http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Thursday, August 5, 2010 650 am EDT/550 am CDT
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Discussion
Remnant Low Pressure Colin:
The remnant low pressure system that was once Tropical Storm Colin was located about 200 miles north of the Leeward Islands this morning. Unlike yesterday at this time, this system is now tracking northwest at a forward speed of 20 to 25 mph. Satellite imagery indicates some increased organization overnight, however, it looks like it has not closed off a circulation as of yet. It should be noted that even though this is not officially a tropical storm, it is producing tropical storm force winds on this system’s north side and with reconnaissance aircraft going out to investigate it this afternoon, it would not surprise me to see it upgraded to a tropical storm late this afternoon.
The latest hurricane track guidance, dynamical models and global models all seem to agree that Colin will turn northward somewhere along the 67 or 68 West Longitude line and interests in Bermuda should keep an eye on Colin as it may affect you folks this weekend. The intensity guidance seem to indicate that Colin may become a hurricane in 4 to 5 days, however, it seems more likely that it will remain a tropical storm throughout the rest of its life. So, as you can see there have been some significant changes in the forecast track of Colin. The reason for this is that the high pressure system extending from the Atlantic westward into the southern United States really looks like it will break down enough to allow Colin to curve northward and northeastward out into the open Atlantic.
The only impact that Colin will have on the US East Coast will be some high seas, rough seas and possible rip tides this weekend, especially along the Mid-Atlantic coast.
Elsewhere In The Tropical Atlantic:
There is quite a bit going on in the tropical Atlantic, besides Colin, so let’s take a look:
A tropical disturbance, designated Invest 92-L, is located in the western Caribbean this morning. There are some shower and thunderstorm activity associated with it, however, it is pretty disorganized and I really think the chances of this becoming a tropical depression are low. In addition, like yesterday, I expect this system to track westward into Central America by about Saturday.
Of more interest is what’s going on in the eastern Atlantic between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. I am closely watching a very robust tropical disturbance between 35 and 40 West Longitude and I fully expect that this will develop further over the coming days and will go out on a limb and say that this will likely be named Danielle by early next week, if not sooner.
Wind shear values over this system is pretty low. In addition, water vapor imagery indicates that this is located in a moist environment. The GFS model has been latching onto this system for at least several days now and forecasts that this will be fully developed by late this weekend. All indications are that this system will track west-northwest over the next several days, however, recurvature out into the open Atlantic seems likely next week since the high pressure system out there is currently fairly weak. With that said, this is still several days away that it could recurve and this could change between now and then. At this point I am giving this system a moderate to high chance of developing into Tropical Storm Danielle by early next week.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Friday morning.
. Here it's the fourth day with water temps at 30°Celsius given Meteo-France weather forecast.
