Texas Fall 2021

[EnnisTx]

We need a strong system and a strong front to shake things up. The thread is dead!!!!

We have one coming in this week.

It will be a nice cool down, but not what you would consider a strong one.

[gpsnowman]

We need a strong system and a strong front to shake things up. The thread is dead!!!!

We have one coming in this week.

It will be a nice cool down, but not what you would consider a strong one.

Yeah it will be a nice change of pace but not exactly a major pattern disruption. Even the rain chances are looking less than spectacular.

[Brent]

We have one coming in this week.

It will be a nice cool down, but not what you would consider a strong one.

Yeah it will be a nice change of pace but not exactly a major pattern disruption. Even the rain chances are looking less than spectacular.

Yeah most of the rain looks to be in Oklahoma tbh

And even up here temps won't be colder than last week really. Different from the 70s yes but for mid November not impressive. We've had actual Arctic air in other years by now

I will say the LR GFS is showing the coldest air of the season end of next week

[snowballzzz]

6Z GFS showing huge storm over the central plains for the week of Thanksgiving. Nice high pressure system over the Dakotas with temps well below zero Thanksgiving day! Temps in the 20's for all of Oklahoma. Would be awesome to have a seasonably cold Thanksgiving for once. I feel like the past several years we have had very warm Thanksgivings and Christmases. Are the tides changing? we shall see!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

We need a strong system and a strong front to shake things up. The thread is dead!!!!

Welcome to La nina. She will eventually make some noise though.

[wxman22]

We need a strong system and a strong front to shake things up. The thread is dead!!!!

Welcome to La nina. She will eventually make some noise though.

Yep, expect periods of dry weather with average to mild temps in a zonal flow.With sporadic arctic air intrusions and winter storms in between.As typical with La Nina winters when it does get cold though it may get REALLY cold.The pattern this season seems about the same as last fall/winter.

[Brent]

We need a strong system and a strong front to shake things up. The thread is dead!!!!

Welcome to La nina. She will eventually make some noise though.

Yep, expect periods of dry weather with average to mild temps in a zonal flow.With sporadic arctic air intrusions and winter storms in between.As typical with La Nina winters when it does get cold though it may get REALLY cold.The pattern this season seems about the same as last fall/winter.

Yeah I'd be surprised if we had anything extreme like February but there will definitely be cold outbreaks at some point. Honestly when we had cold in November recently the winter sucked so maybe it's not a bad thing to wait

[gpsnowman]

I love cold Thanksgivings in east Texas where I normally go. Trading a warm November for a cold DJFM is a good deal.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like a round of storms tonight from DFW up into OK.

[bubba hotep]

This first wave of storms wasn't handled well by models, seems to be way over performing.

[bubba hotep]

[bubba hotep]

[ElectricStorm]

Those 2 cells down by Wichita Falls look like they might become the the main event in terms of any tornado activity. There's a few areas in the line in OK that may try to spin something up but those 2 supercells down there are nasty.

Getting some heavy rain and small hail right now.

EDIT: Adding the cell near Gainesville to that list. It has a more favorable motion than the other 2, moving east instead of SE

[Iceresistance]

Those 2 cells down by Wichita Falls look like they might become the the main event in terms of any tornado activity. There's a few areas in the line in OK that may try to spin something up but those 2 supercells down there are nasty.

Getting some heavy rain and small hail right now.

EDIT: Adding the cell near Gainesville to that list. It has a more favorable motion than the other 2, moving east instead of SE

Tornado on the ground NE of Duncan, OK

[bubba hotep]

This is a nasty looking cell heading SE into the northern burbs.

[Quixotic]

This is a nasty looking cell heading SE into the northern burbs.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FD4KpVTWQAIqCK7?format=jpg&name=medium

Of course our cars are stuck outside because we emptied the attic into the garage today.

[cstrunk]

A nice 0.98" from tonight's storms. A little breezy but nothing severe.

[starsfan65]

What is the weather going to be on Thanksgiving?

[Ntxw]

Quick update this morning.

There are two camps the GFS (and family) + Canadian which has a not so good Pacific flow. Locks the cold air far North in Alaska.

Then you have the Euro (and family) which puts a loading HP over the Beaufort which sets up cross polar flow and sets up a potential Arctic attack towards the later half of the month.

Two very different outcomes. For the next week or so seasonably cool then seasonably mild rollercoaster. However all of the models start with the Beaufort HP but diverge beyond that.

[starsfan65]

Quick update this morning.

There are two camps the GFS (and family) + Canadian which has a not so good Pacific flow. Locks the cold air far North in Alaska.

Then you have the Euro (and family) which puts a loading HP over the Beaufort which sets up cross polar flow and sets up a potential Arctic attack towards the later half of the month.

Two very different outcomes. For the next week or so seasonably cool then seasonably mild rollercoaster. However all of the models start with the Beaufort HP but diverge beyond that.

GFS says no cold, but Euro says cold.