Severe Weather Potential Friday the 13th and MLK Day?

[wxmann_91]

You know, way OT here, but the weird thing was that the SPC skipped WW 15. When was the last time they accidently skipped a watch?

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW EMBEDDED JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH SRN PLNS UPPER TROUGH NOW ENTERING NE TX. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION AND POSSIBLY SWD EXTENSION OF EXISTING STORMS/SUPERCELLS BOTH ALONG COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE NOW CROSSING AR/LA. WHILE DEEP DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY INCREASE WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS MS/LA TO THE GULF CST...STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY TRACK A BIT FARTHER N NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR. SPECIAL NOTE...WATCH NUMBER 15 WAS ACCIDENTLY SKIPPED.

Another note, I just noticed the line about weaker forcing near the Gulf Coast, this reduces the derecho possibility to near naught. But the worrisome thing is with the reduced lift more discrete supercells could form.

[mike815]

hmmm... thanks for that update that would be very interesting.

[WaitingForSiren]

The line appears to be splitting up into clusters of cells in southern Mississippi. I think there is a threat of isolated wind reports, marginal hail and maybe a few tornadoes across southern alabama, georgia and the florida panhandle.

[mike815]

yeah well see im still somewhat excited melb is really on this and i could be under a watch this afternoon.

[Weatherfreak14]

Here in sc it is a mild morning annd realy humid. I look to see some huge storms in here later this eve.

[mike815]

yeah u might get some nasty waether there later in the evening definetly

[WaitingForSiren]

Right now it looks like SC will be spared. The storms in southern Mississippi are all that is really producing anything marginally severe, and those are moving due east and a little southeast. If theres any severe weatehr today, it will be in that region.

[Brent]

I dunno, looks like a bust is going down to me. Total bust.

Yep... it's just getting to me now. Heavy rain mostly. Only a couple of distant rumbles of thunder.

[Skywatch_NC]

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1010 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-132100-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON...
WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...
HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...
NASHVILLE...ROCKY MOUNT...LEXINGTON...ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO...
RALEIGH...SMITHFIELD...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY...
SOUTHERNPINES...SANFORD...LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...
ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON
1010 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...

A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE LINE WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ONCE AGAIN AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE PIEDMONT AROUND SUNSET.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT UNUSUALLY WARM AND MOIST AIR FOR MID WINTER ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES EAST OFF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS EVENING... A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH ALL OF THE REGION.

A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT... COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. THIS IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM WADESBORO TO SOUTHERN PINES... RALEIGH AND WARRENTON.

THE PRIMARY THREAT OR WEATHER HAZARD IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR MASS... WHICH SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 11 PM AND 200 AM... ENDING THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT THREATENING WEATHER OF ANY KIND TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ANOTHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO UPDATE THIS INFORMATION AROUND 400 PM.

[Brent]

15-20 homes destroyed in Conecuh County, Alabama... 1 fatality. Apparent tornado.

[Brent]

1041 AM TORNADO BAKER 30.80N 86.68W
01/13/2006 OKALOOSA FL EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 15 INJ *** 10 TO 15 STUDENTS WITH MINOR
INJURIES...ALSO HOMES DAMAGED ALONG WITH DAMAGE AT BAKER
SCHOOL COMPLEX. AUTOS DAMAGED ON SCHOOL PROPERTY. SCHOOL
OFFICIALS HEARD WARNING ON NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND MOVED
STUDENTS TO PROTECTIVE AREA.

[brandybugg4180]

So far here in the midlands of SC all weve had is some rain and a few rumbles of thunder. Another line is in the process of moving in from GA. I hope the weather doesnt get too bad..im scared of severe storms because I live in a mobile home.

[mike815]

thats terrible to hear someone died from this. looks like nothing much for me now oh well just not too many chances in fl so far this winter i hope i still get something.

[mike815]

storms trying to fire in my part of fl now.

[mike815]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
442 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

FLZ067-068-132230-
PALM BEACH EASTERN-PALM BEACH WESTERN-
442 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

AT 439 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WELLINGTON...OR 16 MILES
WEST OF LAKE WORTH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

EXPECT FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...PEA-SIZED HAIL...
AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED IF THIS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STRENGTHENS.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

[mike815]

storms are really exploding here now

[mike815]

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH OVER
SOUTHEASTERN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...ST. LUCIE COUNTY...

AT 448 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS 20 MILES WEST OF SAINT
LUCIE WEST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. RADAR ALSO INDICATED
ROTATION IN THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THIS STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE
FUNNEL CLOUDS.

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

$$

RW

[mike815]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
511 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

FLZ018-019-028-029-034-GAZ129>131-146>148-158>161-140200-
BEN HILL-BERRIEN-BROOKS-COLQUITT-COOK-DIXIE-IRWIN-JEFFERSON-
LAFAYETTE-LANIER-LOWNDES-MADISON-TAYLOR-THOMAS-TIFT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ADEL...CROSS CITY...FITZGERALD...
LAKELAND...MADISON...MAYO...MONTICELLO...MOULTRIE...NASHVILLE...
OCILLA...PERRY...QUITMAN...THOMASVILLE...TIFTON...VALDOSTA
511 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 18 CONTINUES UNTIL 9 PM EST FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

IN GEORGIA...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...COLQUITT...COOK...
IRWIN...LANIER...LOWNDES...THOMAS...TIFT.

IN FLORIDA...DIXIE...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...MADISON...TAYLOR.

$$

[mike815]

.NOW...
AT 540 PM...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WAS LOCATED OVER METRO
ORLANDO NORTH OF THE BEACHLINE EXPRESSWAY. THESE STORMS EXTENDED
INTO SOUTH SEMINOLE COUNTY SOUTH OF LAKE JESSUP. IN OTHER AREAS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED AROUND LAKE GEORGE IN NORTHWEST
VOLUSIA COUNTY...NEAR LAKE ASHBY IN CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY...AND
ALONG THE INDIAN RIVER/SAINT LUCIE COUNTY LINE WEST OF I-95.
GENERAL MOVEMENT WAS AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

THROUGH 700 PM...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDESPREAD...BUT DUE TO INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS...A
FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE MAIN
HAZARD WITH THESE EVENING STORMS SHOULD BE OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AS WELL.

$$

BRAGAW

[mike815]

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST...

A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COASTS BY MIDNIGHT.

SEVERAL LINES AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRECEDE THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. THE
RAPID MOVEMENT EAST OF THESE LINES SUGGESTS THAT ANY STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG
SHEAR...OR STRONG CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION THROUGHOUT
THE ATMOSPHERE...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
TORNADOES. THUS THE TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH MIDNIGHT
EST.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL IN A FEW OF THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

ALL PEOPLE ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION AND
FORECASTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON ON THIS
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE. THIS CAN BE DONE THROUGH NOAA
WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS...TV OR YOUR LOCAL NEWS SOURCE. ALWAYS
REMEMBER TO KEEP YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN ALERT MODE WHENEVER
SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTER GROUPS NEED TO REMAIN
ON THE ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER OCCUR...AFTER YOU ARE IN A SAFE LOCATION...PLEASE RELAY
THE INFORMATION TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON
TOLL FREE AT 1-888-383-2024. THANK YOU.

$$

33





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
400 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-140100-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON...
WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...
HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...
NASHVILLE...ROCKY MOUNT...LEXINGTON...ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO...
RALEIGH...SMITHFIELD...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY...
SOUTHERN PINES...SANFORD...LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...
ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON
400 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING...

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF
THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. DUE TO THE
STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS...A FEW OF THE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT... COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. THIS IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM WADESBORO TO SOUTHERN PINES...RALEIGH
AND WARRENTON.

WHILE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WHICH SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN
DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BEFORE 1 AM EST...ENDING THE
THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING. SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT THREATENING WEATHER OF ANY KIND TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OR TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

$$