Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

what happened to the isalnds? I can't see them!
are they all underwater?
this weather is crazy!
Be safe everyone!

[cycloneye]

Good news and bad news for PR and VI. The good news is that so far today,there have not been flood warnings that have been issued in Puerto Rico / Virgin Islands. The bad news is that moisture will return later today as the diurnal effects combined with the very moist enviroment will trigger more rains.

Wow, be careful in the islands downstream.

[abajan]

Good news and bad news for PR and VI. The good news is that so far today,there have not been flood warnings that have been issued in Puerto Rico / Virgin Islands. The bad news is that moisture will return later today as the diurnal effects combined with the very moist enviroment will trigger more rains.

Wow, be careful in the islands downstream.

Heck, we’re upstream and even we have to be careful, judging from recent satellite imagery and the clouds gathering outside!
Stay safe, Luis and all you folk to our Northwest, and keep us informed as usual.

[bvigal]

Abajan & Gusty, looking at MFrance radar, it's been raining all over the W'wd and most of L'wds since early this morning! What's that about?

Karen, sorry to hear about the damage in Culebra, especially having no phones or INTERNET!

Luis, I'm sure you'd agree, we don't want any more rain!!!!

[bvigal]

Eastern Carib radar - 6am


and now

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST WED JUL 21 2010

PRC147-211945-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0294.100721T1855Z-100721T1945Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VIEQUES PR-
255 PM AST WED JUL 21 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY...

IN PUERTO RICO
VIEQUES

* UNTIL 345 PM AST

* AT 249 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE ADVISORY AREA. RUNOFF FROM
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IN COMBINATION WITH SATURATED
SOILS...WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS
WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AT LEAST
UNTIL 345 PM AST.

ALSO EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS
THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST WED JUL 21 2010

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE LOCAL AREA OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS.

DISCUSSION...LOCAL EFFECTS COMBINED WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERATED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. SATELLITES IMAGES ARE SHOWING A BULK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...THIS AREA OF MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT A
SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO OCCUR ON THURSDAY.

EVEN LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS COULD INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
FLOODING TO OCCUR AS SOILS CONTINUE TO BE EXTREMELY SATURATED...
THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLASH FLOOD TO OCCUR WILL REMAIN
HIGH.

A TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO RETROGRESS TOWARDS
THE BAHAMAS AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY AFFECTING ALL TAF
SITES TO SOME DEGREE...RANGING FROM VCSH TO SHRA OR TSRA. FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. SOME GUSTY WINDS RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 MPH MOVING
THROUGH AHEAD OF SHOWERS.

MARINE...SEAS STARTED SUBSIDE THIS MORNING BUT ANOTHER WIND
SURGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. TONIGHT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THEREFORE MARINERS SHOULD
MONITOR NWS PRODUCTS AND MARINE BULLETINS.

[bvigal]

It's raining cats and dogs again!

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
PRC001-007-009-019-021-025-031-033-035-039-041-043-045-047-051-059-
061-063-073-075-087-091-101-105-107-111-113-123-127-133-135-137-139-
141-143-145-149-212045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
340 PM AST WED JUL 21 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM AST FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING
MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CIALES...CAGUAS...CIDRA...COAMO...CAYEY...COROZAL...
COMERIO...AIBONITO...AGUAS BUENAS...BARRANQUITAS...JAYUYA...
GURABO...ADJUNTAS...OROCOVIS...NARANJITO...MOROVIS...TOA ALTA...
UTUADO...VILLALBA...TRUJILLO ALTO...VEGA ALTA...DORADO...
GUAYANILLA...GUAYNABO...CAROLINA...JUANA DIAZ...MANATI...
PONCE...CATANO...VEGA BAJA...SAN JUAN...SALINAS...SANTA
ISABEL...PENUELAS...LOIZA AND TOA BAJA

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
AGUAS BUENAS...CAPITANEJO...AGUILITA...AIBONITO...BAIROA...
BARAHONA...BARRANQUITAS...BAYAMON...BRENAS...CAMPANILLA...
CANDELARIA...CANDELARIA ARENAS...CAROLINA...CATANO...CAYEY...
CIALES...CIDRA...COAMO...COMERIO...COROZAL...COTO LAUREL...COTO
NORTE...DORADO...FRANQUEZ...GALATEO...GUAYABAL...GUAYNABO...H.
RIVERA COLON...INGENIO...JAUCA...JAYUYA...JUANA DIAZ...LA
LUISA...SALINAS...LAS OLLAS...LEVITTOWN...LOIZA...LOS LLANOS...
LUIS LLORENS TORRES...MANATI...MIRANDA...MONSERRATE...MOROVIS...
NARANJITO...PAJAROS...PENUELAS...PONCE...POTALA PASTILLO...TOA
ALTA...SAN JOSE...RIO LAJAS...SABANA SECA...SAN ANTONIO...SAN
JUAN...SANTA ISABEL...TALLABOA ALTA...TOA BAJA...TRUJILLO
ALTO...VAZQUEZ...VEGA ALTA...VEGA BAJA AND VILLALBA

AT 336 PM AST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOIZA...OR ABOUT 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF NAGUABO...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 35 MPH. THIS LINE WAS
ACCELERATING TOWARD SAN JUAN AND WILL CROSS A LINE BETWEEN SALINAS
AND LOIZA AT ABOUT 3:45 PM BRINGING GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH...HEAVY
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING TO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF PUERTO RICO FROM THE
NORTHERN TO SOUTHERN COASTS.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
550 PM AST WED JUL 21 2010

VIC020-030-220045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0295.100721T2150Z-100722T0045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAINT JOHN VI-SAINT THOMAS VI-
550 PM AST WED JUL 21 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS...

IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT JOHN AND SAINT THOMAS

* UNTIL 845 PM AST

* AT 544 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5 INCHES SINCE 400 PM
AST. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
CHARLOTTE AMALIE.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND GUTS...
AND LOW SPOTS IN HIGHWAYS. ADDITIONALLY...ROADS AND LAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO
FLOODING. ALSO...MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
750 PM AST WED JUL 21 2010

PRZ001>004-012-013-VIZ001-002-221200-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-100722T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-CULEBRA-
VIEQUES-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE...CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...
CRUZ BAY...CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...
GROVE PLACE
750 PM AST WED JUL 21 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...EASTERN INTERIOR...
NORTHEAST...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...SOUTHEAST AND VIEQUES. IN
VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
ISLANDS.

* THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

* HEAVY SHOWERS IN A LONG TRAIL OF MOISTURE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES TONIGHT AND
MOST OF TOMORROW. THIS WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OF
RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS AND GUTS HIGH. MANY AREAS HAVE ALREADY
HAD MORE THAN FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL THIS WEEK AND THE THREAT
OF MUDSLIDES IS CONSIDERABLE IN STEEP TERRAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...
AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE HEAVY
RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR
YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

&&

$$

SNELL

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
932 PM AST WED JUL 21 2010

.UPDATE...HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONTINUING
FROM SOUTH SOUTH EAST OF SAINT CROIX ACROSS SAINT CROIX TO
CULEBRA AND SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN. OTHER SHOWERS ALSO MOVED
ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO FROM YABUCOA TO CABO ROJO. THE
SHOWERS OVER SAINT CROIX ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PUERTO RICO LATER
TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE SHOWERS AND MOISTURE STILL
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS A
HEAVY SHIELD OF MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CARIBBEAN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WERE ABOVE 2
INCHES. THE SOUNDING AT SAN JUAN CAME OUT AT 2.38 INCHES. THE
SOUNDING WAS MOIST UP TO 300MB. MODELS DO NOT AGREE WELL WITH
EACH OTHER. ECMWF SHOWS MOISTURE TRAIL TO SOUTHEAST AND KEEPS IT
OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN BRINGS
MUCH BETTER MOISTURE OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS FRIDAY MORNING. THE NAM BRINGS THE MOISTURE TOO FAR WEST
AT 00Z IN THE CARIBBEAN AND BRINGS THE BEST MOISTURE OVER MOST OF
PUERTO RICO AT 22/18Z. IT IS VERY DRY FROM 23/15Z TO 24/09Z. THE
GFS SHOWS THE MOISTURE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BUT SHOWS THE
MOISTURE AT 22/00Z OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO WITH WEAKER MOISTURE
AT 22/18Z. THE DRIEST AIR IN THIS SOLUTION ARRIVES 23/12Z AND
CONTINUES JUST PAST 24/06Z WITH A TROUGH PASSING 24/12Z BRINGING
SHOWERS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AT THIS POINT AM GOING WITH A PERSISTENT WINNER IN
THIS SCENARIO...THE ECMWF. IT SEEMS TO REFLECT THE DRYING BETWEEN 50 AND
60 WEST NORTH OF 14 NORTH AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
TROUGH OVER THE AREA. IT HAS ALSO DONE WELL IN FORECASTING THE
LONGEVITY OF THE WAVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. AND SINCE WE WILL KEEP
EXCELLENT CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE AREA AND AT LEAST MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER
EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS UNTIL 4 PM
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
CONTINUING OVER NIGHT IN THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND
INTENSIFYING DURING THE MORNING HOURS OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO.
WILL KEEP THE DRIER FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH EXCEPTION OF EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT. BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRIDAY TO SEE IF MOISTURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AS DEPICTED IN THE ECMWF...WHICH COULD MEAN
BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL THAN CURRENTLY RUNNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED ON THE EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO EVEN
IF DRYING OCCURS.

BOTH NAM AND GFS BRING STRONGER WINDS IN LATE ON THURSDAY. THE
ECMWF IS EARLIER AND 30 KNOTS WINDS ARE OVER SW PUERTO RICO ONLY
BUT WIND SURGE IS STILL EVIDENT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. GRIDS REFLECT AN
INCREASE IN POPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE NOT BEEN
EXTRAORDINARY...MAINLY DUE TO THE FAIRLY RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE
CELLS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE BEEN TRACKED IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS.
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN SOME PLACES AT LEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING LATER INTO THE NIGHT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND EXTEND IT TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ONE IMPORTANT NOTE...EARLIER FORECAST OF 80 FOR SAN JUAN SEEMED
WAY TOO COOL WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND SOME BREAKS IN THE SHOWERS.
HAVE RETURNED TO 87 DEGREES AS INDICATED BY MODEL OUTPUT
STATISTICS. TODAY`S HIGH WAS 89.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA IN AREA TO CONTINUE ALL TAF LOCATIONS TONIGHT/THU ESPECIALLY
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN A CLUSTER MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PR
MOUNTAINS AND ALSO SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX...ALL MOVING NORTHWEST
ABOUT 12 KNOTS. AS DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES MVFR CIGS AND
ISOLD IFR POSSIBLE BUT ONLY IN SHRA AND OBSCURATIONS ON MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MARINE...WAVES AT BUOY 41043 HAVE BEEN HOLDING STEADY NEAR 7.5
FEET AND WILL STAY WITH PLAN TO LOWER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR
NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AT MIDNIGHT. LOOKING AT OTHER BUOYS
SHOWED A VERY RAPID INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHT TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
BUOY 42060 JUMPING FROM BELOW 5 FEET TO 6.6 FEET JUST BEFORE
22/01Z. THIS MAY BE INDICATIVE OF VERY STRONG LOCAL THUNDERSTORMS
THAT OCCURRED NEAR BUT NOT AT THE BUOY.

&&

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1043 PM AST WED JUL 21 2010

PRC007-009-015-019-021-025-029-031-033-035-041-045-047-051-057-061-
063-077-085-087-105-109-119-123-127-129-135-137-139-143-151-220530-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0296.100722T0243Z-100722T0530Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-CAGUAS PR-CIDRA PR-CAYEY PR-COROZAL PR-COMERIO PR-
AIBONITO PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-BARRANQUITAS PR-JUNCOS PR-GURABO
PR-NARANJITO PR-TOA ALTA PR-SAN LORENZO PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-VEGA
ALTA PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-DORADO PR-ARROYO PR-PATILLAS PR-GUAYNABO
PR-CANOVANAS PR-GUAYAMA PR-CAROLINA PR-CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-SALINAS
PR-LOIZA PR-RIO GRANDE PR-YABUCOA PR-TOA BAJA PR-
1043 PM AST WED JUL 21 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CAGUAS...CIDRA...CAYEY...COROZAL...COMERIO...
AIBONITO...AGUAS BUENAS...BARRANQUITAS...JUNCOS...GURABO...
NARANJITO...TOA ALTA...SAN LORENZO...TRUJILLO ALTO...VEGA
ALTA...LAS PIEDRAS...DORADO...ARROYO...PATILLAS...GUAYNABO...
CANOVANAS...GUAYAMA...CAROLINA...CATANO...SAN JUAN...SALINAS...
LOIZA...RIO GRANDE...YABUCOA AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 130 AM AST

* AT 1037 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.

HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO CAUSE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF OVER THE AREA. SOILS HAVE BEEN SATURATED FROM EARLIER RAIN
AND SMALL STREAMS AND CITY STREETS WILL EXPERIENCE HIGH WATER AT
TIMES TONIGHT. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. More of the same today,rain. But it looks like drier conditions for the weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
435 AM AST THU JUL 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP MOIST SSE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE WEST TONIGHT AS TUTT LOW EAST OF 60W MOVES INTO THE LOCAL
AREA OVR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE INCREASE EARLY THIS
MORNING PER RECENT INCREASE IN CG LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND COOLING
CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL RATES
APPRAOCHING AN INCH PER HOUR WITH CONVECTION OVR ERN PR EARLY THIS
MORNING. MODELS MAINTAIN DEEP MOIST SSE FLOW FOR ANOTHER 12-18 HRS
BEFORE NOTABLE DRYING TAKES PLACE LATE TONIGHT AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ON THE WRN SIDE OF TUTT LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 17N 56W.
LOWERED POPS ON FRI TO ISOLD AS H85-H7 MOISTURE DROPS PER LOW K
INDICES. BY SAT...TUTT LOW MOVES NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND ALLOWS
FOR BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL PER SHARP INCREASE IN K INDICES.
GOOD HELICITY VALUES...NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES AND DRY MID-LVLS
SUGGEST RISK OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION AS WE HAVE SEEN MANY
TIMES THIS SUMMER.

MID-UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS FOR SUN-MON WITH A SHARP DROP IN
AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECTED. SFC WINDS ALSO TO INCREASE AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS AZORES-BERMUDA BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THIS TO
GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW FOR MUCH NEEDED
DRYING. ANOTHER TUTT LOW TO MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN TUE.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MJO CONDITIONS ARE FCST TO BECOME HIGHLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ACROSS THE TROP ATLC AS MJO CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE FROM
THE INDIAN OCEAN TO THE MARITIME CONTINENT. GIVEN STRONG CONSENSUS BETWEEN
STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS OF STRONG POSITIVE VELOCITY
POTENTIAL ANOMALIES ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN IT APPEARS WE ARE IN FOR
A RATHER QUIET PERIOD OF LOW RAINFALL AND TC ACTIVITY BEGINNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUE TO EXPECT VCSH TO SHRA OR TSRA ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
TKPK...TNCM...TIST...TISX...TJPS AND TJSJ THROUGH 23/00Z. TEMPO MVFR
CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ IN SHRA
OR TSRA AFT 22/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS RUNNING UP TO 6 FT BOTH OFFSHORE ATLC AND CARIB
WATERS AND FCST TO COME DOWN TO 4-5 FT NEXT 12 HRS. SEAS COME UP
AGAIN BY MON NIGHT JUL 27 CARIB WATERS WITH 6 FT LIKELY AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 86 77 / 50 30 20 60
STT 86 78 87 77 / 70 40 20 50

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
832 AM AST THU JUL 22 2010

PRC029-037-053-087-089-103-119-221430-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0297.100722T1232Z-100722T1430Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LUQUILLO PR-NAGUABO PR-CEIBA PR-CANOVANAS PR-FAJARDO PR-LOIZA PR-
RIO GRANDE PR-
832 AM AST THU JUL 22 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
LUQUILLO...NAGUABO...CEIBA...CANOVANAS...FAJARDO...LOIZA AND RIO
GRANDE

* UNTIL 1030 AM AST

* AT 827 AM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AND AREA OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO THE ADVISORY AREA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. COMBINED WITH THE ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS...THIS HEAVY RAIN COULD TRIGGER ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP
TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[FireBird]

The tail of 97L gave us quite a grey day yesterday with some heavy showers in between. haven't heard any reports of damaging floods, but I'm keeping my eye on the convection heading my way. I was out of country for a bit during which some really powerful storms hit. a lightning bolt struck a major power plant last week, and power was fully or partially out for about 3 days in large sections of the country. my fridge seems to be on the bum as a result.
Also, just curious - a lot of turtles have suddenly become visible over the past few weeks with the rains. We've been rescuing those we can from off the streets, and we just got another one on Tuesday. She was starved and in bad shape. Has this been happening in any of the other islands?

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
PRC013-027-054-065-141-221915-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
224 PM AST THU JUL 22 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 315 PM AST FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING
MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
FLORIDA...UTUADO...CAMUY...HATILLO AND ARECIBO

AT 217 PM AST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ARECIBO...MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 15 MPH. HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

[Gustywind]

Nice showers are falling here. Lightnings and thunder are present. Looks like a line of showers and tstorms is affected us. Convection has certainly refired this afternoon with all the moisture behind TD3.