Texas Spring 2013

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow: I am surprised EWX were that bullish on putting up flood watches. Most of the major guidance do not suggest much rainfall from MCS activity, more scattered in nature and agrees on about a quarter to maybe half an inch for central and south Texas. The better consolidation of a possible MCS will be NW to NC Texas, where the Euro and GFS paints up to an inch onwards to Oklahoma. This regarding the next 24-36 hours.

Me too! I saw the HPC forecast and they're still saying just 0.25" to 0.5" in this area. EWX is still sticking with the flood watch. Maybe they are paranoid about another surprise "rain bomb" like this past Saturday in San Antonio(?).

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
955 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BURNET TO BANDERA TO DERBY FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING...

.THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME OF OUR HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
SHOWING HEAVY CONVECTION EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
DISTURBANCES ALOFT SWEEP NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY. A PLUME OF
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ABOVE WHAT IS CONSIDERED NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR COUPLED WITH A LOW LEVEL JET SWEEPING DEEP GULF M0ISTURE
INLAND WILL CREATE THE CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HEAVY RAINS AND RESULTANT FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION...THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INCLUDING THE I-35
CORRIDOR. WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS...ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY RAINS OVER THE WATCH AREA COULD RESULT IN
RAPID RUNOFF AND RESULTANT FLASH FLOODING.

TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-149-163-177-187-209-255-
259-285-287-325-453-491-493-300415-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-130530T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-
DEWITT-FAYETTE-FRIO-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-KENDALL-LAVACA-
LEE-MEDINA-TRAVIS-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLEASANTON...BANDERA...BASTROP...
SAN ANTONIO...BLANCO...BURNET...LOCKHART...NEW BRAUNFELS...
CUERO...LA GRANGE...PEARSALL...GONZALES...SEGUIN...SAN MARCOS...
KARNES CITY...BOERNE...HALLETTSVILLE...GIDDINGS...HONDO...
AUSTIN...GEORGETOWN...FLORESVILLE
955 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ATASCOSA...
BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DEWITT...FAYETTE...FRIO...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...LAVACA...LEE...MEDINA...TRAVIS...
WILLIAMSON AND WILSON.

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* HEAVY RAINS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL AVERAGE NEAR 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 5
INCHES POSSIBLE.

* DUE TO SATURATED SOILS...ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT DEVELOP WILL
QUICKLY PRODUCE RUNOFF AND A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. RIVERS MAY BE
PRONE TO RAPID RISES.

[Ntxw]

Latest short range guidance shows a big cluster of thunderstorms forming this afternoon over north Texas moving n/ne and quickly becoming an MCS. Any early development will have some tornado threat to it with individual storms. Localized flooding could become an issue.

[SouthernMet]

NWS FTW - "40% chance of Severe Storms Fort Worth - Gainesville Line after 3pm"

[Portastorm]

Per its mid-morning AFD, EWX is banking on some of their higher resolution short-range models which show ample rainfall over their forecast warning area. We shall see.

[SouthernMet]

THERE IS ALSO SOME SUGGESTION BY LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A SECOND
BAND OF TSTMS DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON E OF THE DRYLINE FROM CNTRL KS
SWD INTO N-CNTRL TX. UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO REMAINS
HIGH...BUT SHOULD IT UNFOLD...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A RISK FOR A FEW
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS.

[Ntxw]

Regarding severe weather parameters, I think NTX is not in the greatest area of concern for tornadoes per Mesoanalysis from SPC. Probably more isolated in nature as the best region will be near the dry line in NW Texas between Childress and Wichita Falls. Our greatest risk IMO is training of storms for heavy rainfall and wind from potentially several rounds of thunderstorms.

[SouthernMet]

Regarding severe weather parameters, I think NTX is not in the greatest area of concern for tornadoes per Mesoanalysis from SPC. Probably more isolated in nature as the best region will be near the dry line in NW Texas between Childress and Wichita Falls. Our greatest risk IMO is training of storms for heavy rainfall and wind from potentially several rounds of thunderstorms.

I agree to an extent, the majority of the Tornadoes and Supercells are going to be the individual cells that form close to the Dry Line. (Also areas with sun/ day time heating)

[gboudx]

With the recent rains that have put good moisture in the soils around the Metroplex, I'm in favor of a good hard rain that dumps 2"+ over the Lake Lavon watersheds. It rose nearly 0.5' from the recent rains, but with good runoff, maybe it can rise more.

For those serviced by the NTMWD, Stage 3 restrictions start Saturday.

[Ptarmigan]

Lots of good rain for the dry areas of south-central TX down to the Valley.

More power for them.

[Portastorm]

While many of us wonder what would compel a teenager to do such a thing, we all should remember our own teenage time and the dumb things we did. And some of them may have been life threatening. We don't know a lot of details regarding this episode and if this teen was mentally disabled or other issues going on. So, calling the teen "a tool" is really crass and rude IMO.

Search Continues for Teen Missing in...
ABC News - ‎34 minutes ago‎

The search intensified Sunday for a teenage boy believed to have been swept away by floodwaters as he tried to swim across a swollen creek near San Antonio, authorities said.

OK, seriously, WHY would anyone do that? Driving into it is one thing, but trying to SWIM it?

This is what we call a Darwin Award winner, what a tool for trying to swim a swollen river

[SouthernMet]

A Tornado Watch now up for a large portion of Texas

[Ntxw]

Cluster of storms from the south have made it to DFW and severe thunderstorm warnings for wind, rain, and maybe some hail. Pouring outside my window atm.



Even though severe thunderstorm watch isn't officially covering our area any one of these tropical-like showers can produce them. At this time any tornado threat seems low for the immediate metroplex.

[weatherdude1108]

What a shock!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
745 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

.UPDATE...
CANCELING BOTH TORNADO AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS THE SUN GOES DOWN SO DO OUR RAIN CHANCES. WHAT CONVECTION THERE IS
OVER OUR CWA IS DIMINISHING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. NEW
SOUNDING FROM DRT SHOWS WEAK CAP AND SINCE IT HELD DURING PEAK
HEATING DO NOT SEE ANYTHING THAT WILL BREAK IT THIS EVENING AS THE
DRYLINE RETREATS TO THE WEST. ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY
THIS EVENING...SO HAVE CANCELLED BOTH THE TORNADO AND FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES. WILL LIKELY LOWER POPS FOR THE EVENING SHORTLY.

&&

[Portastorm]

What a shock!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
745 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

.UPDATE...
CANCELING BOTH TORNADO AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS THE SUN GOES DOWN SO DO OUR RAIN CHANCES. WHAT CONVECTION THERE IS
OVER OUR CWA IS DIMINISHING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. NEW
SOUNDING FROM DRT SHOWS WEAK CAP AND SINCE IT HELD DURING PEAK
HEATING DO NOT SEE ANYTHING THAT WILL BREAK IT THIS EVENING AS THE
DRYLINE RETREATS TO THE WEST. ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY
THIS EVENING...SO HAVE CANCELLED BOTH THE TORNADO AND FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES. WILL LIKELY LOWER POPS FOR THE EVENING SHORTLY.

&&

Despite ridiculous amounts of moisture in the atmosphere, we never could get a decent trigger to overcome the cap. You may have noticed yesterday that when the sun came out for a few hours in the afternoon, a number of popcorn-type showers started to form in the southerly flow. But without an upper level energy or an active dryline out west of us, we couldn't get started really. Oh well.

[weatherdude1108]

What a shock!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
745 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

.UPDATE...
CANCELING BOTH TORNADO AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS THE SUN GOES DOWN SO DO OUR RAIN CHANCES. WHAT CONVECTION THERE IS
OVER OUR CWA IS DIMINISHING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. NEW
SOUNDING FROM DRT SHOWS WEAK CAP AND SINCE IT HELD DURING PEAK
HEATING DO NOT SEE ANYTHING THAT WILL BREAK IT THIS EVENING AS THE
DRYLINE RETREATS TO THE WEST. ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY
THIS EVENING...SO HAVE CANCELLED BOTH THE TORNADO AND FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES. WILL LIKELY LOWER POPS FOR THE EVENING SHORTLY.

&&

Despite ridiculous amounts of moisture in the atmosphere, we never could get a decent trigger to overcome the cap. You may have noticed yesterday that when the sun came out for a few hours in the afternoon, a number of popcorn-type showers started to form in the southerly flow. But without an upper level energy or an active dryline out west of us, we couldn't get started really. Oh well.

Yes, the moisture was insane! As a matter of fact, I did run into one of those popcorn showers around 4:00 yesterday. Showered just enough to steam it up a bit -- kind of like a "dry day" in Houston.

Hopefully we will get a shot this weekend, although not sure of the chances, especially as we transition to the traditional "morning low clouds to partly cloudy and hot" doggie days.

One caveat is always the tropics. Bob Rose mentioned Hurricane Barbara (second storm officially before the official start of the hurricane season) crossing over southeastern Mexico potentially into the Gulf, moving north or north/northeast. It would still be called Barbara if it maintains strength into the Gulf. Conditions not conducive in the Yucatan at the moment for development, but always hoping.

"It’s interesting to note that Barbara is currently moving to the north -northeast at about 9 mph. A turn more to the north is expected overnight. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center indicate that on this forecast track, the system will emerge of the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico late Thursday as a remnant low pressure system. I will point out that upper-level winds over the southern Gulf of Mexico are not favorable for tropical storm regeneration. However, we will need to monitor this over the next couple of days. As of now, a track north towards the Texas coast doesn’t seem very likely. By the way, should the circulation of Barbara remain intact all the way into the Gulf of Mexico, the cyclone would retain the name Barbara

Bob"

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

[Ntxw]

Late season cold front later this weekend. Maybe a thin line of showers as it moves through, the northern half of the state will get some refreshing temperatures (slightly below average 70s and low 80s for highs 60s for lows). Central and southern Texas likely won't feel too much effect of it as it may wash out before reaching there. At least it will keep small chances of rain along the boundary near where it stalls. Not a lot though unfortunately.

Still do not see any big heatwave through the first week of June. Troughiness through the midsection and great Lakes have not allowed high pressure from the desert SW to settle in Texas or development of a retrograding SE ridge. Dominate flow the past 30 days has been south/southeasterly which is a moist/cooler one from the gulf than the hell from Mexico.

[gpsnowman]

May is over. I can't remember the last year a May has blessed us with such cold/cool weather with decent rain in a long time. Ntwx mentioned 90 degree days in DFW a few posts ago. I wonder what the all time low 90 degree days in the month of May are? The "meat" of summer is here for DFW. Spring has been a blessing so far and I hope summer will be just as kind. The Texas Winter thread has started but man, lets get through summer with a cool start and finish. With plenty of moisture and no death ridge!!!!! I can't handle another 2011. I will move to Seattle if it happens.

[Ntxw]

FW just put them out for May. May it be a ray of light for us through the long, daunting trip in the times when wxman57's powers are at it's greatest.


PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
500 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...DALLAS/FORT WORTH CLIMATE NARRATIVE FOR MAY 2013...

FOR DFW AIRPORT...MAY WAS THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE MONTH WITH A MEAN
TEMPERATURE BELOW NORMAL. THIS HAS NOT OCCURRED SINCE JUNE-AUGUST
2004...A SUMMER THAT FEATURED ONLY ONE 100-DEGREE DAY.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=PNSDFW <- good stuff

[gpsnowman]

For all you DFW folk here. Have you noticed the lack of bugs so far this season? Hardly any here at my house in south Grand Prairie. Usually my family is bombarded with insects by now. Not so much this year. The cold start to spring has surely helped. Man, I can not wait for winter.

[gpsnowman]

:uarrow: FW just put them out for May. May it be a ray of light for us through the long, daunting trip in the times when wxman57's powers are at it's greatest.
He can have his powers in Houston. Wow, one 100 degree day in 2004! I don't remember that. I do remember the summer of 1996 produced very few 100 degree days. Dreaming of 2004 and 1996.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
500 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...DALLAS/FORT WORTH CLIMATE NARRATIVE FOR MAY 2013...

FOR DFW AIRPORT...MAY WAS THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE MONTH WITH A MEAN
TEMPERATURE BELOW NORMAL. THIS HAS NOT OCCURRED SINCE JUNE-AUGUST
2004...A SUMMER THAT FEATURED ONLY ONE 100-DEGREE DAY.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=PNSDFW <- good stuff