Texas Summer 2022

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Here’s my one and only post this time of year…


FVCK SUMMER!


See y’all for Fall and Winter

[TropicalTundra]

Here’s my one and only post this time of year…


FVCK SUMMER!


See y’all for Fall and Winter

Can relate. I’ve been listening to Christmas songs since April. Hopefully this fall/winter can fix the drought we’ve been having at the least

[weatherdude1108]

Very humbling last wording from EWX discussion this morning.

Unfortunately, it`s beginning to look
increasingly likely that Summer 2022 may go down as the hottest on record, and additional drought intensification is likely to occur over the coming weeks.



https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

[Ntxw]

Upper 500mb ridge looks like it's going to flex on the ENS after this early week of shifting a bit west. All of the Great Plains, Texas included, will be at play.

So far we've seen it meander and pulse, its apex will probably be sometime end of this month and early August with climatological peak.

[rwfromkansas]

Makes me sick when west Texas is cooler. It’s currently in the 80s and low 90s. WTH.

[cstrunk]

I have a 30% chance of rain today. Can I get lucky? SPC has a marginal risk through the area.

[Brent]

It is very sad times when a temperature of 94 and a heat index of 102 is considered a cold front but here we are

[Ntxw]

16th 100F or greater day at DFW. 22 through this coming Friday going by the NWS forecast. Though a couple of days at 100 could be 99 or 101. That will take us to mid month. If the rest of the days were 100F or greater we would be at 38 by the end of the month. Presumably you could say a few days may not get that so anywhere between ~30-38.

August averages the most 100F days around 10 and since we have been well above normal I would say 45-55F days is about a reasonable guess pace, which is higher than the initial summer guess for DFW I made in the mid 30s. We're definitely on pace for a top 5 most annual 100F days here in the metroplex. 56 days is #3, 69 and 71 are #2 and #1. The latter would require most of August seeing 100s and some days in September at the current pace to achieve.

[captainbarbossa19]

16th 100F or greater day at DFW. 22 through this coming Friday going by the NWS forecast. Though a couple of days at 100 could be 99 or 101. That will take us to mid month. If the rest of the days were 100F or greater we would be at 38 by the end of the month. Presumably you could say a few days may not get that so anywhere between ~30-38.

August averages the most 100F days around 10 and since we have been well above normal I would say 45-55F days is about a reasonable guess pace, which is higher than the initial summer guess for DFW I made in the mid 30s. We're definitely on pace for a top 5 most annual 100F days here in the metroplex. 56 days is #3, 69 and 71 are #2 and #1. The latter would require most of August seeing 100s and some days in September at the current pace to achieve.

Let's just say that next year is almost guaranteed to be cooler. It will still be hot, but it is highly unlikely to have a repeat of this year or something like 1980 or 2011 from a statistical standpoint. Also, it will probably be wetter.

[Ntxw]

16th 100F or greater day at DFW. 22 through this coming Friday going by the NWS forecast. Though a couple of days at 100 could be 99 or 101. That will take us to mid month. If the rest of the days were 100F or greater we would be at 38 by the end of the month. Presumably you could say a few days may not get that so anywhere between ~30-38.

August averages the most 100F days around 10 and since we have been well above normal I would say 45-55F days is about a reasonable guess pace, which is higher than the initial summer guess for DFW I made in the mid 30s. We're definitely on pace for a top 5 most annual 100F days here in the metroplex. 56 days is #3, 69 and 71 are #2 and #1. The latter would require most of August seeing 100s and some days in September at the current pace to achieve.

Let's just say that next year is almost guaranteed to be cooler. It will still be hot, but it is highly unlikely to have a repeat of this year or something like 1980 or 2011 from a statistical standpoint. Also, it will probably be wetter.

It's probably next year will likely be better. But how much better? It's not often a flip is just switched. Let's just use 2011 for the sake as an example, while the ground drought and atmospheric drought were the most severe in 2011, 2012-2014 hydrological drought kicked, those were some of the harshest water table years than even 2011 when the lakes were at their decadal lows. There's usually a lag effect, so if in the most optimistic view lets say an El Nino kicks in this Fall (likely won't) it won't be until Spring or Summer of next year to see a real atmospheric response/improvement. If one kicks up traditionally through Spring then you'd need a season or two to catch up.

Can it flip instant? Sure, but you'd see the signs of it pretty quickly. If I were making a sound guess, I'd say the atmospheric drought would likely improve the second half of next year given a Nina is quite likely the end of this year and the beginning of next and go out by Spring. All predicating a wholesale change in the Pacific occurs.

[captainbarbossa19]

16th 100F or greater day at DFW. 22 through this coming Friday going by the NWS forecast. Though a couple of days at 100 could be 99 or 101. That will take us to mid month. If the rest of the days were 100F or greater we would be at 38 by the end of the month. Presumably you could say a few days may not get that so anywhere between ~30-38.

August averages the most 100F days around 10 and since we have been well above normal I would say 45-55F days is about a reasonable guess pace, which is higher than the initial summer guess for DFW I made in the mid 30s. We're definitely on pace for a top 5 most annual 100F days here in the metroplex. 56 days is #3, 69 and 71 are #2 and #1. The latter would require most of August seeing 100s and some days in September at the current pace to achieve.

Let's just say that next year is almost guaranteed to be cooler. It will still be hot, but it is highly unlikely to have a repeat of this year or something like 1980 or 2011 from a statistical standpoint. Also, it will probably be wetter.

It's probably next year will likely be better. But how much better? It's not often a flip is just switched. Let's just use 2011 for the sake as an example, while the ground drought and atmospheric drought were the most severe in 2011, 2012-2014 hydrological drought kicked, those were some of the harshest water table years than even 2011 when the lakes were at their decadal lows. There's usually a lag effect, so if in the most optimistic view lets say an El Nino kicks in this Fall (likely won't) it won't be until Spring or Summer of next year to see a real atmospheric response/improvement. If one kicks up traditionally through Spring then you'd need a season or two to catch up.

Can it flip instant? Sure, but you'd see the signs of it pretty quickly. If I were making a sound guess, I'd say the atmospheric drought would likely improve the second half of next year given a Nina is quite likely the end of this year and the beginning of next and go out by Spring. All predicating a wholesale change in the Pacific occurs.

Sure it's going to take a while to undo the current pattern, but I didn't say next year would be wet and cool. I just said wetter and cooler which 2012 was both for much of the state compared to 2011. It wasn't optimal for undoing all the lingering effects of the dry pattern, but it was the beginning of heading towards a better pattern.

[Ntxw]

Sure it's going to take a while to undo the current pattern, but I didn't say next year would be wet and cool. I just said wetter and cooler which 2012 was both for much of the state compared to 2011. It wasn't optimal for undoing all the lingering effects of the dry pattern, but it was the beginning of heading towards a better pattern.

That's a fair point. However inland outside of the coast 2012 annually was hotter for both DFW and Austin and many other regions than 2011. It was summer 2011 that was outrageous.

Plus 2012 is a terrible ENSO year. I had the call wrong completely in the ENSO thread that season thinking an El Nino was going to form in the hopes one would, that ended up as a head-fake. A Florida poster kept pointing out the PDO was going to interfere and in the end it did after thinking it wouldn't play that big of a role. That taught me a good lesson in ENSO to incorporate all factors.

[cheezyWXguy]

So, storm popped up directly over me. Lightning and heavy rain and I was excited for the relief it would bring. Wow, was I wrong. Still about 100, and super humid. I’ve felt 118 degree heat before and this is worse.

[DallasAg]

Makes me sick when west Texas is cooler. It’s currently in the 80s and low 90s. WTH.

It's so strange. Today I drove from Crested Butte, CO, to Dallas. It was a balmy 42 degrees when we rolled out of CB. Typically the stretch from Childress through Vernon and Wichita Falls is the hottest part of the drive, but today the hottest reading I saw on the car was at Preston & Royal (110). It didn't even hit 100 until we were just outside of Wichita Falls and that was at normal peak heating (4:00ish). Very odd.

It was interesting to see how much green there still was on parts of 287 between Wichita Falls and Decatur. As we got closer and closer to Dallas the brown took over pretty quickly. Everything is dormant which hasn't been getting irrigated. If it were Aug 9th I'd think that's about right. But July 9th...ugh. The feedback loop is going to be ugly. Even if the high isn't parked right over us it seems like we'll just be hitting 100s routinely because everything is fried. Glad I didn't invest in any new landscaping this year. I'm assuming water restrictions are forthcoming.

[funster]

Some of the DFW forecasts now showing 108 for Tuesday and the 90s are gone from the 10 day. WFAA has 107 Monday and 108 Tuesday https://www.wfaa.com/weather

[Cpv17]

Well uhhh, I did not expect to see that from the 0z Euro.

[cheezyWXguy]

Well uhhh, I did not expect to see that from the 0z Euro.

I much prefer that to the GFS, which is consistently putting out all time record highs for dfw during the last 10 days of the month…

[Iceresistance]

96°F expected today, Friday was kinda wild with a microburst over Oklahoma City from big storms that developed along a cold front, but died off before it reached my house. Even though parts of Oklahoma City got up to 3.5 inches of rain.

[Ntxw]

Curious to see if the Euro keeps it 12z run. It is punching the system into the ridge though so some level of skepticism. Even the latest GFS solution isn't 'too bad' at least for the coast and southern tier of the state.

In other news the SOI still can't hold negatives, it did one day then reverted positive, though not terribly positive but still more consistently +.

[South Texas Storms]

Curious to see if the Euro keeps it 12z run. It is punching the system into the ridge though so some level of skepticism. Even the latest GFS solution isn't 'too bad' at least for the coast and southern tier of the state.

In other news the SOI still can't hold negatives, it did one day then reverted positive, though not terribly positive but still more consistently +.

As much as I want the 0z Euro to verify with that tropical system, I find it highly unlikely. Think the ridge will hold firm and whatever becomes of that will remain east of the state. The long-range GFS is spitting out some insane heat over north TX later this month. Yikes if that happens, which actually isn't too unlikely sadly...