2011 SE TX/SW LA Weather: Nice weather next several days

[djmikey]

Pattern change ahead in SETX!!!! According to Larry Cosgrove and Hurricane IRENE!

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-hous ... st-22-2011

Let's PRAY!

[Flyinman]

Last night at 10:00 I commented to my wife how "nice" it felt outside. Then woke up this morning and it was 72!! Could not believe my eyes. Even though it was not long lived I was hoping this may signal the start of a change. After readin the last 2 posts maybe we will finally have some sort of break. While I would love cooler temps with rain, I will take either or at this point.

[Tireman4]

Last night at 10:00 I commented to my wife how "nice" it felt outside. Then woke up this morning and it was 72!! Could not believe my eyes. Even though it was not long lived I was hoping this may signal the start of a change. After readin the last 2 posts maybe we will finally have some sort of break. While I would love cooler temps with rain, I will take either or at this point.

It is coming. I know we have said this over and over, but it is coming...

[Shoshana]

How will the fact that Irene is going to be stronger than expected reflect on what people are saying about the hurricane shifting things around so we get some 'cooler' weather? And it seems like the hurricane is going a bit further east too.

[Flyinman]

Good question. I am seeing everything to the contrary. Sunday forecast to be 104 plus and no rain. It was very depressing to hear the local mets mention the fact Sat. and Sun, could reach 105 and perhaps hotter due to drier air pushed in from the NE from Irene.

[Shoshana]

The reason I ask is because in the past, hurricanes landing east of us made it hotter here. But I don't understand all the dynamics so ...

[vbhoutex]

What happens is the drier air brought in from the NE by Irene makes it easier for the air to heat up(drier air heats up faster). The only upside of it is that the mornings should be cooler for a few days.
Official today in Houston was 102 and our 33rd official day above 100f which stands as its' own record now vs 1980 at 32. It appears we will be shattering that record before we are done. High at my house was 102.7f while the weatherbug site nearest to me went to 102f. Rinse, wash, repeat... Oh wait, we are on water restrictions and it doesn't rain in the Houston desert.

[Shoshana]

I saw where this weekend will be the hottest yet in Austin. Joy.

We're on day 68 for 100+ (record is 69 from 1925) at Mabry and day 55 at Bergstrom (ties record set in 2009).

It was officially 105 at Mabry. I didn't even look at the temp at our house but it runs hotter.

Cooler mornings would be nice tho.

[djmikey]

I'm still likeing Larry's forecasts!! He still determined a change is coming!

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-hous ... st-23-2011

[Flyinman]

I see what Larry is looking at but the changes are 12 to 14 days away according to the models. Not sure how reliable these are that far out. 16 days out has a nice low in the Bay of Campeche approaching the Gulf:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _384.shtml

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Something to cool you folks:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igobuhdyeIk&feature=related[/youtube]

My bones ached just watching it and I got the shiveries (but I also have a nasty summer cold)

It'll come soon enough (all 8 long miserable months of it).

[Shoshana]

ERCOT in level 1 emergency; Consumers asked to conserve until 7 p.m. today

Austin, Aug. 23, 2011 -- The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, Inc. (ERCOT), system operator for the state’s bulk transmission grid, initiated Energy Emergency Alert Level 1 at 3:43 p.m. today because operating reserves dropped below 2,300 megawatts (MW). Capacity is expected to be tight over the peak today, and ERCOT operators are closely monitoring the situation.

[vbhoutex]

It is looking very probable that temps in SE TX will soar over 105f this weekend due to the NE air flow around Irene. Official high today was 102f, with the weatherbug site at 103f and here at the house 104.9f. Still at 102f. I will not be surprised if we go the entire month of August with highs at or above 100f. Today was the 34th official day at or above 100f here in Houston. Here at the house I didn't keep up well enough earlier this summer, but my guess is I've had 100f or above at least 50 days this summer.

[horselattitudesfarm]

Here is the latest long-range forecast discussion for the North Texas area, which means the same for all of Texas this summer (High pressure over NTX means we all cook):

UPPER RIDGE MOVES A BIT FARTHER WEST BY THE WEEKEND...AND A SHORT
WAVE MOVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MAY
BRING US SOME PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY. AGAIN...IT WILL BE A
GLANCING BLOW AND PROBABLY ONLY AFFECT AREAS IN NORTHEAST.

NO END TO THE TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS IN THIS FORECAST...IN FACT ECMWF
MOVES HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BACK OVER NORTH TX BY DAY 10. 84

[Flyinman]

Forcast 107 Friday, 106 Saturday and 105 Sunday!! Wow, it is going to be hot! One of my many concerns is our temps. were supposed to "peak" a few weeks ago. I know this is just an unfortunate combination of events bringing in this extreme heat this weekend, but hopefully this is our peak. I think I am going to Vegas for the weekend to cool off!

[vbhoutex]

Jeff's morning email:

Record to near record heat expected Friday-Monday
Heat advisory which has been in effect since the first week of August extended into the weekend.

Houston has now had 34 100 degree days in 2011 breaking the record of 32 in 1980. Hobby Airport has had 14 100 degree days in 2011 breaking the record of 13 in 1998.

Yesterday was the 23rd straight day in Houston of 100 degrees or above a new record (the 1980 record of 14 has been destroyed)

Discussion:

Upper level ridge centered over the SW US will begin to build back toward the east today and Thursday with mid level temperatures starting to rise. Weak disturbances on the eastern flank of the ridge may get close enough this afternoon for a few storms over our NE counties and possibly along the seabreeze, but general subsidence under the high pressure dome should keep coverage fairly isolated. By Friday the ridge will be back overhead, but the difference this go around will be the backing of the winds to the NE and NNE starting Saturday as a very weak cool front moves across the area. This will bring a very dry air mass southward over the weekend with dewpoints falling into the 50’s and possibly the 40’s over portions of the area. Significant heat events in SE TX tend to happen with this kind of setup with weak northerly surface flow and strong mid level warming.

Will trend afternoon high temperatures into the 103-106 range on Friday and then 104-108 range on Saturday and Sunday. It is possible that these highs could be 1-2 degrees too cool, and daily records for Friday-Sunday will likely be broken. The all-time high temperature for Houston is 109 in 2000, this should stand.

Fire Weather:

Weak winds and high humidity of late has kept fire weather concerns to a minimum however this Friday-early next week will feature an elevated fire weather risk across the entire region. Northerly flow developing over SE TX late Friday behind a weak cool front will lower dewpoints into the 40’s and 50’s over the weekend with afternoon RH falling to bone dry levels of 10-20% both Saturday and Sunday. Winds out of the NNE on average around 10mph will hold the seabreeze and high humidity levels near the beaches and offshore. Ground fuels are dead or extremely dry and will burn rapidly given KBDL numbers over 750 for nearly the entire area. Luckily at this time winds are expected to be fairly light which will help mitigate forward spread and allow any fires that develop to be brought under control. Should later model runs show an increase in the surface winds for this period a Fire Weather Watch or possible Red Flag Warning would be needed and the fire danger will move into the extreme category. Conditions are very similar to this past June which sparked several large rapid burning wildfires across the area, except winds are lighter and vegetation is even drier.

[vbhoutex]

Just heard on Channel Two that one of the models is calling for 109f starting on Friday. I hope it is wrong!!!

[Nikki]

The heat has been simply horrible! Here is a write up from Larry Cosgrove concerning some cooler temps and chance of some rain for our area.....fingers crossed!!!


http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-hous ... st-24-2011

[KatDaddy]

Even hotter temps Friday and Saturday?....109F IAH Friday!?

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE NUDGES CLOSER AND BELIEVE IT OR
NOT...EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. A CONVERGENCE OF DRY
AND SUBSIDENT AIR WILL LEAD TO INTENSE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY. THE NAM 12 2 METER TEMPS ARE PROGGED
TO REACH REACH 111 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AT CLL AND 109 AT HOUSTON. THESE
VALUES ARE NEAR THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH VALUES FOR THESE CITIES.
THE NAM 12 HAS BEEN THE PREFERRED MODEL OF CHOICE WITH REGARD TO
TEMPERATURES. WILL LIKELY EXPAND THE HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON
TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES MAY ACTUALLY BE LESS THAN THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE
BECAUSE OF THE LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. ISSUED A PNS EARLIER WITH THE
HIGHEST ALL TIME TEMPERATURES RECORDED FOR OUR FOUR FIRST ORDER
CLIMATE SITES.

[Flyinman]

A healthy complex of storms is moving South into Louisiana as I type. Would be nice to see this take a more westerly direction for once.

Just looked at the satellite and it does appear to be making a Southwesterd push. Nice to see storms this early in the day. Maybe, just maybe we might be lucky enought tp squeeze some rain out of this!