Texas Summer 2012

[somethingfunny]

Current Weather at Dallas, Texas
Temp: 78°F (26°C)
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 52%
Wind Speed: N 21.9 MPH G 33.4 (19 MPH G 29 KT)
Barometer: 29.96 in
Dewpoint: 59°F
Wind Chill: 78°F

Okay, I'm cold.

When's Summer coming back???

[Portastorm]

Funny!

OK, so gang ... was THIS the front we're talking about? Do we consider this one the first real front of the fall season, even though technically it is not fall yet? I'm inclined to say yes although I'm not 100% convinced. Thoughts? Comments?

[Tireman4]

Current Weather at Dallas, Texas
Temp: 78°F (26°C)
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 52%
Wind Speed: N 21.9 MPH G 33.4 (19 MPH G 29 KT)
Barometer: 29.96 in
Dewpoint: 59°F
Wind Chill: 78°F

Okay, I'm cold.

When's Summer coming back???

Ok, you are a laugh riot. Man oh man...LOL

[Ntxw]

I say yes Portastorm at least for us north texans. The drop from yesterday to this morning was 20-30 degrees and jogging this morning I felt it. The brisk north wind even gave me a lil 'wind chill' sensation! Sure feels like fall. Still howling out there right now.

[underthwx]

Cold front looks like it means business next weekend. I'm wondering if something spins up in the Gulf the following week as that front decays though.

its happened before

[Ntxw]

Latest CPC shows cool to mild weather for Texas in the meat of September. Euro has been following that train also. Not as certain about precipitation, at least our taste of fall should continue.

[Rgv20]

Some good light show outside my house!

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
738 PM CDT SAT SEP 8 2012

TXZ252-090115-
STARR-
738 PM CDT SAT SEP 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN STARR COUNTY...

AT 737 PM...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ABOUT 6
MILES NORTHEAST OF ROMA...OR ABOUT 7 MILES NORTH OF RIO GRANDE CITY.
THESE STORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO ANTICIPATED IN SOUTHERN STARR COUNTY. STORMS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY IS
INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP WITH THESE STORMS.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF STRONG WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL AS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

$$

JGG

[vbhoutex]

:uarrow:

Funny!

OK, so gang ... was THIS the front we're talking about? Do we consider this one the first real front of the fall season, even though technically it is not fall yet? I'm inclined to say yes although I'm not 100% convinced. Thoughts? Comments?

Not at all convinced except the temperature only got up to 87 today instead of our "normal" upper 90s. I'll pass further judgement after I see the temps tomorrow and Monday.

[weatherdude1108]

64 degrees according my thermometer at the Weatherdude1108 center right now in south Cedar Park.

Correction: 63.3 degrees

[vbhoutex]

:uarrow:

Funny!

OK, so gang ... was THIS the front we're talking about? Do we consider this one the first real front of the fall season, even though technically it is not fall yet? I'm inclined to say yes although I'm not 100% convinced. Thoughts? Comments?

Not at all convinced except the temperature only got up to 87 today instead of our "normal" upper 90s. I'll pass further judgement after I see the temps tomorrow and Monday.

HHMMM??? Working on "cool" maybe. 65f low this am. Definitely dryer air. If we hit the official prediction for tomorrows low I will declare a "real" cool front in W. Houston, not cold though.

[Ntxw]

Waco set a record low this morning. I've always questioned it's lows since it sits in a low area near the Brazos. I think they should consider adjusting since all the readings around it were upper 50s low 60s. Nonetheless it is a record reading. DFW was at 57.


SXUS74 KFWD 091332
RERACT

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
832 AM CDT SUN SEP 9 2012

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT WACO...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING AT WACO REGIONAL AIRPORT WAS
50 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW FOR SEPTEMBER 9...
54 DEGREES IN 1918 AND 2011.

THIS IS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE AT WACO SINCE APRIL 24. THE LAST
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT WACO WAS ON SEPTEMBER 10 OF LAST
YEAR...52 DEGREES.

$$

[weatherdude1108]

62.6 degrees before 7am this morning. May have gotten cooler, but had to leave. And it's technically still Summer!

Law of Averages

[Portastorm]

We have the same "problem" in Austin as referenced above in Waco. The airport is located in a river valley and low temps on mornings like today (strong radiational cooling) are skewed compared to what the rest of the metro area experiences. For example, KAUS set a record low this morning of 52 degrees. However, the bulk of the Austin metro area bottomed out in the low 60s ... roughly 8 to 10 degrees of difference.

I just don't think the temps at KAUS sometimes represent what is really happening area-wide. That being said, the other reporting station is Camp Mabry (KATT) which is located in west central Austin. I noticed during the summer that the urban heat island effect sometimes would add a few degrees to the recorded high as compared to what they experienced at the airport. Another interesting way to experience this is to drive up and down Mopac. If your car has an accurate thermometer, you will often notice that in the middle of the day, the area around Camp Mabry (which is on the west side of Mopac) is often hotter than area further north or south.

[Ntxw]

First half of Sept. -PNA and neutral NAO/AO will give us labor day heat. Nothing new right? Every year it seems . Isaac is the wildcard for wet in eastern Tx. CPC likes it warm and dry to start the month and I agree for almost everybody. I'm thinking a possible front by the 10th of Sept with a low swinging through the lakes to break the remaining ridge for us. Still seeing no direct tropical threats for Texas during that period from the Atlantic.

Was a few days off and a little too aggressive with the cold front. Did deliver morning lows though! Latest CPC output is cooler than normal for the central part of the country the second half of the month. The PNA is forecasted to rise positive, this supports the cooler idea. For Texas I think we get a cold front once a week chipping away at temps slowly. Euro and GFS agrees.

CFSv2 is hinting at a start of persistent wet conditions for the state starting late this month. Analogs point to this scenario. The 5h pattern for North America is shifting into an EPO-/-AO configuration later this month. This should translate into a likely wet/cold October.

[weatherdude1108]

We have the same "problem" in Austin as referenced above in Waco. The airport is located in a river valley and low temps on mornings like today (strong radiational cooling) are skewed compared to what the rest of the metro area experiences. For example, KAUS set a record low this morning of 52 degrees. However, the bulk of the Austin metro area bottomed out in the low 60s ... roughly 8 to 10 degrees of difference.

I just don't think the temps at KAUS sometimes represent what is really happening area-wide. That being said, the other reporting station is Camp Mabry (KATT) which is located in west central Austin. I noticed during the summer that the urban heat island effect sometimes would add a few degrees to the recorded high as compared to what they experienced at the airport. Another interesting way to experience this is to drive up and down Mopac. If your car has an accurate thermometer, you will often notice that in the middle of the day, the area around Camp Mabry (which is on the west side of Mopac) is often hotter than area further north or south.

I could not agree with you more Porta! The airport temperature is always cooler than the surrounding area. Mabry is always hotter than the surrounding area. Maybe they should take the average of the two stations and call that the temperature.

I've noticed that driving down Mopac, even I-35. The temperature rises 5-10 degrees in a matter of a few miles on a hot day near Mabry and downtown Austin. Maybe it's all of those high rises adding extra warmth. They need to plant more trees or have green roofs maybe(?).

[weatherdude1108]

First half of Sept. -PNA and neutral NAO/AO will give us labor day heat. Nothing new right? Every year it seems . Isaac is the wildcard for wet in eastern Tx. CPC likes it warm and dry to start the month and I agree for almost everybody. I'm thinking a possible front by the 10th of Sept with a low swinging through the lakes to break the remaining ridge for us. Still seeing no direct tropical threats for Texas during that period from the Atlantic.

Was a few days off and a little too aggressive with the cold front. Did deliver morning lows though! Latest CPC output is cooler than normal for the central part of the country the second half of the month. The PNA is forecasted to rise positive, this supports the cooler idea. For Texas I think we get a cold front once a week chipping away at temps slowly. Euro and GFS agrees.

CFSv2 is hinting at a start of persistent wet conditions for the state starting late this month. Analogs point to this scenario. The 5h pattern for North America is shifting into an EPO-/-AO configuration later this month. This should translate into a likely wet/cold October.

I'm liking your objective October forecast!

[weatherdude1108]

Hmmmm. What to do(?). What to do(?). What to do(?). Do I take my chances and plan on trimming the yard on Saturday, or do I trim the yard before Friday? Decisions decisions...
I'm just thankful there is a question on what the weather may or may not do this weekend.

FXUS64 KEWX 102030
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
330 PM CDT MON SEP 10 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A RETURN OF SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
COMMENCE OVERNIGHT...BRINGING GULF MOISTURE TO THE REGION. WE COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WE WILL RETAIN A 20%
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE MENTIONED AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT. AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND UPWARD TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO RISE
AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. WE WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF FOG FOR AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.

CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE
AIMED AT RAIN CHANCES AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE ABOVE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW AS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE SPEED OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODELS...WE WILL NOT
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. FOR
NOW... WE EXPECT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY. AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU. WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS VAL VERDE
COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTHWARD...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST GFS
SHOWS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH WHEN COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF...HOWEVER BOTH MODELS MANAGE TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION. RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR TO PEAK ON FRIDAY...THEN DECLINE ON SATURDAY
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS RUN. WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY DESPITE THE ECMWF SHOWING A LINGERING UPPER
TROUGH WEST OF THE REGION.

[Ntxw]

Latest GFS and Euro have some serious ridges off western North America/Alaska and western Atlantic. This could result in some potent chilly air masses for Sept straight down the plains into the southern plains.

Being that it is still late summer actual numbers won't be as impressive as they could be with the pattern, but the duration of cloudy/cool will come the next two weeks. Rain chances improve with it.



Though not unheard of it is not a usual Sept pattern

[Portastorm]

Glad you posted this, Ntxw. I was wondering when others would pick up on this. The GFS has shown this the last several runs and now the Euro and CMC are suggesting similar. That would bring some very "below normal" temps to Texas and the Southern Plains should it verify.

Ah ... now only if we can get this pattern to repeat in about three months!

[weatherdude1108]

First mention of "El Nino" I have seen in the discussion.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
336 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2012

.UPDATE...
/RESENT FOR CORRECTION TO PRELIMINARY NUMBERS/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2012/

DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER TX THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TO
REFLECT SOME OF THE POTENTIAL BENEFITS OF DEVELOPING EL NINO
CONDITIONS OVER THE PACIFIC FOR SEPTEMBER. MOISTURE RETURN
ACCELERATES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE SWRN US. THE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
TO EXPAND ON RAIN CHANCES OVER A BROADER PERIOD WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE A STRONG PUSH THANKS TO
CONTINUED UPSTREAM DIGGING OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE RESULT IS A
FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WHICH ARE
FIRST EXPECTED OVER WEST TX BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO OUR WRN
COUNTIES THURSDAY EVENING. MODEL VARIABILITY STILL EXISTS FOR
TIMING AND BEST RAIN CHANCES...BUT THE MODEL TRENDS OF INCREASED
UPSTREAM TROUGHING SUGGEST BEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN
COUNTIES INITIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE LATER PERIODS OF FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY FAVORING SOUTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES. GIVEN THIS
INCREASED TROUGHING TREND IN THE WESTERLIES...A SLIGHT MOISTURE TAP
WILL DEVELOP FROM THE UNSTABLE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICS WHERE NHC
IS PROJECTING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A DEPRESSION NEAR 14N 102W.INITIAL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT MAY NOT SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINS...BUT AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN AND CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE
UPPER TROUGH COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER A BROAD AREA
OF SOUTH TX THROUGH AT LEAST DAYTIME SATURDAY. FOR THE PERIOD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WILL TAKE AN
AVERAGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND EXPECT AREAL QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/4 TO
1/2 INCH WITH ISOLATED 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS.

ON SUNDAY THE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DRIER GFS IS
PREFERRED WHICH CARRIES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO E TX/LA. THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND A FAIR
AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE THAT COULD SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION
WHEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPS SE ACROSS TX NEXT TUESDAY.