SPC issues slight risk of severe wx for South/Southeast Tx

[Extremeweatherguy]

A blip in Dewitt County...

Yeah, I see that too. Hopefully this is a start to some northward progression.

[Extremeweatherguy]

clouds are really starting to billow outside now...I am betting on storms developing within 30 minutes

[Stratosphere747]

Very nasty to the west, and developing quite rapidly.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/analysis.1kmvis.html

[jasons2k]

there are some very impressive storms down to our SW right now with 2-3 tornado warnings out and it is as hot and humid as can be up here in Houston. When will we the storms!? I have been waiting for 3 hours so far.

I feel your pain! You can thank the cap for that. Hopefully we will bust through soon.

[Johnny]

Yep, clouds are really starting to bubble here in central Montgomery County. I had a lightning striek out of a rain free cloud base about 10 minutes ago behing the house. Just a matter of time.

[jasons2k]

It looks like the front is now on top of Conroe.

[Extremeweatherguy]

All I know is that in 1 1/2 hours...we lose the sunshine.

[Extremeweatherguy]

this is absolutely unbelievable. I hope this is not going to be a bust.

[Extremeweatherguy]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 252346
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
646 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2006

.UPDATE...
DECIDED TO UPDATE THE ZONE FORECAST/GRIDS TO LOWER POPS THIS
EVENING GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS. STILL MAINTAINED
A LOW CHC POP UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. AT SOME POINT LATE THIS
EVENING OR JUST AFT MIDNIGHT EXPECT THE AREA TO BE IN A
MORE PREFERRED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT THAT IS AIDING TSTM DEVELOPMENT W/SW OF THE AREA SHIFTS NE
OVER SE TX. SO...LIKELY POPS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR LATER TONIGHT.
SVR TSTM THREAT REMAINS TONIGHT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
HAIL. STORMS WELL NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT ARE PRODUCING SVR HAIL
ACROSS N TX GIVEN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. CF IS NEAR A LFK TO
CONROE TO COLUMBUS LINE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
SE MOVEMENT REACHING THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. 33

[DJJordan]

Well that's encouraging even though I noticed the wording in the forecast calls for a 60% of "Isolated" T-storms .... some possibly severe ......

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just hope we at least get some rain out of this! By this point, I was already expecting at least 1-3 supercells formed within the Houston NWS warning area.

[Extremeweatherguy]

storms are starting to fire north of victoria!

[jasons2k]

Yeah, I hope so too. The front is practically on top of me now.

[Extremeweatherguy]

the front is on me now too. I just got a windshift to north and strong breezes are starting to come in. The good news is that storms should still be able to form behind the front. One example is in north Texas where there have been severe hail reports today. I would say at this point it could go either way. One option would be for supercells to form and give us quite a night, and another option would be no rain what so ever; and a calm night.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is some good news:



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0658
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 249...

VALID 260031Z - 260200Z

SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SWRN
PORTION OF WATCH. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY FURTHER NEWD IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONTINUE WW.

AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL TX WITH
MLCAPES OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG /PER 00Z CRP SOUNDING/. SUPERCELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO THRIVE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM AROUND KARNES TO JIM
WELLS COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO THE W OF THESE AREAS
SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO A MORE MULTICELLULAR MODE MAY OCCUR AFTER
DARK. IMPRESSIVE SWD MOVING SUPERCELL ACROSS SRN DUVAL COUNTY WOULD
APPEAR TO HAVE SOME TORNADIC POTENTIAL GIVEN MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...A
VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD PER 00Z CRP SOUNDING AND INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL TEND TO MITIGATE THIS THREAT.

FURTHER NE...TIMING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
00Z LCH SOUNDING AND MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE AREA IS
UNCAPPED. CELLS ARE BEGINNING TO INITIATE IN LAVACA COUNTY AND
ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. 18Z NAM-WRF GUIDANCE INDICATED THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNSTABLE WITH AROUND 2500 J/KG MLCAPE PER 00Z LCH
SOUNDING. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT.

[Extremeweatherguy]

In Brenham, they still have a dewpoint of 63F and they have been behind the front for nearly 5 hours. As long as the dewpoint stays above 60F (which should still be for another good 5-8 hrs.), then we should have a good shot at some storms; though the majority of them may stay to our SE (depending on the time of development and position of the front).

[cheezyWXguy]

looks like yall maybe getting ur severe weather after all...yall are lucky...I was supposed to get at least a little bit last night but nothing happened...o well...I may have another chance later this week

[Extremeweatherguy]

HOLY!!! I just got 40-50mph gusts at my house (out of nowhere) and it bent one of the trees over! Now there is LIGHTNING to my south and rain is starting to fall!

[Extremeweatherguy]

the bad thing is that the storms are ever so slightly to my ESE and if they are moving east...I may miss out on the good stuff!

[jasons2k]

Yep, they are FINALLY going up now! And JUST to my E and S. Grrrrrrrr!!!!! If only this had started an hour ago!!! At least we may have more on the way.....