SPC AC 291721
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN U.S....
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES...CAROLINAS...AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
...MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S...
STRONGEST MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
SERN HEMISPHERE OF DEEP CYCLONE THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD LAKE MI AS NEAR 90KT 500MB
SPEED MAX EJECTS FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS BY 01/00Z. LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
SHOULD ADVANCE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF STATES TO A POSITION FROM ERN
TN...SWWD TO NEAR MOBILE BAY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
LATEST THINKING IS LATE DAY1 CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MULTI-DAY
CONVECTION/CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT LAPSE RATES SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER
DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED FROM NRN
FL INTO COASTAL SC. THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST
DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE SBCAPE COULD EXCEED 2000
J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES CERTAINLY FAVOR ORGANIZED DEEP
ROTATING UPDRAFTS...HOWEVER MULTI STORM MODES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THIS REGION. SQUALL LINE MAY BE ONGOING...OR DEVELOP...ALONG THE
SFC FRONT EARLY. GREATEST RISK FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE
NOTED ACROSS CNTRL GA INTO SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DO EVOLVE
ACROSS THIS REGION FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. 20Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FOR AGS
EXHIBITS 2200 J/KG SBCAPE WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF
40KT. IF THIS IS CHARACTERISTIC OF PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THEN
SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED ACROSS THIS REGION.
OTHERWISE DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE MORE COMMON WITH ORGANIZED SQUALL
LINE.
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL
SPREAD INTO VA PRIMARILY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. IT
APPEARS CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS ERN TN/WV
BY 18Z THEN SPREAD QUICKLY NEWD TOWARD THE PIEDMONT OF VA. FORECAST
LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE NO GREATER THAN
6.5 C/KM AND THIS MAY LIMIT BUOYANCY EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
EVEN SO...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD SEEP SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
LINE SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE THE GREATEST RISK WITH THE NRN-MOST
CONVECTION.
..DARROW.. 04/29/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1724Z (1:24PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 04/26-30/2014
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Janie2006
- Category 5
- Posts: 1328
- Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 3:28 pm
- Location: coastal Ms aka home of the hurricanes
Re: Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 04/26-30/2014
Looking back to the west, say at Lafayette and Lake Charles, the LI seems to be between -5 and -6. We're relatively stable right now at KMOB due to all the convection that moved through this morning, but with clearing off to the west, 850 mb winds from the south, and 700 mb winds from almost the same direction, and 500 mb winds from the west, not to mention the difference in wind speeds at 850 and 500 mb (at Tuscaloosa the 850 mb winds are 20 mph, but at 500 mb they are howling at *90* mph!!), differential divergence over Mississippi, blah, blah, blah...all the ingredients are in place and it won't take much to start another fire.
Last night was....interesting. 4.5 inches of rain, most of which fell in an hour, causing quite a lot of flash flooding, hai, and enough lightening to make you feel as if you were in a club with the strobe lights going at full steam.
Last night was....interesting. 4.5 inches of rain, most of which fell in an hour, causing quite a lot of flash flooding, hai, and enough lightening to make you feel as if you were in a club with the strobe lights going at full steam.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0476
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NRN SC...NC...FAR SRN VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 291726Z - 291900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AS
CELLS INCREASE IN INTENSITY...A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THE
MORE DOMINANT ROTATING STORMS. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WW ISSUANCE MAY
BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS NC LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHARPLY-DEFINED WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NC. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN A HAIL THREAT. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
SCNTRL NC AND NRN SC...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE
ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. THE WRF-HRRR AND 12Z NAM
ARE INITIATING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ON THE
NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWD TO NEAR AND JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. DUE TO CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 TO 60 KT LOW TO
MID-LEVEL JET...CELLS SHOULD BECOME ORGANIZED AS CELLS INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITIES AROUND 400 M2/S2 EVIDENT ON THE RALEIGH NC WSR-88D VWP
SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE
CORES.
..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2014
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 34437867 34358012 34678099 35448139 36438086 36768001
36717883 36367793 35767764 34857789 34437867
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NRN SC...NC...FAR SRN VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 291726Z - 291900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AS
CELLS INCREASE IN INTENSITY...A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THE
MORE DOMINANT ROTATING STORMS. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WW ISSUANCE MAY
BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS NC LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHARPLY-DEFINED WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NC. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN A HAIL THREAT. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
SCNTRL NC AND NRN SC...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE
ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. THE WRF-HRRR AND 12Z NAM
ARE INITIATING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ON THE
NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWD TO NEAR AND JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. DUE TO CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 TO 60 KT LOW TO
MID-LEVEL JET...CELLS SHOULD BECOME ORGANIZED AS CELLS INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITIES AROUND 400 M2/S2 EVIDENT ON THE RALEIGH NC WSR-88D VWP
SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE
CORES.
..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2014
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 34437867 34358012 34678099 35448139 36438086 36768001
36717883 36367793 35767764 34857789 34437867
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Probs are 80/50.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1245 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES
POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI TO 25 MILES WEST OF NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY BOTH ALONG A RETREATING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN SE MS/SW AL...AND IN THE EXPANDING WARM SECTOR
FROM NE LA INTO MS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS. A COUPLE STRONG
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST INTENSE
SUPERCELLS...AS WELL AS ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL. BY ABOUT MID
AFTERNOON...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD EWD INTO W CENTRAL AL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
...THOMPSON
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1245 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES
POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI TO 25 MILES WEST OF NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY BOTH ALONG A RETREATING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN SE MS/SW AL...AND IN THE EXPANDING WARM SECTOR
FROM NE LA INTO MS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS. A COUPLE STRONG
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST INTENSE
SUPERCELLS...AS WELL AS ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL. BY ABOUT MID
AFTERNOON...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD EWD INTO W CENTRAL AL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
...THOMPSON
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Re: Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 04/26-30/2014
I have a couple of terminology questions for the frequent posters here:
1. Is the "debris ball" in the SE the same thing that we call a "debris cloud" in south central?
2. When you say "visible" debris ball, do you mean visible on radar or eyesight?
3. We do not use the term "tornado emergency" in south central. Does that mean a visually sighted tornado or is it more of a "tornado warning?"
4. Can a radar indicated tornado create a "tornado emergency?"
I enjoy all the posts. Thank you for everything you all do to keep us informed.
Kitrin
1. Is the "debris ball" in the SE the same thing that we call a "debris cloud" in south central?
2. When you say "visible" debris ball, do you mean visible on radar or eyesight?
3. We do not use the term "tornado emergency" in south central. Does that mean a visually sighted tornado or is it more of a "tornado warning?"
4. Can a radar indicated tornado create a "tornado emergency?"
I enjoy all the posts. Thank you for everything you all do to keep us informed.
Kitrin
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 117
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
GREENSBORO NORTH CAROLINA TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF ELIZABETH CITY
NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 116...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN NC THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT.
VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY HAVE BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHERE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE THE
RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER SUSTAINED STORMS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22015.
...THOMPSON
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 117
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
GREENSBORO NORTH CAROLINA TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF ELIZABETH CITY
NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 116...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN NC THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT.
VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY HAVE BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHERE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE THE
RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER SUSTAINED STORMS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22015.
...THOMPSON
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Janie2006
- Category 5
- Posts: 1328
- Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 3:28 pm
- Location: coastal Ms aka home of the hurricanes
Re: Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 04/26-30/2014
...and we're off to the races. Again.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
126 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
MSC059-291845-
/O.CON.KLIX.SV.W.0035.000000T0000Z-140429T1845Z/
JACKSON MS-
126 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT
FOR JACKSON COUNTY...
AT 124 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF VANCLEAVE...OR 14 MILES
NORTH OF ST. MARTIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WADE
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.
Heavy rain and lots of CG lightning happening here at the moment.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
126 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
MSC059-291845-
/O.CON.KLIX.SV.W.0035.000000T0000Z-140429T1845Z/
JACKSON MS-
126 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT
FOR JACKSON COUNTY...
AT 124 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF VANCLEAVE...OR 14 MILES
NORTH OF ST. MARTIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WADE
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.
Heavy rain and lots of CG lightning happening here at the moment.
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Re: Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 04/26-30/2014
Kitrin wrote:I have a couple of terminology questions for the frequent posters here:
1. Is the "debris ball" in the SE the same thing that we call a "debris cloud" in south central?
2. When you say "visible" debris ball, do you mean visible on radar or eyesight?
3. We do not use the term "tornado emergency" in south central. Does that mean a visually sighted tornado or is it more of a "tornado warning?"
4. Can a radar indicated tornado create a "tornado emergency?"
I enjoy all the posts. Thank you for everything you all do to keep us informed.
Kitrin
I'll do my best to tackle these questions, anyone with more knowledge feel free to correct. I'm still learning about the newer technologies and terms.
1. Not sure about this one but I believe the term debris cloud has more to do with a visual sighting of debris in the area immediately surrounding a tornado.
2. A debris ball is a radar signature of debris from a tornado, this can be verified by looking at hd radar and the dual pole.
3. A tornado emergency is usually reserved for a situation where a tornado is threatening a more populated area. Not positive if this requires ground sighting but generally it is a more enhanced tornado warning reserved for expected EF2+ tornadoes.
4. Don't know the answer to this for sure.
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Janie2006
- Category 5
- Posts: 1328
- Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 3:28 pm
- Location: coastal Ms aka home of the hurricanes
A "Tornado Emergency" is issued by NWS whenever there is a strong probability of a strong tornado striking an area of significant population....should the tornado strike a city like Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, or whatever, the likely loss of life would be relatively high, hence the "emergency".
And, yep, you'd better believe that radar can be used to issue this kind of warning. If you've got a strong signature on radar, such as the one we saw in TN last night, for example, it's a safe bet that a tornado is lurking.
And, yep, you'd better believe that radar can be used to issue this kind of warning. If you've got a strong signature on radar, such as the one we saw in TN last night, for example, it's a safe bet that a tornado is lurking.
Last edited by Janie2006 on Tue Apr 29, 2014 1:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 04/26-30/2014
Here is some info on the criteria for tornado emergencies from NWS Des Moines and Nashville via wikipedia. Appears to be slight disagreement about whether the tornado has to have been spotted on the ground. Seeing a debris signature on the radar should be sufficient.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_emergency#Criteria
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_emergency#Criteria
0 likes
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Janie2006
- Category 5
- Posts: 1328
- Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 3:28 pm
- Location: coastal Ms aka home of the hurricanes
Re: Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 04/26-30/2014
In events like this very heavy rainfall is often overlooked as a source of danger, but don't be fooled. These storms are *very* efficient producers of rain and lightning. They can easily drop several inches per hour, especially if they train over the same areas.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
139 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ST. MARTIN...PASCAGOULA...OCEAN
SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...ESCATAWPA...
* UNTIL 345 PM CDT
* AT 134 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLY LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS MOST OF JACKSON COUNTY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
139 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ST. MARTIN...PASCAGOULA...OCEAN
SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...ESCATAWPA...
* UNTIL 345 PM CDT
* AT 134 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLY LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS MOST OF JACKSON COUNTY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA.
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-
Janie2006
- Category 5
- Posts: 1328
- Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 3:28 pm
- Location: coastal Ms aka home of the hurricanes
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
153 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
MOBILE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
* UNTIL 500 PM CDT
* AT 142 PM CDT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WAS INDICATED OVER THE WARNED
AREA AND RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR
FALLING ON URBANIZED AREAS. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
IN THE WARNED AREA.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MIDTOWN MOBILE... DOWNTOWN MOBILE... MOVICO...
TILLMANS CORNER... THEODORE... SEMMES...
SATSUMA... SARALAND... PRICHARD...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
NEVER TRY TO CROSS OR PLAY IN AN URBAN SPILLWAY OR FLOWING CREEK...
EVEN A SMALL ONE. URBAN FLASH FLOODING IS A MAJOR KILLER.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
153 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
MOBILE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
* UNTIL 500 PM CDT
* AT 142 PM CDT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WAS INDICATED OVER THE WARNED
AREA AND RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR
FALLING ON URBANIZED AREAS. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
IN THE WARNED AREA.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MIDTOWN MOBILE... DOWNTOWN MOBILE... MOVICO...
TILLMANS CORNER... THEODORE... SEMMES...
SATSUMA... SARALAND... PRICHARD...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
NEVER TRY TO CROSS OR PLAY IN AN URBAN SPILLWAY OR FLOWING CREEK...
EVEN A SMALL ONE. URBAN FLASH FLOODING IS A MAJOR KILLER.
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Re:
EF-5bigj wrote:Today does not feel near as humid or volitile as yesterday.
Looks like most of MS and AL are mid to upper 60s for dew points with some 70s to the south.
I don't think there will be as many tornadoes today but wouldn't be surprised to see a few stronger ones.
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Well the storms just about tapped the area out of energy it seems like we had violent wedge tornadoes all around yesterday. That Loiusville,MS storm had some of the most picturesque structure I've ever seen.
Last edited by EF-5bigj on Tue Apr 29, 2014 2:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
Janie2006
- Category 5
- Posts: 1328
- Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 3:28 pm
- Location: coastal Ms aka home of the hurricanes
Re: Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 04/26-30/2014
I don't like this. 18Z KLIX sounding...CAPE is 2443, up from 1200 earlier today. I'll grant that it's sunny there at the moment, whilst at KMOB we have a thunderstorm.
Still, the CAPE is higher now than it was for the Mobile Christmas tornado of 2012 ( I *think* it was 2012). Since this band of storms came in off the Gulf (and in a hurry!) I do have to wonder about the potential for discrete supercells along the coast, especially if we manage to get the sun out for a while.
Still, the CAPE is higher now than it was for the Mobile Christmas tornado of 2012 ( I *think* it was 2012). Since this band of storms came in off the Gulf (and in a hurry!) I do have to wonder about the potential for discrete supercells along the coast, especially if we manage to get the sun out for a while.
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