Severe weather/outbreak? - April 23-25

[RL3AO]

[Bunkertor]

The first thunderstorm has developed along the WY/KS border. Its probably getting ready to take off.

OK, we have got some time now. Does anyone know what to experience in Wyoming. Tell an confederate

[RL3AO]

First warning of the year for Minnesota.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
530 PM CDT THU APR 24 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
FREEBORN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 527 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 14
MILES WEST OF ALBERT LEA...OR ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MINNESOTA
LAKE...AND MOVING EAST AT 37 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALBERT LEA...
GLENVILLE...
HAYWARD...
ALDEN...
CONGER...

[RL3AO]

Here we go.


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
446 PM MDT THU APR 24 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
SOUTHEASTERN YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...
SOUTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN SHERMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 545 PM MDT/645 PM CDT/

* AT 443 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES SOUTH
OF BONNY RESERVOIR...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF KANORADO...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 32 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BONNY RESERVOIR AROUND 505 PM MDT...
HALE AROUND 510 PM MDT...
BEECHER ISLAND AROUND 535 PM MDT...

[CrazyC83]

This was sure slow to develop...now will it build out?

[RL3AO]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 226
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
605 PM CDT THU APR 24 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 605 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF IMPERIAL NEBRASKA TO 60 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF HILL CITY
KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH
THE EVENING AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE
EWD FROM CO TO KS/NEB. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN
EXCESS OF 50 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUGGEST THIS THREAT IS
LIMITED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26020.


...THOMPSON

[CrazyC83]

Hardly worthy of a moderate risk.

[RL3AO]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
812 PM CDT THU APR 24 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN DECATUR COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN RAWLINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
WESTERN SHERIDAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN THOMAS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 810 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR REXFORD...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 29 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SELDEN AROUND 825 PM CDT...
9 MILES NORTHEAST OF SEGUIN AROUND 835 PM CDT...
HOXIE AROUND 850 PM CDT...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Yowza

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
732 PM MDT THU APR 24 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0731 PM HAIL SELDEN 39.54N 100.57W
04/24/2008 E4.25 INCH SHERIDAN KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks mean on radar

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
847 PM CDT THU APR 24 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN DECATUR COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
WESTERN GRAHAM COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN NORTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT

* AT 843 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF NEW ALMELO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 27 MPH. THIS STORM HAS
A HISTORY OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
POSSIBLE TORNADO.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES NORTHEAST OF STUDLEY AROUND 910 PM CDT...
MORLAND AROUND 920 PM CDT...
PENOKEE AROUND 925 PM CDT...
HILL CITY AROUND 935 PM CDT...

[RL3AO]

Impressive

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like a probable tornado just passed very near to Hill City, population a little over 1000.

[liveweatherman]

TORNADO WARNING
Issue Date: 150 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2008
Expiration: 215 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

KSC201-250715-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080425T0715Z/
WASHINGTON-
149 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 AM CDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY...

AT 144 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY...OR 18
MILES NORTHEAST OF CONCORDIA...MOVING EAST AT 33 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. TAKE COVER IN A
BASEMENT OR STORM SHELTER NOW!

LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES...AND GO TO A BASEMENT OR STORM
SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH
OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD. AVOID OVERPASSES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3974 9725 3966 9717 3963 9736 3967 9736
3968 9736 3976 9736 3982 9731
TIME...MOT...LOC 0649Z 252DEG 29KT 3971 9732

$$

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
Issue Date: 121 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2008
Expiration: 415 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
REPUBLIC COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 415 AM CDT

* AT 112 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER REPUBLIC AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES HAS ALREADY PRODUCED 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST COULD PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELLEVILLE...
COURTLAND...
CUBA...
HADDAM...
HOLLENBURG...
MAHASKA...
MORROWVILLE...
MUNDEN...
NARKA...
NORWAY...
REPUBLIC...
SCANDIA...
WASHINGTON...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND...AWAY FROM RISING WATER
AND NEVER DRIVE ON ROADS COVERED BY WATER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THE SEVERE WEATHER.

LAT...LON 3999 9680 3997 9680 3975 9708 3965 9792
3999 9792
TIME...MOT...LOC 0618Z 180DEG 0KT 3982 9754

$$

TORNADO WATCH
Issue Date: 114 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2008
Expiration: 700 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

KSC013-027-029-085-117-131-149-157-161-201-251200-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.A.0227.000000T0000Z-080425T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KTOP.TO.A.0229.080425T0615Z-080425T1200Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 229 UNTIL
7 AM CDT THIS MORNING WHICH REPLACES A PORTION OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 227. THE NEW WATCH IS VALID FOR THE FOLLOWING
AREAS

IN KANSAS THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES

IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS

CLAY CLOUD REPUBLIC
WASHINGTON

IN NORTHEAST KANSAS

BROWN JACKSON MARSHALL
NEMAHA POTTAWATOMIE RILEY

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
HIAWATHA...MANHATTAN AND MARYSVILLE.

$$

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
Issue Date: 1018 PM CDT THU APR 24 2008
Expiration: 600 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 227 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
KSC013-027-029-041-061-085-087-089-117-123-131-141-143-149-157-
161-177-183-197-201-251100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0227.080425T0320Z-080425T1100Z/
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CLAY CLOUD
DICKINSON GEARY JACKSON
JEFFERSON JEWELL MARSHALL
MITCHELL NEMAHA OSBORNE
OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC
RILEY SHAWNEE SMITH
WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON
$$

[Bunkertor]

13 z outlook wording suggests a surprise for today. Upgrade seems not to be imminent but this slight risk outlook definately displays the upper third of the corridor

[Ed Mahmoud]

We're logging our new well tomorrow, and my boss wants me to supervise. The well is in Wichita County, not far from Wichita Falls, but the fastest way there when I-45 is a construction nightmare is Texas Highway 6 to Waco, I-35W to Fort Worth, US 287 to Wichita Falls and then out US 82.

My trip should bring me close to the hatched area in time to see the fun. Of course, I don't want to inflict damaging hail on my beautiful 2007 Chevrolet Impala.

[Ed Mahmoud]

DFW sounding shows a pronounced cap, but loads of instability and loads of shear (over 2000 J/Kg CAPE and almost 400 J/Kg low level helicity), and while the supposed convective temperature is 91ºF (33ºC), I think the approaching frontal circulation and the base of the vortex passing near around the time of peak heating will fire storms today, and while the model precip suggests storms along and just behind front, any storm that can pop ahead of the cold front would probably be supercellurar and potentially tornadic until the front catches up to it.

I'd be tempted, based on that sounding, to go MODERATE RISK near DFW if any 12Z models suggest pre-frontal storm initiation.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think I can see the front. Wish me luck in seeing cool weather and not damaging the Impala.

[CrazyC83]

Quite a bit of activity overnight!

[Bunkertor]

Hm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0728
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...ERN IA...WRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251721Z - 251815Z

CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM
THE MO/IA BORDER...SWD TO NEAR I-70 IN CNTRL MO PER RAPID INCREASE
IN LIGHTNING AND REFLECTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE AS COLD FRONT SURGES EWD INTO ERN IA AND
WRN IL. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS HAS
DESTABILIZED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH SBCAPE
VALUES NOW ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUSTAIN DISCRETE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...ALTHOUGH STRONG FORCING MAY ULTIMATELY RESULT IN A
SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. EVEN SO...IT APPEARS SEVERE
THREAT...INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES...IS INCREASING ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY. WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR.

[CrazyC83]

Yep, increasing threat for severe weather - including scattered tornadoes.