Texas Spring-2014

[TheProfessor]

I'm going to mark yesterday as a bust in my book. But Saturday and Sunday sure do look interesting for Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, possibly the first major tornado outbreak of the season. Unfortunately as of right now it doesn't look like I'll get to take the tour of O.U this Saturday.

[Ntxw]

I'm going to mark yesterday as a bust in my book. But Saturday and Sunday sure do look interesting for Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, possibly the first major tornado outbreak of the season. Unfortunately as of right now it doesn't look like I'll get to take the tour of O.U this Saturday.

I have some doubts for this weekend. Euro is plunging some really cold air (likely a snowstorm for central plains and maybe parts of Oklahoma) as soon as that first system kicks out. Models have over done dewpoints with every 'outbreak' this year

[weatherdude1108]

Took this pic of mammatus outside my front door yesterday around 5:30. It was from a storm way off to our west near Blanco. We got sprinkles out of the whole deal. Thankful there was no big hail (any hail) in my area. Some parts of Hill Country got 2-inch hen egg size hail.

[TheProfessor]

I'm going to mark yesterday as a bust in my book. But Saturday and Sunday sure do look interesting for Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, possibly the first major tornado outbreak of the season. Unfortunately as of right now it doesn't look like I'll get to take the tour of O.U this Saturday.

I have some doubts for this weekend. Euro is plunging some really cold air (likely a snowstorm for central plains and maybe parts of Oklahoma) as soon as that first system kicks out. Models have over done dewpoints with every 'outbreak' this year

They mentioned that in the write up on storm prediction center, that at first the models had the cold front undercutting the storms, but they said that the models have started to move away from that.

[Ntxw]

This is true for the first system, but surface low will be heading North from Colorado. Warm front to the north air will be unstable but without upper energy cap will be tough to break.

Second system not likely, heights too low and cold air diving in

Its still a ways out though, someone will get some kind of an outbreak. Question is if we can fire it deep into TX. If the cap breaks, definitely some nasty parameters for tornado and hailers.

[dhweather]

I watched the boundary from the Red River move south yesterday afternoon. Hopkins and Hunt counties were getting some good rain. The line was building west as it moved south. It was a broken line on the far western end. So one went just east of me, one went just west of me. After the boundary moved south of me. the line filled in solid. I just don't understand why it happens so much. My only guess is there is some feature, perhaps Lake Ray Hubbard, that influences convective development in Heath.

[South Texas Storms]

Accuweather's summer forecast shows developing heat and drought across a large part of Texas. Larry Cosgrove agrees with them. I really hope they are wrong.

[wxman57]

I notice that the 00Z Euro was predicting a major snowstorm for the eastern third of Kansas into northern Missouri the 28th-29th. Over a foot of snow over quite a large area. Heck of a way to run a spring.

[wxman57]

Accuweather's summer forecast shows developing heat and drought across a large part of Texas. Larry Cosgrove agrees with them. I really hope they are wrong.

Hot and dry is an easy forecast for a Texas summer. Though with El Nino developing I'd expect more rainfall.

[Lagreeneyes03]

:uarrow: This is true for the first system, but surface low will be heading North from Colorado. Warm front to the north air will be unstable but without upper energy cap will be tough to break.

Second system not likely, heights too low and cold air diving in

Its still a ways out though, someone will get some kind of an outbreak. Question is if we can fire it deep into TX. If the cap breaks, definitely some nasty parameters for tornado and hailers.

Cold air????!!! for Texas? How cold?? I thought we were done with that.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ryan Maues tweet looks like January from the 500MB chart. Masssive negative anamoly over Indiana. Like the PV is coming down to the plains again. (I know there is no longer a PV).

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: This is true for the first system, but surface low will be heading North from Colorado. Warm front to the north air will be unstable but without upper energy cap will be tough to break.

Second system not likely, heights too low and cold air diving in

Its still a ways out though, someone will get some kind of an outbreak. Question is if we can fire it deep into TX. If the cap breaks, definitely some nasty parameters for tornado and hailers.

Cold air????!!! for Texas? How cold?? I thought we were done with that.

I thought we were too but apparently not. Models had built a warm air mass but its fleeting apparently replaced by large upper trof dislodging whatever cold air is left in Canada. Too far out for specific temps but refer to wxman57's post on central plains. If the case it would get abnormally chilly here for mid to late spring.

Fairly deep cool air mass vs shallow for the time of year.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS indicating upper 50s for Houston next Tuesday and mid 50s next Wednesday morning after highs near 90 Mon/Tue.

[Tireman4]

Cold air????!!! for Texas? How cold?? I thought we were done with that.[/quote]

I thought we were too but apparently not. Models had built a warm air mass but its fleeting apparently replaced by large upper trof dislodging whatever cold air is left in Canada. Too far out for specific temps but refer to wxman57's post on central plains. If the case it would get abnormally chilly here for mid to late spring.

Fairly deep cool air mass vs shallow for the time of year.[/quote]

Woo Hoo. Great running weather.

[Texas Snowman]

Hot and dry is an easy forecast for a Texas summer. Though with El Nino developing I'd expect more rainfall.

Thank you Wxman57! I'm a bit cranky these days as I recover from my surgery, so I have backed off several times from throwing out such a similar thought.

I moved here as a kid in the fall of 1979. We survived the hot as hades summer of 1980. Since then, I have come to one simple conclusion about summertime in Texas: It's going to be hot and it isn't going to rain much. Some years more so, some years less so, but almost always, some sort of a variation of that same theme.

This drought will eventually run its course like all of the others have done before. Maybe it will start to end this summer, as Ntxw continues to suggest. But if it doesn't, hot and little rain in the summer months is almost never out of the ordinary here in Texas. It's just the nature of the beast in living here.

[Texas Snowman]

Meanwhile, storm chaser Reed Timmer continues to be bullish on this weekend's severe weather threat in the southern Great Plains. Here's his Facebook post from a short while ago:

"Morning models haven't backed off any with this weekend's storm system, which is not good news for residents of Oklahoma as well as parts of Texas and Kansas. Saturday looks like it could get serious as a sharp dryline sets up with extreme instability and shear that would easily support very strong tornadoes should this verify. Sunday is looking significant as well.. Stay tuned and stay safe!"

[dhweather]

Maybe so?


ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 220845
SPC AC 220845

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY SEVERE EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL U.S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...

22/00Z ECMWF IS EXHIBITING REASONABLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE GFS NOW TRENDING TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
THIS FORECAST IS HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF.

EARLIER CONCERNS REGARDING A POLAR FRONT UNDERCUTTING STRONG SWLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SRN PLAINS ARE LESSENING. WHILE UPPER BLOCK
OVER CNTRL CANADA WILL ULTIMATELY FORCE A DOMINANT SFC ANTICYCLONE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS...IT APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
AIR MASS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE MUCH SOUTH OF I-70 OVER KS/MO
THIS WEEKEND.

STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD INTO THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS FAR SOUTH AS WEST TX AT 27/00Z. THIS EVOLUTION WILL ALLOW
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE TO ADVANCE POLEWARD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHERE
PW VALUES SHOULD EASILY APPROACH 1.25 INCHES AS SFC DEW POINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR. LATEST
THINKING IS MODERATE-EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG ERN
PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM WCNTRL TX...NWD INTO SCNTRL KS
SATURDAY WHERE MUCAPE COULD APPROACH 4000 J/KG. IF THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT EVOLVES AS LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THEN POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES
CAN BE EXPECTED. CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ALONG DRYLINE FROM SWRN
TX...NWD INTO WRN KS SATURDAY THEN REDEVELOP AGAIN SUNDAY FROM SERN
KS...SWD INTO CNTRL TX AS MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTS INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE MS VALLEY BY EARLY
MONDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE MAY CONTINUE INTO THE DAY7 PERIOD BUT
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION DURING THE DAY5-6 TIME FRAME COULD
POTENTIALLY DISRUPT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...THUS CONFIDENCE IS
NOT AS HIGH.

[dhweather]

FWD AFD



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
342 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WITH MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT...IT WAS A PLEASANT
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THESE RIDGE AXES WILL SOON PASS EAST OF THE
AREA AS THE STORM SYSTEM NOW OVER CALIFORNIA SWINGS INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS ITS ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET EXITS THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND HEADS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LEE TROUGHING
WILL BE INDUCED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RAPIDLY CREATE A DRYLINE
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...ALONG
WHICH THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A
TENDENCY TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY...BUT
THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE WELL WEST OF NORTH TEXAS BY NIGHTFALL
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CONVECTION WILL BE ENTERING AN AREA OF
INCREASING CINH WITH A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. THE MAIN UPPER
LOW WILL SKIRT THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MAY
HELP MAINTAIN AT LEAST ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS NOT THE IDEAL TIME
OF DAY FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT WITH A 30- TO 40-KT LLJ BENEATH
CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT...THERE MAY BE SOME UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SUSTAINING LARGE
HAIL. REGARDLESS...3RD-PERIOD POPS ARE LOW AND EMPHASIZE LACK OF
CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE INTO NORTH
TEXAS. THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS HAVE THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE EAST OF
OUR AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT SLOWER. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW-
END POPS IN THE FAR EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
ENTER THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE COMPACT MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH AS IT
EMERGES FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE FEATURE BOTH STRETCHES VERTICALLY AND
MOVES POLEWARD. THE GREATER UNCERTAINTY IS RELATED TO HOW MUCH
ENERGY IS AVAILABLE FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...A DRYLINE TO OUR WEST (BUT LIKELY CLOSER) MAY AGAIN
FOCUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT COULD APPROACH SATURDAY EVENING.
WITH A VIGOROUS 40- TO 50-KT LLJ SATURDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FROM AS FAR NORTH AS KANSAS MAY BE ABLE TO CONGEAL INTO
A NOCTURNAL MCS THAT COULD FIND ITS WAY INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM
COULD IMPACT NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL THEN MEANDER TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY NEXT
WEEK...AND EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING IT COULD BECOME A CUT-
OFF. THE 12Z GFS HAS REDUCED THE AMPLITUDE OF BOTH THE BLOCKING
HIGH IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND THE LONGWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS (AS COMPARED TO THE 06Z SOLUTION)...BUT THE CUT-OFF
REMAINS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...IT TOO
HAS FULL-LATITUDE NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
IS NOT GOOD NEWS FOR DROUGHT-STRICKEN TEXAS AS THIS WILL SHUT-OFF
THE TYPICAL SPRING STORM MECHANISMS. CPC 6-10DAY AND 8-14DAY
OUTLOOKS (ENCOMPASSING APR 28 - MAY 6) SHOW AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW PRECIPITATION FOR NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS.

[gboudx]

dhweather's friend, the Cap, mentioned by Steve McCauley:

Storm chasers will no doubt be converging in the eastern Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma for Wednesday afternoon and evening as the dryline comes alive with supercell thunderstorms and scattered tornadoes. The storms will merge and sweep east into Oklahoma Wednesday night.

Storms will try to advance into north Texas, but yes, the cap should have firmly re-established itself across our area and will likely cause the storms to fall well to the west of the Metroplex. As always, we will be keeping an eye out for any weakness that may develop in the cap that would let these monsters in. But as of right now, the cap looks formidable and unlikely to allow the storms out west to survive their approach but will likely skirt the edge of the cap to our north and track across Oklahoma during the night.

Stay tuned...

[Ntxw]

We got to watch for MCS activity. Euro looks to drive several round of them across the northern and eastern half of the state regardless of the cap. FW mentioned this, and frankly I will take them over the supercells. Because any of those that do get going will be violent.