Severe weather outbreak? April 2 - MDT risk
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CrazyC83
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- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
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Re: Severe weather outbreak? April 2 - MDT risk
SPC AC 021639
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CDT THU APR 02 2009
VALID 021630Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL/NRN MS AND AL...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR N FL
AND S GA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREAS...FOR THE LOWER MS/OH VALLEYS INTO THE SE ATLANTIC COASTAL
PLAIN...
...SYNOPSIS...
COMPLICATED SCENARIO TODAY WITH THE LARGE ONGOING MCS ACROSS THE NE
GULF COAST...AND PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION SURGING EWD FROM LA/AR
TOWARD MS AS OF MID-LATE MORNING. THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL
HAVE A POTENTIALLY LARGE IMPACT ON THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY
INTO AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.
...MCS FROM NE GULF COAST TO S GA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...
THE TRAINING CONVECTION WITHIN THE GULF COAST MCS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS N FL/S
GA/SRN SC. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE SUSTAINED BY A CONTINUED INFLUX
OF 68-70 F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
IN THE ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SPEED MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET. A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LLJ AND RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES IN THE LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT.
...PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION TODAY ACROSS LA/MS/AL/TN...
THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION CROSSING THE MS RIVER /WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD POOL AND POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE/ WILL LIKELY SWEEP
EWD ACROSS MUCH OF MS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTO AL. 15Z SOUNDINGS
FROM JAN/LIX HAVE SHOWN SOME LOW-LEVEL DRYING SINCE 12Z...BUT STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STILL SUPPORT MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG/ WITH DAYTIME HEATING. VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE
BAND...WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/MOISTURE APPEAR TO BE LARGE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES. FARTHER E...THE DISTRIBUTION OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/SURFACE HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION
ACROSS AL GIVEN THE RELATIVELY EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
LINE...AND THE ONGOING CONVECTION WITH RAIN-COOLED AIR ACROSS SE AL.
STILL...THE PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND AT
LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS/BOW
ECHOES WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
...SYNOPTIC LOW ACROSS AR/TN/NRN MS AND AL LATE EVENING...
THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL REDUCE INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE INLAND WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAVE A NARROW BELT OF SURFACE
HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND NEAR THE CYCLONE
CENTER /WHICH IS NOW JUST W OF TXK/. THIS REGION OF STRONG FORCING
WILL THEN SPREAD EWD OVER NRN MS/TN/NRN AL THROUGH THE EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT. THE MOST FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
ARE EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY E/SE OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MDT RISK
AREA IN MS/AL...WHERE AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO OR TWO COULD STILL
OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY ACROSS NRN MS/WRN
AND MIDDLE TN/NRN AL WILL BE THE DEGREE OF RECOVERY/ DESTABILIZATION
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFTERNOON STORMS.
..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 04/02/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1647Z (12:47PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CDT THU APR 02 2009
VALID 021630Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL/NRN MS AND AL...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR N FL
AND S GA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREAS...FOR THE LOWER MS/OH VALLEYS INTO THE SE ATLANTIC COASTAL
PLAIN...
...SYNOPSIS...
COMPLICATED SCENARIO TODAY WITH THE LARGE ONGOING MCS ACROSS THE NE
GULF COAST...AND PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION SURGING EWD FROM LA/AR
TOWARD MS AS OF MID-LATE MORNING. THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL
HAVE A POTENTIALLY LARGE IMPACT ON THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY
INTO AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.
...MCS FROM NE GULF COAST TO S GA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...
THE TRAINING CONVECTION WITHIN THE GULF COAST MCS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS N FL/S
GA/SRN SC. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE SUSTAINED BY A CONTINUED INFLUX
OF 68-70 F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
IN THE ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SPEED MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET. A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LLJ AND RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES IN THE LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT.
...PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION TODAY ACROSS LA/MS/AL/TN...
THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION CROSSING THE MS RIVER /WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD POOL AND POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE/ WILL LIKELY SWEEP
EWD ACROSS MUCH OF MS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTO AL. 15Z SOUNDINGS
FROM JAN/LIX HAVE SHOWN SOME LOW-LEVEL DRYING SINCE 12Z...BUT STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STILL SUPPORT MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG/ WITH DAYTIME HEATING. VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE
BAND...WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/MOISTURE APPEAR TO BE LARGE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES. FARTHER E...THE DISTRIBUTION OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/SURFACE HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION
ACROSS AL GIVEN THE RELATIVELY EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
LINE...AND THE ONGOING CONVECTION WITH RAIN-COOLED AIR ACROSS SE AL.
STILL...THE PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND AT
LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS/BOW
ECHOES WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
...SYNOPTIC LOW ACROSS AR/TN/NRN MS AND AL LATE EVENING...
THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL REDUCE INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE INLAND WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAVE A NARROW BELT OF SURFACE
HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND NEAR THE CYCLONE
CENTER /WHICH IS NOW JUST W OF TXK/. THIS REGION OF STRONG FORCING
WILL THEN SPREAD EWD OVER NRN MS/TN/NRN AL THROUGH THE EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT. THE MOST FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
ARE EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY E/SE OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MDT RISK
AREA IN MS/AL...WHERE AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO OR TWO COULD STILL
OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY ACROSS NRN MS/WRN
AND MIDDLE TN/NRN AL WILL BE THE DEGREE OF RECOVERY/ DESTABILIZATION
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFTERNOON STORMS.
..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 04/02/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1647Z (12:47PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
TORNADO WARNING
LAC033-063-121-021715-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0023.090402T1639Z-090402T1715Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1139 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ZACHARY...BAKER...
NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
NORTHEASTERN WEST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
* UNTIL 1215 PM CDT
* AT 1139 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BAKER...
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BAKER AND ZACHARY BY 1145 AM CDT...
GREENWELL SPRING...WATSON AND PRIDE BY NOON CDT...
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
LAT...LON 3062 9132 3064 9131 3072 9103 3072 9090
3068 9088 3066 9090 3066 9088 3055 9085
3047 9129 3062 9133
TIME...MOT...LOC 1640Z 255DEG 37KT 3058 9122
$$
LAC033-063-121-021715-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0023.090402T1639Z-090402T1715Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1139 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ZACHARY...BAKER...
NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
NORTHEASTERN WEST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
* UNTIL 1215 PM CDT
* AT 1139 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BAKER...
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BAKER AND ZACHARY BY 1145 AM CDT...
GREENWELL SPRING...WATSON AND PRIDE BY NOON CDT...
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
LAT...LON 3062 9132 3064 9131 3072 9103 3072 9090
3068 9088 3066 9090 3066 9088 3055 9085
3047 9129 3062 9133
TIME...MOT...LOC 1640Z 255DEG 37KT 3058 9122
$$
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe weather outbreak? April 2 - MDT risk
Latest satellite, broad clear swath in Mississippi and western Alabama, rapidly clearing across Alabama and even the western Florida Panhandle...
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0367
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 AM CDT THU APR 02 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...MS...SE LA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 105...106...
VALID 021651Z - 021815Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 105...106...CONTINUES.
DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT ALONG AN APPARENT
GRAVITY WAVE NOW ADVANCING TOWARD THE I-55 CORRIDOR OF MISSISSIPPI.
HOWEVER...AS REFLECTED IN 15Z RAOBS FROM SLIDELL AND JACKSON...THE
AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY IS RELATIVELY DRY...WARM AND CAPPED.
MOISTENING IS OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW-LEVEL FEATURE...AND
THIS MAY SERVE TO CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR
INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS A FAIRLY DEEP CONVECTIVELY GENERATED SURFACE
COLD POOL ADVANCES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
A SIGNIFICANT STORM CLUSTER HAS ALREADY EVOLVED ALONG THIS
OUTFLOW...WHERE IT INTERSECTS ANOTHER STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR
CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS. AIDED BY A DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME
BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS...THIS ACTIVITY COULD
CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MUCH LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WITHIN A 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW
REGIME...THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CONSIDERABLE RISK FOR
STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS NEAR THE EVOLVING MOST INTENSE LEADING
CONVECTIVE LINE MAY TEND TO BECOME SOMEWHAT UNIDIRECTIONAL ...SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITHIN THE LINE.
..KERR.. 04/02/2009
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 29359197 29899165 31609104 32749071 33509009 33868904
33418843 31988842 30718859 29238997 29359197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 AM CDT THU APR 02 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...MS...SE LA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 105...106...
VALID 021651Z - 021815Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 105...106...CONTINUES.
DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT ALONG AN APPARENT
GRAVITY WAVE NOW ADVANCING TOWARD THE I-55 CORRIDOR OF MISSISSIPPI.
HOWEVER...AS REFLECTED IN 15Z RAOBS FROM SLIDELL AND JACKSON...THE
AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY IS RELATIVELY DRY...WARM AND CAPPED.
MOISTENING IS OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW-LEVEL FEATURE...AND
THIS MAY SERVE TO CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR
INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS A FAIRLY DEEP CONVECTIVELY GENERATED SURFACE
COLD POOL ADVANCES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
A SIGNIFICANT STORM CLUSTER HAS ALREADY EVOLVED ALONG THIS
OUTFLOW...WHERE IT INTERSECTS ANOTHER STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR
CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS. AIDED BY A DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME
BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS...THIS ACTIVITY COULD
CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MUCH LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WITHIN A 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW
REGIME...THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CONSIDERABLE RISK FOR
STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS NEAR THE EVOLVING MOST INTENSE LEADING
CONVECTIVE LINE MAY TEND TO BECOME SOMEWHAT UNIDIRECTIONAL ...SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITHIN THE LINE.
..KERR.. 04/02/2009
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 29359197 29899165 31609104 32749071 33509009 33868904
33418843 31988842 30718859 29238997 29359197
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0368
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT THU APR 02 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SERN GA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 103...104...
VALID 021717Z - 021815Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 103...104...CONTINUES.
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THROUGH 19Z SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS NRN FL INTO
FAR SERN GA...WITH MINIMAL THREAT ELSEWHERE IN VALID PORTIONS OF WW
103/104. A REPLACEMENT WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 19Z FOR NRN
FL/FAR SERN GA.
LARGE MCS WITH BROAD STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD HAS SLOWLY PROGRESSED
EWD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION
APPROACHING THE COASTAL BIG BEND REGION OF FL. 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
DEPICTS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FLANKING THIS ACTIVITY TO THE NE ACROSS
SERN GA AND WWD ACROSS THE N-CNTRL GULF COAST. MUCH OF THE AIRMASS N
OF THIS AREA HAS BEEN OVERTURNED WITH MOIST ADIABATIC THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES AND NEAR-NEUTRAL LAPSE RATES /PER ACARS SOUNDINGS INVOF FFC
AND TLH/. ALONG THE SRN FLANK OF THE MCS...STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...SUSTAINED BY LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION /SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NERN GULF/...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SPEED MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET.
WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER...SHORT DURATION MESOCYCLONIC STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
QLCS SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED THREAT FOR BRIEF TORNADOES/LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.
..GRAMS.. 04/02/2009
ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 31418166 30398123 29508110 29408210 29118336 29278538
29798473 30768319 31438219 31418166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT THU APR 02 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SERN GA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 103...104...
VALID 021717Z - 021815Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 103...104...CONTINUES.
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THROUGH 19Z SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS NRN FL INTO
FAR SERN GA...WITH MINIMAL THREAT ELSEWHERE IN VALID PORTIONS OF WW
103/104. A REPLACEMENT WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 19Z FOR NRN
FL/FAR SERN GA.
LARGE MCS WITH BROAD STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD HAS SLOWLY PROGRESSED
EWD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION
APPROACHING THE COASTAL BIG BEND REGION OF FL. 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
DEPICTS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FLANKING THIS ACTIVITY TO THE NE ACROSS
SERN GA AND WWD ACROSS THE N-CNTRL GULF COAST. MUCH OF THE AIRMASS N
OF THIS AREA HAS BEEN OVERTURNED WITH MOIST ADIABATIC THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES AND NEAR-NEUTRAL LAPSE RATES /PER ACARS SOUNDINGS INVOF FFC
AND TLH/. ALONG THE SRN FLANK OF THE MCS...STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...SUSTAINED BY LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION /SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NERN GULF/...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SPEED MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET.
WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER...SHORT DURATION MESOCYCLONIC STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
QLCS SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED THREAT FOR BRIEF TORNADOES/LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.
..GRAMS.. 04/02/2009
ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 31418166 30398123 29508110 29408210 29118336 29278538
29798473 30768319 31438219 31418166
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Dave
- Retired Staff
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- Contact:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1220 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HAMMOND...
* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT
* AT 1219 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
WHITEHALL...OR 15 MILES EAST OF GONZALES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SPRINGFIELD BY 1240 PM CDT...
PONCHATOULA AND 7 MILES SOUTH OF HAMMOND BY 1245 PM CDT...
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1220 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HAMMOND...
* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT
* AT 1219 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
WHITEHALL...OR 15 MILES EAST OF GONZALES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SPRINGFIELD BY 1240 PM CDT...
PONCHATOULA AND 7 MILES SOUTH OF HAMMOND BY 1245 PM CDT...
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
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- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
Thunderstorm warnings are coming out in many states, too many to keep track really, so going with tornado warnings only unless we get a t-storm warning close to or on a members area for now.
All text warnings can be found here
http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/
All text warnings can be found here
http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1234 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHWESTERN WALTHALL COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
* UNTIL 100 PM CDT
* AT 1233 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MAGNOLIA...
OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF MCCOMB...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SALEM BY 100 PM CDT...
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1234 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHWESTERN WALTHALL COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
* UNTIL 100 PM CDT
* AT 1233 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MAGNOLIA...
OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF MCCOMB...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SALEM BY 100 PM CDT...
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re:
KWT wrote:Still got some decent cells in the northern Florida but attention must be turning towards the region with the moderate risk, with the clear slot quite obvious on the Sat.imagery.
There's still a moderate risk ahead of that as well.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0369
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT THU APR 02 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE OK INTO CNTRL AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 021750Z - 021915Z
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
STRONG MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND DIFFERENTIAL
THERMAL ADVECTION NEAR THE DEEP LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
CENTER ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR INCREASING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE NOW BEING CUT-OFF FROM GULF RETURN
FLOW. A FURTHER INCREASE AND INTENSIFICATION TO CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE AS THIS FORCING SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS BETWEEN NOW AND 20-21Z. COOL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROBABLY WILL BE CONDUCIVE
TO AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT. AND...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT PROGGED TO BE PARTICULARLY LARGE...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT BOUNDARY LAYER BASED DESTABILIZATION AND AMBIENT VERTICAL
VORTICITY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW CENTER COULD PROMOTE THE RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
..KERR.. 04/02/2009
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 35429505 35759355 34999190 34059254 34089307 34379350
34399465 34679505 35429505
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT THU APR 02 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE OK INTO CNTRL AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 021750Z - 021915Z
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
STRONG MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND DIFFERENTIAL
THERMAL ADVECTION NEAR THE DEEP LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
CENTER ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR INCREASING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE NOW BEING CUT-OFF FROM GULF RETURN
FLOW. A FURTHER INCREASE AND INTENSIFICATION TO CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE AS THIS FORCING SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS BETWEEN NOW AND 20-21Z. COOL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROBABLY WILL BE CONDUCIVE
TO AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT. AND...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT PROGGED TO BE PARTICULARLY LARGE...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT BOUNDARY LAYER BASED DESTABILIZATION AND AMBIENT VERTICAL
VORTICITY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW CENTER COULD PROMOTE THE RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
..KERR.. 04/02/2009
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 35429505 35759355 34999190 34059254 34089307 34379350
34399465 34679505 35429505
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
Might as well get some thunderstorm warnings in here now, hail sizes are ranging from nickel to hen egg size (mainly quarter size up and down the line) with winds between 60 & 70 mph.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1251 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL ATTALA COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN CHOCTAW COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
WESTERN WINSTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LOUISVILLE...
* UNTIL 130 PM CDT
* AT 1251 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ZAMA...OR 15 MILES EAST OF KOSCIUSKO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
CENTER RIDGE BY 115 PM CDT...
LOUISVILLE BY 120 PM CDT...
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1251 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL ATTALA COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN CHOCTAW COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
WESTERN WINSTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LOUISVILLE...
* UNTIL 130 PM CDT
* AT 1251 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ZAMA...OR 15 MILES EAST OF KOSCIUSKO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
CENTER RIDGE BY 115 PM CDT...
LOUISVILLE BY 120 PM CDT...
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