2008 Severe Weather Thread

[Ed Mahmoud]

The cap at DFW looks weaker than days past, and they are already unstable at 7 am CDT.

[Bunkertor]

Major hail threat and a moderate tornado threat now. Could see hail up to softball size.

Is softballsize hail predictable ? I think only in some extreme cases.

btw. Anyone an idea where SPC sounding page has moved to ?

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/

Great, thank you.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Your unofficial graphical Abilene area forecast:

[KatDaddy]

Can we say OUCH! That is the type of hailstorm I do not want to experience. Thats the type of hailstones that turn slate shingles to powder.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Awesome hook echo in Borden County, tornado warning just issued


Radar

[tornado92]

And I think it'll be the first of many. Today lookes like a very stormy day in the Mid West.

[Bunkertor]

And I think it'll be the first of many. Today lookes like a very stormy day in the Mid West.

I had that feeling, too, when i watched at the Capes and Li´s earlier today.

[Bunkertor]

Awesome hook echo in Borden County, tornado warning just issued


Radar

GRL shows neither TVS nor meso, but hail at 2"

[jasons2k]

Interesting stuff in West TX...

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 231616

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WRN OK/NWRN TX
INTO CENTRAL OK/N-CENTRAL TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE SRN
PLAINS/KS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
LATE MORNING WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING NEWD ACROSS ERN NM AND ANOTHER SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS DURING THE
PERIOD. SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS COMPLEX OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH
PRIMARY FRONT STALLED FROM IND SWWD INTO W-CENTRAL TX...WITH
ADDITIONAL WARM FRONT/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PERSISTING FROM
CENTRAL OK SEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX. SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL ALSO
REMAIN PRONOUNCED TODAY FROM DEVELOPING LOW NEAR THE SD/NE/WY
TRI-STATE REGION SWD INTO WRN TX.

...SRN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
OVERALL SETUP IS QUITE MESSY THIS MORNING AS DEEP LIFTING IS ALREADY
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SWRN TX INTO
CENTRAL KS. WITH MID/UPPER SYSTEM EJECTING NEWD ...CAP WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SUPPORT CONTINUED INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THIS REGION.
WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT PRIMARY MODE OF MULTICELLS...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...FROM
NWRN TX ACROSS WRN OK/CENTRAL KS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. APPEARS
HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE LARGE...WILL BE MOST COMMON
SEVERE EVENT TODAY AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP AND DEEP LIFT/COOLING
ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON INVOF RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL OK TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX WITH THREAT
INCREASING AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD AS LLJ SHIFTS ACROSS THIS
REGION.

SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONGEST AND MORE FAVORABLY SUPPORT LONGER-LIVED
SUPERCELLS ALONG SRN EDGE OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...LIKELY
EXTENDING FROM W-CENTRAL/SWRN TX ENEWD TOWARDS SWRN OK/N-CENTRAL TX
INTO THE EVENING. WITH INCREASING SLY LLJ LATE TODAY AND AXIS OF
STRONGEST WLY MID LEVEL WINDS BECOMING JUXTAPOSED OVER WRN-NWRN
TX...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
MORE ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL SPREADING NEWD DURING THE EVENING
INTO OK AS SHEAR INCREASES.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
AS AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TODAY...SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INFLUX OF NEAR 50F SURFACE DEW
POINTS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO THIS REGION. STRONG IMPULSE NOW
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING
AS IT EJECTS NEWD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONDITIONS SHOULD
BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED...HIGH
BASED-SUPERCELLS...DESPITE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...GIVEN VERY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS SHOULD INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL STONES BEFORE UPDRAFTS
WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ALONG NOSE OF LLJ AFTER DARK.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND...
A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING INTO NEW ENGLAND/QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED
SFC COLD FRONT...DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1000 J/KG FROM
PORTIONS OF VT/NH SWWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL PA BY MID-AFTERNOON.
SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH WEAKENING CINH
SHOULD SUPPORT SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT BETWEEN 18-20Z.
MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR /30 KTS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER/ WILL
SUPPORT SOME WEAK UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH MAINLY MULTICELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS. THEREFORE...A LOW PROBABILITY AREA WILL BE ISSUED
TO COVER ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN/DIMINISH BY 03Z AS THEY MOVE INTO SRN
NEW ENGLAND/ERN PA AND SERN NY.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 04/23/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1645Z (12:45PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Bunkertor]

[Weatherfreak14]

This is a beautiful Image of a Possible Tornado In Borden Co. Tx.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Awesome hook echo in Borden County, tornado warning just issued


Radar

GRL shows neither TVS nor meso, but hail at 2"

I think you checked about an hour late...

[Bunkertor]

Awesome hook echo in Borden County, tornado warning just issued


Radar

GRL shows neither TVS nor meso, but hail at 2"

I think you checked about an hour late...

Hm, i don´t know. That was just in the moment the warning was in effect. I was astonished, true.

[cincyforecast]

Hey 'all!

I was watching that cell earlier...it looked good.

[Bunkertor]

MDT now for day two

[Bunkertor]

CAPE for north Texas now at about 1000. Does anyone know the CAPE values for the early afternoon hours when a tornado outbreak is to come ?

Erratum: 1000 is noth the right number. It seems the launched new soundings while still in calculating

[Bunkertor]

[Bunkertor]

Tornado warning maybe to be issued shortly

[Ed Mahmoud]

The SPC page draws in the sounding data as the balloon floats up, so the numbers calculated for CAPE will increase.


3000 J/Kg basically in Midland, with almost no remaining cap, 65 knots of deep layer shear, and helicity around 200 J/Kg.


The fireworks should start at any moment.


Not a lot of trees around Midland, so we should get some good storm chaser videos and photos. And other than a few larger towns like Midland and Sweetwater and Abilene and San Angelo, not a lot of population, so with luck nobody gets hurt.