Another week of severe weather in the southern plains?

[Bunkertor]

Interesting to see a MD that far in the north. Not uncommon but rare.

[CrazyC83]

Will the MDT be for 45H hail or 15(H?) tornadoes? (or both?)

[RL3AO]

If its only one I'd lead towards tornadoes, but it could be both.

[CrazyC83]

MDT area is pretty small, covering the I-44 corridor from OKC to Wichita Falls mostly.

[RL3AO]

MDT is for hail. Also a 10H tornado.

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 071939

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT MON APR 07 2008

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A PORTION OF SWRN/SCNTRL
OK AND WRN NORTH TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS...

....CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
19Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE ERN TX PNHDL WITH A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPING NWD INTO CNTRL OK. A DRYLINE EXTENDS S FROM
THE LOW INTO WRN NORTH TX AND THE ERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. AHEAD OF
THE DRYLINE...NEAR 60F DEW POINTS HAD ADVECTED NWD INTO CNTRL/SRN OK
BENEATH AROUND 8 DEG C/KM MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN RAPIDLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES...MLCAPES WERE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG WITH
WEAKENING INHIBITION.

CONTINUED WARMING INTO THE UPR 70S/NEAR 80F AND APPROACH OF A LARGER
SCALE MID-LVL WAVE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SUSTAINED TSTM INITIATION ALONG/E OF THE DRYLINE FROM SWRN OK SWD
INTO WRN N TX/BIG COUNTRY BY 21Z. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS AND MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. MOREOVER...TORNADO
PROBABILITIES WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED EARLY THIS EVENING OVER
SWRN...CNTRL...SCNTRL OK AND WRN NORTH TX WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
REMAIN BACKED /SRH 250+ M2/S2/ IN A REGION WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. LATEST TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE INCLUDED A
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO RISK OVER THE MDT RISK AREA ALONG WITH AN
UPGRADE TO VERY LARGE HAIL PROBABILITIES. GIVEN A MERE 5 DEG F
INCREASE IN THE SFC DEW POINTS WOULD BOOST THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR
MORE ROBUST TORNADO PROBABILITIES...BUT THIS LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IS
LACKING ATTM. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ENEWD INTO PORTION OF ERN OK
OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS AND
ISOLD TORNADOES.

FARTHER N...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM N OF THE WARM FRONT
THROUGHOUT SRN KS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WILL FOSTER HAIL PRODUCTION IN ANY STRONGER STORMS.

...ERN LWR MI...
OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCD WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO
RAPIDLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION AT MID-AFTN. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 50S/60S WITH MID
40 DEW POINTS COMMON... CONTRIBUTING TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SBCAPE.
ISOLD-WDLY SCT TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS ERN
LWR MI BY 00Z. ACTIVITY MAY YIELD ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS OR
HAIL...BUT WIDESPREAD SVR TSTMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

..RACY.. 04/07/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1943Z (3:43PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[RL3AO]

[Bunkertor]

Maps will become quite colored in some minutes

[6SpeedTA95]

MDT is pretty small, it will be interesting to see if they bring that north and east as the day progresses.

[Bunkertor]

SPC AC 071939

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT MON APR 07 2008

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z


...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A PORTION OF SWRN/SCNTRL
OK AND WRN NORTH TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS...

....CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
19Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE ERN TX PNHDL WITH A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPING NWD INTO CNTRL OK. A DRYLINE EXTENDS S FROM
THE LOW INTO WRN NORTH TX AND THE ERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. AHEAD OF
THE DRYLINE...NEAR 60F DEW POINTS HAD ADVECTED NWD INTO CNTRL/SRN OK
BENEATH AROUND 8 DEG C/KM MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN RAPIDLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES...MLCAPES WERE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG WITH
WEAKENING INHIBITION.

CONTINUED WARMING INTO THE UPR 70S/NEAR 80F AND APPROACH OF A LARGER
SCALE MID-LVL WAVE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SUSTAINED TSTM INITIATION ALONG/E OF THE DRYLINE FROM SWRN OK SWD
INTO WRN N TX/BIG COUNTRY BY 21Z. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS AND MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. MOREOVER...TORNADO
PROBABILITIES WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED EARLY THIS EVENING OVER
SWRN...CNTRL...SCNTRL OK AND WRN NORTH TX WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
REMAIN BACKED /SRH 250+ M2/S2/ IN A REGION WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. LATEST TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE INCLUDED A
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO RISK OVER THE MDT RISK AREA ALONG WITH AN
UPGRADE TO VERY LARGE HAIL PROBABILITIES. GIVEN A MERE 5 DEG F
INCREASE IN THE SFC DEW POINTS WOULD BOOST THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR
MORE ROBUST TORNADO PROBABILITIES...BUT THIS LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IS
LACKING ATTM. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ENEWD INTO PORTION OF ERN OK
OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS AND
ISOLD TORNADOES.

FARTHER N...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM N OF THE WARM FRONT
THROUGHOUT SRN KS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WILL FOSTER HAIL PRODUCTION IN ANY STRONGER STORMS.

...ERN LWR MI...
OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCD WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO
RAPIDLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION AT MID-AFTN. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 50S/60S WITH MID
40 DEW POINTS COMMON... CONTRIBUTING TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SBCAPE.
ISOLD-WDLY SCT TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS ERN
LWR MI BY 00Z. ACTIVITY MAY YIELD ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS OR
HAIL...BUT WIDESPREAD SVR TSTMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

..RACY.. 04/07/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2003Z (10:03PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[RL3AO]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 169
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM CDT MON APR 7 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PART OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

[CrazyC83]

BREAKING NEWS - it is PDS!!!

Now why did they leave it at 10% for tornadoes with that???

[RL3AO]

DISCUSSION...A VERY POTENT SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT IS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES
COUPLED WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH VICINITY E/W FRONTAL ZONE
CENTRAL OK AND ALONG AND E OF DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD INTO NWRN TX.
SUPERCELLS WILL RAPIDLY EVOLVE GIVEN SHEAR WITH ASSOCIATED VERY
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY STORM. POTENTIAL EXITS FOR
LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS MOVING ACROSS WARM SECTOR WITH POSSIBLE STRONG
TORNADOES.

Tornado probs are 90/50

[CrazyC83]

Very risky forecast there by Hales...I don't see the need for a PDS watch at this point, but I might be seeing things differently...

[6SpeedTA95]

PDS watch for OKC and SW oklahoma
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0169.html

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 169
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM CDT MON APR 7 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PART OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
WICHITA FALLS TEXAS TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...A VERY POTENT SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT IS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES
COUPLED WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH VICINITY E/W FRONTAL ZONE
CENTRAL OK AND ALONG AND E OF DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD INTO NWRN TX.
SUPERCELLS WILL RAPIDLY EVOLVE GIVEN SHEAR WITH ASSOCIATED VERY
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY STORM. POTENTIAL EXITS FOR
LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS MOVING ACROSS WARM SECTOR WITH POSSIBLE STRONG
TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.

[RL3AO]

BREAKING NEWS - it is PDS!!!

Now why did they leave it at 10% for tornadoes with that???

Have you ever seen a PDS TOR for slight tornado probs?

[CrazyC83]

BREAKING NEWS - it is PDS!!!

Now why did they leave it at 10% for tornadoes with that???

Have you ever seen a PDS TOR for slight tornado probs?

January 7, 2008 - PDS watch on top of what was entirely a slight risk...

[6SpeedTA95]

Man guys I'm going over some data here, I'm not really seeing the justification for the PDS? Maybe they've got some recent sounding data or something that I dont see. The area seems to be destabalizing but is it doing it fast enough to get to a PDS? They did hatch the tornado area on the latest convective outlook which was expected.

[RL3AO]

I still stunned it was a PDS. I was not expecting that.

[6SpeedTA95]

Very risky forecast there by Hales...I don't see the need for a PDS watch at this point, but I might be seeing things differently...

Well I tend to agree with you, but they could have an armload of data you and I dont have access to.