Another multi-day outbreak (April 17-18)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0495
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND SW TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 171930Z - 172100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS THE MCD AREA. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED BY 21Z BUT COVERAGE MAY REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED. STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT A TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON IN A MOIST STRONGLY UNSTABLE
/2500-3000 J PER KG SBCAPE/ AIRMASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE. CURRENT
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE BASED CINH
REMAINS...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AGITATED
CUMULUS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE
AND 18Z RAP AND 17Z HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INITIATION IN THIS AREA
BY 21Z. EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KT AND STEEP LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS LESS CLEAR HOWEVER. STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE MCD AREA AND STORM COVERAGE MAY REMAIN MORE ISOLATED
THAN FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
..LEITMAN/KERR.. 04/17/2013
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 31549861 33079836 33649987 34040070 34090113 33200106
31880147 31210188 30870154 30520032 30449941 30699898
31549861
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND SW TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 171930Z - 172100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS THE MCD AREA. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED BY 21Z BUT COVERAGE MAY REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED. STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT A TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON IN A MOIST STRONGLY UNSTABLE
/2500-3000 J PER KG SBCAPE/ AIRMASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE. CURRENT
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE BASED CINH
REMAINS...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AGITATED
CUMULUS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE
AND 18Z RAP AND 17Z HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INITIATION IN THIS AREA
BY 21Z. EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KT AND STEEP LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS LESS CLEAR HOWEVER. STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE MCD AREA AND STORM COVERAGE MAY REMAIN MORE ISOLATED
THAN FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
..LEITMAN/KERR.. 04/17/2013
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 31549861 33079836 33649987 34040070 34090113 33200106
31880147 31210188 30870154 30520032 30449941 30699898
31549861
0 likes
Re:
Cyclenall wrote:Is it just me, or does it look like there are hooks already starting on those two cells (soon to be 3) in SW OK? They look like sheared cells.
Im seeing rotation on the one's your talking about.
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SPC AC 171959
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
VALID 172000Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR FAR NWRN TX...MOST OF
OK...SERN KS...SWRN/CNTRL MO...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
MID-MS/TN VALLEYS...
...SRN PLAINS TO THE MID-MS/TN VALLEYS...
PRIMARY CHANGE THIS OUTLOOK IS TO ADD HIGHER WIND PROBABILITIES
WHICH EXTENDS THE MODERATE RISK FARTHER NE INTO CNTRL MO.
HERE...PRONOUNCED DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED /AS SAMPLED BY 18Z
SGF RAOB/ WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ARCING INTO NRN MO. WITH AN
IMPULSE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EJECTING INTO THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS...TSTMS FROM CNTRL KS TO SWRN OK SHOULD GROW UPSCALE THIS
EVENING. WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL S/SWLYS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN E OF THE
PIVOTING FRONT...A FEW QLCS/CLUSTERS SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE OZARK
PLATEAU TO THE MID-MS VALLEY WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS EXPECTED.
FARTHER SW...MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO SHIFT TORNADO PROBABILITIES
BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.
..GRAMS.. 04/17/2013
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
VALID 172000Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR FAR NWRN TX...MOST OF
OK...SERN KS...SWRN/CNTRL MO...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
MID-MS/TN VALLEYS...
...SRN PLAINS TO THE MID-MS/TN VALLEYS...
PRIMARY CHANGE THIS OUTLOOK IS TO ADD HIGHER WIND PROBABILITIES
WHICH EXTENDS THE MODERATE RISK FARTHER NE INTO CNTRL MO.
HERE...PRONOUNCED DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED /AS SAMPLED BY 18Z
SGF RAOB/ WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ARCING INTO NRN MO. WITH AN
IMPULSE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EJECTING INTO THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS...TSTMS FROM CNTRL KS TO SWRN OK SHOULD GROW UPSCALE THIS
EVENING. WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL S/SWLYS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN E OF THE
PIVOTING FRONT...A FEW QLCS/CLUSTERS SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE OZARK
PLATEAU TO THE MID-MS VALLEY WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS EXPECTED.
FARTHER SW...MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO SHIFT TORNADO PROBABILITIES
BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.
..GRAMS.. 04/17/2013
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0496
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NE INTO E-CNTRL IL AND W-CNTRL IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 172004Z - 172100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT INCREASING ACROSS THE MCD AREA. STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL MAY BE INITIAL THREAT BUT TORNADO RISK WILL INCREASE BY
EARLY EVENING. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR.
DISCUSSION...SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND EAST OF WW115
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. A WARM/MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...STORMS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...POSING
MAINLY A HAIL AND/OR WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...AS STORMS DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD THEY COULD BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE
WARM FRONT /CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY NWD ACROSS CENTRAL IL/. AS THIS
OCCURS...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT
ALSO WILL INCREASE. AS SUCH A WW WILL BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR.
..LEITMAN/KERR.. 04/17/2013
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38928862 39108744 39448664 39958638 40668632 41328667
41498728 41538758 41548805 40998893 40448972 40139021
39879030 39419002 39038943 38928862
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NE INTO E-CNTRL IL AND W-CNTRL IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 172004Z - 172100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT INCREASING ACROSS THE MCD AREA. STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL MAY BE INITIAL THREAT BUT TORNADO RISK WILL INCREASE BY
EARLY EVENING. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR.
DISCUSSION...SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND EAST OF WW115
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. A WARM/MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...STORMS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...POSING
MAINLY A HAIL AND/OR WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...AS STORMS DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD THEY COULD BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE
WARM FRONT /CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY NWD ACROSS CENTRAL IL/. AS THIS
OCCURS...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT
ALSO WILL INCREASE. AS SUCH A WW WILL BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR.
..LEITMAN/KERR.. 04/17/2013
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38928862 39108744 39448664 39958638 40668632 41328667
41498728 41538758 41548805 40998893 40448972 40139021
39879030 39419002 39038943 38928862
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 118
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NORTHERN INDIANA
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 335 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
QUINCY ILLINOIS TO 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE INDIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 113...WW 114...WW
115...WW 116...WW 117...
DISCUSSION...INTENSIFYING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD
ALONG A RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY EVOLVING STORM CLUSTERS.
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES BY THIS EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.
...KERR
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 118
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NORTHERN INDIANA
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 335 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
QUINCY ILLINOIS TO 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE INDIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 113...WW 114...WW
115...WW 116...WW 117...
DISCUSSION...INTENSIFYING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD
ALONG A RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY EVOLVING STORM CLUSTERS.
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES BY THIS EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.
...KERR
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0497
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL MO/EXTREME ERN KS/W CENTRAL IL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 114...
VALID 172038Z - 172215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 114 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WW 114 THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH ALL FACETS OF SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINING A THREAT.
DISCUSSION...MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH TRENDS IN
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ATTENDANT TO
TSTMS LOCATED E OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA MAY BE TENDING TO
TEMPER THE NWD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT INTO NWRN MO. AT
2015Z...THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM EAST CENTRAL KS THROUGH BATES
COUNTY MO TO PETTIS COUNTY MO. THIS FRONT THEN EXTENDED GENERALLY
EWD ALONG AND N OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AS A WARM FRONT. THE WARM
SECTOR HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO VERY STRONGLY UNSTABLE WHILE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO 40-50 KT. THUS...SUPERCELLS
REMAIN LIKELY WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO ENHANCING THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL.
THE DISCRETE STORM LOCATED IN ERN ST CLAIR TO SWRN BENTON COUNTIES
MO APPEARS TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE THAT
EXTENDED FROM SWRN MO TO 15 E KSZL. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED AN
INCREASE IN EFFECTIVE SRH /200-300 M2 PER S2/ TO MAINTAIN A TORNADO
THREAT AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE HODOGRAPH PER THE 18Z SGF
SPECIAL SOUNDING.
..PETERS.. 04/17/2013
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...
LAT...LON 37139514 39749487 39969333 39989174 40199129 40119064
39589052 39528966 38998969 39019014 38769018 38099038
37769066 37779156 37559225 36819209 36759272 36529279
36489454 36839471 37139514
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL MO/EXTREME ERN KS/W CENTRAL IL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 114...
VALID 172038Z - 172215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 114 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WW 114 THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH ALL FACETS OF SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINING A THREAT.
DISCUSSION...MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH TRENDS IN
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ATTENDANT TO
TSTMS LOCATED E OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA MAY BE TENDING TO
TEMPER THE NWD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT INTO NWRN MO. AT
2015Z...THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM EAST CENTRAL KS THROUGH BATES
COUNTY MO TO PETTIS COUNTY MO. THIS FRONT THEN EXTENDED GENERALLY
EWD ALONG AND N OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AS A WARM FRONT. THE WARM
SECTOR HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO VERY STRONGLY UNSTABLE WHILE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO 40-50 KT. THUS...SUPERCELLS
REMAIN LIKELY WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO ENHANCING THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL.
THE DISCRETE STORM LOCATED IN ERN ST CLAIR TO SWRN BENTON COUNTIES
MO APPEARS TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE THAT
EXTENDED FROM SWRN MO TO 15 E KSZL. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED AN
INCREASE IN EFFECTIVE SRH /200-300 M2 PER S2/ TO MAINTAIN A TORNADO
THREAT AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE HODOGRAPH PER THE 18Z SGF
SPECIAL SOUNDING.
..PETERS.. 04/17/2013
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...
LAT...LON 37139514 39749487 39969333 39989174 40199129 40119064
39589052 39528966 38998969 39019014 38769018 38099038
37769066 37779156 37559225 36819209 36759272 36529279
36489454 36839471 37139514
0 likes
sorry im still getting used to reading radar -
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143867
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Another multi-day outbreak (April 17-18)
Impressive image of a forming funnel cloud in Oklahoma.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Very nice tornado warned supercell approaching Lawton OK, the first TOR warned cell of the day. Going to put down a 'nader soon probably.
Is anyone paying attention to the new Day 2 moderate risk? Wow, looks huge and maybe even more ominous than today (in terms of coverage)...I had a feeling about this Thursday and its already ramping up. Tomorrow could be the most significant severe weather day of 2013 so far.
Is anyone paying attention to the new Day 2 moderate risk? Wow, looks huge and maybe even more ominous than today (in terms of coverage)...I had a feeling about this Thursday and its already ramping up. Tomorrow could be the most significant severe weather day of 2013 so far.
0 likes
Re: Another multi-day outbreak (April 17-18)
Spotted tornado, 7 mi west of Lawton, OK. Was on the ground 1.5 minutes.
Source: news9.com live streaming
Source: news9.com live streaming
0 likes
Re: Another multi-day outbreak (April 17-18)
Northwest Lawton, OK, in direct path, per news9.com
EDIT: funnel and WC spotted. 1 mi west of the high school.
EDIT: funnel and WC spotted. 1 mi west of the high school.
0 likes
Re: Another multi-day outbreak (April 17-18)
Four tornado warnings at once now, starting to pick up quick.
TORNADO WARNING
OKC031-033-141-172330-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0004.130417T2250Z-130417T2330Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
550 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN TILLMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN COTTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 630 PM CDT
* AT 544 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MANITOU...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHATTANOOGA...MANITOU AND FAXON.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY
BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND WINDOWS.
&&
LAT...LON 3451 9900 3465 9854 3438 9849 3439 9900
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 257DEG 26KT 3445 9893
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
543 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
OKC141-172300-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130417T2300Z/
TILLMAN OK-
543 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL TILLMAN COUNTY...
AT 540 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF
FREDERICK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...GOLF BALL SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANITOU.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY
BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND WINDOWS.
&&
LAT...LON 3460 9892 3459 9885 3458 9884 3443 9880
3440 9906 3448 9910
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 241DEG 23KT 3446 9901
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
536 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
MOC137-172300-
/O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-130417T2300Z/
MONROE MO-
536 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONROE COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM
CDT...
AT 535 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PARIS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH.
HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.
IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PARIS AND STOUTSVILLE.
THIS WARNING INCLUDES UNION COVERED BRIDGE HISTORIC SITE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3966 9201 3965 9172 3936 9209 3940 9216
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 222DEG 42KT 3942 9204
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN
$$
CVKING
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WARNING
OKC031-137-172315-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0003.130417T2228Z-130417T2315Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
528 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN STEPHENS COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 615 PM CDT
* AT 526 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF LAWTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.
IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL
SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAWTON...ELGIN...STERLING...FORT SILL AND CENTRAL HIGH.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY
BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND WINDOWS.
&&
LAT...LON 3463 9860 3486 9814 3485 9809 3468 9809
3456 9800 3453 9858
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 243DEG 26KT 3458 9850
$
The heli is watching the Lawton storm on KFOR. I was 50 minutes early for the first TOR warning of the day, it was 5:34 PM EDT.
TORNADO WARNING
OKC031-033-141-172330-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0004.130417T2250Z-130417T2330Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
550 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN TILLMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN COTTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 630 PM CDT
* AT 544 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MANITOU...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHATTANOOGA...MANITOU AND FAXON.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY
BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND WINDOWS.
&&
LAT...LON 3451 9900 3465 9854 3438 9849 3439 9900
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 257DEG 26KT 3445 9893
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
543 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
OKC141-172300-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130417T2300Z/
TILLMAN OK-
543 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL TILLMAN COUNTY...
AT 540 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF
FREDERICK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...GOLF BALL SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANITOU.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY
BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND WINDOWS.
&&
LAT...LON 3460 9892 3459 9885 3458 9884 3443 9880
3440 9906 3448 9910
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 241DEG 23KT 3446 9901
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
536 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
MOC137-172300-
/O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-130417T2300Z/
MONROE MO-
536 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONROE COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM
CDT...
AT 535 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PARIS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH.
HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.
IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PARIS AND STOUTSVILLE.
THIS WARNING INCLUDES UNION COVERED BRIDGE HISTORIC SITE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3966 9201 3965 9172 3936 9209 3940 9216
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 222DEG 42KT 3942 9204
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN
$$
CVKING
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WARNING
OKC031-137-172315-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0003.130417T2228Z-130417T2315Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
528 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN STEPHENS COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 615 PM CDT
* AT 526 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF LAWTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.
IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL
SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAWTON...ELGIN...STERLING...FORT SILL AND CENTRAL HIGH.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY
BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND WINDOWS.
&&
LAT...LON 3463 9860 3486 9814 3485 9809 3468 9809
3456 9800 3453 9858
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 243DEG 26KT 3458 9850
$
The heli is watching the Lawton storm on KFOR. I was 50 minutes early for the first TOR warning of the day, it was 5:34 PM EDT.
0 likes
-
WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0502
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0602 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN KS...A LARGE PART OF MO...W-CNTRL
IL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 114...117...
VALID 172302Z - 180030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 114...117...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE SVR THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS REMAINING VALID PORTIONS
OF WW114 AND WW117.
DISCUSSION...THE GREATEST SVR THREAT IN THE NEAR-TERM WILL EXIST
INVOF AN OUTFLOW-REINFORCED FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM N SIDES OF THE
ST LOUIS AREA TO NEAR COLUMBIA MO...AND THAT ARCS FARTHER W INTO
NERN KS. A CLUSTER OF STORMS OCCASIONALLY EXHIBITING LOW/MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS OVER CNTRL MO WILL ADVANCE NEWD/ENEWD ACROSS PARTS OF
E-CNTRL MO DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A RAOB TAKEN AROUND 2040Z
FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI AT COLUMBIA INDICATES THAT A VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS RESIDES S OF THE OUTFLOW/FRONT...AND STORMS THAT
INGEST THIS AIR WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTENSE. WITH 225-275 M2/S2 OF
LOW-LEVEL SRH AND STRONG 0-6-KM SHEAR DEPICTED BY THE RAOB...A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES MAY
ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...WITH LSX WSR-88D BASE DATA
SUGGESTING THE BOUNDARY OOZING SWD...AND DEEP SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED
BOUNDARY-PARALLEL...OR WITH A SLIGHT SLY COMPONENT...THIS CONVECTION
MAY HAVE A TENDENCY OF BECOMING UNDERCUT BY SHALLOW COLD AIR
FOLLOWED BY A LESSENING OF THE SVR WIND/TORNADO THREAT.
ELSEWHERE...THE LEADING EDGE OF A POLAR AIR MASS CONTINUES SHIFTING
EWD ACROSS ERN KS. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
CONVECTIVE TOWERS DEEPENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
PARTS OF ERN KS INTO FAR WRN MO. STORMS THAT EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ALL SVR MODES...WHILE
ACTIVITY FARTHER W MAY POSE A MARGINAL SVR HAIL.
..COHEN.. 04/17/2013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0602 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN KS...A LARGE PART OF MO...W-CNTRL
IL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 114...117...
VALID 172302Z - 180030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 114...117...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE SVR THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS REMAINING VALID PORTIONS
OF WW114 AND WW117.
DISCUSSION...THE GREATEST SVR THREAT IN THE NEAR-TERM WILL EXIST
INVOF AN OUTFLOW-REINFORCED FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM N SIDES OF THE
ST LOUIS AREA TO NEAR COLUMBIA MO...AND THAT ARCS FARTHER W INTO
NERN KS. A CLUSTER OF STORMS OCCASIONALLY EXHIBITING LOW/MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS OVER CNTRL MO WILL ADVANCE NEWD/ENEWD ACROSS PARTS OF
E-CNTRL MO DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A RAOB TAKEN AROUND 2040Z
FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI AT COLUMBIA INDICATES THAT A VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS RESIDES S OF THE OUTFLOW/FRONT...AND STORMS THAT
INGEST THIS AIR WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTENSE. WITH 225-275 M2/S2 OF
LOW-LEVEL SRH AND STRONG 0-6-KM SHEAR DEPICTED BY THE RAOB...A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES MAY
ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...WITH LSX WSR-88D BASE DATA
SUGGESTING THE BOUNDARY OOZING SWD...AND DEEP SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED
BOUNDARY-PARALLEL...OR WITH A SLIGHT SLY COMPONENT...THIS CONVECTION
MAY HAVE A TENDENCY OF BECOMING UNDERCUT BY SHALLOW COLD AIR
FOLLOWED BY A LESSENING OF THE SVR WIND/TORNADO THREAT.
ELSEWHERE...THE LEADING EDGE OF A POLAR AIR MASS CONTINUES SHIFTING
EWD ACROSS ERN KS. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
CONVECTIVE TOWERS DEEPENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
PARTS OF ERN KS INTO FAR WRN MO. STORMS THAT EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ALL SVR MODES...WHILE
ACTIVITY FARTHER W MAY POSE A MARGINAL SVR HAIL.
..COHEN.. 04/17/2013
0 likes
Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 62 guests