still here in Heath, temp 72, down 1.5 degrees in the last hour. That isn't creating any instability. I just don't think it feels right for tornado weather, maybe not even widespread supercells.
Brent, you are an Alabama boy, so as a Mississippi boy, you know what I mean when I say "tornado weather", and today ain't it.
The sun is trying to peek out here and I see blue sky but when I walked outside you could feel a cool tint to the air... definitely not tornado weather. I know exactly what you mean... on most of the bad spring outbreak days in Alabama you could just walk outside and feel a sense of doom. That's not to say there can't be a couple of tornadoes here and there, but I just don't feel it's an outbreak day(and tbh the tornado probability is 5% which is hardly high)
Now granted in Alabama we used to get low cape/high shear events in the middle of the winter with weather like this, but this isn't winter.
Yea both you guys, I grew up in Alabama as well, Tuscaloosa, and moved to Texas for college. I definitely know what you mean by "Tornado Weather" in Bama. I don't recall ever getting that "scary tornado weather" feeling while being in Texas that I would get in Bama, that cap always seems to be an inhibiting factor here. Partly cloudy skies with sun coming out, high dp, strong winds out of the S/SE, you could just feel it in the air, that's the conditions I always associated with tornado weather back home.
Texas Snowman wrote:We've certainly had such "tornado weather" here in the past, especially in the month of May, when tornadoes peak here.
Keep in mind that recent years - say from 2000 until now - are not necessarily what most springs are historically like here in Texas. We've been in an on-again, off-again decade long drought that has limited our severe weather events, particularly here in North Texas. Most of the really violent weather has been confined to central Oklahoma during that span and has stayed outside of Texas' borders.
While the number of overall Texas twisters has been up there at times during the last 15 years, we have not had one of the mega-tornadoes that has caused tremendous property damage and deaths (like the 114 killed in Waco during the May 11, 1953 storm).
But as dhweather alluded to earlier, we're living on borrowed time in the DFW area and North Texas, an area that has grown tremendously during the last 20 years. Run the El Reno tornado or either one of the Moore tornadoes through the heart of the Metroplex and I shudder to think what the death toll might be.1
Brent wrote:Dang, another Alabama person.
When did you leave Tuscaloosa?
MSUDawg wrote:Brent wrote:Dang, another Alabama person.
When did you leave Tuscaloosa?
I'll NEVER claim Bama... as I grew up in Mississippi but I did live in Northport for 4-5 years and parent are still there.
Still follow James Spann online. He is one of the people who made me start to follow weather. I know what yall mean and remember several tornadoes hitting including the F4 in Dec 2000.
Now I'm here in DFW.
Ntxw wrote:Texas Snowman wrote:We've certainly had such "tornado weather" here in the past, especially in the month of May, when tornadoes peak here.
Keep in mind that recent years - say from 2000 until now - are not necessarily what most springs are historically like here in Texas. We've been in an on-again, off-again decade long drought that has limited our severe weather events, particularly here in North Texas. Most of the really violent weather has been confined to central Oklahoma during that span and has stayed outside of Texas' borders.
While the number of overall Texas twisters has been up there at times during the last 15 years, we have not had one of the mega-tornadoes that has caused tremendous property damage and deaths (like the 114 killed in Waco during the May 11, 1953 storm).
But as dhweather alluded to earlier, we're living on borrowed time in the DFW area and North Texas, an area that has grown tremendously during the last 20 years. Run the El Reno tornado or either one of the Moore tornadoes through the heart of the Metroplex and I shudder to think what the death toll might be.1
It's a love/hate relationship with the cap. Without the cap we won't bottle up enough energy, and you get junk convection that stabilizes the atmosphere. With the cap sometimes storms don't initialize or weaken. It is days when the cap is broken in the afternoon after all the energy is built up that's when things go violent in Texas very quickly. It's like a boiling pot of water. Keep the lid on it just gains pressures, take off the lid and everything goes whoosh. But turn it off before it is off and simmer.
Texas Snowman wrote:Don't look now, but some big storms are starting to initiate from Abilene to the south towards Interstate 10.
fendie wrote:For those wanting analogs to compare you can check the Sounding Analog Retrieval System (SARS) data which is output onto observed soundings. Of course, a recent radiosonde would be needed to accurately make a strong correlation. You can find soundings on the SPCs website here:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/
More information on how SARS works can be found on this pdf:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/jewell/sars.pdf
You can also go to the SPC mesoscale analysis and double click on any point on the map and it will give you tornado climatology comparisons to the current mesoanalysis:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/
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