Southeast, Texas Under the Gun Tonight....

[Johnny]

I can't get it either??

[Johnny]

I can't get it either??

[jasons2k]

As the convection enters eastern Montgomery County...it seems to weaken. That might change as we go into the evening and overnight hours.

Still quite a bit of dry air out there...

It's not dry it's just stable.

[jasons2k]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
234 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006

...ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

ANOTHER...IN A LONG LIST OF MEMORABLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS OCCURRED EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE AREAS HARDEST HIT INCLUDE
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS...CHAMBERS AND SOUTHERN LIBERTY COUNTIES.
BELOW IS A PARTIAL LIST OF SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS
RECEIVED. MUCH OF THE RAIN WHICH FELL OVER HARRIS COUNTY OCCURRED
BETWEEN 300 AM AND 700 AM MONDAY MORNING.

LOCATION RAINFALL TOTAL

LIBERTY 11.70
HOUSTON (SIMS BAYOU AT TELEPHONE RD) 10.71
HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT (SOUTHEAST SIDE) 9.29
HOUSTON IDYLWOOD (BRAYS BAYOU AT LAWNDALE) 7.87
HOUSTON (BUFFALO BAYOU AT MILAM) 7.28
ANAHUAC (CHAMBERS COUNTY) 5.71
HOUSTON (LINDALE PARK) 4.17
DICKINSON (GALVESTON COUNTY) 4.10
HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT 2.67
GALVESTON 2.24
ANGLETON 1.11

$$

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Question is where will the core rains set up tonight? Models look to fast moving Upper Low southwest this evening.

[southerngale]

After moderate to heavy rain all night, today the rain has been mostly light with a few heavier showers here and there....at my house. NWS has upped tonight's chances and the Flood Watch has been extended but it seems like most of the heavier stuff is offshore. I know they're saying it should start wrapping back around and get us again with the heavier storms, but I can't help but have doubts. Maybe they're being extra cautious since we were all caught off guard with the flooding overnight and this morning. That would be a good thing....my poor friend had JUST finished Rita repairs and woke up at 5am to water coming into her house. The drought is over. We've had more than enough rain!!

[jasons2k]

Question is where will the core rains set up tonight? Models look to fast moving Upper Low southwest this evening.

I agree. It's been parked for most of the day over Western Liberty/Far NE Harris County and is ever so slightly drifting west. With all the rain tothe south in the GOM, it may take awhile for the core rains to get going....but when they do it looks like the Houston metro area will be in the bullseye.

[Johnny]

I haven't seen this posted yet. Oh, and sorry for the triple post. I got a little trigger happy I guess.lol

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1205 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-201215-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
1205 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN AROUND
THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HOUSTON AROUND HOBBY AIRPORT...HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
8 TO 11 INCHES OF RAINFALL. IF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH
RANGE FALLS ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS...SERIOUS AND POSSIBLE LIFE
THREATENING FLOODING COULD OCCUR IN LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS
AND ALSO IN AND AROUND AREA CREEKS AND BAYOUS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE WEST. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
FLOOD REPORTS ARE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SPOTTERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND NOT TRAVEL
INTO THE FLOODED AREAS.

[Johnny]

It's not dry it's just stable.

I agree. I don't see any dry air in the area.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-l.jpg

[Stratosphere747]

The dry air is there, just on the western side..

Ch 13 met had a good loop showing how it was inhibiting the storms once it began to come into contact.

It's just not flowing into the system.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am getting a pretty steady light rain right now.

[Extremeweatherguy]

If this Gulf moisture can be drawn up into Houston, than rain amounts over 12" tonight are not out of the question.

[Johnny]

That is some serious rain falling just offshore. I wonder what the hourly rainfall rates are in this area?

It looks like we got some stronger storms trying to push into eastern Montgomery County. Let's see if they hold together or fall apart.



http://www.click2weather.com/wxmap/971287/detail.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

That is some serious rain falling just offshore. I wonder what the hourly rainfall rates are in this area?

It looks like we got some stronger storms trying to push into eastern Montgomery County. Let's see if they hold together or fall apart.



http://www.click2weather.com/wxmap/971287/detail.html

wow. this radar shot makes the rain offshore look even more amazing!

[Johnny]

That's a heck of alot of rain!!

[jasons2k]

The radar is back up

Before it went out, the rainfall rates offshore were 2-4" an hour for most of the complex - at least from what I can remember.

[HouTXmetro]

OH OH storms are reorganizing and wrapping. Things might get interesting sooner than we thought.

[GalvestonDuck]

Now, y'all know if you want to head on down here to higher ground, we'll be happy to see ya. And we won't jam up the roads and slow you down to 3 mph.

Seriously, stay safe up there. You guys tend to flood more than we do (except when surge is involved, of course).

[jabman98]

She heard one of the mets (maybe Frank Billingsley from KPRC?) explain where the high and the low was and how the setup was similar to Allison. Anyone else see that?

I heard it - and yes, it was Frank. He has been really good about explaining things all day.

The wrapping seems really obvious on the radar. I feel like we've got our own little tropical inland system. It'll be interesting overnight and into tomorrow.

Here's a photo I took this morning - the bayou had crept over its banks and covered the road. The water has receded and the road is clear as of this evening. (Click thumbnail for full size.)

[KatDaddy]

What a rain event today with more to come. Looks very impressive on satellite. I expect core rains will develop later tonight and someone is going to get pounded.