Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Possible 04/26-30/2014

[EF-5bigj]

2 days of sever weather and strong tornadoes we will see if it materializes. Nothing standing out and we are nearing 3 pm.

[Alyono]

wasn't supposed to start firing until the late afternoon

[EF-5bigj]

I'll be watching to see if they do.

[windnrain]

Got a tornado watch but STILL no rain in Baton Rouge. I just don't know what it takes to get a little rain here.

[CrazyC83]

2000Z: no real change.

SPC AC 291954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MS/AL VICINITY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
SERN LA INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEVERAL TORNADOES...A FEW
OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG...VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY.

...SERN LA/MS/AL...

MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE 1630Z OUTLOOK ARE NEEDED.

CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW THAT PROGRESSED INTO SERN LA HAS STALLED AND IS
NOW ADVANCING NWD ACROSS SRN MS AS BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS HEATS
NORTH OF THE WIND SHIFT. 18Z SOUNDING FROM JAN APPEARS TO HAVE
SAMPLED WRN FRINGES OF CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER BUT
CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELD
EXPANDING/DEEPENING ACROSS SRN LA INTO CNTRL MS. SEVERAL DEEPER
UPDRAFTS WITH LIGHTNING HAVE EVOLVED ALONG THE DECAYING OUTFLOW OVER
SERN LA/SWRN MS. WITH TIME ADDITIONAL UPDRAFTS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO
THUNDERSTORMS AS AIRMASS RECOVERS IN WAKE OF OLD MCS.

...NC...

SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IS EVOLVING ALONG BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS WW117. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE EXPANDING IN AREAL
COVERAGE AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES WITH SUPERCELLS
ROOTED WITHIN MOIST/BUOYANT WARM SECTOR INFLOW.

..DARROW.. 04/29/2014

[WeatherGuesser]

2 new TORS in NC

[Janie2006]

Things beginning to cook in SE Louisiana

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
302 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ZACHARY...
SOUTHERN EAST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CLINTON...
ST. HELENA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GREENSBURG...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 258 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
SLAUGHTER...OR NEAR ZACHARY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

[windnrain]

Think we get any storms a smudge south? Like Baton Rouge proper? I'm starving for some lightning and wind! No tornados, but man I'd give anything to chill out on my front porch and watch one.

[Janie2006]

Atmosphere continuing to destabilize over south-central MS. It's no coincidence that these storms are starting to pop in the areas that have been seeing the most sun today and the greatest amount of divergence.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
313 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

MSC077-085-292045-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0172.000000T0000Z-140429T2045Z/
LINCOLN MS-LAWRENCE MS-
313 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
LAWRENCE AND NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 313 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BROOKHAVEN...
AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
SONTAG AROUND 325 PM CDT.
WANILLA AND OMA AROUND 335 PM CDT.

[Janie2006]

The primary storm motion thus far has been southwest to northeast, so if you get some storms building between Morgan City and Lake Charles it's likely you'll see something. Right now KLIX radar south and west of Baton Rouge is clear.

[WeatherGuesser]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
424 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

NCC195-292030-
/O.CON.KRAH.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-140429T2030Z/
WILSON NC-
424 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
WILSON COUNTY...

AT 421 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE
OF THE CITY OF WILSON... MOVING NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION TO A
TORNADO...LARGE DAMAGING HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAS BEEN REPORTED
IN WILSON.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILSON...ELM CITY...SHARPSBURG...BLACK CREEK AND WILLBANKS.

TAKE COVER NOW. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THIS STORM HAS A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS AND NOW A REPORTED TORNADO BY THE
PUBLIC.

LAT...LON 3563 7792 3571 7801 3572 7800 3573 7800
3581 7792 3584 7786 3584 7785 3586 7783
3587 7783 3583 7775 3573 7772 3570 7770
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 238DEG 17KT 3568 7787

$$

32

[Janie2006]

KMOB's radar received a direct lightning strike.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
313 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

ALC003-FLC033-113-292045-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-140429T2045Z/
BALDWIN AL-SANTA ROSA FL-ESCAMBIA FL-
313 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND BALDWIN COUNTIES...

AT 312 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR SILVERHILL...OR 22 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN MOBILE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LOXLEY...ROSINTON...ELSANOR...LILLIAN...SEMINOLE...GATESWOOD...
BEULAH...BELLVIEW...BRENT...BARRINEAU PARK...ENSLEY...CANTONMENT...
BAY SPRINGS...GONZALEZ...COTTAGE HILL...FERRY PASS...WALNUT
HILL...MOLINO...BARTH...PACE AND OAK GROVE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY
FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE
A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

[WeatherGuesser]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
424 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
NORTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
NORTHWESTERN SAMPSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHEASTERN HARNETT COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 423 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO 7
MILES NORTHEAST OF FAYETTEVILLE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FAYETTEVILLE...DUNN...BENSON...GODWIN...ERWIN...EASTOVER...COATS...
WADE...FALCON...LINDEN AND SPIVEY'S CORNER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3506 7877 3516 7892 3549 7865 3529 7837
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 221DEG 14KT 3513 7878
$$

[Janie2006]

Local media and NWS reporting flooding in downtown Mobile within the last hour.

[windnrain]

Yeah, I hear you. I have been watching the motion of storms. I just don't see anything developing south and west of me in Baton Rouge. IT kind of sucks, because this is the third day in a row we've been under a slight or higher area. We have been under a watch for a while now. I understand not getting a tornado, I don't want one, but not a single thunderstorm when we're at 60%+ chance of rain for day 3 now? Ugh.


When does the window close for us?

[EF-5bigj]

There is a confirmed tornado in NC. But yeah nothing is impressive on the radar that could change but that big batch of storms yesterday took a lot of the energy out of the atmosphere. There is some humidity here but it's not like Monday were it was oppossive.

[Janie2006]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
350 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN LEAKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHERN NESHOBA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWESTERN WINSTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 350 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TUSCOLA...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
MADDEN AROUND 400 PM CDT.
EDINBURG AND DOWDVILLE AROUND 405 PM CDT.
PEARL RIVER AROUND 415 PM CDT.
PHILADELPHIA AROUND 425 PM CDT.
STALLO AND BURNSIDE AROUND 430 PM CDT.

[PTrackerLA]

Hopefully the atmosphere is too worked over from the storms along the coast this morning for violent tornadoes. We received a whopping .01" of rainfall Sunday from this outbreak. It has now been weeks since significant rain has fallen and things are drying out quickly. Looks like zero chance of rain for the next 7 days as well. Hope things change soon.

[CrazyC83]

Not sure about this one...atmosphere up there isn't very unstable.

SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 118
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
TUSCALOOSA ALABAMA TO 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF GADSDEN ALABAMA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 116...WW 117...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WIND
SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN EJECTING
MID-UPPER JET STREAK. RECOVERY FROM THE MORNING MCS HAS BEEN SLOWED
BY CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST...AND LAPSE
RATES ALOFT REMAIN RELATIVELY POOR PER 18Z BMX AND 20Z UAH
SOUNDINGS. ADDITIONALLY...THE WIND PROFILES ARE CHARACTERIZED BY
MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND VERY STRONG SPEED SHEAR ALOFT...IN THE
ZONE OF POOR LAPSE RATES. THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS REGARDING ANY
HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...BUT STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS AND/OR EVOLUTION OF STORMS INTO A CLUSTER LATER. A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.


...THOMPSON

[EF-5bigj]

The atmosphere was insane yesterday you could literally go outside and feel the extreme instability. Today it's humid but more of a rain cooled humid