South Texas Storms wrote:Ntxw wrote:Curious to see if the Euro keeps it 12z run. It is punching the system into the ridge though so some level of skepticism. Even the latest GFS solution isn't 'too bad' at least for the coast and southern tier of the state.
In other news the SOI still can't hold negatives, it did one day then reverted positive, though not terribly positive but still more consistently +.
As much as I want the 0z Euro to verify with that tropical system, I find it highly unlikely. Think the ridge will hold firm and whatever becomes of that will remain east of the state. The long-range GFS is spitting out some insane heat over north TX later this month. Yikes if that happens, which actually isn't too unlikely sadly...
I did a short reanalysis from the air just above the surface since May. North Texas has seen anomalous warmth up there. It's more than just a ground/surface drought/heat, it's occurring up and down the layer of the atmosphere, at 4SDs in some spots that's likely the warmest on record for the period. The upper levels is primed so I wouldn't doubt something extreme could occur at the surface should it continue in this area.