Texas Summer 2025

[wxman22]

Its currently 100 here and we had our first 100 of the season last Friday. September will be here before you know it. LOL

[TomballEd]

No model support for the inverted trough moving through the Gulf this week but GFS brings near 2.5 inch PW into SETX. Model sees upper 90s IMBY dropping mid day but dropping into the upper 80s and low 90s.

I'll take it. Local (KHOU-TV) forecast has Houston's first 100F day of the year Wednesday (NWS- just under), nipping heat waves in the bud is a good thing. For North Texas, ie, Kamay and Bedford, no relief from the heat but GFS shows dewpoints in the 50s (18Z Euro a smidge more humid) up that wat, it could be worse. Its a dry heat.

[Brent]

Our hottest is 96 so far and we're losing 10 minutes of daylight a week now

I'll take that any year. I'm sure it's gonna suck for a bit but to make it this far is impressive

8th latest first high above 95 on record here

I dunno how accurate AccuWeather is but it doesn't have anything extreme really showing up in August so far. We flirt with 100 a few days early on but after the first 10 days temps come down a bit even

[TomballEd]

Rainfall amounts for SETX with the inverted trough (Ghost of 93L) down on 6Z GFS and Euro. PW is still higher than normal but a little off from 0Z runs. Less rain but still enough to knock down highs approaching 100F near Conroe back to 90 or even a little cooler. Where temps stay hot at least the dewpoints stay low.

[Stratton23]

Their is support for a decent rare early august cool down showing up on all the models, fingers crossed for that , also looks like the pattern is starting to trend towards slightly more unsettled according to NOAA, hopefully we can break this bug heat wave pattern

[Brent]

Their is support for a decent rare early august cool down showing up on all the models, fingers crossed for that , also looks like the pattern is starting to trend towards slightly more unsettled according to NOAA, hopefully we can break this bug heat wave pattern

Definitely a lot of people up here talking about it

I know it's hot now but it's been quite a summer to say the least

[snownado]

While it could still happen, 100*F potential for DFW is looking more marginal today/tomorrow than it did a few days ago (not surprising, of course).

At this point though, I'm wondering if we can go for all-out futility.

[TomballEd]

6Z models and 12Z NAM (drier than the globals) average out half an inch of rain for SETX with the inverted trough coming through Friday and Saturday.

Heat wave didn't break, it never started, after 100F Tuesday it only made it to 99F yesterday. 92F forecast Saturday.

[jaguars_22]

Texas could be a tropical magnet according to the GFS. We have the "lemon" in the gulf currently, round 5 of another disturbance enters the gulf next week, then a wave coming in from the carribean...

[txtwister78]

Hottest day today in store for SC TX and SA since May which sounds crazy, however as mentioned above with the disturbance moving into the area late Friday and Saturday clouds and some scattered precip around that should keep temps below 100 for the weekend down here.

Next week looks looks similar to this week with perhaps another disturbance in gulf but I think we stay below 100 for the most part. Regardless when you factor in humidity it's going to feel hot because well it's Texas and late July after all.

Despite disturbances, no real big precip signals showing up via the models but as mentioned a few days ago, the MJO may be headed into a more active phase in the tropics as we move into first week of August so let's see how that plays out.

[Stratton23]

I see a decent stretch of wetter weather/ cooler conditions for most of the state heading into early August, that should put an end to the big heat wave for a while, this has been a pretty good summer in regards to avoiding long term drought problems

[TomballEd]

I see a decent stretch of wetter weather/ cooler conditions for most of the state heading into early August, that should put an end to the big heat wave for a while, this has been a pretty good summer in regards to avoiding long term drought problems

This summer has been kind to my AC. And our electric bill.

[txtwister78]

I see a decent stretch of wetter weather/ cooler conditions for most of the state heading into early August, that should put an end to the big heat wave for a while, this has been a pretty good summer in regards to avoiding long term drought problems

If we get it, it's likely coming from the tropics but outside of the disturbance in the gulf, I think it's more of a wait and see.

The pattern in the gulf does seem to be on repeat mode going into next week so perhaps that will keep us a bit more active while keeping temps in check but I still think jury is still out on how much precip and how much of the state is ultimately impacted to predict with aby degree of certainty.

San Antonio could use some more rain though so hope you're right. We just dont need anymore "rain bombs" going off.

[snownado]

Unless some weird intra-hour spike happens, DFW will likely fall short of the century mark today. It is only 97*F as of the 4pm observation.

[cstrunk]

Looks like things should start to dry out for most of Texas (but certainly not all).

I see the first 100F day has been added to my local forecast for next Wednesday.

We do look to be finally on somewhat of a drying trend now but it took longer than expected, and of course that could change. In the short-term we have local 30% chances of rain this Friday and Saturday related to the tropical disturbance headed towards Louisiana, but it doesn't seem like it will have any great impacts on Texas at this time. The slight rain chances are still welcome up here.

The 100F forecast by NWS from last Thursday for today certainly did not pan out. 92F looks like the high reached for today. The rain we received last week and over the weekend played a big part in that. Temperatures look to stay in the low-mid 90's through early next week, before they again start creeping back up into the upper 90s and the forecast for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday is 97F, 98F, and 99F.

We still have a long ways to go to get through August and September, so plenty of summer remains for us to get our share of hot and dry spells. Indeed, the current CPC long range outlooks show above normal temperatures over the next 1-3 months and generally at or below average rainfall for Texas.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday temps this week were 95F, 94F, and 99F. Last week's forecast was pretty close, if not a tad high on average. Still haven't hit 100F.

Slight rain chances today, tomorrow, and Sunday will help keep temps in check through the weekend, before heating back up next week. Rainfall amounts will probably play into whether or not we see our first 100F days next week. NWS forecast for Mon-Thurs is 98F, 100F, 101F, and 99F.

[Stratton23]

I mean i really dont see sustained big heat or drier pattern beyond this weekend- middle part of next week, a major pattern change looks to bring cooler and wetter weather, ive been watching the trends in models and ensembles , in addition, in august the door to texas looks to be open to tropiccal mischief with the ridge likely staying over the western to pacific NW US

[txtwister78]

I mean i really dont see sustained big heat or drier pattern beyond this weekend- middle part of next week, a major pattern change looks to bring cooler and wetter weather, ive been watching the trends in models and ensembles , in addition, in august the door to texas looks to be open to tropiccal mischief with the ridge likely staying over the western to pacific NW US

Only thing I would say here my friend is given where we're at climatologicaly speaking, I think it's still going to be hot by Texas standards but to your point it certainly could be and has been hotter as we've seen from previous years/summers so that's no doubt a positive but as I mentioned, I think upper 90's to near 100 with heat index values above that will still register for most as your typical Texas summer heat as opposed to anything resembling a big cool down overall. Just my .02

In terms of precip the models haven't really been all that bullish quite honestly regarding rainfall that would amount to anything significant that I can see signaling a real pattern change across the state within the next ten days. Still looks pretty dry outside of perhaps portions of SE TX coastal areas

In regard to the tropics, I've been tracking that as well via my own comments the last few days but hard to predict that with any degree of certainty until we actually get systems to develop and track but yes the pattern should be a bit more favorable as we head into mjo phases that would support some development potentially in the Atlantic.

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 oh yeah when i meant cooler weather, i definitely meant “ cooler” with an emphasis on the apostrophes lol, any degree below normal you can get in the summer, thats a win in my books, in while youre right in that models arent that aggressive with rainfall totals, they ro at least show a pattern more favorable for rain chances at least with a weak cold front sliding into the state, every day thats below 100 is one day closer to winter lol

[TomballEd]

The only mischief from the tropics for Texas in the next two weeks *probably* is 'home grown'. Ensembles continue to see 'home grown' #93L type systems, none to strong.

'Just right' rains which may be winding down for SETX as they push to the W from son of #93L, a weaker inverted trough may shower mid week, and both ensemble families see the occasional system either side of Florida. Ensemble shear becomes favorable in the Gulf after 10 days. Nothing on the ensembles after that. GFS 12Z Caribbean strong TS/Cat 1 hurricane for L. Antilles but ensembles don't do anything with it after that. Ensembles see generally low PW over the Gulf after 10 days with fairly high heights and surface pressure. That means lower shear but so what.

Weak COL on ensembles between the Sonoran and the Bermuda ridges, so temps even with lower rain chances after next week should be normal to slightly above. Op still shows an attempt at another 93L situation in the Gulf in 13 days but a lot of dry air and a little bit of shear keeps that as another chance at coastal showers ~August 7.

[Ntxw]

No official (thus far) 100F for DFW. It's been a struggle, a few more chances mid to late next week but probably another close one. The last July with no 100F reading was 1992, that summer ended with 1 grand total.