MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2449
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0611 PM CST WED NOV 16 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 170011Z - 170615Z
   
   ...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW RATES EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT WITH THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OF THE
   SEASON...
   
   LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND HAS DEVELOPED
   ACROSS ANTRIM/OTSEGO/MONTMORENCY COUNTIES IN NRN LOWER MI. LARGE
   SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE
   AREA TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT IN THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS TO
   NNW...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SWD MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT
   SNOWBAND BUT ULTIMATELY DISRUPT ORIENTATION. SHORT TERM MODEL
   GUIDANCE FROM THE 18Z/21Z RUC AND 18Z NAM SUGGESTS ONE OR MORE BANDS
   WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS EVENING INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT. HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD SHIFT FROM AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION
   TO AREAS SOUTH OF TRAVERSE CITY LATER THIS EVENING.
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND LOW LEVEL
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL ONLY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE GIVEN ONGOING
   STRONG COLD ADVECTION. SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE...RESULTING IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW BY EARLY THU MORNING.
   
   ..TAYLOR/PETERS.. 11/17/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...
   
   44088550 44138623 45178631 45428445 45168371 44488383

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2450
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0404 AM CST MON NOV 21 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN AND CNTRL FL PENINSULA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 211004Z - 211130Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST WILL
   BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
   
   AS OF 0950Z...TAMPA RADAR DATA SHOWED TSTMS INTENSIFYING FROM
   MANATEE COUNTY SWWD TO 60 W OF FMY...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING
   THE W COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA.  LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
   PRIMARY SURFACE LOW CURRENT EXISTS N OF CTY...HOWEVER CYCLOGENESIS
   IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER.  AS A
   CONSEQUENCE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA ARE
   GRADUALLY VEERING IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS TO THE
   NNE.
   
   RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INVOF ONGOING STORMS INDICATE WEAK LAPSE
   RATES THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...THOUGH
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F WERE RESULTING IN
   SBCAPES OF AROUND 900 J/KG.  LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE RUC AND NAM
   SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL GULF
   COAST OVERSPREADS MOIST WARM SECTOR.
   
   LOCAL VWPS AND FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE THAT LOW/DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF
   100-150 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF AROUND 35 KTS.  WHILE A
   BRIEF TORNADO OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   STRONGEST STORMS...IT APPEARS THE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE/VEERING WINDS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT A
   MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ..MEAD.. 11/21/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   29428324 29678276 29368159 28498142 27098153 26588199
   26848249 27748280 28968299

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2451
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0915 AM CST MON NOV 21 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 211515Z - 211715Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
   POSSIBILITY OF A WW FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS.
   
   SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY ALONG CAROLINA
   COASTAL AREAS...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF MYRTLE BEACH AND WILMINGTON.  AS
   UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY...LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MIGRATE
   NORTHEASTWARD ALONG COASTAL FRONT.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
   TRACK NEAR/ACROSS CAPE FEAR INTO THE MOREHEAD CITY VICINITY BY
   18Z...THEN ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND/OUTER BANKS AREAS BY AROUND 21Z.
   
   WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN STABLE OVER INLAND AREAS...WEAK
   DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IN WARM SECTOR...EAST NORTHEAST OF LOW
   CENTER...WHICH MAY SPREAD INTO COASTAL AREAS.  IF THIS OCCURS...DEEP
   FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED BOUNDARY LAYER
   BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ENVIRONMENT WITH SHEAR PROFILES
   FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO EXISTS...ALONG
   WITH THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS LARGE/HAIL.
   
   ..KERR.. 11/21/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...
   
   34097865 34487774 34897720 35707617 35887555 35567515
   35007520 34187642 33707746 33497804 33487844 33787865

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2452
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0249 PM CST MON NOV 21 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 873...
   
   VALID 212049Z - 212215Z
   
   CONTINUE WW.
   
   STRONGEST 2-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD
   ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND WILL LIKELY SHIFT OFF
   VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   THIS IS JUST AHEAD OF LEAD WAVE ALONG COASTAL FRONT...WHICH HAS
   FORMED A BIT FARTHER INLAND THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED.  WARM
   MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   ...JUST NOW ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN GULF STATES...IS INHIBITING
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER...SURFACE LOW CENTER WILL CONTINUE
   TO PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS
   IT PROGRESSES NORTH OF MOREHEAD CITY INTO THE OUTER BANKS AREA LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   IF BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORMS DO OCCUR...SHEAR PROFILES IN WARM
   SECTOR WITH CAPE TO 1000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH
   TORNADIC/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
   
   ..KERR.. 11/21/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM...
   
   34297789 35097786 35697700 36167638 36427581

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2453
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0701 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/FAR WRN MA...VT...NH...WRN/NRN ME
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 221301Z - 221800Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE ERN ADIRONDACK AND
   CATSKILL MTNS OF ERN NY THROUGH 16Z...WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY
   FALLING FROM 2000 FT TO AROUND 5O0 FT BY 18Z. FURTHER EAST...HEAVY
   SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER VT/NRN NH AND THE BERKSHIRE MTNS OF FAR
   NWRN MA BETWEEN 15-18Z...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO AROUND 1000 FT
   IN WRN VT/FAR NWRN MA BY 18Z. TOTAL DURATION OF HVY SNOW WILL LIKELY
   BE LIMITED TO LESS THAN 4 HRS IN THE CATSKILL MTNS...BUT COULD BE
   FROM 6-8 HRS IN THE ADIRONDACK...WHITE/GREEN AND BERKSHIRE MTNS. HVY
   SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS
   /ABOVE 1500 FT/ OF NRN/WRN ME. HRLY SNOWFALL RATES LOCALLY GREATER
   THAN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM AND
   UPPER LOW CENTERED IN SERN VA NNEWD INTO NRN VT. MODEST MID LEVEL
   FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WAS OCCURRING WITHIN THIS ZONE...ALLOWING FOR
   A FOCUSED 30-50 MILE WIDE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
   PER RECENT RADAR IMAGERY. CURRENT SNOW LEVELS OVER THE REGION WERE
   AROUND 2500 FT BASED ON 09Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 12Z REGIONAL
   SFC OBSERVATIONS AND 12Z CAR AND ALB SOUNDINGS.
   
   TWO FACTORS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVIER SNOW ALONG WITH
   LOWERING SNOW LEVELS THROUGH THE MORNING. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
   EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL OH NEWD TO THE LAKE ONTARIO AT 12Z WILL
   CONTINUE TO PUSH ESEWD AROUND 20 KTS...BASED ON RECENT TRENDS.
   THUS...DYNAMIC COOLING EFFECTS ALOFT WILL INITIALLY BE THE PRIMARY
   FACTOR ALLOWING FOR SNOW LEVELS TO GRADUALLY FALL THIS MORNING. WITH
   TIME...AS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ENSUES BEHIND THE FRONT...MORE
   DRAMATIC LOWERING IN SNOW LEVELS SHOULD OCCUR. MEANWHILE...A MID
   LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER OVER SRN NJ WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD
   THROUGH THE MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...IT WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING
   THE MID LVL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVER ERN NY AND WRN/NRN VT.
   ADDITIONALLY...A GRADUAL REORIENTATION TO NORTH-SOUTH OF THE MID
   LEVEL DEFORMATION CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS THE MOST
   LIKELY AREA TO RECEIVE THE LONGEST DURATION /6-8 HRS/ OF HEAVY SNOW
   WILL BE IN A NARROW ZONE /50 MILES WIDE/ OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
   WRN VT/FAR NWRN MA AND ECENTRAL NY THROUGH 19Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 11/22/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...
   
   47416920 46706930 45716972 44437079 43407201 42297316
   42097417 42107523 42427568 43097520 44017432 44617385
   45077337 45097157 45957025 46776992

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2454
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1220 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN NY / VT AND WRN NH / WRN MA
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 221820Z - 222245Z
   
   SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP AND RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MAINLY
   BETWEEN 18Z-19Z...BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH 23Z. SNOWFALL
   RATES OF 0.50-1.00 IN/HR ARE LIKELY.
   
   TROPOSPHERIC COOLING WILL CONTINUE ON BACKSIDE OF LOW AS IT SHIFTS
   SLOWLY NEWD...WITH N-S BAND OF DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SETTING
   UP OVER VT. INCREASING COLD ADVECTION/BACKING SURFACE WINDS WILL
   HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ALONG THE ERN CHAMPLAIN AND
   HUDSON VALLEYS AND INTO VT AND WRN MA...WHERE RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BETWEEN 18-19Z. RADAR TRENDS AS OF 18Z
   INDICATE 0.10-0.25 IN/HR LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES ARE
   POSSIBLE...SUPPORTING 1 IN/HR WET SNOW RATES.
   
   ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR IN THE VALLEYS...THE HIGHEST
   PROBABILITY OF HEAVY AND ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE IN THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OF VT WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER AND SNOW WILL BE MOST
   PROLONGED.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 11/22/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...
   
   45047142 43217218 42107312 42157353 43577386 45007376

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2455
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0439 PM CST WED NOV 23 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER MI AND NRN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...DEVELOPING HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD
   CONDITIONS
   
   VALID 232239Z - 240445Z
   
   MDT TO HVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP OVER
   UPPER MI BY AROUND 00Z...AND WILL EXTEND SEWD INTO NRN LOWER MI
   TOWARDS 06Z. SNOWFALL RATES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
   PERIOD...BECOMING HEAVY NEAR AND AFTER 06Z.
   
   VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES STABLE TRANSVERSE ROLL CLOUDS ARE ERODING
   ALONG THE N SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS OF 22Z...INDICATIVE OF RAPID
   COOLING IN SFC-700MB LAYER AND INCREASING LAKE RELATIVE INSTABILITY.
   RELATIVELY WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES OF 5-8 C AND STRONG NLY WINDS
   ACROSS THE LAKE SUGGEST LOW LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE WITH A
   LARGE SHIELD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FORMING QUICKLY OVER THE U.P. OF
   MI. GIVEN 0-1 KM MEAN WIND VECTORS OF 330/40KT...LONG EFFECTIVE
   FETCH INTO NRN MI...AND LAKE SURFACE TO 700 MB TEMPERATURE
   DIFFERENCES INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 30-35 C...PARTICULARLY HEAVY
   NW-SE ORIENTED BANDS OF SNOW APPEAR LIKELY...ESPECIALLY INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS. 4KM WRF-NMM MODEL RESOLVES MULTIPLE BANDS WITH
   HEAVIEST ACROSS ERN MARQUETTE...ALGER...SCHOOLCRAFT AND DELTA
   COUNTIES IN UPPER MI...EXTENDING SEWD TOWARDS TRAVERSE BAY INCLUDING
   ANTRIM AND KALKASKA COUNTIES...WITH OTHER BANDS INTO LUCE AND
   CHIPPEWA COUNTIES IN THE U.P.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 11/23/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...
   
   45948760 46808979 47288883 47448794 47098691 46918531
   46468434 45738403 45248384 44798406 44238496 44498587
   45378655

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2456
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1255 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER MI/NW LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
   
   VALID 240655Z - 241300Z
   
   ...MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS IN ADDITION TO 20-40 MPH WINDS...
   
   LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE NUMEROUS BANDS OF
   SNOW...NONE OF WHICH ARE PARTICULARLY WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS POINT.
   VAD WIND DATA FROM MARQUETTE AND UPPER AIR DATA FROM GREEN BAY
   INDICATE STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL NNWLY WINDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TO
   10-12K FEET BY 12Z. GIVEN CONTINUED STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND
   UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES...ONE OR TWO PLUMES MAY FORM WITH A
   FAVORABLE NW FETCH FROM NRN LAKE MI. IF THAT HAPPENS VERY HEAVY SNOW
   RATES ARE POSSIBLE...FROM 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR. LAKE RELATIVE
   CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
   OVERNIGHT...SO THUNDER SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 11/24/2005
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
   AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...
   
   45308725 46178885 47488857 47578755 46508494 44968327
   43828337 43288470 43278626

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2457
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0637 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE AND NCNTRL OH NEAR LAKE ERIE...NW INTO NCNTRL
   PA...WRN NY
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 241237Z - 241830Z
   
   ...SNOW RATES WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN OH NEAR LAKE
   ERIE INTO WRN NY...
   
   LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE INCREASED ALONG SRN LAKE ERIE INTO EXTREME
   WRN NY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH IS NOW MOVING INTO NW
   PA AND WRN NY. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
   RESULTING FROM WARM LAKE ERIE TEMPS /7-9 DEGREES C/ PER LATEST BUOY
   OBSERVATIONS AND VERY COLD TEMPS AT 850MB AND ABOVE. VAD WIND DATA
   FROM CLEVELAND SHOW A NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE...AND AS LOW
   LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY WITH TIME...FETCH WILL IMPROVE ACROSS
   LAKE ERIE. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ELONGATED CONVECTIVE PLUMES
   TO DEVELOP WITH SNOW RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. THE MOST
   FAVORED AREAS FOR HEAVY SNOW ARE FROM THE CLEVELAND METRO AREA EWD
   ACROSS LAKE/ASHTABULA/ERIE/CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN ADDITION TO
   NEIGHBORING COUNTIES INLAND. PRESENCE OF DEEP MIXED LAYER AND STRONG
   UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOWBANDS. HEAVY
   LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS WILL ALSO FORM ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO LATER
   TODAY.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 11/24/2005
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
   AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
   
   40558208 41548220 42258093 43307876 43247760 41907750
   40887829

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2458
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0638 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN UP OF MI...WRN/CNTRL LOWER MI INTO NRN
   IND
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
   
   VALID 241238Z - 241845Z
   
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CAPABLE OF 2-3 INCH/HOUR RATES WILL CONTINUE
   THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL RESULT IN
   BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
   
   REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS HAVE
   BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE
   CNTRL UP OF MI AND NRN LOWER MI WITH THE MOST IMPRESSIVE BAND
   CURRENTLY FROM APPROXIMATELY 65 NE MQT TO 20 SSE OF HTL.  HERE...A
   FAIRLY LONG FETCH HAS PERSISTED FROM N-CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR SEWD
   ACROSS NRN LAKE MI WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA COUPLED WITH LAKE
   TEMPERATURES OF 6-9 C ARE RESULTING IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   INDEED...INSPECTION OF 12Z APX SOUNDING INDICATED AN INVERSION
   HEIGHT OF AROUND 3 KM AGL WITH A 0-3 KM LAPSE RATE OF 8.5 C/KM. 
   
   GIVEN THIS FAVORABLY LONG FETCH...OPTIMUM INVERSION HEIGHT/
   CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
   THROUGH THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
   DOMINANT SINGLE BANDS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN UP INTO NRN
   LOWER MI THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.  FARTHER TO THE S...SLIGHTLY
   SHALLOWER CBL DEPTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH A COMPARATIVELY SHORTER
   FETCH SUGGEST THAT SNOW BANDS MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS...BUT LESS
   ORGANIZED THAN THOSE TO THE N. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER FAR SWRN
   LOWER MI INTO NWRN/N-CNTRL IND WHERE A SLIGHTLY LONGER FETCH/PARCEL
   MODIFICATION MAY RESULT IN BETTER BAND ORGANIZATION.
   
   ..MEAD.. 11/24/2005
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
   AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...MQT...GRB...
   
   41668654 43008686 45358730 46828796 47208720 47228591
   45218447 43178445 41988488 41398533

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2459
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1027 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 241627Z - 242030Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NEWD FROM MA...EXTREME S-CENTRAL NY
   AND SRN PORTIONS VT/NH THROUGH 21Z.  2 INCH/HOUR RATES SHOULD
   DEVELOP WITHIN 75-90 NM S OF CANADIAN BORDER ACROSS VT/NH AND NWRN
   MAINE. RATES LOCALLY MAY EXCEED 3 INCHES/HOUR...PARTICULARLY OVER S
   FACING SLOPES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT INTERCEPT OPTIMAL OROGRAPHIC
   ASCENT AMIDST 35-50 KT LLJ.  HEAVY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OVER ERN
   NY...WRN/CENTRAL MA...SRN VT AND INLAND PORTIONS CT/RI DURING
   PERIOD.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER ERN MA INVOF
   BOS...MARINE FRONT NEWD ALONG COAST TO NWRN BAY OF FUNDY AND INTO
   SERN NEW BRUNSWICK...SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT SSEWD PAST CAPE COD OVER
   ATLANTIC...AND QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS
   SRN CT INTO SERN NY.  SFC FREEZE LINE IS PACKED WITHIN COASTAL
   BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS COASTAL
   COUNTIES OF MAINE PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF SFC CYCLONE.  MODIFIED RAOBS
   AND FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENTIRE TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN OVER MOST OF
   VT...CENTRAL/NRN NH AND NWRN MAINE WILL REMAIN SUBFREEZING...BUT
   WITH INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT IN LOW LEVELS.  EXPECT INTENSE LOW
   LEVEL WAA REGIME -- NOW EVIDENT IN REGIONAL VWP -- AND MOISTURE
   TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE NW-NE OF SFC LOW AS LOW SHIFTS NEWD ALONG
   COASTAL FRONT. VEERING OF 850 MB FLOW WITH TIME WILL INDICATE SHIFT
   OF STRONGEST LIFT AND HEAVIEST SNOW POTENTIAL EWD FROM VT INTO NWRN
   MAINE...WHILE STRONG ISENTROPIC AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY SNOW THREAT.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 11/24/2005
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
   AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...
   
   46517000 46286930 45666861 45006847 44736914 44506975
   44187039 43497125 43317152 43597228 44097288 44787302
   45017300 45007151 45137142 45227142 45307125 45247116
   45357098 45217087 45387079 45427080 45427075 45387063
   45427063 45487072 45607062 45737036 45807040 45927024
   45957023 45977032 46077030 46147023 46217027 46357021

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2460
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1114 AM CST THU NOV 24 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER AND NRN LOWER MI AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
   VICINITY
   
   CONCERNING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW TRENDS
   
   VALID 241714Z - 242315Z
   
   HVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER ERN UPPER AND NRN LOWER MI
   THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH HVY SNOW SHOWERS OVER SWRN MI. FARTHER SE
   INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...MOSTLY SHOWERY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
   EXPECTED OVER NERN OH AND NWRN PA...WITH HEAVIEST INTO FAR SWRN NY
   DURING THE DAY...BUT ALSO INCREASING OVER NWRN PA LATE. IN
   ADDITION...ORGANIZED BANDING FEATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
   FROM LAKE HURON EWD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
   TOWARDS 00Z.
   
   VERY COLD AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPREAD SEWD WITH MOST RAPID COOLING
   NOW COMING INTO LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO AREAS. WHILE LOW LEVEL
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR HVY SNOW OVER NERN OH AND
   NWRN PA...WIND FIELDS ARE DIVERGENT AT MIDDAY...WHICH IS ALLOWING
   FOR DISORGANIZATION AND SHOWERS. SIMILAR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FARTHER
   N INTO THE BUFFALO AREA BUT WILL BE HEAVIER DUE TO LONG EFFECTIVE
   MOIST FETCH OVER LAKES HURON AND ONTARIO. THIS ENTIRE REGION SHOULD
   SEE AN INCREASE IN SNOW RATES BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS LOW
   LEVEL TRAJECTORIES BECOME MORE ORIENTED ALONG LONG AXIS OF LOWER
   LAKES...AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE
   POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED BAND OF HVY SNOW DEVELOPING OVER LAKE
   ONTARIO NEAR 00Z AFFECTING OSWEGO JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES IN
   NY.
   
   INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...ORGANIZED BANDS WILL PERSIST OVER NRN
   LOWER AND CNTRL/ERN UPPER MI WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
   DESPITE SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT. FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE E SHORE OF
   LAKE MICHIGAN...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED SNOW
   SHOWERS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 11/24/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...MQT...GRB...
   
   41018097 41517898 42097789 42387630 43357535 44317556
   44178075 44868310 46398493 47168594 46828754 46228766
   44388649 43468646 42398642 42178593 41958531 42908504
   43208505 43808495 43308370 42878107 42528062 42198166
   41608249 41258224

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2461
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0708 PM CST THU NOV 24 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LAKE ONTARIO VICINITY IN NWRN NY
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
   
   VALID 250108Z - 250715Z
   
   HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL PERSIST THROUGH
   THE NIGHT...AND MAY INTENSIFY AS WAVERS NORTH AND SOUTH DROPPING
   SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE
   LIKELY GIVEN SURFACE FLOW OF 20-40 KTS COMING OFF THE LAKE.
   
   DOMINANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND HAS FORMED OVER LAKE ONTARIO...IN
   PART DUE TO LONG EFFECTIVE FETCH EXTENDING WWD ACROSS LAKE HURON. AT
   THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS SWWD OUT OF QUEBEC TOWARDS GEORGIAN
   BAY. RUC MODEL INDICATES LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK A BIT AS THIS
   TROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW APPROACH...WHICH APPEARS TO BE HAPPENING AS
   RADAR SHOWS MAIN BAND LIFTING NWD ACROSS OSWEGO INTO SRN JEFFERSON
   COUNTIES AS OF 01Z.
   
   AS UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
   ENHANCED. DIURNAL LAND BREEZE SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE LIFT AS
   WELL...SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE SNOW BAND MAY STRENGTHEN AS IT SHIFTS
   SLOWLY NWD AFFECTING PRIMARILY JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES THROUGH
   ABOUT 06Z. AFTER 06Z...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER WITH
   PASSAGE OF SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH MAY BRING THE BAND BACK S
   PREDOMINATELY INTO OSWEGO AND SRN LEWIS COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 11/25/2005
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
   AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
   44307624 44337586 44317573 44057520 43737512 43417514
   43357562 43417617 43447652 43547769 43697824 43957802
   44187679

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2462
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0842 PM CST THU NOV 24 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WRN NY AND EXTREME NWRN PA NEAR LAKE ERIE
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
   
   VALID 250242Z - 250845Z
   
   SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS FAR WRN
   NY AND PERHAPS INTO FAR NWRN PA. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS MAY PRODUCE
   BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
   
   SURFACE FLOW REGIME HAS BEEN LARGELY DIVERGENT THROUGHOUT THE
   DAY...PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT BANDS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM
   FORMING DESPITE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL
   WIND PROFILES. INDEED...00Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWS 700 MB TEMPERATURES
   NEAR -30 C WITH 41 KT 0-1 KM MEAN WIND. THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS VERY
   DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.06 IN.
   
   ALTHOUGH COLD POCKET ALOFT DOES SHIFT EWD ALLOWING FOR SOME
   WARMING...IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN. BOTH
   RUC AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS HAPPENING OVERNIGHT.
   PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL BE THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
   CONVERGENCE THAT WILL OCCUR AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EWD OUT OF SRN
   ONTARIO. THIS...ALONG WITH DIURNAL LAND BREEZE EFFECTS...WILL LIKELY
   HELP TO CONCENTRATE AN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER THE ERN TIP OF LAKE
   ERIE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO NY AREA.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 11/25/2005
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
   AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...CLE...
   
   42028041 41868019 41817960 41897899 42197799 42437783
   42697783 42797808 42747909 42747966 42268025

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2463
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0803 PM CST THU NOV 24 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WRN NY AND EXTREME NWRN PA NEAR LAKE ERIE
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
   
   VALID 250203Z - 250800Z
   
   SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS FAR WRN
   NY AND PERHAPS INTO FAR NWRN PA. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS MAY PRODUCE
   BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
   
   SURFACE FLOW REGIME HAS BEEN LARGELY DIVERGENT THROUGHOUT THE
   DAY...PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT BANDS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM
   FORMING DESPITE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL
   WIND PROFILES. INDEED...00Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWS 700 MB TEMPERATURES
   NEAR -30 C WITH 41 KT 0-1 KM MEAN WIND. THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS VERY
   DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.06 IN.
   
   ALTHOUGH COLD POCKET ALOFT DOES SHIFT EWD ALLOWING FOR SOME
   WARMING...IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN. BOTH
   RUC AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS HAPPENING OVERNIGHT.
   PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL BE THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
   CONVERGENCE THAT WILL OCCUR AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EWD OUT OF SRN
   ONTARIO. THIS...ALONG WITH DIURNAL LAND BREEZE EFFECTS...WILL LIKELY
   HELP TO CONCENTRATE AN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER THE ERN TIP OF LAKE
   ERIE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO NY AREA.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 11/25/2005
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
   AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...CLE...
   
   42028041 41868019 41817960 41897899 42197799 42437783
   42697783 42797808 42747909 42747966 42268025

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2464
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0805 PM CST THU NOV 24 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WRN NY AND EXTREME NWRN PA NEAR LAKE ERIE
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
   
   VALID 250205Z - 250800Z
   
   SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS FAR WRN
   NY AND PERHAPS INTO FAR NWRN PA. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS MAY PRODUCE
   BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
   
   SURFACE FLOW REGIME HAS BEEN LARGELY DIVERGENT THROUGHOUT THE
   DAY...PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT BANDS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM
   FORMING DESPITE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL
   WIND PROFILES. INDEED...00Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWS 700 MB TEMPERATURES
   NEAR -30 C WITH 41 KT 0-1 KM MEAN WIND. THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS VERY
   DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.06 IN.
   
   ALTHOUGH COLD POCKET ALOFT DOES SHIFT EWD ALLOWING FOR SOME
   WARMING...IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN. BOTH
   RUC AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS HAPPENING OVERNIGHT.
   PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL BE THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
   CONVERGENCE THAT WILL OCCUR AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EWD OUT OF SRN
   ONTARIO. THIS...ALONG WITH DIURNAL LAND BREEZE EFFECTS...WILL LIKELY
   HELP TO CONCENTRATE AN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER THE ERN TIP OF LAKE
   ERIE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO NY AREA.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 11/25/2005
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
   AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...CLE...
   
   42028041 41868019 41817960 41897899 42197799 42437783
   42697783 42797808 42747909 42747966 42268025

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2465
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1242 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL ORE/ERN WA
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
   
   VALID 250642Z - 251245Z
   
   ...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
   COLUMBIA BASIN WITH AREAS OF FZRA...
   
   A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST...WITH A BROAD
   AREA OF PRECIPITATION THAT HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE OR
   SFC FRONT. INSPECTION OF THE 25/00Z SOUNDING FROM SPOKANE INDICATES
   AN INVERSION...WITH A WARM LAYER ABOVE 850MB AND A SHALLOW COLD
   LAYER NEAR THE SFC WHERE TEMPS ARE NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. WEAK
   WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE
   INVERSION. LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW AN INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION
   FROM LINCOLN CO SWD TO UMATILLA CO IN NE ORE. THIS MAY BRING A SHORT
   PERIOD OF FZRA TO AREAS NEAR AND S OF SPOKANE IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.
   
   
   WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...ADDITIONAL PCPN IS LIKELY
   OVERNIGHT. SFC WET BULB ZERO TEMPS ARE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS ERN WA
   AND PORTIONS OF NCNTRL ORE...AND SFC TEMPS WILL FALL TO 32F OR BELOW
   ONCE PCPN BEGINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA/ETAKF SUGGEST FZRA
   WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE SATURATION OCCURS. SOME OF THE HIGHER
   ELEVATIONS /ABOVE 2000 FEET/ WILL HAVE SNOW.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 11/25/2005
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
   AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...
   
   45901845 44311962 44372167 46622105 47892010 48251771
   48001700 46211702

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2466
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1050 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 260450Z - 260645Z
   
   ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS INCREASE IN
   INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SCNTRL TX.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NRN
   MEXICO WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE LOCATED NEAR THE RIO
   GRANDE RIVER IN SOUTHWEST TX. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD INTO SCNTRL
   TX...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AIDING THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD SLOWLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS
   THE REGION AS THE CAPPING INVERSION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
   AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES.
   
   AT THE SFC...ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM
   NEAR DEL RIO EXTENDING EWD TO THE HOUSTON AREA. SOUTH OF THE
   FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 60S F WHICH IS
   HELPING TO RAISE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE
   1000 TO 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...88D VAD WIND PROFILES AROUND SAN
   ANTONIO SHOW ABOUT 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE
   TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. INCREASING SHEAR AND
   INSTABILITY SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE
   ALTHOUGH MOST OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELL. THE STRONGEST CELLS
   MAY HAVE AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POTENTIAL MAINLY AFTER
   MIDNIGHT.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 11/26/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...
   
   27209821 27249895 27499948 27969954 28659952 29779932
   30079814 29689730 28279744 27419774

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2467
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1005 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SE TX...PORTIONS SWRN/S-CENTRAL LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 261605Z - 261830Z
   
   SLGT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WILL DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN
   GLS-LFT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
   ALONG WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OFFSHORE PORT MANSFIELD
   TX.  COMBINED FRONTAL ZONE AND OUTFLOW/CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY EXTENDS
   NEWD TOWARD GLS...THEN MARINE/WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED JUST OFFSHORE
   FROM CHAMBERS COUNTY EWD ACROSS COASTAL WATERS CAMERON/VERMILION/ST
   MARY/IBERIA PARISHES.  LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS ALONG AND BEHIND
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS COASTAL AREAS
   THROUGH AFTERNOON.  MARINE FRONT SHOULD DRIFT NWD INTO EARLY
   AFTERNOON AND MAY MOVE ONSHORE BRIEFLY BEFORE LEADING EDGE OF MCS
   MOVES THROUGH. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC-BASED
   BUOYANCY ALONG AND S OF MARINE FRONT GIVEN AND DEW POINTS MID 60S
   NOW OBSERVED IN THAT AIR MASS...AND COMBINED WAA/INSOLATION RELATED
   HEATING OF SFC TEMPS INTO LOW 70S.
   STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING/ASCENT REMAINS ALONG/BEHIND OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY...SO LAPSE RATES OVER MARINE AIR SHOULD REMAIN
   WEAK....LIMITING MLCAPES UNDER 750 J/KG MOST AREAS.  PARCELS N OF
   WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED BECAUSE OF PRONOUNCED
   STABLE LAYER NEAR SFC...KEEPING SEVERE POTENTIAL LARGELY ALONG/S OF
   FRONT.
   
   DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR -- NOW OPTIMIZED ACROSS UPPER TX COAST PER
   VWP/PROFILER DATA AND RUC ANALYSES -- WILL INCREASE WITH TIME
   FARTHER E ACROSS SWRN/S-CENTRAL LA AS MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION
   APCHS. ALTHOUGH HODOGRAPH SIZE IS LIMITED BY LACK OF DIRECTIONAL
   SHEAR IN LOW LEVELS...CELLS MAY ROTATE.  SUSTAINED SUPERCELL
   PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHER FOR TSTMS MOVING ONSHORE FROM GULF THAN EWD
   IN MCS BECAUSE OF SOMEWHAT MORE DISCRETE MODE.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 11/26/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
   
   28339545 29049506 29689460 30009391 29929233 29729162
   29479147 29319163 29169204 29059304 28789396 28149486

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2468
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0225 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA -- PRIMARILY S OF I-10
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 874...
   
   VALID 262025Z - 262230Z
   
   CONTINUE WW ALONG/E OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND.  THIS LINE AT 20Z
   EXTENDED FROM LCH AREA TO APPROXIMATELY 90 NM S OF COASTAL CENTRAL
   CAMERON PARISH...THEN SWWD OFFSHORE UPPER TX COAST.  THIS BAND WILL
   CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS COASTAL PARISHES.  BRIEF TORNADOES AND
   STRONG/POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS AND
   ACCOMPANYING MESOCYCLONES.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG I-10 FROM NW ARA TO
   NEAR MSY.  SFC TEMPS MID-UPPER 70S AND MID 60S F SFC DEW POINTS TO
   ITS S WILL OFFSET WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO YIELD
   250-750 J/KG MLCAPES OVER LAND.  EXPECT FRONT TO CONTINUE DRIFTING N
   ACROSS SERN LA AND COASTAL MS AREAS DURING REMAINDER
   AFTERNOON/EVENING...SPREADING MARGINAL SFC-BASED BUOYANCY INLAND.
   POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS IN BOUNDARY LAYER
   S OF WARM FRONT AND E OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND -- PRIMARILY OVER
   GULF...THEN MOVING NNEWD ONSHORE.  0-1 KM SRH 300-350 J/KG IS
   EVIDENT OVER COASTAL AREAS OF LA BETWEEN MCS BAND AND HUM...AIDED BY
   BACKED FLOW INVOF WARM FRONT.  ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
   WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS SERN LA...THEY SHOULD INCREASE WITH
   TIME AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED KINEMATIC GRADIENT
   ENHANCEMENTS APCH AREA.  THEREFORE PORTIONS SERN LA WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 11/26/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...
   
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