Texas Fall-2016

[Ntxw]

Rutgers snow lab updated and 2016 is ranked 3rd all time (as far as records are kept) in terms of snow extent. Behind 1976 (1st) and 2014 (2nd).

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_rankings.php?ui_set=1

And as srain alluded, the MJO has all of a sudden burst to life. As well as Ralph' Weather calling it El Nino-esque. Big cutoff lows in the southwest, warm northern plains, and the recent -SOI, and the very high snow extent is not very la nina-esque at all

[Tireman4]

Rutgers snow lab updated and 2016 is ranked 3rd all time (as far as records are kept) in terms of snow extent. Behind 1976 (1st) and 2014 (2nd).

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_rankings.php?ui_set=1

And as srain alluded, the MJO has all of a sudden burst to life. As well as Ralph' Weather calling it El Nino-esque. Big cutoff lows in the southwest, warm northern plains, and the recent -SOI, and the very high snow extent is not very la nina-esque at all

Here we go....3....2....1....

[Ralph's Weather]

Rutgers snow lab updated and 2016 is ranked 3rd all time (as far as records are kept) in terms of snow extent. Behind 1976 (1st) and 2014 (2nd).

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_rankings.php?ui_set=1

And as srain alluded, the MJO has all of a sudden burst to life. As well as Ralph' Weather calling it El Nino-esque. Big cutoff lows in the southwest, warm northern plains, and the recent -SOI, and the very high snow extent is not very la nina-esque at all

This should set up Canada to go into the icebox with the huge snow cover whenever we can get the EPO to tank, if ever.

[Brent]

Regardless of the LR GFS, it feels amazing today... and what was the strange wet stuff from the sky this morning?

No 80s on the GFS, so even if it's not cold anytime soon, it certainly will be an improvement over the last week or so.

[JDawg512]

A pretty intense line of storms is about to move into Austin. Not severe or anything but I am noticing the line bowing out a bit so could see some gusty winds.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Strangest weather I've ever seen. I work around wildlife every day and today saw a field full of blooming wildflowers and Indian paintbrushes. Also, have noticed that the robins that have migrated have come back. It's honestly like spring all over again.

[Tireman4]

HGX AFD from Lake Charles....humm

XUS64 KHGX 031720
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1220 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
18z taf issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings persisting at CLL/IAH/SGR/CXO/UTS expected to
gradually lift and sct by 20z. Otherwise, VFR expected after 20z
this afternoon. Cool frontal passage expected overnight into
Friday morning. Ahead of that, gradient will collapse, with
visibilities and ceilings gradually lowering after 06z across most
locations. Frontal passage will gradually shift winds to N to NNE
direction after daybreak, but expected to remain below 10 knots,
with lingering MVFR ceilings expected at CLL/CXO, VFR elsewhere.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA/

DISCUSSION...
Weather map shows cool front across TX from the Rio Grand Valley
northeast thru the Arklatex. Radar this morning showing minimal
convection, remaining north of College Station to Crockett.
Otherwise, persistent morning fog is finally lifting to low cloud
layer mainly north of the Houston metro area to College Station.
Updates included lowering pops to 30% across northern and western
zones, and leaving 20% elsewhere, for latest HRRR guidance still
indicates isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.

[weatherdude1108]

A pretty intense line of storms is about to move into Austin. Not severe or anything but I am noticing the line bowing out a bit so could see some gusty winds.

I saw that bowing also. But nothing severe showing up so far. The SPC isn't concerned. General thunderstorms shows on their graphic here, not even marginal. There was a small stream flood advisory for Blanco County. Looking forward to rain! I'm still at work, so hopefully it'll move through before the rush hour.

[Tejas89]

Great article from TWC on the expansive Siberian snow cover.

Pics of some unworldly cold temps at the bottom.

https://weather.com/news/weather/news/snow-siberia-russia-united-states-cold

[JDawg512]

A pretty intense line of storms is about to move into Austin. Not severe or anything but I am noticing the line bowing out a bit so could see some gusty winds.

I saw that bowing also. But nothing severe showing up so far. The SPC isn't concerned. General thunderstorms shows on their graphic here, not even marginal. There was a small stream flood advisory for Blanco County. Looking forward to rain! I'm still at work, so hopefully it'll move through before the rush hour.

The lighting has dissipated and what's left is with a cell that moved into Hays. Did get some 25-30 mph gusts which is what I was expecting going by the velocity radar profile. Getting a good downpour now.

[gpsnowman]

Great article from TWC on the expansive Siberian snow cover.

Pics of some unworldly cold temps at the bottom.

https://weather.com/news/weather/news/snow-siberia-russia-united-states-cold

That is a good article, thanks for posting tejas89. We shall see if the Siberian snowpack can deliver the goods. Unfortunately I took a look at TWC November temp and precip forecast and it looks awful for a large portion of the US. At home and work I have noticed some fall foliage on many trees. Even some large oak leaves are showing some yellow. It's weird not having fall chill associated with the changing of leaves.

[weatherdude1108]

A pretty intense line of storms is about to move into Austin. Not severe or anything but I am noticing the line bowing out a bit so could see some gusty winds.

I saw that bowing also. But nothing severe showing up so far. The SPC isn't concerned. General thunderstorms shows on their graphic here, not even marginal. There was a small stream flood advisory for Blanco County. Looking forward to rain! I'm still at work, so hopefully it'll move through before the rush hour.

The lighting has dissipated and what's left is with a cell that moved into Hays. Did get some 25-30 mph gusts which is what I was expecting going by the velocity radar profile. Getting a good downpour now.

Been pouring here at work for the last 30 minutes at least. No lightning. Got breezy for a bit. It is starting to let up. Cars are stacked up on the roads out here. Travis County under a Flood Advisory until 6pm. Going to be a not-so-fun drive home, but LOVE the rain!

[weatherdude1108]

Great article from TWC on the expansive Siberian snow cover.

Pics of some unworldly cold temps at the bottom.

https://weather.com/news/weather/news/snow-siberia-russia-united-states-cold

That is a good article, thanks for posting tejas89. We shall see if the Siberian snowpack can deliver the goods. Unfortunately I took a look at TWC November temp and precip forecast and it looks awful for a large portion of the US. At home and work I have noticed some fall foliage on many trees. Even some large oak leaves are showing some yellow. It's weird not having fall chill associated with the changing of leaves.

Probably because we have had a dry spell(?), shorter daylight hours, longer dark hours. That could cause some trees to shed. Trees are shedding here too.

[weatherdude1108]

Very nice.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 032039
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
339 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms continue to
develop along and north of a weak cold front that extends from
northern Val Verde County to north of Kerrville to just south of
Austin. The strongest cluster of storms that produced widespread
1-3 inch rainfall totals with a few isolated higher totals over
Gillespie, Llano, Blanco, and Burnet Counties is now moving into
Travis and Hays Counties. Very localized rain rates of up to 3
inches per hour and occasional cloud to ground lightning strikes
will be possible with these storms as they move to the east-
northeast. Outflow boundaries from these storms will propagate
south and east to help generate additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms further south while also helping reinforce and
propagate the front. Thus, shower and thunderstorm activity should
increase over the southern half of the CWA through the evening
hours while decreasing over the northern half over next 3-6 hours.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to dissipate over most of
South Central Texas by Midnight, but rain chances will continue
well into the overnight hours for the Rio Grande Plains. This area
will continue to have weak to moderate isentropic ascent with a
SE 10-20 knot LLJ well into the overnight hours as the front
moves south-southwest of the region. Although the faster
progression of the front than previously thought should help keep
the heavy rainfall threat over the Mexican state of Coahuila where
weak E-NE upslope flow will occur, locally heavy rainfall over the
Rio Grande Plains is still possible. However, a midlevel
shortwave rotating around the cutoff low located over southern
Arizona and the Gulf of California is not expected, so rainfall
amounts should remain very manageable in the 1-2 inch range with
isolated spots up to 3 inches over the Rio Grande Plains.

Temperatures tomorrow will only warm up into the mid 70s to lower
80s over the region tomorrow with weak northerly winds behind the
front. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over
the eastern half of the region as the front dissipates, with more
scattered coverage possible over the western half toward the Rio
Grande Plains where better dynamic forcing will be in place. Rain
chances will decrease further across the entire area by Friday
evening to allow for a break in the rain chances.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
After a relatively dry Friday night through Saturday, southerly
flow will begin to return by Saturday evening as the cutoff low
currently over southern Arizona begins to lift and eject to the
northeast as a shortwave trough. This will allow rain chances to
increase from west to east Sunday morning into Monday afternoon.
The best rain chances currently look to occur late Sunday
afternoon into the overnight hours on Monday, but there are still
significant differences in timing between various model suites.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into Monday
night and Tuesday as a weak front or surface trough passes through
the region before rain chances gradually fall Tuesday night
through Thursday. Temperatures will remain near or slightly above
normal through the forecast period with rainfall totals through
the middle of next week of averaging between 1-3 inches.

[dhweather]

Rutgers snow lab updated and 2016 is ranked 3rd all time (as far as records are kept) in terms of snow extent. Behind 1976 (1st) and 2014 (2nd).

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_rankings.php?ui_set=1

And as srain alluded, the MJO has all of a sudden burst to life. As well as Ralph' Weather calling it El Nino-esque. Big cutoff lows in the southwest, warm northern plains, and the recent -SOI, and the very high snow extent is not very la nina-esque at all

Here we go....3....2....1....

Cat 5 in the Gulf?




Racked up .54" of rain this morning, very welcomed. Maybe it will happen again soon.

[Brent]

Great article from TWC on the expansive Siberian snow cover.

Pics of some unworldly cold temps at the bottom.

https://weather.com/news/weather/news/snow-siberia-russia-united-states-cold

That is a good article, thanks for posting tejas89. We shall see if the Siberian snowpack can deliver the goods. Unfortunately I took a look at TWC November temp and precip forecast and it looks awful for a large portion of the US. At home and work I have noticed some fall foliage on many trees. Even some large oak leaves are showing some yellow. It's weird not having fall chill associated with the changing of leaves.

Probably because we have had a dry spell(?), shorter daylight hours, longer dark hours. That could cause some trees to shed. Trees are shedding here too.

yeah I think the trees just know from the shorter daylight...

[weatherdude1108]

Racked up 1.49 inches this afternoon! Looks like it came down hard, based on the debris marks on garage door. Been a LONG time since I have seen that kind of rain. Took me over an hour to get home. Usually takes me 30 minutes at most. Rain had stopped by that time too.

[Brent]

Next week looks very Seattle-like... maybe not heavy rain per the GFS, but daily chances for light rain/drizzle and overall cloudy at least. Still even with no real cold air will be a lot different than most of October was.

The Euro is a lot wetter... and would be heavy rain at times.

[weatherdude1108]

That's a persistent forecast, in a good way!

[Ntxw]

Seattle like is right. The upper pattern is very reminiscent of El Nino with the MJO and everything. Not much sunshine this coming week, maybe a little mid week but that will quickly be overtaken. Perhaps a deep upper low/trough will swing through next weekend keeping highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s. Much more Novemberish.