Next big severe outbreak starts Monday?

[CrazyC83]

New tornado watch coming. Outside chance of being PDS.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0443
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0620 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW/SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO SW OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 124...

VALID 172320Z - 172345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 124
CONTINUES.

WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TO REPLACE MUCH OF WW 124 PRIOR TO THE
SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIME /00Z/...AND EXTEND SSWWD A COUPLE TIERS OF
COUNTIES SSWWD FROM CURRENT WW.

REGIONAL RADARS HAVE SHOWN A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND WITH ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE NRN EXTENT OF WW 124 IN OK DURING THE LAST HALF HOUR
/SINCE 2230Z/. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AT VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW IN SW OK WHERE IT INTERSECTS WITH SEWD
MOVING BOUNDARY. THIS LATTER BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE OK LOW NEWD
INTO CENTRAL OK/SERN KS. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM
ACROSS PARTS OF SW TO CENTRAL OK.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS SWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PARTS OF WW 124 AND
FARTHER SWWD TO SW TX WHERE RECENT TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATED A TRIPLE POINT IN THE VICINITY OF ABI WITH A DRY LINE
EXTENDING SWD TO VAL VERDE COUNTY TX. ZONE OF GREATER SURFACE
HEATING IN VICINITY OF DRY LINE AND ALONG WRN EXTENT OF MOISTURE
WITH INCREASED CONVERGENCE AT TRIPLE POINT ARE LIKELY AIDING IN
RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING TO THE NW AND E OF DRT IN RESPONSE TO ASCENT SPREADING
NEWD AHEAD OF APPARENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW APPROACHING SW TX.
THIS ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND E OF DRY
LINE THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..PETERS.. 03/17/2008


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

29860208 30800163 32500033 33120003 34509972 35839921
36139799 35969716 34859717 33309754 32089802 30959855
29719927 29429950 28920014 28730064

[Ed Mahmoud]

New MD, current Svr T-Storm watch likely to be replaced w/ a Tornado Watch will will extend further SW than current watch.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New MD, current Svr T-Storm watch likely to be replaced w/ a Tornado Watch will will extend further SW than current watch.

What Crazy C83 said...

[RL3AO]

Keep your eye on the quickly developing cell west of San Antonio.

[CrazyC83]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
628 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

TXC231-172345-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-080317T2345Z/
HUNT TX-
628 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR HUNT
COUNTY...

AT 628 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GREENVILLE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
COMMERCE BY 640 PM CDT...

DO NOT STOP UNDER BRIDGES OR HIGHWAY OVERPASSES SINCE THEY OFFER NO
PROTECTION FROM TORNADO WINDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3299 9629 3303 9629 3339 9604 3340 9592
3341 9591 3341 9587 3313 9586 3300 9594
3285 9612
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 210DEG 38KT 3317 9601

$$

[RL3AO]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
638 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HUNT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
DELTA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN HOPKINS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN LAMAR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 638 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO NEAR CAMPBELL...OR ABOUT NEAR COMMERCE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PECAN GAP BY 655 PM CDT...
COOPER AND COOPER LAKE PARK DOCTORS CREEK BY 700 PM CDT...
ROXTON BY 710 PM CDT...
TOCO BY 720 PM CDT...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Link doesn't work yet, here is the picture...

[srainhoutx]

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 126
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

TORNADO WATCH 126 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC019-031-035-049-053-059-081-083-093-095-099-105-127-133-137-
143-151-163-171-193-207-221-235-237-253-259-265-267-271-281-283-
299-307-319-323-325-327-333-353-363-367-385-399-411-413-417-425-
429-435-441-447-451-463-465-479-497-503-507-180700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0126.080317T2340Z-080318T0700Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BANDERA BLANCO BOSQUE
BROWN BURNET CALLAHAN
COKE COLEMAN COMANCHE
CONCHO CORYELL CROCKETT
DIMMIT EASTLAND EDWARDS
ERATH FISHER FRIO
GILLESPIE HAMILTON HASKELL
HOOD IRION JACK
JONES KENDALL KERR
KIMBLE KINNEY LAMPASAS
LA SALLE LLANO MASON
MAVERICK MCCULLOCH MEDINA
MENARD MILLS NOLAN
PALO PINTO PARKER REAL
RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER
SHACKELFORD SOMERVELL STEPHENS
SUTTON TAYLOR THROCKMORTON
TOM GREEN UVALDE VAL VERDE
WEBB WISE YOUNG
ZAVALA
$$


ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...CRP...SJT...

[CrazyC83]

SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 126
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 640 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF MINERAL
WELLS TEXAS TO 75 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF COTULLA TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 124...WW 125...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING
IN SEVERAL AREAS ACROSS CNTRL AND S CNTRL TX...LARGELY IN RESPONSE
TO EJECTION OF STRONG UPR TROUGH NOW OVER NW MEXICO. STORMS SHOULD
FORM PRIMARILY ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/DRY LINE IN WRN PART OF
WW...BUT ALSO ALONG SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT IN NRN PART. SLIGHT
BACKING OF MID/UPR FLOW PARALLEL TO LEE TROUGH SUGGESTS EVENTUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MCS. MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO FORM
ALONG CORRIDOR OF HEATING E OF DRT. WHILE STORM MODE/LONGEVITY WILL
VARY ACROSS THE WW...STRENGTHENING DEEP WIND FIELD/UVV AND
SEASONABLY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.


...CORFIDI

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like one line of counties off/West of I-35, keeping all the big cities just outside the watch.

[Tamora]

Why is it that DFW is not included in any of the tornado watches? We hit 82 today, very humid. I would think that this would put us in the "watch" area also...

[CrazyC83]

Looks like one line of counties off/West of I-35, keeping all the big cities just outside the watch.

There will likely be new watches later this evening...

[CrazyC83]

Why is it that DFW is not included in any of the tornado watches? We hit 82 today, very humid. I would think that this would put us in the "watch" area also...

Probably due to more stable air there at the moment, but a watch is possible there later.

Also not having a watch is no guarantee that nothing will happen - the Atlanta tornado took place with no watch box anywhere near there...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Why is it that DFW is not included in any of the tornado watches? We hit 82 today, very humid. I would think that this would put us in the "watch" area also...

NWS FWD apparently has the ability to add counties to a neighboring watch, and mentioned in a recent AFD update they could extend Eastern watch a row or two of counties Westward, if they see the need.

I believe SPC and local WFOs coordinate what counties are in a watch, and didn't see need to include immediate DFW this early.

[Bunkertor]

689
WFUS54 KSJT 172354
TORSJT
TXC253-441-180045-
/O.NEW.KSJT.TO.W.0003.080317T2354Z-080318T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
654 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN JONES COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN TAYLOR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 652 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES SOUTH OF
ABILENE...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
ABILENE BY 705 PM CDT...
IMPACT BY 710 PM CDT...
HAMBY BY 720 PM CDT...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. IF NO
BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. IF IN
MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3251 9962 3250 9962 3233 9973 3234 9987
3264 9980 3260 9961 3252 9961
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 199DEG 25KT 3238 9977

[Bunkertor]

468
WFUS54 KEWX 180003
TOREWX
TXC019-180030-
/O.NEW.KEWX.TO.W.0001.080318T0003Z-080318T0030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
703 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BANDERA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT.

* AT 701 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MEDINA...OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VANDERPOOL...MOVING NORTH
AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
9 MILES WEST OF MEDINA BY 730 PM CDT...

IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...GET OUT AND GO TO A STURDY
SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH
OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2991 9947 2984 9910 2964 9936 2965 9955
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 195DEG 29KT 2963 9946

[TexasStooge]

This is gonna be a wild and crazy night!!!

[Bunkertor]

Cells also firing east of OKC

[CrazyC83]

High Risk at 0100Z?

[Ed Mahmoud]

High Risk at 0100Z?

I'm wondering about 0600Z SWODY1. The current SWODY2 has a 45% and hatched at my house.


I'm off tomorrow, watching kids at 10 am, when event should be starting, while wife has dentist's appointment.