Texas Fall-2014

[Portastorm]

I dont trust the GFS depicting a strong storm in the gulf at something that doesnt yet exist. Strong suppressive kelvin wave isn't favorable. It's peak season now and look at the satellite images, basin is being squashed by sinking air. However with fronts coming down quick spinups can happen along these boundaries.

I wouldn't focus on any specific GFS but the general signals. Also, as our friend srainhoutx mentions on the KHOU forum, there is some suggestion that a convectively coupled Kelvin wave along with favorable MJO would enhance what we are seeing in the GFS and Euro ensembles about generally lower surface pressures in the Western Gulf and Carribbean.

We are currently in the strongest supressive kelvin wave of the Atlantic season and will persist for at least another week. Hints are showing another suppressive phase continuing. EPAC is where supression effects are less.

Don't mean to belabor a point but you're referring to a suppresive Kelvin wave which is impacting the Atlantic between Africa and the islands. It is not impacting the area of the western Caribbean and western Gulf. And that is my point ... THAT is the area to watch.

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/cckwmjo.html

[Ntxw]

look at the chart below the link Porta. Reds and yellows near 60W building and to its immediate west. That is continuing surpressed KW.

[srainhoutx]

:uarrow: look at the chart below the link Porta. Reds and yellows near 60W building and to its immediate west. That is continuing surpressed KW.

Look further W in the Pacific. That is another cckw advancing Eastward.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: look at the chart below the link Porta. Reds and yellows near 60W building and to its immediate west. That is continuing surpressed KW.

Look further W in the Pacific. That is another cckw advancing Eastward.

Yes but that is going even further out. Im not arguing no development, Im just saying within reasonable time frame its not likely to happen. Unless youre talking beyond 7-10 days which by that time most of our hairs will be pulled out waiting for Atlantic rains.

[srainhoutx]

:uarrow: look at the chart below the link Porta. Reds and yellows near 60W building and to its immediate west. That is continuing surpressed KW.

Look further W in the Pacific. That is another cckw advancing Eastward.

Yes but that is going even further out. Im not arguing no development, Im just saying within reasonable time frame its not likely to happen. Unless youre talking beyond 7-10 days which by that time most of our hairs will be pulled out waiting for Atlantic rains.

It's currently raining across Central and SE Texas. I know you folks across N Texas are getting antsy, but your chance will likely come next week as that frontal boundary sags S. Patience grasshopper...

[Ntxw]

I do like frontal passage with Norbert remnants injected rains next week. But I remain skeptical on gulf system development until I see it to help Texas.

[Tireman4]

I do like frontal passage with Norbert remnants injected rains next week. But I remain skeptical on gulf system development until I see it to help Texas.

I vote with NTxw. I want the front. Ehh on the storm.

[Portastorm]

I do like frontal passage with Norbert remnants injected rains next week. But I remain skeptical on gulf system development until I see it to help Texas.

I vote with NTxw. I want the front. Ehh on the storm.

You don't get a vote. Stay out of this, you!

J/K Tireman.

Let's see what happens and we can agree that we disagree.

[weatherdude1108]

Pouring rain here at work and windy! Branches coming off of trees. Feels great! Hope my house gets it!

[South Texas Storms]

Pouring rain here at work and windy! Branches coming off of trees. Feels great! Hope my house gets it!

Same here! My co-workers called me to the window to show me! Pretty awesome sight! Tropical downpour!

[weatherdude1108]

Pouring rain here at work and windy! Branches coming off of trees. Feels great! Hope my house gets it!

Same here! My co-workers called me to the window to show me! Pretty awesome sight! Tropical downpour!

Here too! I don't have a window, but heard the wind outside the walls of my office. I went outside to walk around to see if I could see it come. I actually got caught in it while I was walking (a little on purpose). My umbrella wouldn't cooperate in the 40-50mph winds, and it started raining heavily, so I decided to head back to the building, half-soaked. Went to check someone else's office who had a window, and other people were looking out, mesmerized. It reminded me a lot of a tropical downpour in Houston. In the 70s now at 3:30pm. Hope this keeps up, but not sure if this round stabilized the atmosphere for the rest of the day to where it won't recover to get some more. I'm thankful for every little bit!

[Ntxw]

Regardless of voting! One thing we all can agree, once past the rest of this week we can all expect changes in weather for the better!

[Portastorm]

Regardless of voting! One thing we all can agree, once past the rest of this week we can all expect changes in weather for the better!

Absolutely! Big changes coming later next week.

And by the way, it's fine and dandy to disagree with folks here as long as it's done respectfully. That's what S2K is all about, (hopefully) a helpful, educational, enlightening, and active forum where weather enthusiasts can talk weather and debate weather and learn from each other in the process.

[ndale]

Pouring rain here at work and windy! Branches coming off of trees. Feels great! Hope my house gets it!

Same here! My co-workers called me to the window to show me! Pretty awesome sight! Tropical downpour!

Got a couple of strong wind gusts here, otherwise nothing, totally missed the rain.

[Ntxw]

EURO is plunging (still) a very large, cool Polar air mass that is currently sitting in NW Canada. We're talking very deep anomalous cool into the country right down the Great Plains. I know we've started guessing on the first cold front of the season but it looks like late next week is it. And there is a train of EPAC systems on the model to boot off the west coast of MX. Little lost in translation, while there is a deep trof, the colder air is actually accompanied by a 1030mb + high from the far north. Little unusual this time of year. Gives you a little memory laps of last winter.





CFSv2, GEFS, EURO ENS all do the same thing. The air mass is there, question is what kind of moisture will accompany it. All models agree -EPO persists.

[Tireman4]

I do like frontal passage with Norbert remnants injected rains next week. But I remain skeptical on gulf system development until I see it to help Texas.

I vote with NTxw. I want the front. Ehh on the storm.

You don't get a vote. Stay out of this, you!

J/K Tireman.

Let's see what happens and we can agree that we disagree.

Hey man, it is my weather too. You don't get to hog it all. Sheesh. LOL....LOL

[Ntxw]

Hey man, it is my weather too. You don't get to hog it all. Sheesh. LOL....LOL

And yes, the ECMWF slips the front past Houston, showering you with 70s to wxman57's discontent. At least at the very end of the run or maybe it's just a mirage and is repelled when it arrives in Humble.

[Tireman4]

You know, that woukd be just my luck. Ughh

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like my house got 0.3 inches this afternoon. 0.2 on Tuesday. A half inch last Tuesday. One inch in a little over a week. I will take it.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Hey man, it is my weather too. You don't get to hog it all. Sheesh. LOL....LOL

And yes, the ECMWF slips the front past Houston, showering you with 70s to wxman57's discontent. At least at the very end of the run or maybe it's just a mirage and is repelled when it arrives in Humble.

Surely even the great heat miser can appreciate high temps in the 70s! It is my definition of perfection.