Ntxw wrote:weatherdude1108 wrote:I have a general question related to the current weather pattern.
What exactly is causing this intense, relentless heat that we have been experiencing, that just doesn't seem to end, as compared to normal heat?
This is an extremely loaded question! Some anecdotal.
This is not something that just suddenly popped up. The seeds were planted many months ago, arguably back to last Fall.
General rule is La Nina favors warmth and drought in Texas, but not always there are good and bad La Ninas. 2020 and 2021 were 'good' La Ninas. Despite them being so they had tendencies of weather patterns that gave us rain, remnants of a Pacific-Like Nino patterns. MJO at times were in Nino phases despite the burgeoning Ninas. From September to October of 2021 the Pacific changed. -PDO deepened and a couple of weeks of dry-ness became months of dry-ness through Spring. SOI became more and more negative. Then you had December, thanks to the Pacific pattern.
Forward to Spring, the rains were going to come because it's Spring! However it too was lackluster. Normal rains came as the PVa anomalies were shifting north with the natural seasonal warmth and it moved further north as the time went. During the season we lacked mid and upper moisture from the Pacific, cloud cover and moisture above can help cool the lower layer of the atmosphere but this wasn't occurring despite it raining in X-county over NTX or Oklahoma etc. Unabated warming above us set the stage for the ground drought and atmospheric drought to couple.
But in the background the PDO nose-dived and the SOI went with it to a historic stretch of negatives. What they were telling us that the Nina and the rest of the Pacific was going to couple, both tropics and mid latitudes. You can fight it with one or the other but losing both was a double whammy. And here we are in the dry season. That lack of Pacific help magnified. The heat-drought has already coupled with nothing to disturb it so it's a runaway feedback loop. When the ridge is weak the drought-fed warmth keeps the temps elevated, nothing is streaming from the Pacific to disturb it. When it flexes it takes that elevated heat and takes it a step further. It will stay that way until something knocks it off, and the Pacific is continuing to tell us with the SOI not coming from that direction.
Sorry for the lengthy question.
I appreciate your feedback. You say just the facts, and leave the emotion created by this this pattern to the side. I'm guilty of getting frustrated and angry when I look at the forecast maps. But I know I don't have control over it. But still frustrating.lol. But I get it. You're like a breath of fresh air. That said, we have a 30% chance of showers and storms after 1pm tomorrow.
