Texas Spring 2018

[bubba hotep]

On the larger scale, we can tease out a few things about Friday by looking at the MJO & GWO. April MJO moving from P1 to P2 favors svr wx in East Texas with threat shifting eastward into the SE in P2. MJO P1 also sees a decrease in svr wx in West Texas.



Then GWO in P1 & P2 is also favorable for svr wx.



This combo points to a couple of svr wx days and probably also points to the faster positive tilted GFS solutions being wrong. However, it gives us little help in determining how much more the models might slow this system down other than it probably won't cutoff in the SW based on the pretty significant lack of svr wx in West Texas in MJO P1 in April.

[JDawg512]

It was chilly running the CAP10K yesterday in Austin!
But I managed to beat my best time by 8 minutes, despite temps in the 40s and cloudy. But I wore shorts and a long-sleeve shirt with a bandana. I debated between shorts and long exercise pants. The long pants would have been too warm, and I made the right call. All those people warmed it slightly, and I warmed up as I ran, even broke a sweat on my forehead about halfway through.

Of course it got sunny with highs in the upper 60s later in the day. Probably one of the colder 10Ks they have had in their history(?).

Congrats on running the 10K, I was considering signing up to run but decided to wait till next year as I am not quite ready and need more training.

59 degrees just before 1130a.m. Wondering if we will get into the upper 70s today depending on when the cloud deck breaks up.

[vbhoutex]

It was chilly running the CAP10K yesterday in Austin!
But I managed to beat my best time by 8 minutes, despite temps in the 40s and cloudy. But I wore shorts and a long-sleeve shirt with a bandana. I debated between shorts and long exercise pants. The long pants would have been too warm, and I made the right call. All those people warmed it slightly, and I warmed up as I ran, even broke a sweat on my forehead about halfway through.

Of course it got sunny with highs in the upper 60s later in the day. Probably one of the colder 10Ks they have had in their history(?).

Congrats on running the 10K, I was considering signing up to run but decided to wait till next year as I am not quite ready and need more training.

59 degrees just before 1130a.m. Wondering if we will get into the upper 70s today depending on when the cloud deck breaks up.

Congrats on the run JDawg!! An 8 minute improvement is impressive!!
You guys will have to run for this old dog no matter where it is. This old body won't handle it anymore.
BTW, has anyone found Spring? Apparently took a wrong turn Friday night and we haven't seen it since in Houston.

[bubba hotep]

From CIPS for Friday.

[Haris]

From CIPS for Friday.

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/SVRprob/201 ... ll_ALL.png

Do you personally think Austin area has a chance for some strong storms

[weatherdude1108]

It was chilly running the CAP10K yesterday in Austin!
But I managed to beat my best time by 8 minutes, despite temps in the 40s and cloudy. But I wore shorts and a long-sleeve shirt with a bandana. I debated between shorts and long exercise pants. The long pants would have been too warm, and I made the right call. All those people warmed it slightly, and I warmed up as I ran, even broke a sweat on my forehead about halfway through.

Of course it got sunny with highs in the upper 60s later in the day. Probably one of the colder 10Ks they have had in their history(?).

Congrats on running the 10K, I was considering signing up to run but decided to wait till next year as I am not quite ready and need more training.

59 degrees just before 1130a.m. Wondering if we will get into the upper 70s today depending on when the cloud deck breaks up.

Congrats on the run JDawg!! An 8 minute improvement is impressive!!
You guys will have to run for this old dog no matter where it is. This old body won't handle it anymore.
BTW, has anyone found Spring? Apparently took a wrong turn Friday night and we haven't seen it since in Houston.

Thanks! I had been running 3 to 5 times a week and did several practice 10Ks. But I think my VivoFit is off. It showed I went 5.42 miles in the same time period. I pushed start at the start and stopped it at the finish. So in thinking I had been training for 10ks, I had been training for longer runs than a 10k I guess.lol

Yeah, Spring has been kind of a ghost this year. I'm wearing my light long sleeve shirt to work today. Usually we're well into the 80s by now. Not complaining!

[bubba hotep]

[TheProfessor]

I'm not liking that map

[dhweather]

My vantage point on Friday.

[bubba hotep]

I'm not liking that map

Here is week 3 from the newest Euro Weeklies, you'll love this one lol

[Yukon Cornelius]

It was 39 years ago on this day, Tuesday, April 10th, 1979, the Red River Valley Outbreak produced 30 tornadoes. There were three main supercells. The first starting just south of Crowell at 3:05 p.m. This storm produced the tornado that devastated southeast Vernon and the tornado that caused severe damage to the southern portion of Lawton. Overall 56 people died.

Terrible Tuesday started with a deepening low near southeast Colorado. A warm front pushed north out of Central Texas with a low forming over Childress. There was plenty of moisture behind the warm front and a dryline formed.

The result was 30 tornadoes, two F-4 tornadoes, and the one known all too well to Wichita Falls residents causing 400 million dollars in damage, destroying over 3,000 homes, 1000 apartments, 140 mobile homes, 2 schools, over 100 commercial businesses.

The third of the three supercells produced the Wichita Falls tornado. The storm formed north of Abilene, tracked northeast, had a right turn as it produced the violent tornado many remember too well. At 6 p.m. the radar showed a classic supercell with a hook echo. The storm was well documented from the formation as it moved out of rural Archer and Wichita County and headed for Memorial Stadium and McNeil Junior High.

It quickly grew into a massive wedge with a damage path more than a mile wide. Ben Milam Elementary School was damaged. Cars were blown all around at the mall. An example of why you do not want to be caught in a car during a tornado. As the tornado moved into Clay County it became multi vortexed and caused damage near Dean and Byers.

According to the National Severe Storms Laboratory report by Don Burgess, 20,000 residents were left homeless, about 20% of the population.Inflation-adjusted the almost 900 million dollar disaster is the 10th costliest U.S. tornado on record. More than 40 died. According to the report, many people who took shelter in an interior room, low to the ground with mattresses and pillows may have been injured but they survived. Only five fatalities recorded were from inside a home. Many of the casualties came to those in cars.

The damage path of the Wichita Falls tornado was more than a mile wide and at the time was one of the biggest Ted Fujita said he had ever seen. We still look back on Terrible Tuesday for research. Damage from the Wichita Falls tornado was used to improve building construction and storm shelters.

It has been 23 years since a tornado death in Wichita County and almost 60 years in Clay County.

[wxman57]

I was part of a chase team out of Texas A&M that tried to get to that supercell. Never made it. By the time we hit Waco there was no way we'd get there in time. Good think we missed it. Dangerous tornado.

[Brent]

NAM barely out through Friday but has most of the action well east of us

[cheezyWXguy]

NAM barely out through Friday but has most of the action well east of us

Not completely sold on this yet. 0z nam held the trough slightly further back and kept it a little stronger, and the 6z continued this trend. If this keeps up, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the enhanced risk shift West to I-35 in later outlooks

[bubba hotep]

NAM barely out through Friday but has most of the action well east of us

Not completely sold on this yet. 0z nam held the trough slightly further back and kept it a little stronger, and the 6z continued this trend. If this keeps up, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the enhanced risk shift West to I-35 in later outlooks

I tend to agree, here is the current D3

[cheezyWXguy]

12z nam continues the trend, and is The first run that shows hints of afternoon initiation just west of dfw

[South Texas Storms]

12z nam continues the trend, and is The first run that shows hints of afternoon initiation just west of dfw

Not sure what you're seeing? 12z models so far have trended more progressive with the trough. Most show a band of showers moving eastward across the state Friday morning, with the thunderstorms holding off until far east TX during the afternoon.

[somethingfunny]

A few miles' difference in the position of initialization along the dry line will make or break a severe weather and rain forecast for the Metroplex..... This reminds me of countless events with the freezing line hanging around just close enough to make a winter forecast impossible.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z nam continues the trend, and is The first run that shows hints of afternoon initiation just west of dfw

Not sure what you're seeing? 12z models so far have trended more progressive with the trough. Most show a band of showers moving eastward across the state Friday morning, with the thunderstorms holding off until far east TX during the afternoon.

At 19z Fri on the 12z nam, i see a second, albeit weak, broken line of precip that was not there on prior runs.

[South Texas Storms]

12z nam continues the trend, and is The first run that shows hints of afternoon initiation just west of dfw

Not sure what you're seeing? 12z models so far have trended more progressive with the trough. Most show a band of showers moving eastward across the state Friday morning, with the thunderstorms holding off until far east TX during the afternoon.

At 19z Fri on the 12z nam, i see a second, albeit weak, broken line of precip that was not there on prior runs.

It still looks like the main severe risk area will be east of Dallas and closer to Tyler/Texarkana.

The trough will need to slow down for severe storms to fire closer to IH-35.