Texas Fall 2019

[Cpv17]

the Euro definitely has a 2nd front by next Friday, both Friday and Saturday have highs in the 60s to around 70 and lows into the 40s for DFW

Well, it appears that the RIDGE OF DEATH is on its last legs, after a lengthy reign of terror.

It was only 98 yesterday at Northpark yesterday at 4:30 - October 2nd.

I won't complain about the warm, I like it. I will complain about the drought, it sucks mightily.

Its been even worse east of here many 100s reported in the SE which are unprecedented in October over there

many other places all time October highs

There’s nothing but extremes these days. That’s the new normal

[weatherdude1108]

Now we're talkin'! I like the cooler temps (less evaporation), but especially the "slightly better opportunity for rainfall", even if it is only slight. Every little bit!


000
FXUS64 KEWX 031933
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
233 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
The strong upper level ridge remains centered across the Southeast
U.S., with the western periphery into portions of Texas. There is a
weakness beneath the ridge across the western Gulf and South Texas
that will move west through the short-term. This has led to isolated
showers this afternoon across southern areas of the CWA, with better
coverage south of the CWA closer to the deeper moisture pool.
Farther north, a cold front this afternoon stretched from northwest
Texas into south-central Oklahoma. This front is expected to stall
north of the CWA Friday morning. Moisture pooling ahead of it could
allow for isolated showers to develop early Friday morning across
northern areas of the CWA. Winds backing more easterly, combined with
the aforementioned weakness aloft beneath the ridge, may also allow
for slightly better coverage of isolated showers and storms Friday
afternoon across the central and eastern CWA. Temperatures a degree
or two cooler Friday, but still well above climatology.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
The upper level pattern will gradually break down over the weekend
into early next week, with the ridge across the Southeast U.S.
weakening and a trough carving out across the north-central CONUS.
This will finally send our first Fall cold front through the region.
Ahead of the front, very warm temperatures are forecast both Saturday
and Sunday afternoons. Current model consensus indicates the front
moving through the area late Sunday night, with only low PoPs
forecast along and behind the front Sunday night through Monday
morning.

Cooler post frontal conditions Monday through Tuesday night. There
are rather large discrepancies that have developed between GFS and
ECMWF MOS guidance with respect to low temps Tuesday and Wednesday
mornings, with the ECMWF MOS much cooler. The GFS ensemble members
also so a rather large spread with low temps. Therefore at this time
we have followed closer to the NBM for temperatures Monday through
Wednesday.

A sharper upper level trough looks to develop Thursday into Friday
of next week across the central CONUS. This could potentially send a
stronger cold front into the area late Thursday into Friday, and what
at this time looks to be a slightly better opportunity for rainfall.

[Astromanía]

At this time Texas could receive some strong rain from a EPAC crossover strong system in October or even November so hopefully conditions will improve in that area, with an increasing in water anomalies temperature in pacific this allow stronger systems in EPAC and a colder and wet winter for Texas, Mexico would have problems with those systems tho. Still we need to wait if those anomalies are a trend.

[Cerlin]

Whenever a model reaches below 40 is when I come out of my hibernation

[bubba hotep]

PSA, the upgraded GFS (FV3) has a major cold bias in the longer range with surface temps, esp at night. So take those pretty maps with a grain of salt, at this time.

[Brent]

PSA, the upgraded GFS (FV3) has a major cold bias in the longer range with surface temps, esp at night. So take those pretty maps with a grain of salt, at this time.

that's weird to me because its warmer with the Monday front than the Euro and has been for days

[dhweather]

PSA, the upgraded GFS (FV3) has a major cold bias in the longer range with surface temps, esp at night. So take those pretty maps with a grain of salt, at this time.

Didn't they fix that back in the spring?

[dhweather]

Very good agreement with the GFS and ECMWF

In the metroplex:

Monday morning - 60-65

Friday morning - 45-50

That's going to feel bitter to all of us acclimated to the RIDGE OF DEATH

[Portastorm]

PSA, the upgraded GFS (FV3) has a major cold bias in the longer range with surface temps, esp at night. So take those pretty maps with a grain of salt, at this time.

The 12z Euro does show lows in the mid-upper 40s next weekend for the Metroplex ... so there's at least that.

[dhweather]

From the FWD AFD

Monday, the cold front will have advanced well into South Texas
with a much drier airmass remaining over North and Central Texas.
Most of the area can expect mostly clear skies with light
northeast winds and afternoon highs in the mid 70s or low 80s
Monday. This will continue into Tuesday with morning lows in the
50s across the entire forecast area. As is the case with Fall
fronts...they usually don`t last long, and this one is no
different. The center of the surface high is expected to advance
east of the area by Wednesday, therefore the tranquil northeast
wind will be replaced by southeast return flow ushering in warmer
and more humid air Wednesday. The ECMWF and NAEFS ensemble
guidance (as well as the deterministic guidance) has recently come
into agreement of another trough digging into the NW CONUS mid to
late next week, which should promote leeside cyclogenesis and
possibly another strong cold front moving through the area late
next week. The details regarding this next system will come into
focus as it traverses through Alaska and Northwestern Canada over
the next few days.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Apologies to my neighbors. I put wheels on our sled and we will bundle up and ride the sled through the neighborhood blowing and air horn signaling the beginning of cold weather season!

Our place in Montana got 17 inches of snow from the last storm!

[BrokenGlass]

TX-OU weekend looking skrong


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Brent]

PSA, the upgraded GFS (FV3) has a major cold bias in the longer range with surface temps, esp at night. So take those pretty maps with a grain of salt, at this time.

The 12z Euro does show lows in the mid-upper 40s next weekend for the Metroplex ... so there's at least that.

yeah at least through the 2nd front the Euro is colder(Monday-Tuesday) or similar to the GFS(Friday-Saturday)

[bubba hotep]

PSA, the upgraded GFS (FV3) has a major cold bias in the longer range with surface temps, esp at night. So take those pretty maps with a grain of salt, at this time.

Didn't they fix that back in the spring?

They tried to address the issue and the analysis showed improvement but there is still a cold bias. The biggest issue will probably be later in the winter when we have borderline winter wx events. I suspect we will see our fair share of phantom winter storms on the long range GFS. We've already seen a bunch of bogus cold fronts from the GFS.

[bubba hotep]

First signs of changes in the Euro Weeklies, still on the warm side but the pattern looks much wetter across Texas than the past couple of weeks of runs.

[South Texas Storms]

First signs of changes in the Euro Weeklies, still on the warm side but the pattern looks much wetter across Texas than the past couple of weeks of runs.

I was just about to post that! Yep, best run of the Euro Weeklies I've seen for us in a long time.

[bubba hotep]

First signs of changes in the Euro Weeklies, still on the warm side but the pattern looks much wetter across Texas than the past couple of weeks of runs.

I was just about to post that! Yep, best run of the Euro Weeklies I've seen for us in a long time.

Ntxw has been pretty steadfast in believing that a shift to a wetter pattern was coming but I've been pretty nervous about it. I've been waiting for the Weeklies to shift wetter, now we just need a shift to a colder pattern.

[Cerlin]

Cell in Denton county outta nowhere? I’ll take it

[South Texas Storms]

First signs of changes in the Euro Weeklies, still on the warm side but the pattern looks much wetter across Texas than the past couple of weeks of runs.

I was just about to post that! Yep, best run of the Euro Weeklies I've seen for us in a long time.

Ntxw has been pretty steadfast in believing that a shift to a wetter pattern was coming but I've been pretty nervous about it. I've been waiting for the Weeklies to shift wetter, now we just need a shift to a colder pattern.

Same here. The SOI has been negative for quite a while which typically leads to wetter conditions here. Nice to see the Weeklies on board with it now too.

[bubba hotep]

Cell in Denton county outta nowhere? I’ll take it

Looks like it fired off at the intersection of two outflow boundaries, cool stuff!