Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

St. Maarten is getting radar!

http://www.sxmislandtime.com/index.php? ... &Itemid=76

[Gustywind]

St. Maarten is getting radar!

http://www.sxmislandtime.com/index.php? ... &Itemid=76

[Macrocane]

EPAC TWO

THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION DARBY ARE LOCATED ABOUT
100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO AND ARE MOVING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
LOSE ITS IDENTITY...A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...AND EL SALVADOR DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD
AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

[alanstover]

Thanks to all posting info relevant to Central America on this thread, especially Macrocane with info from El Salvador. I haven´t seen anyone from Guatemala on here, so I decided to sign up and perhaps give some occasional observations from Western Guatemala.

We have been having moderate rain since Sat. pm, along with some fairly strong winds from the SW.

Alan

[Macrocane]

Welcome to this board, it's good to have another central american here, we will really appreciate the info that you can give us.

[cycloneye]

Thanks to all posting info relevant to Central America on this thread, especially Macrocane with info from El Salvador. I haven´t seen anyone from Guatemala on here, so I decided to sign up and perhaps give some occasional observations from Western Guatemala.

We have been having moderate rain since Sat. pm, along with some fairly strong winds from the SW.

Alan

Welcome to storm2k and if you have any questions,dont hesitate to ask. As you can see,this thread is for all who live in the Caribbean and Central America to post the observations from their areas so you have the green light to do the same. I am sad by the fatalities that have occured in that country after the recent rains there.

[cycloneye]

T DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
559 AM AST TUE JUN 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
A TUTT (LOW) TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT IT MAY NOT GET
FURTHER WEST THAN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS TUTT BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AND LIFT OUT SATURDAY...AS A NEW TUTT SEGMENT DEVELOPS JUST WEST
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY AND THIS MOISTURE WILL STILL COMBINE WITH GOOD
HEATING...LOCAL SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND A
VENTILATING UPPER LEVEL...SOUTH FLOW...TO AGAIN PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...WITH THE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLASH AND
RIVER FLOODING.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION A BIT...THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AROUND EACH DAY...TO RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THIS STILL SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY TRUE LATER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A MOIST SURGE AFFECTS THE LOCAL AREA...
POSSIBLY INDUCED FROM THE APPROACHING TUTT TO OUR EAST NORTHEAST.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY (THE FOURTH OF JULY)...STILL LOOKS LIKE
A TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE FA...LEAVING THESE THREE DAYS WITH PRETTY DECENT WEATHER
LOCALLY. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH APPROACHING TUTT LOW NEVER MOVES OVER
THE LOCAL ISLANDS...THE OVERALL TUTT "AXIS" WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND GFS INDICATES A MODEST...DIVERGENT WIND MAX ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE TUTT LOW AND THESE TWO FACTORS SHOULD PRODUCE FAIRLY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS LOCALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING TUTT SEGMENT JUST TO OUR WEST
NORTHWEST AIDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY. THUS...ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF NICE WEATHER DURING THESE DAYS...THERE
WILL STILL BE DIURNALLY/NOCTURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION EACH DAY
AND LIKELY AIDED BY THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT TO THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
29/12Z...WITH VCSH OR -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST...TJSJ...TKPK AND
TNCM. AFT 29/16Z...MVFR CONDS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
EXPECTED IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ IN SHRA OR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY.

[alanstover]

Macrocane, what is the weather doing there in ES this morning?
Here winds have died down a bit and the sun is trying to peak thru the cloud cover, but I don´t know if that will last or is just temporary. Hopefully as Alex moves north we will soon see the sun again.

[Macrocane]

Good morning, we don't have rains in El Salvador either though it's cloudy and as you said the winds have calmed down, I think that later today we could have some rains but hopefully they won't be as intense as yesterday, here are some galleries with pictures of the floods that affected the country yesterday:

http://www.elsalvador.com/mwedh/nota/popGaleria.asp?idArt=4923554&idcat=6364

http://www.laprensagrafica.com/component/ignitegallery/view/3001.html

[Macrocane]

Here is the map of the accumulated rainfall between 7:00 am yesterday and 7:00 am today, take a look at how much it rained in the central part of the country especially in Ilopango (east of San Salvador) where 130.2 mm/5.13 inches were registered:

[Macrocane]

And here is the accumulated rain in Guatemala on June 27 and June 28 on the 5 stations with the highest amounts:

June 27 2010
Retalhuleu 211 mm/8.31 inches
Tecun Uman 182 mm/7.17 inches
San Marcos 166 mm/6.54 inches
Champerico 100 mm/3.94 inches
Nebaj 88 mm/3.46 inches

June 28 2010
San Marcos 80 mm/3.15 inches
Champerico 67 mm/2.64 inches
Santiago Atitlan 65 mm/2.56 inches
Santa Maria Cotzumalguapa 60 mm/2.36 inches
Mazatenango 56 mm/2.20 inches

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST TUE JUN 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY...LIMITING THE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
OR NEAR TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FUEL PROVIDED BY A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE
PREVAILING LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...COMBINED WITH THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE...LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND A STILL DECENT UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMIC...PRODUCED A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE RUNOFF FROM THESE RAINS WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES IN SOME
RIVERS ACROSS THOSE SECTORS OF THE ISLAND DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL INHIBIT A BIT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY. HOWEVER THE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOME
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGESTS A
DECREASING TREND IN THE PWAT VALUES UNTIL THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
EARLY DURING THE NEXT WORK WEEK. A TUTT LOW WILL APPROACH TO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SLIGHTLY
INCREASING THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FA. BY THAT TIME A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE WILL ALSO PASS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH
LIMITED EFFECTS...IF ANY ACROSS THE FA. A MORE STRONGER TROPICAL
WAVE...ALONG 47 WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL TRACK SLOWLY
WESTWARD...PASSING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK...BRINGING A NEW ROUND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
TJMZ...TNCM AND TKPK. CIGS WILL LIKELY CLEAR FROM TJMZ BTWN
29/23Z-30/02Z. OCNL MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN TNCM AND TKPK THRU
30/18Z. LLVL FLOW WILL GENERALLY SHIFT FROM 110 DEGREES TO 080
DEGREES AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1103 PM AST TUE JUN 29 2010

.UPDATE...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
DISSIPATED OR MOVED OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...WHILE
PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AND REACH SOME OF THE
ADJACENT ISLANDS AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. MEANWHILE...AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH/TUTT REFLECTION
CONTINUED TO APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH LATEST
TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING AS WELL AS MIMIC TPW ANALYSIS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE
WATER AROUND 2.00 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION...STILL EXPECT SLIGHTLY
DRIER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT SUFFICIENT AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL
AND DIURNAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS
THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW AND THEREFORE NO MAJOR CHANGES
WERE MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AT
LEAST THROUGH 30/16Z. VCSH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TIST...AND
TISX. FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS...TJBQ AND TJMZ IN TSRA. LATEST 00Z
TJSJ SHOWED EAST WINDS OF 15-20KTS PREVAILING FROM THE SURFACE UP TO
30K FEET...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ABOVE.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300815
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
415 AM AST WED JUN 30 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE LOCAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS BY LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REGION. A MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW JUST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THIS MORNING...WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS OR NEAR TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS IN RESPONSE TO SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING AHEAD OF
INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH LATEST GFS RUN DECREASES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS
USVI AND PR. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT TO
COMBINE WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEAT AND SEA BREEZE EFFECTS TO
GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL LIMIT
SOMEWHAT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WHICH CASE
THEY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WEST...WEST INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD MAINTAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE ON ITS WAKE TO RESULT IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 45-50 WEST SHOULD PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

GFS MODEL PERSISTS ON DRYING TREND FOR THIS FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 WHICH SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN INDICATION OF MUCH DRIER WEATHER
ALTHOUGH WE CAN NOT OVERRULE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OUT WEST DUE TO
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS.

GFS MODEL SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 25 WEST THIS MORNING MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
30/16Z...WITH LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS TIST...TJSJ...TKPK AND
TNCM. AFT 30/16Z...MVFR CONDS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
EXPECTED IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ IN SHRA OR TSRA.

[Macrocane]

El Salvador is still recieving rains from the large circulation of Alex but they have not been as storng as in the weekned and on Monday. This is the accumulated rainfall yesterday:



And this is the accumlated rain between 7:00 am June 25 and 7:00 am June 29, the highest amount in this period was 301.1 mm/11.9 inches and registered in La Hachadura the same place that experienced the highest amount with Agatha:

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301914
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST WED JUN 30 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TUTT LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TUTT WILL RETREAT ON
SATURDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE FORMS IN THE CARIBBEAN NEAR THE MONA CHANNEL. AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH A WEAK NORTHERLY JET WILL FORM ACROSS PUERTO
RICO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY BY AN INVERTED TROUGH ON
THURSDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...A MID LATITUDE HIGH AT 60 WEST WILL MOVE TO 40
NORTH AND 27 WEST OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK A RIDGE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND MOVE WEST AHEAD
OF A TROUGH ON THURSDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WILL MOVE THROUGH PUERTO
RICO EARLY TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE NEAR 54 WEST WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA...MAINLY SOUTH...ON FRIDAY. DRIER WEATHER OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL PRECEDE A MODERATE TROPICAL WAVE NOW APPROACHING
30 WEST...THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY AND
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE ISLAND. A WEAK
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IS VISIBLE ON RADAR
IN THE FORM OF WESTWARD MOVING SHOWERS...BUT IS NOT AS STRONG A
PRECIPITATION GENERATOR AS NAM AND GFS HAD INDICATED...NEVERTHELESS
IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO THE
NIGHT...MAINLY OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND EAST. WINDS INCREASE
TOMORROW WITH A WIND SURGE...MAINLY ABOVE THE SURFACE...BUT
BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO THE GROUND TOMORROW...THAT WILL MIX
IN DRIER AIR AND LIMIT THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WEST TOMORROW. FOCUS OF THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST...BUT SHOWER FORMATION WILL BE SPOTTY. BETTER
WEATHER WILL BE EXPERIENCED OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL END MONDAY
NIGHT WITH THE ENTRANCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS ONE LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT BUT WITH MODEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN EXPECTED AS IT
PASSES. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WAVES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
240 HOURS...ALTHOUGH AFTER MONDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
AGAIN BECOME THE RULE OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOONS
WITH EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ON THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE LAST WAVE ON TUESDAY A
LITTLE MORE THAN THE ONE AT OUR DOOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT IN POSSIBLE
TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY FOR TJMZ BUT ISOLD SHRA
EVERYWHERE ELSE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA FOR INTERIOR OF PR
ESPECIALLY WEST HALF WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN STORE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...PASSING TROUGH AND LARGE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH WILL
DRIVE SEAS TO 7 FEET IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE
CARIBBEAN THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE UNTIL INDEPENDENCE DAY.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The haze returns this weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST THU JUL 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TUTT LOW MOVED TOWARD THE NE CARIB AREA FROM
THE EAST DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AND PROMOTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE TUTT WILL START TO RETREAT ON
FRIDAY SATURDAY LEAVING A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS PR/USVI
THROUGH MONDAY. AT LOW LEVELS THAT TAIL OF A WIND SURGE/INDUCED
TROUGH ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND CARIB WATERS INTERACTING WITH
TUTT LOW. WEAK PERTURBATION EAST OF THE ANTILLES SHOULD PASS SOUTH
OF LOCAL ISLANDS ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR NEAR 30 WEST
LONGITUDE TO APPROACH LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS UPPER TUTT LOW INTERACTED WITH MOIST UNSTABLE AIR IN WAKE
OF WIND SURGE/INDUCED TROUGH ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND MONA PASSAGE.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED SEVERAL SECTORS OF
PUERTO RICO WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES IN THREE
HOURS. GFS MODEL BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING WITH
LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST
WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. CONSIDERING CLIMATE NORMALS WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST INTERIOR BUT ISOLATED ELSEWHERE THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS PERSIST WITH DRY STABLE WEATHER TROUGH MONDAY
MORNING....BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WEATHER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE WAVE NEAR 30 WEST LONGITUDE
ARRIVES TO THE NE CARIB.

VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOWED THE LEADING
EDGE OF A SAHARAN DUST AIRMASS THAT WAS LOCATED EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THIS MORNING SAL CIMM IMAGE SHOWED THE DUST HAD
REACHED JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX. AS THE TUTT LOW MOVES
NE ON FRIDAY...MORE SINKING AIR MOTION/STABLE LAYERS ACRSS THE
AREA WILL MAKE THE DUST MORE EVIDENT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 01/22Z...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR
TIST...TISX...TNCM AND TKPK. OCNL MVFR TIL 13Z NEAR TJPS...TJMZ
AND NEAR TJBQ DUE TO INLAND SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA. MVFR
CONDS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED IN AND AROUND TJBQ
AND TJMZ IN SHRA OR TSRA BETWEEN 01/17Z AND 01/21Z. MODERATE TO STRONG
SE FLOW 20-25 KT AT FL050.

[Gustywind]

[msbee]

It's already hazy here
and my allergies are starting to act up already