Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 PM AST MON JUL 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE AN
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ITS LOW TO MID LEVEL
REFLECTIONS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT DAY OCCURRED
TODAY...WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND LIMITED CONVECTION AGAIN
OVER SOUTHWEST AND WEST PUERTO RICO. FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY TO
START...BUT GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE FROM JUST UPSTREAM
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDINESS AND A FEW MORE SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED UPPER
TROUGH AND LOW TO MID LEVEL REFLECTIONS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE
BETTER MOISTURE...SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN...A TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
PRODUCING ANOTHER PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
IS STILL EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LIMITED MOISTURE SUGGESTED A REDUCTION IN SHRA MENTIONED
IN TAFS. BUT SOUTHWEST PR TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHRA...
DOWNSTREAM OF THE BEST DAYTIME HEATING. SO REDUCED MENTION OF SHRA
FOR TAFS. SHRA TO STILL BE ISOLATED AND PROBABLY A BIT OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS FOR INTERIOR PR THIS AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ON TUE WILL INCREASE SHRA ACTIVITY THAT AFTERNOON BUT AFTER
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
5 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
452 AM AST TUE JUL 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58 WEST THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD APPROACHING TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. UNDER A PREVAILING
EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE
RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY WERE GENERALLY MINIMAL.

A GENERALLY DRY AND PLEASANT MORNING IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
PLENTIFUL OF SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING CLOUDINESS...DAYTIME HEATING WITH LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS...ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
JUST ACROSS THE REGION...WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF MOISTURE...ALONG 58 WEST THIS MORNING...IS
STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. MIMIC-TPW FROM CIMSS
SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ANOTHER STRONGER
TROPICAL WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY. THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDING...SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES BELOW 2.00
INCHES UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY. THESE VALUES WILL INCREASE ABOVE 2.00
INCHES LATE THURSDAY WITH THE PASSING OF A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST
OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH 27/16Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF TISX AND EASTWARD TO TNCM AND TKPK IN
PASSING SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA. AFTER 27/17Z TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED IN THE VICNITY OF TJMZ
TJBQ AND NORTH OF TJPS IN SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
5 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 77 / 20 40 40 40
STT 89 80 90 80 / 20 40 40 40

[Macrocane]

Moderate to intense showers awere registered yesterday (July 26 2010) in the country, the observations:

Rainfall

Rio Lempa-Zapotillo (northwest part of the country) 116.8 mm/4.60 inches
San Salvador 18 mm/0.71 inches
Ilopango 48 mm/1.89 inches
San Miguel 24 mm/0.94 inches
La Union 38 mm/1.50 inches

Temperatures

Code: Select all

Acajutla         min:23.4°C/74.1°F      max:30.9°C/87.6°F
Santa Ana        min:19.7°C/67.5°F      max:28.6°C/83.5°F
San Salvador     min:20.2°C/68.4°F      max:28.9°C/84.0°F
Las Pilas        min:13.2°C/55.8°F      max:21.1°C/70.0°F
San Miguel       min:22.1°C/71.8°F      max:34.0°C/93.2°F


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST TUE JUL 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58 WEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD APPROACHING TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY DEVELOP ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CU LINES ALSO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALSO A CU LINE DEVELOPED OVER EL
YUNQUE...AFFECTING THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE AWAY BEFORE
SUNSET.

SIMILAR TO TODAY`S WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. CU LINES WILL
ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND OVER EL YUNQUE.

A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED AT AROUND 58 WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEST AND APPROACH THE PUERTO RICO FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY THE CLOUD AND THE SHOWERS COVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY.
LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY AND WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE
LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ UNTIL 23Z. IN
GENERAL NO SIGNIFICANT FLYING HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 5 FEET AND WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BLOW AT AROUND 15 KNOTS. A SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ON
SEAS AND WINDS WILL OCCUR OM FRIDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS. CU LINES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A wave will move thru later today thru tommorow and another one for the weekend,But I think we may have to start to look to our east as the models are in consensus for something developing down the road.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
412 AM AST WED JUL 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD APPROACHING TO THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. UNDER A PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND
FLOW...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE
SHOWERS THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WERE GENERALLY MINIMAL.

A GENERALLY DRY AND PLEASANT MORNING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH PLENTIFUL OF SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...FOR THIS AFTERNOON...
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING CLOUDINESS...DAYTIME HEATING WITH
LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS...ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE OF AN INVERTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST ACROSS THE REGION...WILL INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SURGE OF MOISTURE...ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OR
ALONG 62 WEST THIS MORNING...IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...PRODUCING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS MIMIC-TPW FROM CIMSS
SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A SECOND TROPICAL
WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED FOR UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT ESPECIALLY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY. IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS REASONING...THE
GFS FORECAST SOUNDING...SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES BELOW 2.00 INCHES UNTIL
LATE FRIDAY. THESE VALUES WILL INCREASE WELL ABOVE 2.00 INCHES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH 28/16Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF TISX AND EASTWARD TO TNCM AND TKPK IN
PASSING SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA. AFTER 28/17Z TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF
TJMZ...TJBQ AND NORTH OF TJPS IN SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA.
CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AREA-WIDE AFTER 29/00Z AS TROPICAL
WAVE APPROACHES.

[cycloneye]

Below is this mornings discussion by Crownweather services.

Discussion
The tropical Atlantic remains quiet this morning and tropical cyclone development is not expected for the next few days. So, if you haven’t checked your hurricane supply kits and refill what is needed; do so as soon as possible. Also, go over your Hurricane Preparedness plans and know your evacuation routes.

All interests are now turning towards the long range prospects of things getting very busy in the tropical Atlantic starting next week. The GFS, Canadian and European models all forecast that Colin will form sometime next week with Danielle and Earl possibly developing during the following week (Week of August 9th).

Let’s look at each model really quick: The GFS model forecasts that Colin will form east of the Lesser Antilles near 50 West Longitude on Tuesday and then pass just north of the Virgin Islands next Thursday before curving out into the open Atlantic. The GFS model also forecasts that Danielle will form near the Cape Verde Islands next Thursday or Friday before that storm is pulled out into the open Atlantic. Ultimately, the GFS model forecasts that Earl and possibly Fiona will form out in the eastern Atlantic around August 12th.

The Canadian model forecasts that Colin will develop in the eastern Atlantic near 35 or 40 West Longitude this weekend and be located near 50 West Longitude on Tuesday. Ultimately, the Canadian model forecasts that Colin will be pulled northward well east of the Lesser Antilles later next week. The Canadian model also forecasts that Danielle will form in the southwest Caribbean on Monday and track west-northwest and come ashore on the Yucatan Peninsula next Wednesday (my birthday).

The European model is pretty troubling and it’s kind of hard to ignore. It forecasts that Colin will form from the tropical disturbance that is now tracking off of the coast of Africa and is located between 15 and 20 West Longitude early this morning. The Euro forecasts that Colin will develop late this weekend or early next week out near 35 or 40 West Longitude. The European model forecasts that this system will track westward and track across the Lesser Antilles (Looks like directly over Dominica and Martinique next Thursday. In 10 days or next Friday, the European model forecasts that Colin will be located in the eastern Caribbean just south of Puerto Rico.

So, it seems the bottom line is that activity will remain quiet for the next few days, but then it may ramp up pretty rapidly within the next 7 to 10 days, if not sooner. The model consensus of activity picking up in a real hurry is pretty believable to me. Rainfall total maps from Africa show that it has been pretty wet there over the last week and this is a pretty good signal that things will pick up really soon.

In conclusion, I want to strongly stress that this upcoming weekend may be the last weekend for a while without at least one named tropical system on the map. As I mentioned at the beginning of this discussion, please check and recheck your hurricane supply kits, refill what is needed. Also, go over what you will do and where you will go if you have to evacuate because of a hurricane. Enjoy this upcoming weekend, but at the same time get ready for what may be a very, very busy several weeks coming up.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST WED JUL 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TROPICAL WAVE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH PW VALUES WENT DOWN QUIET A BIT IN LAST 12Z
TJSJ SOUNDING...ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WAS ENOUGH
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA...AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PART OF THE ISLAND. LITTLE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED ELSEWHERE...WITH BASICALLY LIGHT PASSING
SHOWERS AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME.
HOWEVER...THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND.
FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
LOCAL AREA...INCREASING SOMEWHAT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATED BETTER MOISTURE OF THIS WAVE
WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...FOR LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY...A STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY
NEAR 45 WEST LONGITUDE THIS AFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING WITH
IT...ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY SUNDAY...WHEN THE
WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF OUR AREA. IN
THE LONG TERM...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST
TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AT THIS MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA...
INCLUDING AROUND TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJSJ THROUGH AT LEAST 28/23Z...IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR TISX.


&&

[abajan]

Below is this mornings discussion by Crownweather services.

Discussion
The tropical Atlantic remains quiet this morning and tropical cyclone development is not expected for the next few days. So, if you haven’t checked your hurricane supply kits and refill what is needed; do so as soon as possible. Also, go over your Hurricane Preparedness plans and know your evacuation routes.

All interests are now turning towards the long range prospects of things getting very busy in the tropical Atlantic starting next week. The GFS, Canadian and European models all forecast that Colin will form sometime next week with Danielle and Earl possibly developing during the following week (Week of August 9th).

Let’s look at each model really quick: The GFS model forecasts that Colin will form east of the Lesser Antilles near 50 West Longitude on Tuesday and then pass just north of the Virgin Islands next Thursday before curving out into the open Atlantic. The GFS model also forecasts that Danielle will form near the Cape Verde Islands next Thursday or Friday before that storm is pulled out into the open Atlantic. Ultimately, the GFS model forecasts that Earl and possibly Fiona will form out in the eastern Atlantic around August 12th.

The Canadian model forecasts that Colin will develop in the eastern Atlantic near 35 or 40 West Longitude this weekend and be located near 50 West Longitude on Tuesday. Ultimately, the Canadian model forecasts that Colin will be pulled northward well east of the Lesser Antilles later next week. The Canadian model also forecasts that Danielle will form in the southwest Caribbean on Monday and track west-northwest and come ashore on the Yucatan Peninsula next Wednesday (my birthday).

The European model is pretty troubling and it’s kind of hard to ignore. It forecasts that Colin will form from the tropical disturbance that is now tracking off of the coast of Africa and is located between 15 and 20 West Longitude early this morning. The Euro forecasts that Colin will develop late this weekend or early next week out near 35 or 40 West Longitude. The European model forecasts that this system will track westward and track across the Lesser Antilles (Looks like directly over Dominica and Martinique next Thursday. In 10 days or next Friday, the European model forecasts that Colin will be located in the eastern Caribbean just south of Puerto Rico.

So, it seems the bottom line is that activity will remain quiet for the next few days, but then it may ramp up pretty rapidly within the next 7 to 10 days, if not sooner. The model consensus of activity picking up in a real hurry is pretty believable to me. Rainfall total maps from Africa show that it has been pretty wet there over the last week and this is a pretty good signal that things will pick up really soon.

In conclusion, I want to strongly stress that this upcoming weekend may be the last weekend for a while without at least one named tropical system on the map. As I mentioned at the beginning of this discussion, please check and recheck your hurricane supply kits, refill what is needed. Also, go over what you will do and where you will go if you have to evacuate because of a hurricane. Enjoy this upcoming weekend, but at the same time get ready for what may be a very, very busy several weeks coming up.

Wow!
Looks like the switch is about to be flipped. Buckle up, peeps!

[caribsue]

Looks like another wet Kadooment - Carnival for Barbados

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1050 PM AST WED JUL 28 2010

.UPDATE...A TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS WILL TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WHILE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN OVERALL CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. WENT AHEAD AN
TWEAKED THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER UPWARD A BIT ACROSS THIS AREA FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY
TO INHERITED FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
USVI AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT IN SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS.

[abajan]

East of the Lesser Antilles, convection is really blooming now

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Wave east of Antilles is very convective this morning so we can expect bad weather for the next 48 hours first for the Lesser Antilles and later for the NE Caribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
425 AM AST THU JUL 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
REGION...WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A WEAK TROPICAL
JUST ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. UNDER A PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND
FLOW...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS
THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WERE
GENERALLY MINIMAL.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING CLOUDINESS PROVIDED
BY THE PRESENCE A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE REGION...DIURNAL
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS...WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. RADAR AND SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS THE GFS AND MIMIC TPW FROM CIMSS...SUGGEST
THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS OR ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
WAVE...A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...FRIDAY AND FOR THE MOST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
INDICATE BY THE GFS GUIDANCE. ONLY THE TYPICAL DIURNALLY INDUCE
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THOSE
DAYS. A STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 50W THIS MORNING...IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS
WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE
REGION BY THAT TIME...INDUCING A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FA. IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS REASONING...THE GFS
FORECAST SOUNDING...INDICATED PWAT OF ABOVE 2.0 INCHES FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT...DECREASING BELOW 2 INCHES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND INCREASING AGAIN WELL ABOVE 2.00 INCHES LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. LOOKING WELL AHEAD...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AT THIS MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER...SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR. THE SHRA ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT
THE FLIGHT AREA ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ...PRODUCING TEMPO MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE SITES BETWEEN 29/17Z TO 29/22Z. MOUNTAINS
OBSCURATION ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.
LLVL WINDS WILL PREVAIL MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

[cycloneye]

I reposted this from the Wave approaching Lesser Antilles thread at Talking tropics.

knotimpaired Post subject: Posted: Thu Jul 29, 2010 9:32 am


Category 1



Joined: Fri May 20, 2005 5:14 am
Posts: 313
Location: Vieques, PR Many on the island are still having DMAX and telephone issues so I will make this brief because I am now on a aircard.

Hopefully Luis will pick this up and post it on the Carib site.

FEMA gauges their response funding on the total rainfall as when then un-named Bonnie was when she dumped all of the rain on Vieques. (we are a municipality under consideration of a State of Disaster area) Mind you I am speaking below about a rain event, not wind.

Unfortunately we have the only weather station on the island that is up and running. Camp Garcia's was washed out during Jeanne.

Truth be told, since we own a private weather station we are not recognized as official therefore CNN, Weather Channel, ABC, etc. is reporting we have had only 8+ inches when in reality we have had 14.73" at our house.

This is a Weatherhawk system that small airports, universities and major entities use to track weather. What I am trying to say this is not a system you go to Walmart to buy.

Hence, we will get screwed since we are not official and our island municipality has no interest in providing accurate data.

Go figure.

PS Helicopters are flying over the island..That usually means a major drug bust

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST THU JUL 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA
CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF
THE LOCAL REGION...WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR IS ENTERING THE AREA IT HAS BEEN
A SLOW PROCESS. AS USUAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTION OF THE
ISLAND...WITH THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION BETWEEN MAYAGUEZ AND ANASCO.
MOST OF THIS WEATHER WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE
LEFT BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS NOW SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.
MODELS PERSIST ON BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE LOCAL AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIB WATERS
WITHOUT IMPACTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE IS
A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SOUTHWARD TO THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
WINDWARDS. THIS LINE IS PROGRESSING WEST AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. TUTT LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
VENTILATION FOR THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED AND ISOLATED
WILL LINGER IN TE VICINITY OF TJMZ AND SOUTH OF TJBQ...PRODUCING
TEMPO MVFR UNTIL 00Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PREVAIL MAINLY FROM THE
EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

[Gustywind]

- Supposed to be under flood watch until 4:00 p.m.
By Eye Write <eyewatcheyewrite at gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2010 13:58:38 -0400

I haven't heard anything more since the update in the 12:30 news.

This information compliments http://www.cdera.org . (There is a message at the top indicating that the flood watch has been discontinued but when I click on it, that discontinued watch was for July 9. ??? )

Barbados Forecast for Thursday 29th July, 2010.

Synopsis: The ITCZ is affecting the island.
Weather: This Afternoon and Tonight: Generally cloudy to overcast with periods of moderate to heavy showers,periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms.
In-depth weather discussion

Wind: ENE- E at 15-35 km/h.
Sea: Moderate in open water with swells 2.0-2.5m. Smallcraft operators and sea bathers should exercise caution.
High tides: 05:30 hrs 18:10 hrs
Low tides: 11:36 hrs 23:56 hrs
Rainfall ending 6 am today: 3.6 mm
Total rainfall for the month: 247.8 mm
Total rainfall for the year: 684.8 mm (Thu Jul 29, 2010)

Meteorologist: Rosalind Blenman

[Gustywind]

From stormcarib.com
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

Twave is continuing to pop this afternoon...begining to spread on the Windwards islands.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

Good morning. They are watching 90L.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST FRI JUL 30 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THERE IS A TUTT AT 25 NORTH 58 WEST
WITH WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING WEST ALONG 20 NORTH TO CUBA. TROUGHING
IS SET TO INTENSIFY NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OVER THE
WEEKEND AND THEN FADE VERY SLOWLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. LOW RETURNS TO NEARLY THE SAME LOCATION BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...BUT
LOW PRESSURE BREAKS IT UP INTO SMALLER CENTERS BY MID WEEK. A WEAK
TROUGH IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC MOVES TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE
NEXT 4 DAYS BUT WEAKENS. MID LEVELS ARE DRY UNTIL MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SECOND PERTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH ON
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN SUCCESSION ROUGHLY TIMED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY
MORNING...FRIDAY MORNING...AND SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY POSSIBLY PASSING NORTH.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MIMIC PRODUCT AND SOUNDER SHOWS BACK EDGE OF
MOISTURE MOVING INTO EASTERN PUERTO RICO NOW...HAVING ALREADY
PASSED THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND OVERNIGHT. SOUNDER DATA SHOWS A DROP
FROM 2.2 INCHES TO 1.8 INCHES LAST 12 HOURS. THE NAM STILL HOLDS
ON TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEWPOINTS AT SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT
CROIX ONLY DROPPED TO THE MID 70S. DEWPOINTS IN SAN JUAN HAVE BEEN
77 OR 78 ALL NIGHT. THEREFORE AM RELATIVELY CONFIDENT THAT LACK OF
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE AT LOWER LEVELS WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO...THOUGH EXACT LOCATION AND COVERAGE ARE
FUZZIER. RAIN CHANCES IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE MUCH LESS
HOWEVER.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND BUT AGAIN
CANNOT RULE OUT VERY LOCAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. ON MONDAY SOME MOISTURE APPEARS TO RETURN.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEK AND DEVELOPS THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NOW INTO A TROPICAL
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER NEXT
WEEKEND. PRIOR RUNS OF THE GFS DEVELOPED THE WAVE BUT LEFT IT NORTH
OF THE AREA AND THE CURRENT 00Z VERSION DEVELOPS IT AFTER IT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA AS A WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT CANNOT BE
EMPHASIZED TOO STRONGLY THAT NO MODEL HAS SHOWN CONSISTENCY IN
HANDLING THESE SYSTEMS AND CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE BEEN MADE ON THE
BASIS THAT NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL FORM UPSTREAM FROM THE LOCAL
AREA...BUT THAT THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK MAY CONTAIN STRONGER WINDS AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITIONS OF THE TUTT LOW
THAT DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF BREAKS OFF A CIRCULATION
AND PASSES IT SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS...WHERE AS THE GFS TENDS TO
HOLD PRESSURE WEAKNESS AT UPPER LEVELS IN A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR CONVECTION HERE AND TO OUR NORTH. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THE CURRENT SOLUTION OF THE GFS SHOWS MANY WAVELETS
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EACH
BRINGING A PULSE OF ENERGY THAT TENDS TO BRING HEAVIEST RAIN NORTH
OF THE AREA. THIS IS A PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION...BUT WAVES MAY NOT MOVE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT THEY WILL
STRENGTHEN AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARE ABLE
TO COALESCE INTO A SINGLE MORE POWERFUL OR COHERENT WAVE. NEEDLESS
TO SAY CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
WEATHER IN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL
CONCENTRATE OVER TJMZ AND VICINITY...PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR CONDS
AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURATIONS DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. LLVL WIND FLOW
WILL PREVAIL MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT FOR THE
TIME BEING...BUT SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION AS
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO KEEP SEAS IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE IN
EXPOSED WATERS. LATER SEA HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND ON THE BEHAVIOR OF
THE WAVES SLATED FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&