Texas Summer 2016

[weatherdude1108]

On my way up to DFW this morning (10ish), I saw a twister! Well, it was an area of mowed grass that rotated counterclockwise with the heating, similar to a dust devil, but with grass. A grass devil! It formed fast, then went into the woods. It was between Waxahachie abd south Dallas. Coolest thing!

[Ntxw]

Low to mid 90s next few days. Weather stays boring until late in the period with rain chances return on and off. Colin seems to have scoured the gulf and left us with subsidence for awhile.

[Brent]

Low to mid 90s next few days. Weather stays boring until late in the period with rain chances return on and off. Colin seems to have scoured the gulf and left us with subsidence for awhile.

This place was beginning to look like a ghost town. Lol.

It's really amazing how fast the pattern can flip around here.

[Tejas89]

This is about the time the spigot shut off last year... In a big way.

Toward the end of next week looks like "Texas summer" will have arrived.

[1900hurricane]

IAH finally hit 90*F for the first time this year.

[Tireman4]

331
FXUS64 KHGX 101114
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
614 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.AVIATION...
Outside of some patchy MVFR fog near CLL/LBX/CXO dissipating by
mid-morning, expect VFR conditions to prevail for all terminals
through the TAF period. Streamer showers along the coast early
this morning are expected to spread inland by late morning with
daytime heating. A mid-level weakness will shift east of the
region through the day, but will help provide enough lift as it
does for isolated thunderstorm development near
CXO/IAH/HOU/SGR/LBX by mid-afternoon. Have included a VCTS mention
for these sites with TEMPO groups for thunder possibly needed in
later TAFs. Stronger cells will be capable of brief heavy rain
leading to MVFR/IFR visibilities and ceilings as well as gusty
winds. Expect any convection that develops to dissipate with loss
of heating later this evening. Similar to this morning, streamer
showers are expected to develop near GLS toward the end of the TAF
period.

Otherwise, light and variable to light and northeasterly winds
are expected to veer to the southeast by mid-morning and increase
to 8-11 knots. Light and variable winds are expected again
overnight. Some stronger gusts (around 20 knots or less) are
possible from mixing during peak heating, but will not include a
gust group as gusts should remain within 10 knots.

Huffman

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Ongoing fcst is in good shape and just making mostly insignificant
tweaks to the package this morning. As is somewhat typical this
time of year, we`re starting to see some echos on radar popping up
offshore and near the coast. Suspect this will continue for the
next several hours...then eventually spread inland late in the
morning and afternoon hours with daytime heating. Most parameters
would support decent coverage with PW`s between 1.8-2.0",
weak/breakable capping, convective temps ~87F, etc. But limiting
factor might be a somewhat confluent flow aloft. Models are in all
different camps regarding coverage but think current 20-40% (with
higher pops in S/SE zones) will probably be sufficient. Had some
reports of funnels & waterspouts yday and with similar tropical/light
flow regime in place wouldn`t be all that surprised if a few more
are observed this morning.

Sat-Mon wx is pretty much rinse/repeat of todays. Slight
variations in moisture levels, heating & triggers will cause some
fluctuations in coverage. At this time, guidance is suggesting
Sunday might be wetter of all the days and next shift may need to
bump pops up with any continued future model consistency.

Should see diminishing rain chances & slightly warmer temps in
the mid-late work week wx period as ridging in the vicinity takes
shape. Precip chances then take an upward turn next weekend as a
strange/unusual pattern takes shape. Medium range solns are in
decent agreement taking the base of the trof now about 700 miles
west of southern California across the Rockies and toward the
Great Lakes by Thurs. Then it takes a southward turn, cuts off and
begins retrograding to the SW. How far SW is in question and is
currently beyond the scope of the 7-day period with this package. 47

MARINE...
Streamer showers (and possibly a thunderstorm or two) developing
across the coastal waters early this morning should persist through
midday. Expect the development of scattered showers and
thunderstorms during the late night into morning hours through the
beginning of next week, with locally enhanced winds and waves in the
vicinity of stronger cells.

Tide levels are expected to remain around 1-1.5 ft above normal
around the bays through the weekend as flood waters continue to
drain into the Gulf. Otherwise, light to occasionally moderate
onshore flow will persist over the next several days. Winds may
approach caution criteria late Tuesday into Wednesday as a storm
system develops over the High Plains.

Huffman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 74 89 74 88 / 30 10 30 10 40
Houston (IAH) 89 73 89 75 89 / 40 10 40 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 87 79 87 79 86 / 30 20 30 20 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...47
Aviation/Marine...14

[gboudx]

Neat stuff from DFW NWS:

[JDawg512]

Looks like the biggest thing to keep an eye on is what some of the models are showing with that trough of low pressure retrograding into Texas. Will it come far enough to increase our rain chances here in Austin? Who knows but there isn't much else going on so will be interesting to follow the progression of the models.

[Ntxw]

Some scattered thunderstorms popped up, got a decent downpour here. Ah yes, summer showers.

[Ntxw]

I think the HRRR has lost it's mind with a huge cluster of slow moving thunderstorms tonight into tomorrow evening dumping copious rains in N and NE Texas. NAM has a bullseye nearby but small. So maybe something small scale? Seems a little crazy though.

[DonWrk]

Flooding ongoing in Oklahoma. Texoma should be on a rapid rise.

[Rgv20]

Well this afternoon discussion out of NWS in Brownsville got me out of hiding! We shall see how things evolve the next couple of days!

Though just beyond the scope of the long-term, the latest GFS and
ECMWF are showing signs of moving a fairly significant surface
low/tropical wave over the western gulf early next week. As far
as the GFS goes, today`s placement of the low over the western
Gulf early next week is a departure well to the southwest of
where this model was showing this feature yesterday. On the ECMWF
side of things, the placement of the feature over the western Gulf
is a noteable northward departure from the model`s previous run.
Either way, confidence is growng in this model solution as both
the GFS and ECMWF now bring it toward/near our neighborhood. If
the feature actually develops even somewhat similarly to today`s
models, it could lead to a noteable heavy rain event for deep
south Texas around the middle of next week.

[gpsnowman]

Nice little downpour with some thunder and lightning currently in Irving. Temp dropped a few degrees in the process.

Edit: This cluster of storms means business. Just had another round here in Irving with much heavier precip and wind. Nice lightning as well.

[Brent]

These storms are pretty legit... decent wind, the power even blinked for a second

[gboudx]

I was about to use the sprinklers. Cancel.

[Brent]

I was about to use the sprinklers. Cancel.

Heh. My co-worker washed his truck... I told him he might want to wait earlier.

[1900hurricane]

Storms are firing off the same weak and slow moving disturbance that dropped copious amounts of rain in Oklahoma last night. Some notable totals are already being estimated.

[Ntxw]

Complex coming out of Okla and NW Tx heading for DFW. Lets see if it holds together

[WeatherNewbie]

Holy hell that is some wind...

[Ntxw]

DFW is 3.60" for the month thus far which is very close to normal for all of June's average. Unless the faucet shuts off completely June will likely end up above normal, along with April and May. We'll have one more opportunity tonight into early tomorrow for another cluster of storms to roll south from the NW if it survives then the heat cranks up a bit. The coming high pressure dome will be a doozy but the epicenter will be in the southwest desert states. 600dm upper ridge is pretty powerful, probably one of the strongest on the planet this coming week. Texas wil be on the eastern edge so we'll push upper 90s. If not for the wet soils we would crack 100+ easily. The northern and central plains (Kansas on north) will see plenty of 100s. For us it will be typical summer heat, for the rest of the country it's going to be a heat wave.

Late in the period the ridge will bridge above us and move over to the east coast, which puts us in favorable flow from the gulf for more rain opportunities at least the way it looks now from a distance.