Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 200949
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST SUN JUN 20 2010

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED. THE WIND
WAS MAINLY EAST AT 10 MPH.

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT...TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...SOME WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEAS OF 8 FEET OR LESS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...AND
ACROSS THE PASSAGES. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION.

$$

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
756 AM AST SUN JUN 20 2010

PRC049-147-VIC010-020-030-201500-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0214.100620T1156Z-100620T1500Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CULEBRA PR-VIEQUES PR-SAINT JOHN VI-SAINT THOMAS VI-SAINT CROIX VI-
756 AM AST SUN JUN 20 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED AND EXPANDED
THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES AND ISLANDS...

IN PUERTO RICO
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT JOHN...SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT CROIX

* UNTIL 1100 AM AST

AT 750 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES...THROUGH AT LEAST 11 AM AST.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND GUTS...
AND LOW SPOTS IN HIGHWAYS. ADDITIONALLY...ROADS AND LAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO
FLOODING. ALSO...MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

[BatzVI]

Heavy rain and gusty winds right now....get ready Luis, it's headed your way...

[cycloneye]

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
715 AM AST SUN JUN 20 2010

AMZ710-715-722-725-732-201915-
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT
10 NM-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
715 AM AST SUN JUN 20 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS
MORNING...

AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...SURROUNDING BOTH PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THIS MORNING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES...AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR UNTIL THESE
STORMS PASS.

STAY TUNED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN
JUAN

[msbee]

be safe you guys!

[cycloneye]

I was with the family celebrating fathers day but I am here again to post the updates.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
329 PM AST SUN JUN 20 2010

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER TROUGH/TUTT JUST WEST NORTHWEST OF PUERTO
RICO WITH SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION MOVING THROUGH THE BASE AND
CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...CREATED GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
PATTERN ACROSS REGION.THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A VERY UNSTABLE UPPER
LEVEL ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE TRAILING EDGE OF TROPICAL
WAVE WHICH WAS NOW MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND A STRONG ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC... WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO AS
NORTHERN MODULATION OF ITCZ MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AND SHIFT
SOUTH OF THE REGION ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY...LEAVING THE
PREVAILING EASTERLIES TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF TRADE WIND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY TODAY AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS TO ENHANCE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WITH SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT
CROIX RECEIVING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES OF
RAINFALL TODAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL TAPERING OFF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE MOVES FURTHER WEST AWAY FROM THE AREA. THEREAFTER...A SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND POSSIBLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MORE LOCAL AND DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAINLY DURING THE
EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOONS WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE
WEATHER ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH NEXT APPROACHING WAVE. LOCAL SOIL ACROSS
ISLANDS REMAIN FAIRLY SATURATED AND THEREFORE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS WELL AS MUDSLIDES IN ARES OF STEEP
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DAYS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINING NEAR TWO INCHES OR MORE FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO STAY
ALERT AND KEEP ABREAST OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND BE EXTRA
CAUTIOUS WHEN NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...TEMPORARY MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL THE
LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH 20/23Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TKPK WHERE VFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. IN ADDITION...BRIEF IFR CONDS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST...TNCM AND TISX THROUGH 20/23Z IN A
PASSING SHRA OR TSRA. PREVAILING VFR CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AFT 20/23Z...WITH A VCSH REMAINING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VI AS
WELL AS TNCM AND TKPK IN A GENERALLY EASTERLY LLVL WIND FLOW OF 10
TO 20 KTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...WITH NEARLY 7 AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATING
ON SAINT THOMAS THE PAST 48 HOURS...AND 7.71 INCHES SO FAR THIS
JUNE...JUNE 2010 HAS NOW BECOME THE SECOND WETTEST MONTH AT THE
CYRIL E KING AIRPORT ON SAINT THOMAS SINCE RECORD KEEPING BEGAN. THE
WETTEST MONTH ON RECORD REMAINS JUNE 1956...WHEN A TOTAL 8.29 INCHES
ACCUMULATED AT THE AIRPORT. WITH MORE WET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT WEEK...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY MAKE JUND 2010 THE
WETTEST ON RECORD IN SAINT THOMAS.

THE WET WEATHER HAS NOT BEEN LIMITED TO SAINT THOMAS...A RECORD 3.05
INCHES OF RAIN HAS ACCUMULATED ON SAINT CROIX TODAY...WITH THIS
TOTAL LIKELY TO GROW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
416 PM AST SUN JUN 20 2010

PRZ001>004-012-013-VIZ001-002-210800-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-100621T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-CULEBRA-
VIEQUES-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE...CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...
CRUZ BAY...CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...
GROVE PLACE
416 PM AST SUN JUN 20 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...EASTERN INTERIOR...
NORTHEAST...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...SOUTHEAST AND VIEQUES. IN
VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
ISLANDS.

* THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING

* A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS LEFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROPICAL WAVE WILL STILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

* ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND ALL OF
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS RAINFALL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO AGAIN
PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...AND FOR THIS REASON THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS...VISITORS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE URGED TO REMAIN ALERT TO
DEVELOPING WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...
AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR
YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

[Macrocane]

The rains of the last 2 days have caused some floods and mudslides in El Salvador, at least 400 families have been affected thankfully no deaths have been reported. Yesterday observations:

Rainfall
Paz River 62 mm/2.44 inches
Acajutla 30 mm/1.18 inches
Santa Ana 60 mm/2.36 inches
San Salvador 45 mm/1.77 inches

Temperatures

Code: Select all

Acajutla         min:21.1°C/70.0°F      max:30.7°C/87.3°F
Santa Ana        min:18.9°C/66.0°F      max:29.7°C/85.5°F
San Salvador     min:19.2°C/66.6°F      max:30.4°C/86.7°F
Las Pilas        min:13.3°C/55.9°F      max:20.4°C/68.7°F
San Miguel       min:22.8°C/73.0°F      max:35.3°C/95.5°F


[abajan]

We recently had some heavy showers, and we're getting a bit of distant lightning and thunder in the south of Barbados from the tail of that strong wave (Invest 92L). It was generally overcast and showery for most of the day.

Stay safe, you guys in the islands to our northwest.

[cycloneye]

There is not one but two waves being mentioned.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CUBA SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...
JAMAICA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND MUCH OF CUBA AS THE WAVE MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...AND ADJACENT WATERS
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...
AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA

[Gustywind]

The train is in route? and they "forget" to mention the third on the verge of exiting of Africa with a such nice structure too. We're only the 19th of June ?!... something to meditate for the next two months...

[Gustywind]

We recently had some heavy showers, and we're getting a bit of distant lightning and thunder in the south of Barbados from the tail of that strong wave (Invest 92L). It was generally overcast and showery for most of the day.

Stay safe, you guys in the islands to our northwest.

Thanks for this precious info Abajan .

[cycloneye]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
857 PM AST SUN JUN 20 2010

VIC020-030-210300-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0220.100621T0057Z-100621T0300Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAINT JOHN VI-SAINT THOMAS VI-
857 PM AST SUN JUN 20 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS...

IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT JOHN AND SAINT THOMAS

* UNTIL 1100 PM AST

* AT 855 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF FROM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND GUTS...AND LOW
SPOTS IN HIGHWAYS. ADDITIONALLY...ROADS AND LAND ALONG THE BANKS OF
CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO
FLOODING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[Gustywind]

Looking at Africa




http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... ew.NGT.jpg

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1104 PM AST SUN JUN 20 2010

.UPDATE...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY BIG PROBLEMS
OVERNIGHT...DECIDED TO LEAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS UNTIL 400 AM
AST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO
RICO. SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO BOTH
TO KEEP FORECASTS UP TO DATE WITH CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF MINOR ALTERATIONS TO THE
PREVIOUS CWF...MAINLY TO THE SYNOPSIS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND MOST LOCAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...MVFR AND
EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL OCCUR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Less rain for today,but the afternoon diurnal cycle will occur.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210925
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST MON JUN 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...LARGE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND BY
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH/TUTT JUST WEST
NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO WILL GENERATE A VERY UNSTABLE UPPER LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH TUESDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS TODAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED AT AROUND
49 WEST...THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH OUR LOCAL WATERS BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY REMAINED OVER WATERS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVE ON SHORE
MAINLY AFFECTING THE MUNICIPALITY OF NAGUABO. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND AFFECT THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA
BEFORE SUNRISE.

THIS AFTERNOON...LARGE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INTERACT
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH/TUTT TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE MORNING HOURS ENOUGH
DIURNAL HEATING WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON HOURS TO IGNITE
CONVECTION ALONG THESE AREAS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS TJSJ FROM 21/10Z THROUGH 21/12Z IN -SHRA OR SHRA. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ...AND TJBQ WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN TSRA.

&&

.MARINE... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PARTS OF THE REGIONAL WATERS THIS MORNING. A MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...MAINTAINING LOCALLY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS. THEREFORE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS

[tropicana]

Mon Jun 21 2010

More heavy rain across the Southern Caribbean as the ITCZ remains quite active across this region. Crown Point, Tobago has recorded in excess of 83mm in the past 12 hours ending this morning, an amount which would have caused some flooding. Arnos Vale in St Vincent has seen 63mm in the past 24 hours! Piarco International, T'dad had a rainy night, rainfall total in the 12 hours to this morning was 15mm.

Grantley Adam's Airport in Barbados saw 38mm of rain on Sunday as did Rockley,. Christchurch, on Barbados's southern coast.

[Macrocane]

Yesterday (June 20 2010) observations in El Salvador:

Rainfall
Santa Ana 45 mm/1.77 inches
San Salvador 5 mm/0.20 inches
Cojutepeque 61 mm/2.40 inches
Cerron Grande 58 mm/2.28 inches
Santiago de Maria 58 mm/2.28 inches

Temperatures

Code: Select all

Acajutla         min:21.2°C/70.2°F      max:30.8°C/87.4°F
Santa Ana        min:18.9°C/66.0°F      max:30.0°C/86.0°F
San Salvador     min:19.5°C/67.1°F      max:30.7°C/87.3°F
Las Pilas        min:13.3°C/55.9°F      max:20.3°C/68.5°F
San Miguel       min:22.5°C/72.5°F      max:35.5°C/95.9°F


[cycloneye]

A wet week ahead.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
245 PM AST MON JUN 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE AND SEVERAL MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL
MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED 55 WEST WILL
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING AN
ACTIVE/WET PATTERN ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION INDUCED BY DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER
DYNAMICS BEGAN TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO AROUND NOON.
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. PASSING SHOWERS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE TROPICAL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

DEEP MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL INDUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL WAVE NOW
LOCATED NEAR 55 WEST APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. PROGNOSTIC SOUNDINGS
AND LATEST MODELS RUNS INDICATE PW VALUES ABOVE TWO INCHES AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST SEVERAL DAYS. DUE TO ALREADY
SATURATED SOILS...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS WELL AS INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

LOOKING AHEAD...A SLOW DRYING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA BY THE END OF THE MONTH...BUT SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJBQ AND TJMZ THROUGH 21/23Z. IN ADDITION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ IN A PASSING SHRA. PREVAILING VFR CONS
WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST 22/14Z. PREVAILING EASTERLY LLVL WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 20
KTS...EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS TOMORROW.


&&

.CLIMATE...TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF SUMMER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE. SO FAR...2010 HAS BEEN AN EXTREMELY WET AND WARM YEAR
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. AS OF JUNE 20TH...2010 RANKS AS
THE SECOND WETTEST START TO A YEAR ON RECORD IN SAN JUAN...WITH
36.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAVING ACCUMULATED AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR. IN 1956...A RECORD
36.95 INCHES HAD ACCUMULATED IN SAN JUAN BY THE 20TH OF JUNE. IN
ADDITION...2010 HAS BEEN AN UNUSUALLY WARM YEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN SAN JUAN
AVERAGING AT LEAST ONE DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL EVERY SINGLE MONTH OF
2010. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT VARIOUS RECORDS BROKEN THIS PAST WEEKEND
WITH THE PREVIOUS TROPICAL WAVE...SEE THE LATEST NEWS HEADLINE AT:
http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

[cycloneye]

Record rainfall occured with the passage of the strong wave last weekend. See the records at link below.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=record062110