Plains Tornado Outbreak 4/14-15

[Dave]

Breaking for a little while...need to rest these eyes for a few.

[Ntxw]

Short range models still indicate main show yet to come, only tip of the iceberg one might say. Areas already effected will likely have another round of intense supercells near sunset.

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0533
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KS INTO NW OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 165...

VALID 142154Z - 142300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 165 CONTINUES.

A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED PRIOR TO SCHEDULED 23Z EXPIRATION.

THE DRY LINE REMAINS ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM GAGE...DODGE CITY
INTO THE MCCOOK AREA...AND LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE
EASTWARD ACCELERATION PRIOR TO THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME...WHEN THE EXIT
REGION OF THE MAIN UPPER JET STREAK /AROUND 100 KT AT 500 MB/
FINALLY BEGINS TO NOSE NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR INTENSE NEW DISCRETE STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODERATELY LARGE
CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR. 50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO AIDE THE PROPAGATION OF SUPERCELLS AWAY FROM THE
INITIATING ZONE...ACROSS CENTRAL...AND PERHAPS PARTS OF
EASTERN...KANSAS...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WHERE CLOCKWISE
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL CONTINUE TO ENLARGE AND BECOME
INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 04/14/2012

...PLEASE SEE http://WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...

[CrazyC83]

Look for a replacement PDS Tornado Watch for that original one by 6.

[Bunkertor]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0532
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0447 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...NERN KS...SRN IA...NWRN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 166...168...

VALID 142147Z - 142245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 166...168...CONTINUES.

THREAT OF TORNADOES...DMGG WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL CONTINUES...AND
WILL SPREAD INTO NRN MO THIS EVENING. WW 168 WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED
WITH A NEW TORNADO WW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. WW 166 CONTINUES.

21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SUPPORTED BY RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN
MCV FEATURE DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN NEB. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT IS
PREDOMINANTLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAIL ACROSS ERN NEB ATTM...THE
STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION. OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS...AN INCREASING THREAT OF TORNADOES...DMGG
WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS ALONG THE NWD PROGRESSING WARM FRONT /CURRENTLY ANALYZED
NEAR THE NEB/KS AND IA/MO BORDER/...AND A MORE ORGANIZED MCS AHEAD
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV. A REPLACEMENT WW WILL THEREFORE NEED TO
BE COORDINATED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

..HURLBUT.. 04/14/2012

[Dave]

Tornado watch coming out for Iowa...pick it up please.

[CrazyC83]

WWUS53 KICT 142150
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
450 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

KSC009-159-142215-
/O.CON.KICT.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-120414T2215Z/
RICE KS-BARTON KS-
450 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN BARTON AND
WESTERN RICE COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 445 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF
ELLINWOOD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE HOMES
COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR SNAPPED.
VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RAYMOND...ALDEN...STERLING...CHASE...CLAFLIN...LYONS...BUSHTON...
SILICA AND FREDERICK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3841 9876 3858 9848 3852 9848 3852 9825
3818 9808 3818 9814 3816 9819 3816 9821
3817 9822 3817 9847 3825 9848 3826 9882
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 222DEG 34KT 3832 9853

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

[CrazyC83]

Probs are 40/30.

SEL9

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 169
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
500 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN IOWA
FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM 500 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF SHENANDOAH
IOWA TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF OTTUMWA IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 165...WW 166...WW
167...WW 168...

DISCUSSION...EVOLVING BOW ECHO/HP SUPERCELL OVER SERN NEB IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENEWD ALONG WARM FRONT...POTENTIALLY ENHANCING
DOWNSTREAM STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WARM FRONT. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SSWLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TO 50+ KT ACROSS
REGION TONIGHT...ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG WARM FRONT...AND
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. AS SUCH...A RISK FOR TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORM STRUCTURES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...MEAD

[cycloneye]

The biggest fear here is going to be the timing,as it will be dark when the outbreak will be on full swing.

[Fyzn94]

The biggest fear here is going to be the timing,as it will be dark when the outbreak will be on full swing.

no kidding

[CrazyC83]

WFUS53 KLBF 142219
TORLBF
NEC111-142245-
/O.NEW.KLBF.TO.W.0009.120414T2219Z-120414T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
519 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 518 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR NORTH
PLATTE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL LINCOLN
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS HIGHWAY 83 MILE MARKER
90 AND HIGHWAY 83 MILE MARKER 100.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4092 10100 4138 10075 4138 10074 4139 10073
4137 10042 4087 10084
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 210DEG 33KT 4116 10076

$$

POWER

[badger70]

KansasTwisters.com is streaming video of formation of 2 funnels.

Location: Cell east of Pratt, KS, moving east.

Update 5:26 pm CDT: Now just two areas of rotation with protrusions.

[CrazyC83]

WWUS53 KOAX 142221
SVSOAX
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
521 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

NEC127-131-142245-
/O.CON.KOAX.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120414T2245Z/
OTOE NE-NEMAHA NE-
521 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN OTOE AND EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL NEMAHA
COUNTIES...

AT 513 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADIC STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TALMAGE...OR 33 MILES WEST OF
TARKIO...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TALMAGE AND JULIAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4050 9601 4054 9603 4062 9579 4056 9576
4053 9577 4053 9575 4050 9574
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 257DEG 40KT 4052 9601

$$

BOUSTEAD/MAYES

[CrazyC83]

New Tornado Watch - almost certainly PDS - coming out to replace 165.

[Bunkertor]

[CrazyC83]

Probs are 80/60.

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 170
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
525 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

KANSAS
FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 525 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
CONCORDIA KANSAS TO 65 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ENID OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 165...WW 166...WW
167...WW 169...

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS WITH A HISTORY OF TORNADOES FROM NW HUT TO S
OF GAG ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN
CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL INTO TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ALONG STATIONARY OR
SLOWLY RETREATING DRYLINE OVER WRN KS INTO THE ERN TX PNHDL WHERE
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.


...MEAD

[CrazyC83]

Debris ball near Lyons, KS.

[apocalypt-flyer]

Debris ball near Lyons, KS.

Confirmed with a large, violent wedge tornado.

[RL3AO]

[RL3AO]

Its about to outrun its tornado warning. ICT better get on that fast.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.
SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.
IMPACT...MAJOR HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE LIKELY AND COMPLETE
DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED. MAJOR POWER
OUTAGES IN PATH OF TORNADO HIGHLY LIKELY. SOME ROADS
POSSIBLY BLOCKED BY TORNADO DEBRIS. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF
VEHICLES LIKELY.