NOLA area pm rush hour severe outbreak

[Ed Mahmoud]

Maybe HOU will get exciting weather Thursday after all, but if WRF is right, it is timed for the am commute, which has major drag potential for someone who drives from near Spring to the Galleria. Plus, no staring at the satellite like I sometimes do during breaks at work, to see if storms are erupting later during the day.

750 J/Kg CAPE and 35 m/s (about 70 knots) deep shear would support a few rambunctious storms.




Later in the day, looks like Louisiana to Alabama, maybe one hundred miles or so inland

[Ed Mahmoud]

Maybe HOU will get exciting weather Thursday after all, but if WRF is right, it is timed for the am commute, which has major drag potential for someone who drives from near Spring to the Galleria. Plus, no staring at the satellite like I sometimes do during breaks at work, to see if storms are erupting later during the day.

750 J/Kg CAPE and 35 m/s (about 70 knots) deep shear would support a few rambunctious storms.




Later in the day, looks like Louisiana to Alabama, maybe one hundred miles or so inland

Interesting, that CAPE must be most unstable CAPE, because checking both AccuWx PPV and Northern Illinois U skew-T generator, surface based CAPE in HOU area Thursday am is around 100 J/Kg, and there is a cooler stable layer just 400 to 500 meters in height. SRH about 450 J/Kg, so if any storms can, as they say in the SPC discussions, root in the boundary layer, the weather does get interesting.

[HarlequinBoy]

Looks like the winds have died down tonight. I was without power for a few hours this evening, but it wasn't more than a nuisance.

The damage across the Mid-South is similar to of an extensive straight-line wind event.. except the winds were not associated with thunderstorms.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Trained professional has similar idea as far as HOU area goes, from evening update NWS HGX AFD

snip

THURSDAY MORNING IS LOOKING INTERESTING. TREMENDOUS SHEAR COUPLED
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD YIELD A
ROUND OF STRONG STORMS MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z. 43

[HarlequinBoy]

I thought this was a bit unusual from earlier today.

NOTE...

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR DAMAGING
WINDS IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING AREA. IF LARGE HAIL IS DETERMINED
TO BE THE HAZARD...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ISSUED. THE HIGH
WIND WARNING WILL NOT AFFECT TORNADO WARNINGS.

It makes sense though.

[Brent]

WOW at the wind tonight. I got off easy here(power didn't even flick) but around 11:15 there was a 5-minute burst of some of the strongest winds I've seen outside of a hurricane. Huge roaring noise. Looks like we had around a 50 mph gust from the airport obs about 10 miles to my east. I'm a bit sheltered from the wind here too! It was much worse to my NW with hundreds if not thousands of trees down(60-70 mph gusts in spots). I bet there's some down around here too, I'll check when I'm out in the morning.

Very unusual to be so widespread considering there were no thunderstorms.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New SWODY1 holds out a small chance for some surface based action very late tonight around HOU

...ERN TX/LA...
SSWLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY OVER E TX AND LA AS
PRESSURES FALL OVER THE SRN PLNS AHEAD OF DEEPENING UPR TROUGH.
WHILE SHALLOW LAYER OF RESIDUAL POLAR AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT
THE SFC...CURRENT SATELLITE/GPS DATA SUGGEST THAT SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.25 INCHES/ WILL BE PRESENT ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER. COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE/WAA WITH STRENGTHENING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT LIKELY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME EML CAP AND
SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FROM
E CNTRL/NE TX AND THE UPR TX GULF CST INTO MUCH OF LA AND PERHAPS
SRN AR.

WITH MID-LEVEL SW FLOW REMAINING AOA 60 KTS...AMPLE CLOUD-LAYER
SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUSTAINED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS. CLOUD-LAYER
INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MODEST /AOB 750 J PER KG/. BUT
GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD AND QUALITY OF ELEVATED MOISTURE
RETURN...IT APPEARS THAT SOME RISK WILL EXIST FOR SVR HAIL.

FARTHER SE...POTENTIAL MAY ALSO DEVELOP FOR MORE NEARLY SFC-BASED
STORMS VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD ALONG THE CSTL PLN FROM GLS/HOU TO
NEAR BPT. GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS OVER THE NWRN GULF AND FACT THAT
UPR SYSTEM WILL STILL BE FAIRLY FAR TO THE W AT 12Z...ATTM EXPECT
THAT RESIDUAL NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER WILL PRECLUDE A RISK FOR
SFC-BASED STORMS/POSSIBLE TORNADOES. THIS IDEA WILL...HOWEVER...
HAVE TO BE REASSESSED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New 12Z WRF still shows an almost 500 meter thick cooler surface layer, but even with that, still has positive CAPE and a negative LI, and a TT of 54 suggests pretty decent 850 to 500 mb instability, and, of course, helicity of 500 J/Kg is nothing to sneeze at.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS has a less cold/stable layer beneath the frontal inversion, and darned steep mid-level lapse rates, for a very interesting forecast skew-T for IAH for morning drive time.

[Ed Mahmoud]

High clouds returning, and I'm seeing some accas out towards the Gulf.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New 0Z WRF still has about a 400 meter thick layer of cool, stable air near the surface, but darned impressive shear and good instability above the shallow inversion, could be an interesting AM rush in HOU.

[CrazyC83]

Death toll from yesterday up to 5: three from tornadoes in Indiana, two from straight-line winds in Arkansas...

[Ed Mahmoud]

SWODY1 through overnight hours has my house in a 2% tornado and 5% severe hail area

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CST WED JAN 30 2008

VALID TIME 310100Z - 311200Z

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... TORNADO ...

0.02 28259574 28969622 30049588 30459489 30459433 29929365
29319340
&&

... HAIL ...

0.05 28659506 28939641 30139794 30989771 32899688 33939522
33979379 32949304 31359304 29279398
&&

[Ed Mahmoud]

SEL9

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 29
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 AM CST THU JAN 31 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 550 AM UNTIL
100 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND STRENGTH IN
WAA ZONE INVOF NW GULF OF MEXICO SFC WAVE. OTHER STORMS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY FARTHER NW ALONG LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG TX PANHANDLE UPR VORT. VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF POLAR AIR NOW
OVER WW REGION EXPECTED TO ERODE STEADILY NWD THROUGH
MIDDAY...INCREASING CHANCES THAT STORMS IN THE NW GULF AND SE TX
WILL BECOME MORE NEARLY SFC-BASED AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP NE INTO LA.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD AND CONSIDERABLE SPEED/DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...RESULTING SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO
HIGH WIND AND HAIL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.


...CORFIDI

[Extremeweatherguy]

That line of storms is really starting to strengthen right now!

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/so ... e_loop.php

Based on this strengthening trend, I would expect a few warnings to start popping up soon.

[CrazyC83]

10% hatched tornado...could go up to a MDT later...

[Extremeweatherguy]

First warning of the morning issued up near Huntsville...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
650 AM CST THU JAN 31 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS

* UNTIL 715 AM CST

* AT 647 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTH OF HUNTSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RIVERSIDE...

STRONG WINDS MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES OR DAMAGE
BUILDINGS. TAKE COVER NOW!

THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE
PROPERTY DAMAGE OR SERIOUS INJURY. AVOID WINDOWS AND TAKE COVER NOW!

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[CrazyC83]

About an hour old:

SEL9

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 29
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 AM CST THU JAN 31 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 550 AM UNTIL
100 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND STRENGTH IN
WAA ZONE INVOF NW GULF OF MEXICO SFC WAVE. OTHER STORMS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY FARTHER NW ALONG LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG TX PANHANDLE UPR VORT. VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF POLAR AIR NOW
OVER WW REGION EXPECTED TO ERODE STEADILY NWD THROUGH
MIDDAY...INCREASING CHANCES THAT STORMS IN THE NW GULF AND SE TX
WILL BECOME MORE NEARLY SFC-BASED AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP NE INTO LA.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD AND CONSIDERABLE SPEED/DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...RESULTING SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO
HIGH WIND AND HAIL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.


...CORFIDI


SEL9

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 29
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 AM CST THU JAN 31 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 550 AM UNTIL
100 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND STRENGTH IN
WAA ZONE INVOF NW GULF OF MEXICO SFC WAVE. OTHER STORMS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY FARTHER NW ALONG LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG TX PANHANDLE UPR VORT. VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF POLAR AIR NOW
OVER WW REGION EXPECTED TO ERODE STEADILY NWD THROUGH
MIDDAY...INCREASING CHANCES THAT STORMS IN THE NW GULF AND SE TX
WILL BECOME MORE NEARLY SFC-BASED AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP NE INTO LA.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD AND CONSIDERABLE SPEED/DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...RESULTING SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO
HIGH WIND AND HAIL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.


...CORFIDI


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 311149
WOU9

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 29
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 AM CST THU JAN 31 2008

TORNADO WATCH 29 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-079-097-099-101-113-
115-311900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0029.080131T1150Z-080131T1900Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON
EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS
LAFAYETTE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY
ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION
VERNON


TXC039-071-157-167-199-201-239-241-245-291-321-339-351-361-373-
407-457-481-311900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0029.080131T1150Z-080131T1900Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRAZORIA CHAMBERS FORT BEND
GALVESTON HARDIN HARRIS
JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON
LIBERTY MATAGORDA MONTGOMERY
NEWTON ORANGE POLK
SAN JACINTO TYLER WHARTON


GMZ330-335-350-355-450-452-455-311900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0029.080131T1150Z-080131T1900Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

MATAGORDA BAY

GALVESTON BAY

COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL TX OUT 20
NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW9
WW 29 TORNADO LA TX CW 311150Z - 311900Z
AXIS..115 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
65NNE LCH/LAKE CHARLES LA/ - 35SE GLS/GALVESTON TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 100NM E/W /22SW AEX - 79SE IAH/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.

LAT...LON 30979086 28959244 28959623 30979473

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.


Watch 29 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

[CrazyC83]

Still SLGT...but an area of 5% hatched - how is that possible??? (10% chance for significant severe cannot happen when there is 5% chance of any severe)

SPC AC 311250

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 AM CST THU JAN 31 2008

VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE GULF CST
STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THR LWR 48 THROUGH
FRIDAY. 90-100 KT 500 MB JET STREAK ON SW SIDE OF STRONG TX
PANHANDLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH /PER VWP DATA/ SUGGESTS THAT SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES GENERALLY E/SE ACROSS THE SRN
PLNS TODAY...AND THEN ENE ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT REACHES THE EVV AREA BY 12Z
FRIDAY...WITH A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE CNTRL GULF
CST.

IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING UPR SYSTEM...MAIN SFC LOW NOW NEAR SPS
SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO AR LATER TODAY...BEFORE TURNING NE TO NEAR
PAH EARLY FRIDAY. OF POSSIBLE MORE SIGNIFICANCE SVR-WISE...WEAKNESS
IN PRESSURE FIELD NOW ALONG THE MIDDLE TX GULF CST NEAR HOU/GLS
SUGGESTS THAT A SEPARATE WAVE IS DEVELOPING ATTM INVOF SFC TRIPLE
POINT. THIS FEATURE WILL MARK LEADING EDGE OF RETURNING MARITIME
AIR MASS AND SHOULD TRACK GENERALLY ENE ACROSS SRN LA AND MS
TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT...AND CNTRL AL/NE GA LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.


...SE TX/SRN LA INTO MS...AL...GA AND NW FL...
SFC OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW SHALLOW FRONT MARKING
LEADING EDGE OF MARITIME AIR /WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S/
NOW EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF GLS ESE TO ABOUT 120 S OF BVE.
ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY WILL RETARD NWD ADVANCE OF BOUNDARY
INTO NRN PARTS OF LA/MS AND AL. BUT THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE
STEADILY N TO THE LA CST BY MID MORNING...AND CROSS SRN MS AND THE
WRN FL PANHANDLE BY AFTN. THE BOUNDARY MAY REACH CNTRL AL BY
EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED SFC WAVE NEARS MEI.

CONCURRENT ARRIVAL OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH STRENGTHENING
UVV AHEAD OF UPR TROUGH WILL CREATE AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS IN STRONGLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
OVER SE TX AND SRN LA THIS MORNING...AND SRN/CNTRL MS BY AFTN.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD /50+ KT DEEP WSW SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SRH
AOA 250 M2 PER S2/...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONG TORNADOES WITH
ANY DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS...IN ADDITION TO BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE
GREATEST NEAR TRACK OF SFC WAVE ACROSS SRN PARTS OF LA/MS AND
AL...WHERE MODEST SFC HEATING COULD ASSIST DESTABILIZATION.

THE SVR THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS PARTS OF AL...THE FL
PANHANDLE AND GA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. INCREASING UPR
DIFFLUENCE IN SE QUADRANT OF UPR SYSTEM AND WIDESPREAD INFLUX OF
MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT BY THAT TIME THE STORMS WILL HAVE EVOLVED INTO
AN EXTENSIVE SQLN. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO
DAMAGING WIND.

...SC/NC EARLY FRIDAY...
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD OVER THE SC/NC CSTL PLNS...ALONG AND S OF SHALLOW WEDGE
BOUNDARY LIKELY TO PERSIST ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SRN APLCNS.
WHILE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED...INFLUX OF MARITIME
AIR OFF THE WRN ATLANTIC AND WEAKLY CONFLUENT FLOW IN WARM SECTOR
SUGGEST THAT WIDELY SCTD SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SC/NC CST.
OTHER SHOWERS/STORMS COULD ALSO FORM INVOF WEDGE BOUNDARY OVER THE
SC MIDLANDS...JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM NE GA SFC WAVE. WHILE OVERALL
PROBABILITIES SHOULD REMAIN LOW...GIVEN STRONGLY-SHEARED LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IF
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS DO INDEED FORM.

...NE TX INTO LWR MS...LWR OH AND TN VLYS...
ON-GOING WAVES OF ELEVATED TSTMS NOW OVER E CNTRL/NE TX EXPECTED TO
SPREAD E ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY TODAY AND INTO THE LWR OH AND TN VLYS
BY EVENING AS ELEVATED MOISTURE INFLUX STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF
AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH. WHILE AMPLE CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT FOR SUPERCELLS...EVOLVING PATTERN AT UPR LEVELS SUGGESTS
THAT COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN W OF 850-700 MB MOIST AXIS.
THUS...WHILE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE MORE SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS...WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.

..CORFIDI.. 01/31/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1256Z (7:56AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Ed Mahmoud]

Severe warning for San Jacinto county.


Jacinto is Spanish for Hyacinth.

Hyacinth is the patron saint of those in danger of drowning.

That is the Polish saint.

Much earlier, another Saint Hyacinth was beheaded by the Roman emperor Gallienus.


St Hyacinth Roman Catholic Church (Parafia Swietego Jacka), serving the Polish-American community of Detroit